Patchy populations in stochastic environments: Critical number of patches for persistence

We introduce a model for the dynamics of a patchy population in a stochastic environment and derive a criterion for its persistence. This criterion is based on the geometric mean (GM) through time of the spatial-arithmetic mean of growth rates. For the population to persist, the GM has to be greater than or equal to1. The GM increases with the number of patches (because the sampling error is reduced) and decreases with both the variance and the spatial covariance of growth rates. We derive analytical expressions for the minimum number of patches (and the maximum harvesting rate) required for the persistence of the population. As the magnitude of environmental fluctuations increases, the number of patches required for persistence increases, and the fraction of individuals that can be harvested decreases. The novelty of our approach is that we focus on Malthusian local population dynamics with high dispersal and strong environmental variability from year to year. Unlike previous models of patchy populations that assume an infinite number of patches, we focus specifically on the effect that the number of patches has on population persistence. Our work is therefore directly relevant to patchily distributed organisms that are restricted to a small number of habitat patches.

THE ROLE OF EARNINGS PERSISTENCE IN VALUATION ACCURACY AND THE TIME HORIZON

ABSTRACT Based on the assumption that earnings persistence has implications for both financial analysis and compensation contracts, the aim of this paper is to investigate the role of earnings persistence assuming that (i) more persistent earnings are likely to be a better input to valuation models and (ii) more persistent earnings are likely to serve as a proxy for long-term market and managerial orientation. The analysis is based on Brazilian listed firms from 1995 to 2013, and while we document strong support for the relevance of earnings persistence in financial analysis and valuation, we fail to document a significant relationship between earnings persistence and long-term value orientation. These results are sensitive to different specifications, and additional results suggest that firms' idiosyncratic risk (total risk) is relevant to explain the focus on short-term outcomes (short-termism) across firms. The main contribution of this paper is to offer empirical evidence for the relevance of accounting numbers in both valuation and contractual theories in an emergent market.

Persistence characteristics in financial prices: evidence from the portuguese stock market returns

The objective of this article is to provide additional knowledge to the discussion of long-term memory, leaning over the behavior of the main Portuguese stock index. The first four moments are calculated using time windows of increasing size and sliding time windows of fixed size equal to 50 days and suggest that daily returns are non-ergodic and non-stationary. Seeming that the series is best described by a fractional Brownian motion approach, we use the rescaled-range analysis (R/S) and the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA). The findings indicate evidence of long term memory in the form of persistence. This evidence of fractal structure suggests that the market is subject to greater predictability and contradicts the efficient market hypothesis in its weak form. This raises issues regarding theoretical modeling of asset pricing. In addition, we carried out a more localized (in time) study to identify the evolution of the degree of long-term dependency over time using windows 200-days and 400-days. The results show a switching feature in the index, from persistent to anti-persistent, quite evident from 2010.

Dynamics of transmission of Trypanosoma cruzi in a rural area of Argentina: III. Persistence of T. cruzi parasitemia among canine reservoirs in a two-year follow-up

A new cross-sectional survey of household- associated mongrel dogs as well as follow-up of previously parasitemic individuals was carried out in 1984 toy means of xenodiagnosis and serologic techniques to get a deeper insight into the relationship of T. cruzi parasitemia and age among canine hosts in a rural area of Argentina. Persistence of detectable parasitemia was age-independent, or at most, loosely related to age, confirming the pattern observed in 1982. Similarly no significant age-decreasing effect was recorded among seropositive dogs in: a) the probability of detecting parasites in a 2-year follow-up; b) their intensity of infectiousness (=infective force) for T. infestans 3rd-4th instar nymphs, as measured by the percentage of infected bugs observed in each dog xenodiagnosis. Moreover, not only was the infective force of seropositive dogs for bugs approximately constant through lifetime, but it was significantly higher than the one recorded for children in the present survey, and for human people by other researchers. Therefore, and since T. infestans field populations show high feeding frequencies on dogs, the latter are expected to make the greatest contribution to the pool of infected vectors in the rural household of Argentina. This characteristic should be sufficient to involve canine reservoirs definitely as a risk factor for human people residing in the same house. The increased severity of parasitemia observed among dogs in this survey may be related to the acute undernutrition characteristic of canine populations of poor rural areas in our country, which is expected to affect the ability of the host to manage the infection.

The experimental granuloma: a hypothesis to explain the persistence of the lesion

Granulomatous inflammation is the morphological substrate of a variety of important infectious diseases such as tuberculosis, leprosy, schistosomiasis and others. Nevertheless, although many aspects of this special type of inflammation are known, fundamental questions concerning granuloma formation, persistence, fate and significance for host-parasite relationships still remain to be elucidated. In this brief review, the basic and more relevant literature related to experimental investigations on granuloma physiopathology is presented. Based on recent investigations performed in our laboratory showing that MDF (Macrophage Deactivating Fator) secreted by epithelioid cells and characterized as the calcium-binding protein protein MRP-14 deactivates activated macrophages, a hypothesis to explain the persistence of granulomatous inflammation is put forward

Persistence of specific antibody response in different experimental infections of mice with Toxocara canis larvae

