When do adults learn? A cohort analysis of adult education in Europe. CEPS Working Document No. 383, 21 May 2013

Adult learning is seen as a key factor for enhancing employment, innovation and growth, and it should concern all age cohorts. The aim of this paper is to understand the points in the life cycle at which adult learning takes place and whether it leads to reaching a medium or high level of educational attainment. To this end we perform a synthetic panel analysis of adult learning for cohorts aged 25 to 64 in 27 European countries using the European Labour Force Survey. We find, as previous results suggest, that a rise in educational attainment as well as participation in education and training happens mostly at the age range of 25-29. However, investment across the life cycle by cohorts older than 25 still occurs: in most countries in our sample, participation in education and training as well as educational attainment increases observably across all cohorts. We also find that the decline with age slows down or is even reversed for older cohorts, for both participation in education and educational attainment. Finally, we can identify a Nordic model in which adult learning is achieved through participation in education and training, a Central European model in which adult learning occurs in the form of increasing educational attainment and a liberal model in which both approaches to adult learning are observable.

Statistical modeling and projections of lung cancer mortality in 4 industrialized countries

The purpose of this work was to model lung cancer mortality as a function of past exposure to tobacco and to forecast age-sex-specific lung cancer mortality rates. A 3-factor age-period-cohort (APC) model, in which the period variable is replaced by the product of average tar content and adult tobacco consumption per capita, was estimated for the US, UK, Canada and Australia by the maximum likelihood method. Age- and sex-specific tobacco consumption was estimated from historical data on smoking prevalence and total tobacco consumption. Lung cancer mortality was derived from vital registration records. Future tobacco consumption, tar content and the cohort parameter were projected by autoregressive moving average (ARIMA) estimation. The optimal exposure variable was found to be the product of average tar content and adult cigarette consumption per capita, lagged for 2530 years for both males and females in all 4 countries. The coefficient of the product of average tar content and tobacco consumption per capita differs by age and sex. In all models, there was a statistically significant difference in the coefficient of the period variable by sex. In all countries, male age-standardized lung cancer mortality rates peaked in the 1980s and declined thereafter. Female mortality rates are projected to peak in the first decade of this century. The multiplicative models of age, tobacco exposure and cohort fit the observed data between 1950 and 1999 reasonably well, and time-series models yield plausible past trends of relevant variables. Despite a significant reduction in tobacco consumption and average tar content of cigarettes sold over the past few decades, the effect on lung cancer mortality is affected by the time lag between exposure and established disease. As a result, the burden of lung cancer among females is only just reaching, or soon will reach, its peak but has been declining for I to 2 decades in men. Future sex differences in lung cancer mortality are likely to be greater in North America than Australia and the UK due to differences in exposure patterns between the sexes. (c) 2005 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Analysis of Sdhd and Mmp12 in an affected solar keratosis and control cohort

The incidence of Squamous Cell Carcinoma (SCG) is growing in certain populations to the extent that it is now the most common skin lesion in young men and women in high ultraviolet exposure regions such as Queensland. In terms of incidence up to 40% of the Australian population over 40 years of age is thought to possess the precancerous Solar Keratosis (SK) lesion and with a small, but significant, chance of progression into SCC, understanding the genetic events that play a role in this process is essential. The major aims of this study were to analyse whole blood derived samples for DNA aberrations in genes associated with tumour development and cellular maintenance, with the ultimate aim of identifying genes associated with non-melanoma skin cancer development. More specifically the first aim of this project was to analyse the SDHD and MMP12 genes via Dual-Labelled Probe Real-Time PCR for copy number aberrations in an affected Solar Keratosis and control cohort. It was found that 12 samples had identifiable copy-number aberrations in either the SDHD or MMP12 gene (this means that a genetic section of either of these two genes is aberrantly amplified or deleted), with five of the samples exhibiting aberrations in both genes. The significance of this study is the contribution to the knowledge of the genetic pathways that are malformed in the progression and development of the pre-cancerous skin lesion Solar Keratosis. © 2008 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC.

