Convective patterns under the Indo-Atlantic << box >>

Using fluid mechanics, we reinterpret the mantle images obtained from global and regional tomography together with geochemical, geological and paleomagnetic observations, and attempt to unravel the pattern of convection in the Indo-Atlantic "box" and its temporal evolution over the last 260 Myr. The << box >> presently contains a) a broad slow seismic anomaly at the CMB which has a shape similar to Pangea 250 Myr ago, and which divides into several branches higher in the lower mantle, b) a "superswell, centered on the western edge of South Africa, c) at least 6 "primary hotspots" with long tracks related to traps, and d) numerous smaller hotspots. In the last 260 Myr, this mantle box has undergone 10 trap events, 7 of them related to continental breakup. Several of these past events are spatially correlated with present-day seismic anomalies and/or upwellings. Laboratory experiments show that superswells, long-lived hotspot tracks and traps may represent three evolutionary stages of the same phenomenon, i.e. episodic destabilization of a hot, chemically heterogeneous thermal boundary layer, close to the bottom of the mantle. When scaled to the Earth's mantle, its recurrence time is on the order of 100-200 Myr. At any given time, the Indo-Atlantic box should contain 3 to 9 of these instabilities at different stages of their development, in agreement with observations. The return flow of the downwelling slabs, although confined to two main << boxes >> (Indo-Atlantic and Pacific) by subduction zone geometry, may therefore not be passive, but rather take the form of active thermochemical instabilities. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Reinforcement Learning Based on the Bayesian Theorem for Electricity Markets Decision Support

This paper presents the applicability of a reinforcement learning algorithm based on the application of the Bayesian theorem of probability. The proposed reinforcement learning algorithm is an advantageous and indispensable tool for ALBidS (Adaptive Learning strategic Bidding System), a multi-agent system that has the purpose of providing decision support to electricity market negotiating players. ALBidS uses a set of different strategies for providing decision support to market players. These strategies are used accordingly to their probability of success for each different context. The approach proposed in this paper uses a Bayesian network for deciding the most probably successful action at each time, depending on past events. The performance of the proposed methodology is tested using electricity market simulations in MASCEM (Multi-Agent Simulator of Competitive Electricity Markets). MASCEM provides the means for simulating a real electricity market environment, based on real data from real electricity market operators.

Integrated management systems as complex adaptive systems

It is a difficult task to avoid the “smart systems” topic when discussing smart prevention and, similarly, it is a difficult task to address smart systems without focusing their ability to learn. Following the same line of thought, in the current reality, it seems a Herculean task (or an irreparable omission) to approach the topic of certified occupational health and safety management systems (OHSMS) without discussing the integrated management systems (IMSs). The available data suggest that seldom are the OHSMS operating as the single management system (MS) in a company so, any statement concerning OHSMS should mainly be interpreted from an integrated perspective. A major distinction between generic systems can be drawn between those that learn, i.e., those systems that have “memory” and those that have not. These former systems are often depicted as adaptive since they take into account past events to deal with novel, similar and future events modifying their structure to enable success in its environment. Often, these systems, present a nonlinear behavior and a huge uncertainty related to the forecasting of some events. This paper seeks to portray, for the first time as we were able to find out, the IMSs as complex adaptive systems (CASs) by listing their properties and dissecting the features that enable them to evolve and self-organize in order to, holistically, fulfil the requirements from different stakeholders and thus thrive by assuring the successful sustainability of a company. Based on the revision of literature carried out, this is the first time that IMSs are pointed out as CASs which may develop fruitful synergies both for the MSs and for CASs communities. By performing a thorough revision of literature and based on some concepts embedded in the “DNA” of the subsystems implementation standards it is intended, specifically, to identify, determine and discuss the properties of a generic IMS that should be considered to classify it as a CAS.