Anti-Toxocara antibody production and persistence were studied in experimental infections of BALB/c mice, according to three different schedules: Group I (GI) - 25 mice infected with 200 T. canis eggs in a single dose; Group II (GII) 25 mice infected with 150 T. canis eggs given in three occasions, 50 in the 1st, 50 in the 5th and 50 in the 8th days; Group III (GIII) - 25 mice also infected with 150 T. canis eggs, in three 50 eggs portions given in the 1st, 14th and 28th days. A 15 mice control group (GIV) was maintained without infection. In the 30th, 50th, 60th, 75th, 105th and 180th post-infection days three mice of the GI, GII and GIII groups and two mice of the control group had been sacrificed and exsanguinated for sera obtention. In the 360th day the remainder mice of the four groups were, in the same way, killed and processed. The obtained sera were searched for the presence of anti-Toxocara antibodies by an ELISA technique, using T. canis larvae excretion-secretion antigen. In the GI and GII, but not in the GIII, anti-Toxocara antibodies had been found, at least, up to the 180th post-infection day. The GIII only showed anti-Toxocara antibodies, at significant level, in the 30th post-infection day.

THE PERSISTENCE OF LEPTOSPIRAL AGGLUTININS TITERS IN HUMAN SERA DIAGNOSED BY THE MICROSCOPIC AGGLUTINATION TEST

The persistence of agglutinins detected by MAT has created some problems to the interpretation of the results. The aim of this study was to examine the data of serology from 70 patients with serologically confirmed diagnosis of leptospirosis by during 3-13 months after being affected with leptospires in order to elucidate the interpretation of the persistence of agglutinins detected by MAT. Sixty-one patients sera (87.14%) had titers equal or greater than 800. Of these, two individuals maintained titers of 800 thirteen months after the onset. This study showed that only one sample of sera with high titers is not reliable to determine the time at which infection occurred.

The Persistence of Memory

This paper analyzes several natural and man-made complex phenomena in the perspective of dynamical systems. Such phenomena are often characterized by the absence of a characteristic length-scale, long range correlations and persistent memory, which are features also associated to fractional order systems. For each system, the output, interpreted as a manifestation of the system dynamics, is analyzed by means of the Fourier transform. The amplitude spectrum is approximated by a power law function and the parameters are interpreted as an underlying signature of the system dynamics. The complex systems under analysis are then compared in a global perspective in order to unveil and visualize hidden relationships among them.

Persistence of Vectobac WDG and Metoprag S-2G against Aedes aegypti larvae using a semi-field bioassay in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Persistence of Bacillus thuringiensis var. israelensis (Vectobac WDG) and methoprene (Metoprag S-2G) was evaluated against Aedes aegypti late third instar larvae of the Rockefeller strain in a semi-field bioassay. Tests were performed in Rio de Janeiro, using containers made of plastic, iron, concrete and asbestos, placed in a shaded area. The formulations used were 0.2 g of Vectobac-WDG and 1g of Metoprag S-2G per 100 liters of water in house storage containers. Vectobac WDG was tested twice, in March and in April/May, 2002. In March (temperature ranging from 21.5 to 39.3 ºC), 70-100% mortality was observed by the 7th day and declined abruptly thereafter. No significant differences were observed among the container types. In April/May (18.6 to 34.8 ºC) mortality was higher than 70% to 30-36 days in all cases, except in the iron container (40% mortality on the 12th day). Metoprag S-2G was evaluated in April/May, 2002, and induced mortality higher than 70% up to 15 days in the plastic and iron containers and only seven days in the concrete container. In the asbestos container, maximal mortality was achieved on day one post-treatment (66%). Our results point to a low persistence of both formulations in the weather conditions of Rio de Janeiro.

The pattern of immune cell infiltration in chromoblastomycosis: involvement of macrophage inflammatory protein-1 alpha/CCL3 and fungi persistence

Chromoblastomycosis (CR) is a subcutaneous chronic mycosis characterized by a granulomatous inflammatory response. However, little is known regarding the pattern of leukocyte subsets in CR and the pathways involved in their recruitment. The objective of this study was to assess the cellular subsets, chemokine, chemokine receptors and enzymes in CR. The inflammatory infiltrate was characterized by immunohistochemistry using antibodies against macrophages (CD68), Langerhans'cells (S100), lymphocytes (CD3, CD4, CD8, CD45RO, CD20 and CD56) and neutrophils (CD15). The expression of MIP-1alpha (Macrophage inflammatory protein-1alpha), chemokine receptors (CXCR3 and CCR1) and enzymes (superoxide dismutase-SOD and nitric oxide synthase-iNOS) was also evaluated by the same method. We observed an increase in all populations evaluated when compared with the controls. Numbers of CD15+ and CD56+ were significantly lower than CD3+, CD4+, CD20+ and CD68+ cells. Statistical analysis revealed an association of fungi numbers with CD3, CD45RO and iNOS-positive cells. Furthermore, MIP-1alpha expression was associated with CD45RO, CD68, iNOS and CXCR3. Our results suggest a possible role of MIP-1alpha and fungi persistence in the cell infiltration in CR sites.