Low-dose aspirin and survival from lung cancer: a population-based cohort study

Background
Preclinical evidence suggests that aspirin may inhibit lung cancer progression. In a large cohort of lung cancer patients, we investigated whether low-dose aspirin use was associated with a reduction in the risk of lung cancer-specific mortality.

Methods
We identified lung cancer patients from English cancer registries diagnosed between 1998 to 2009 from the National Cancer Data Repository. Medication usage was obtained from linkages to the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink and lung cancer-specific deaths were identified from Office of National Statistics mortality data. Hazard ratios (HR) and 95 % confidence intervals (CI) for the association between low-dose aspirin use (before and after diagnosis) and risk of lung cancer-specific mortality were calculated using Cox regression models.

Results
A total of 14,735 lung cancer patients were identified during the study period. In analysis of 3,635 lung cancer patients, there was no suggestion of an association between low-dose aspirin use after diagnosis and cancer-specific mortality (adjusted HR = 0.96, 95 % CI: 0.85, 1.09). Similarly, no association was evident for low-dose aspirin use before diagnosis and cancer-specific mortality (adjusted HR = 1.00, 95 % CI: 0.95, 1.05). Associations were comparable by duration of use and for all-cause mortality.

Conclusion
Overall, we found little evidence of a protective association between low-dose aspirin use and cancer-specific mortality in a large population-based lung cancer cohort.

Anthropometric changes in the brazilian cohort of older adults: SABE survey (Health, Well-Being, and Aging)

The aim of the present study was to analyze the anthropometric changes in a home-based cohort of Brazilian older adults who participated in the SABE Survey, conducted in 2000 and 2006. A total of 1030 men and women were examined by age group: 60-69, 70-79, and ≥80 years. This representative sample consists of the survivors of the 2000 cohort. The following anthropometric variables were assessed: body mass, arm muscle, waist and calf circumferences, triceps skinfold thickness, body mass index, waist-hip ratio, and arm muscle area according to mean values and percentile distribution. Except for body mass and body mass index, a significant difference (P<0.05) was observed among the assessed anthropometric variables during the follow-up period. The older adults ≥80 years presented the lowest values. The reduction in the mean values of triceps skinfold thickness was greater (30%) than that of waist circumference (9%) and was more pronounced in women (21%) than in men (9%). Arm muscle circumference and area reduced by 8% and 19%, respectively, in men and 1% and 3%, correspondingly, in women. Our findings revealed reductions in the mean values for all anthropometric variables in the follow-up period from 2000 to 2006 among older adults. © 2013 Manuela Ferreira de Almeida et al.

Influence of birth cohort on age of onset cluster analysis in bipolar I disorder

PURPOSE: Two common approaches to identify subgroups of patients with bipolar disorder are clustering methodology (mixture analysis) based on the age of onset, and a birth cohort analysis. This study investigates if a birth cohort effect will influence the results of clustering on the age of onset, using a large, international database. METHODS: The database includes 4037 patients with a diagnosis of bipolar I disorder, previously collected at 36 collection sites in 23 countries. Generalized estimating equations (GEE) were used to adjust the data for country median age, and in some models, birth cohort. Model-based clustering (mixture analysis) was then performed on the age of onset data using the residuals. Clinical variables in subgroups were compared. RESULTS: There was a strong birth cohort effect. Without adjusting for the birth cohort, three subgroups were found by clustering. After adjusting for the birth cohort or when considering only those born after 1959, two subgroups were found. With results of either two or three subgroups, the youngest subgroup was more likely to have a family history of mood disorders and a first episode with depressed polarity. However, without adjusting for birth cohort (three subgroups), family history and polarity of the first episode could not be distinguished between the middle and oldest subgroups. CONCLUSION: These results using international data confirm prior findings using single country data, that there are subgroups of bipolar I disorder based on the age of onset, and that there is a birth cohort effect. Including the birth cohort adjustment altered the number and characteristics of subgroups detected when clustering by age of onset. Further investigation is needed to determine if combining both approaches will identify subgroups that are more useful for research.