Debris flow hazard modelling on medium scale: Valtellina di Tirano, Italy

Debris flow hazard modelling at medium (regional) scale has been subject of various studies in recent years. In this study, hazard zonation was carried out, incorporating information about debris flow initiation probability (spatial and temporal), and the delimitation of the potential runout areas. Debris flow hazard zonation was carried out in the area of the Consortium of Mountain Municipalities of Valtellina di Tirano (Central Alps, Italy). The complexity of the phenomenon, the scale of the study, the variability of local conditioning factors, and the lacking data limited the use of process-based models for the runout zone delimitation. Firstly, a map of hazard initiation probabilities was prepared for the study area, based on the available susceptibility zoning information, and the analysis of two sets of aerial photographs for the temporal probability estimation. Afterwards, the hazard initiation map was used as one of the inputs for an empirical GIS-based model (Flow-R), developed at the University of Lausanne (Switzerland). An estimation of the debris flow magnitude was neglected as the main aim of the analysis was to prepare a debris flow hazard map at medium scale. A digital elevation model, with a 10 m resolution, was used together with landuse, geology and debris flow hazard initiation maps as inputs of the Flow-R model to restrict potential areas within each hazard initiation probability class to locations where debris flows are most likely to initiate. Afterwards, runout areas were calculated using multiple flow direction and energy based algorithms. Maximum probable runout zones were calibrated using documented past events and aerial photographs. Finally, two debris flow hazard maps were prepared. The first simply delimits five hazard zones, while the second incorporates the information about debris flow spreading direction probabilities, showing areas more likely to be affected by future debris flows. Limitations of the modelling arise mainly from the models applied and analysis scale, which are neglecting local controlling factors of debris flow hazard. The presented approach of debris flow hazard analysis, associating automatic detection of the source areas and a simple assessment of the debris flow spreading, provided results for consequent hazard and risk studies. However, for the validation and transferability of the parameters and results to other study areas, more testing is needed.

Low dispersing species : population genetic processes in space and time : the genus "Trochulus" (Gastropoda: Hygromiidae) as a case study

RÉSUMÉ Une espèce est rarement composée d'une population unique. Parce que les individus ont des capacités de dispersion limitées et que les paysages sont des mosaïques d'habitats, la plupart des espèces sont plutôt composées de sous-populations connectées par la migration. Cette variation spatiale influence directement la distribution de la variabilité génétique dans et entre les populations. Durant ce travail, nous avons abordé certains des processus populationnels qui ont joué un rôle supposé dans l'apparition de nouvelles espèces au sein du genre Trochulus. Plus précisément, nous avons tenté d'évaluer les impacts respectifs de l'isolement passé (facteurs historiques) et présent (facteurs locaux). Nous avons d'abord pu montrer que les faibles capacités de dispersion des escargots terrestres ont directement influencé leur histoire évolutive à toutes les échelles spatiales et temporelles. En réduisant l'effet homogénéisant de la migration, une faible dispersion maintient dans les populations les traces génétiques d'évènements passés. A l'échelle de la distribution globale de Trochulus villosus, ces traces ont permis de reconstruire une histoire faite d'isolements et d'expansions de populations. En combinant des données génétiques avec une modélisation de la niche climatique passée, il a été possible de proposer un scénario significativement meilleur que toutes les hypothèses alternatives que nous avons testées. A l'échelle locale par contre, l'héritage historique est difficile à distinguer de la dynamique actuelle. Ce fut le cas des lignées mitochondriales du complexe sericeus-hispidus : les deux principales lignées étaient phylogénétiquement éloignées, avaient eu des démographies passées différentes et corrélaient avec des différences morphologiques. D'un autre côté, le flux de gène nucléaire était fort, contredisant l'idée de deux espèces cryptiques isolées reproductivement. Pour pouvoir conclure à la présence ou non de deux espèces, il nous a manqué des informations locales sur la dynamique des populations et les conditions écologiques que l'on trouve dans la région d'étude. Enfin, nous avons pu souligner que la connectivité entre populations d'escargots est soumise à la qualité des habitats et à leur organisation spatiale. Les escargots sont dépendants d'un habitat et s'y adaptent, comme l'indiquent la présence de «poils » uniquement sur la coquille d'espèces vivant dans des habitats humides ou la corrélation entre morphologie et habitat au sein du complexe sericeus-hispidus. Logiquement donc, les escargots migrent préférentiellement au travers d'habitats favorables comme l'a montré la réduction de flux de gènes au travers des prairies chez T. villosus (une espèce forestière). De ces données, nous pouvons supposer que les populations d'escargots en particulier, et des espèces à faible dispersion en général, ont de fortes chances d'être affectées par les changements climatiques, avec de probables implications pour leurs histoires évolutives. SUMMARY : Species rarely consists in a single population. Because individuals have limited dispersal abilities, because landscapes are habitat patchworks, most species are made of several subpopulations connected by migration. This spatial variation has consequences on the distribution of genetic diversity within and between populations, creating a structure among the populations. During the present work, we investigated some of the population processes assumed to have played an important role on the speciation within the genus Trochulus. More specifically, we questioned the respective impacts of past (historical factors) or present (local factors) population isolations. We first could show that the poor dispersal abilities of land snails have had profound impacts on their evolutionary histories at all spatial and temporal scales. Low dispersal maintains a strong signature of past events in the populations by minimising the homogenising effects of geneflow. At the scale of Trochulus villosus global distribution, they allowed to retrieve the detailed history of this species population isolations and expansions. Combining a large genetic dataset with paleo-climatic niche modelling ended up with a historical scenario significantly better than all traditional alternatives we tested. At local scale on the contrary, past events become difficult to tease apart from ongoing processes. This was the case for the divergent mitochondria) lineages within the sericeus-hispidus complex: the two principal lineages appeared to be phylogenetically distant, to have experienced different demographic histories and to correlate with morphological differences. On the other hand, nuclear (present day) geneflow was high, contradicting the idea of two reproductively isolated cryptic species. Information on the local population dynamics and environmental conditions are lacking to be able to decide whether past isolation has indeed resulted here in new species. Finally, we emphasised the importance of the habitat types present in a landscape as well as their spatial organisation for the population connectivity of land snails. These species are tightly dependent on a habitat and adapt to it as shown by thé occurrence of hair-like structures only in species living in humid environments or by the correlation between shell morphology and habitat in the sericeus-hispidus complex. As a result, land snails preferentially migrate through favourable habitats: Trochulus villosus, a forest species, had its geneflow significantly reduced across meadows. From these data, we can hypothesise that the populations of land snails in particular and of low dispersing species in general are likely to be strongly affected by the ongoing climate changes, with potential major consequences on their evolutionary histories.