An Analysis of UK Farmland : 1981-2004

The importance of agriculture in many countries has tended to reduce as their economies move from a resource base to a manufacturing industry base. Although the level of agricultural production in first world countries has increased over the past two decades, this increase has generally been at a less significant rate compared to other sectors of the economies. Despite this increase in secondary and high technology industries, developed countries have continued to encourage and support their agricultural industries. This support has been through both tariffs and price support. Although the average farm production property may require this support to maintain long-term production, the better farms can actually achieve production levels and commodity prices that result in these units being competitive on a free market basis. This paper will analyse the total return performance of UK farmland over the period 1981-2004. This analysis will compare the total return from rural properties in the UK and compare this performance to commercial property returns (total, office, retail, industrial), equities and gilts over this 24-year period. The analysis will be based on the IPD UK let land index and the IPD property index. The portfolio diversification and risk-reduction benefits of UK farmland will be highlighted. The analysis shows that rural property has negative correlations with equities and gilts, as well as insignificant positive correlations with retail, industrial and office property. Rural property also provides portfolio diversification benefits.

Adherence, adaptation and acceptance of elderly chronic heart failure patients to receiving healthcare via telephone-monitoring

Background: Although the potential to reduce hospitalisation and mortality in chronic heart failure (CHF) is well reported, the feasibility of receiving healthcare by structured telephone support or telemonitoring is not. Aims: To determine; adherence, adaptation and acceptability to a national nurse-coordinated telephone-monitoring CHF management strategy. The Chronic Heart Failure Assistance by Telephone Study (CHAT). Methods: Triangulation of descriptive statistics, feedback surveys and qualitative analysis of clinical notes. Cohort comprised of standard care plus intervention (SC + I) participants who completed the first year of the study. Results: 30 GPs (70% rural) randomised to SC + I recruited 79 eligible participants, of whom 60 (76%) completed the full 12 month follow-up period. During this time 3619 calls were made into the CHAT system (mean 45.81 SD ± 79.26, range 0-369), Overall there was an adherence to the study protocol of 65.8% (95% CI 0.54-0.75; p = 0.001) however, of the 60 participants who completed the 12 month follow-up period the adherence was significantly higher at 92.3% (95% CI 0.82-0.97, p ≤ 0.001). Only 3% of this elderly group (mean age 74.7 ±9.3 years) were unable to learn or competently use the technology. Participants rated CHAT with a total acceptability rate of 76.45%. Conclusion: This study shows that elderly CHF patients can adapt quickly, find telephone-monitoring an acceptable part of their healthcare routine, and are able to maintain good adherence for a least 12 months. © 2007.

Surgical resection for non-small cell lung cancer : clinical features and outcomes for a consecutive series at an Irish tertiary referral centre

Background: Few patients diagnosed with lung cancer are still alive 5 years after diagnosis. The aim of the current study was to conduct a 10-year review of a consecutive series of patients undergoing curative-intent surgical resection at the largest tertiary referral centre to identify prognostic factors. Methods: Case records of all patients operated on for lung cancer between 1998 and 2008 were reviewed. The clinical features and outcomes of all patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) stage I-IV were recorded. Results: A total of 654 patients underwent surgical resection with curative intent during the study period. Median overall survival for the entire cohort was 37 months. The median age at operation was 66 years, with males accounting for 62.7 %. Squamous cell type was the most common histological subtype, and lobectomies were performed in 76.5 % of surgical resections. Pneumonectomy rates decreased significantly in the latter half of the study (25 vs. 16.3 %), while sub-anatomical resection more than doubled (2 vs. 5 %) (p < 0.005). Clinico-pathological characteristics associated with improved survival by univariate analysis include younger age, female sex, smaller tumour size, smoking status, lobectomy, lower T and N status and less advanced pathological stage. Age, gender, smoking status and tumour size, as well as T and N descriptors have emerged as independent prognostic factors by multivariate analysis. Conclusion: We identified several factors that predicted outcome for NSCLC patients undergoing curative-intent surgical resection. Survival rates in our series are comparable to those reported from other thoracic surgery centres. © 2012 Royal Academy of Medicine in Ireland.