Phylogeography of Mabuya maculilabris (Reptilia) from São Tomé Island (Gulf of Guinea) inferred from mtDNA sequences

The pattern of genetic variation of the lizard Mabuya maculilabris from São Tomé Island (Gulf of Guinea) was investigated using a combination of three mitochondrial DNA gene fragments. Forty-eight haplotypes were recovered among 66 individuals covering the whole island. The genealogy inferred from the most parsimonious network of haplotypes allows us to detect two main and long branches departing from the putative group of oldest haplotypes. The tips of these branches exhibit star-like phylogenies, which may indicate of recently expanded populations, most probably from a small number of founders. A nested clade analysis suggests a complex pattern of past events that gave rise to the extant geographical pattern found in the haplotype distribution: past and allopatric fragmentation, range expansion, restricted gene Xow and long-distance dispersal. These results are consistent with the complex geological history of the island where important volcanic activity with extensive lava Xows has occurred during several periods. Mismatch- distribution analysis and AMOVA also support these conclusions. Substantial genetic structuring among these lizards was detected as well as high levels of diVerentiation between the southern edge populations (particularly those from the Rolas Islet) and the remaining ones. However, variation is low relative to the geological age of the island. Our results indicate that patterns of variation observed in reptiles in other oceanic islands are not indicative of those observed in the islands of the Gulf of Guinea.

Dendrochronological study of the avalanche path Canal del Roc Roig: first results of the ALUDEX Project in the Pyrenees

Historical data about ancient avalanches are scarce in the Pyrenees. Dendrochronology can provide new data about past avalanches and their return period, but up to now little research has been carried out with this purpose. The Aludex project aims to obtain information about the frequency and extent of extreme avalanches, using a dendrochronological and a nivo-meteorological approach. In this paper, we present the results of a dendrochronological study of the Canal del Roc Roig avalanche path which was affected by two extreme avalanches in February 1996. This first dendrochronological study has permitted us to assess the tree-ring signals due to avalanche events in 53 out of 132 dated trees. The trees presented a variety of responses to the 1996 avalanche events. It is shown that the type of tree-ring signal depends on tree age. The methodology has proved successful in detecting the 1996 and 1972 documented avalanche events, and provided outstanding evidence of undocumented past events such as one in 1930.

Macroalgae across environmental gradients : tools for managing rocky coastal areas of the northern Baltic Sea