Gene expression analysis of diagnostic biopsies predicts pathological response to neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy of esophageal cancer

OBJECTIVE: This study explored gene expression differences in predicting response to chemoradiotherapy in esophageal cancer. PURPOSE:: A major pathological response to neoadjuvant chemoradiation is observed in about 40% of esophageal cancer patients and is associated with favorable outcomes. However, patients with tumors of similar histology, differentiation, and stage can have vastly different responses to the same neoadjuvant therapy. This dichotomy may be due to differences in the molecular genetic environment of the tumor cells. BACKGROUND DATA: Diagnostic biopsies were obtained from a training cohort of esophageal cancer patients (13), and extracted RNA was hybridized to genome expression microarrays. The resulting gene expression data was verified by qRT-PCR. In a larger, independent validation cohort (27), we examined differential gene expression by qRT-PCR. The ability of differentially-regulated genes to predict response to therapy was assessed in a multivariate leave-one-out cross-validation model. RESULTS: Although 411 genes were differentially expressed between normal and tumor tissue, only 103 genes were altered between responder and non-responder tumor; and 67 genes differentially expressed >2-fold. These included genes previously reported in esophageal cancer and a number of novel genes. In the validation cohort, 8 of 12 selected genes were significantly different between the response groups. In the predictive model, 5 of 8 genes could predict response to therapy with 95% accuracy in a subset (74%) of patients. CONCLUSIONS: This study has identified a gene microarray pattern and a set of genes associated with response to neoadjuvant chemoradiation in esophageal cancer. The potential of these genes as biomarkers of response to treatment warrants further investigation. Copyright © 2009 by Lippincott Williams & Wilkins.

Prognostic value of TP53, KRAS and EGFR mutations in nonsmall cell lung cancer : the EUELC cohort

Nonsmall cell lung cancer samples from the European Early Lung Cancer biobank were analysed to assess the prognostic significance of mutations in the TP53, KRAS and EGFR genes. The series included 11 never-smokers, 86 former smokers, 152 current smokers and one patient without informed smoking status. There were 110 squamous cell carcinomas (SCCs), 133 adenocarcinomas (ADCs) and seven large cell carcinomas or mixed histologies. Expression of p53 was analysed by immunohistochemistry. DNA was extracted from frozen tumour tissues. TP53 mutations were detected in 48.8% of cases and were more frequent among SCCs than ADCs (p<0.0001). TP53 mutation status was not associated with prognosis. G to T transversions, known to be associated with smoking, were marginally more common among patients who developed a second primary lung cancer or recurrence/metastasis (progressive disease). EGFR mutations were almost exclusively found in never-smoking females (p=0.0067). KRAS mutations were detected in 18.5% of cases, mainly ADC (p<0.0001), and showed a tendency toward association with progressive disease status. These results suggest that mutations are good markers of different aetiologies and histopathological forms of lung cancers but have little prognostic value, with the exception of KRAS mutation, which may have a prognostic value in ADC. Copyright©ERS 2012.

Toxicity profile of the immunomodulatory thalidomide analogue, lenalidomide : Phase I clinical trial of three dosing schedules in patients with solid malignancies

Thalidomide is an anti-angiogenic agent currently used to treat patients with malignant cachexia or multiple myeloma. Lenalidomide (CC-5013) is an immunomodulatory thalidomide analogue licensed in the United States of America (USA) for the treatment of a subtype of myelodysplastic syndrome. This two-centre, open-label phase I study evaluated dose-limiting toxicities in 55 patients with malignant solid tumours refractory to standard chemotherapies. Lenalidomide capsules were consumed once daily for 12 weeks according to one of the following three schedules: (I) 25 mg daily for the first 7 d, the daily dose increased by 25 mg each week up to a maximum daily dose of 150 mg; (II) 25 mg daily for 21 d followed by a 7-d rest period, the 4-week cycle repeated for 3 cycles; (III) 10 mg daily continuously. Twenty-six patients completed the study period. Two patients experienced a grade 3 hypersensitivity rash. Four patients in cohort I and 4 patients in cohort II suffered grade 3 or 4 neutropaenia. In 2 patients with predisposing medical factors, grade 3 cardiac dysrhythmia was recorded. Grade 1 neurotoxicity was detected in 6 patients. One complete and two partial radiological responses were measured by computed tomography scanning; 8 patients had stable disease after 12 weeks of treatment. Fifteen patients remained on treatment as named patients; 1 with metastatic melanoma remains in clinical remission 3.5 years from trial entry. This study indicates the tolerability and potential clinical efficacy of lenalidomide in patients with advanced solid tumours who have previously received multi-modality treatment. Depending on the extent of myelosuppressive pre-treatment, dose schedules (II) or (III) are advocated for large-scale trials of long-term administration. © 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Possible impact of human CYP2E1 polymorphisms on the metabolism of acrylonitrile