Macroalgae are the main primary producers of the temperate rocky shores providing a three-dimensional habitat, food and nursery grounds for many other species. During the past decades, the state of the coastal waters has deteriorated due to increasing human pressures, resulting in dramatic changes in coastal ecosystems, including macroalgal communities. To reverse the deterioration of the European seas, the EU has adopted the Water Framework Directive (WFD) and the Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD), aiming at improved status of the coastal waters and the marine environment. Further, the Habitats Directive (HD) calls for the protection of important habitats and species (many of which are marine) and the Maritime Spatial Planning Directive for sustainability in the use of resources and human activities at sea and by the coasts. To efficiently protect important marine habitats and communities, we need knowledge on their spatial distribution. Ecological knowledge is also needed to assess the status of the marine areas by involving biological indicators, as required by the WFD and the MSFD; knowledge on how biota changes with human-induced pressures is essential, but to reliably assess change, we need also to know how biotic communities vary over natural environmental gradients. This is especially important in sea areas such as the Baltic Sea, where the natural environmental gradients create substantial differences in biota between areas. In this thesis, I studied the variation occurring in macroalgal communities across the environmental gradients of the northern Baltic Sea, including eutrophication induced changes. The aim was to produce knowledge to support the reliable use of macroalgae as indicators of ecological status of the marine areas and to test practical metrics that could potentially be used in status assessments. Further, the aim was to develop a methodology for mapping the HD Annex I habitat reefs, using the best available data on geology and bathymetry. The results showed that the large-scale variation in the macroalgal community composition of the northern Baltic Sea is largely driven by salinity and exposure. Exposure is important also on smaller spatial scales, affecting species occurrence, community structure and depth penetration of algae. Consequently, the natural variability complicates the use of macroalgae as indicators of human-induced changes. Of the studied indicators, the number of perennial algal species, the perennial cover, the fraction of annual algae, and the lower limit of occurrence of red and brown perennial algae showed potential as usable indicators of ecological status. However, the cumulated cover of algae, commonly used as an indicator in the fully marine environments, showed low responses to eutrophication in the area. Although the mere occurrence of perennial algae did not show clear indicator potential, a distinct discrepancy in the occurrence of bladderwrack, Fucus vesiculosus, was found between two areas with differing eutrophication history, the Bothnian Sea and the Archipelago Sea. The absence of Fucus from many potential sites in the outer Archipelago Sea is likely due to its inability to recover from its disappearance from the area 30-40 years ago, highlighting the importance of past events in macroalgal occurrence. The methodology presented for mapping the potential distribution and the ecological value of reefs showed, that relatively high accuracy in mapping can be achieved by combining existing available data, and the maps produced serve as valuable background information for more detailed surveys. Taken together, the results of the theses contribute significantly to the knowledge on macroalgal communities of the northern Baltic Sea that can be directly applied in various management contexts.

La mémoire matérielle : évocation des souvenirs et photographie dans Les années, d’Annie Ernaux

L’imbrication de l’écriture et de la photographie sera examinée dans Les années, d’Annie Ernaux, de façon à montrer la tension au cœur du double désir de l’auteure de documenter des moments révolus et de les transmettre à autrui. Seront étudiées, d’un point de vue poétique et esthétique, la mise en œuvre des documents et les modalités d’inscription des souvenirs, lesquels sont généralement présentés sous forme d’images mémorielles. Nous verrons que ces images sont liées à un effet photographique, destiné au lecteur dans le but de partager une mémoire matérielle, intime et collective, s’étalant sur des années. Cet angle d’approche devrait permettre de relire Les années suivant une perspective critique nouvelle, et de contribuer aux recherches portant sur la narration, la trace et la mémoire dans la littérature contemporain.

Inglés 3 : Educación Secundaria Obligatoria para Personas Adultas.

Libro de materiales para la enseñanza y aprendizaje del área de lengua inglesa de educación secundaria en personas adultas. Contiene seis unidades didácticas: Daily life breaking routines, past events, planning and predicting future, experiences, people, world problems and cinema. Cada uno contiene textos, actividades dinámicas y curiosidades relacionadas.

Phylogeographic analysis of the chloroplast DNA variation in wild common bean (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) in the Americas

The wild common bean (Phaseolus vulgaris) is widely but discontinuously distributed from northern Mexico to northern Argentina on both sides of the Isthmus of Panama. Little is known on how the species has reached its current disjunct distribution. In this research, chloroplast DNA polymorphisms in seven non-coding regions were used to study the history of migration of wild P. vulgaris between Mesoamerica and South America. A penalized likelihood analysis was applied to previously published Leguminosae ITS data to estimate divergence times between P. vulgaris and its sister taxa from Mesoamerica, and divergence times of populations within P. vulgaris. Fourteen chloroplast haplotypes were identified by PCR-RFLP and their geographical associations were studied by means of a Nested Clade Analysis and Mantel Tests. The results suggest that the haplotypes are not randomly distributed but occupy discrete parts of the geographic range of the species. The current distribution of haplotypes may be explained by isolation by distance and by at least two migration events between Mesoamerica and South America: one from Mesoamerica to South America and another one from northern South America to Mesoamerica. Age estimates place the divergence of P. vulgaris from its sister taxa from Mesoamerica at or before 1.3 Ma, and divergence of populations from Ecuador-northern Peru at or before 0.6 Ma. As these ages are taken as minimum divergence times, the influence of past events, such as the closure of the Isthmus of Panama and the final uplift of the Andes, on the migration history and population structure of this species cannot be disregarded.