Case reports of human accidental poisonings point to significant individual differences in human acrylonitrile metabolism and toxicity. A cohort of 59 persons with industrial handling of low levels of acrylonitrile has repetitively been studied from 1994 through 1999 as part of a medical surveillance programme. The analyses included adduct determinations of N-terminal N-(cyanoethyl)valine in haemoglobin and genotypings of the following cytochrome P-450 2E1 (CYP2E1) polymorphisms: G-1259C and C-1019T (two subjects heterozygous), A-316G (three subjects heterozygous), T-297A (15 subjects heterozygous), G-35T (eight subjects heterozygous), G4804A (two subjects heterozygous), T7668A (six subjects heterozygous). N-(Cyanoethyl)valine adduct levels were, if any, only slightly influenced by smoking and mainly determined by the external acrylonitrile exposures. The individual means and medians of N-(cyanoethyl)valine levels over the entire observation period were compared with the CYP2E1 variants (Wilcoxon rank sum test). No influences of the investigated CYP2E1 polymorphisms on the N-(cyanoethyl)valine levels appeared at the 5% level. However, there was a trend, at a level of P≃0.1, pointing to higher acrylonitrile-specific adduct levels in persons with the A-316G mutation. Higher adduct levels would be compatible with a slower CYP2E1-mediated metabolism of acrylonitrile and with lower extents of toxification to cyanide.

Genetic determinants of heel bone properties: Genome-wide association meta-analysis and replication in the GEFOS/GENOMOS consortium

Quantitative ultrasound of the heel captures heel bone properties that independently predict fracture risk and, with bone mineral density (BMD) assessed by X-ray (DXA), may be convenient alternatives for evaluating osteoporosis and fracture risk. We performed a meta-analysis of genome-wide association (GWA) studies to assess the genetic determinants of heel broadband ultrasound attenuation (BUA; n 5 14 260), velocity of sound (VOS; n 5 15 514) and BMD (n 5 4566) in 13 discovery cohorts. Independent replication involved seven cohorts with GWA data (in silico n 5 11 452) and new genotyping in 15 cohorts (de novo n 5 24 902). In combined random effects, meta-analysis of the discovery and replication cohorts, nine single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) had genome-wide significant (P < 5 3 108) associations with heel bone properties. Alongside SNPs within or near previously identified osteoporosis susceptibility genes including ESR1 (6q25.1: rs4869739, rs3020331, rs2982552), SPTBN1 (2p16.2: rs11898505), RSPO3 (6q22.33: rs7741021), WNT16 (7q31.31: rs2908007), DKK1 (10q21.1: rs7902708) and GPATCH1 (19q13.11: rs10416265), we identified a new locus on chromosome 11q14.2 (rs597319 close to TMEM135, a gene recently linked to osteoblastogenesis and longevity) significantly associated with both BUA and VOS (P < 8.23 3 1014). In meta-analyses involving 25 cohorts with up to 14 985 fracture cases, six of 10 SNPs associated with heel bone properties at P < 5 3 106 also had the expected direction of association with any fracture (P < 0.05), including threeSNPswithP < 0.005: 6q22.33 (rs7741021), 7q31.31 (rs2908007) and 10q21.1 (rs7902708). In conclusion, thisGWAstudy reveals the effect of several genescommon to central DXA-derivedBMDand heel ultrasound/DXAmeasures and points to anewgenetic locus with potential implications for better understanding of osteoporosis pathophysiology.