Organisational politics: reconciling leadership's rational-emotional paradox

Purpose – Effective leadership action requires managers to harness power that is intrinsically political. This paper aims to study and characterise the political nature of a manager's behaviour when taking leadership action. Design/methodology/approach – The methodological approach is qualitative and examines three organisations over a three-year period when these entities experienced a major product failure. The paper analyses the actual managerial behaviour of managers and provides insight into the factors that most strongly influence the effectiveness of managers when taking leadership action. Findings – Political behaviour when taking leadership action can be conceptualised in terms of rationality and emotionality. In so doing, it can be clarified how behaviour must be modified to ensure that leadership action is consistently effective. Research limitations/implications – A case study of three multinational engineering companies engaged in the design, development and manufacturing of turbomachinery provides the platform for the research. The concepts presented in the paper will require validating in other organisations of different demographic profiles. Practical implications – The concepts presented and the implications discussed provide insight into the political nature of managerial behaviour when taking leadership action. The paper highlights the practical steps individual managers can embrace to ensure that their behaviour is appropriate to context, even under the most traumatic situations. Thus, the paper provides managers with a model that facilitates effective leadership action. Originality/value – This paper provides insight into how managers behaved in circumstances that mattered to them. Through immersion in events at the time they took place, the authors captured situations in which managers were under real pressure and, in so doing, avoided the bias inherent when interviewing a manager about past events. As such, the paper concludes that the political behaviour in which managers engage when taking leadership action is rooted in the reality of the adversity that the most capable managers have both experienced and overcome. This detailed study reports behaviour in a situation where managers' business and future prospects were in jeopardy. This paper identifies why some managers were able to use the experience positively, helping them to adopt politically intrinsic behaviour to facilitate effective leadership action.

Causation, complexity, and the concert: the pragmatics of causal explanation in international relations

A causal explanation provides information about the causal history of whatever is being explained. However, most causal histories extend back almost infinitely and can be described in almost infinite detail. Causal explanations therefore involve choices about which elements of causal histories to pick out. These choices are pragmatic: they reflect our explanatory interests. When adjudicating between competing causal explanations, we must therefore consider not only questions of epistemic adequacy (whether we have good grounds for identifying certain factors as causes) but also questions of pragmatic adequacy (whether the aspects of the causal history picked out are salient to our explanatory interests). Recognizing that causal explanations differ pragmatically as well as epistemically is crucial for identifying what is at stake in competing explanations of the relative peacefulness of the nineteenth-century Concert system. It is also crucial for understanding how explanations of past events can inform policy prescription.

O paradigma frankfurteano: uma alternativa para a psicologia organizacional

O objetivo do presente trabalho e o de propor um modelo teórico de atuação para a Psicologia Organizacional calcado nos seguintes fundamentos: a visão dialética da interação indivíduo/organização proporcionada pela reavaliação do conceito de inclusão parcial nos papéis de Floyd Allport; a recuperação da memória dos acontecimentos passados que influenciam a dinâmica a teoria da competência comunicativa de Juergen Habermas e o método dos grupos operativos de Pichon Riviere. A trajetória percorrida para a concretização deste propósito partiu dos pressupostos de Kuhn, através da formulação de uma hipótese inicial de que os problemas enfrentados pela Psicologia Organizacional decorrem de crenças que orientam a produção de conhecimentos na área. Com a finalidade de comprovar-se a afirmação anterior estabeleceu-se uma análise das diversas correntes responsáveis pelas principais contribuições teóricas no campo categorizando-as nos seguintes paradigmas: burocrático, sistema aberto, relações humanas, humanista e da contingência e indicando-se, simultaneamente, os obstáculos epistemológicos apresentados pelos respectivos paradigmas. A seguir buscou-se, nas contribuições dos teóricos ligados ao movimento filosófico - denominado Escola de Frankfurt - aquelas julgadas as mais significativas à compreensão dos fenômenos, objeto da Psicologia Organizacional. Estas contribuições constituiram-se, assim, em sustentação para o modelo proposto. Como consequência da adoção do paradigma frankfurteano obteve-se uma reorientação no campo e no objeto da Psicologia Organizacional, permitindo-se, também, vislumbrar com maior clareza uma articulação com os campos de atuação da Psicologia do Trabalho e da Psicologia Institucional.

Nas melodias da toada: riso e performance no cururu paulista

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)