869 resultados para PROPORTIONAL HAZARD AND ACCELERATED FAILURE MODELS
Resumo:
Left ventricular diastolic dysfunction leads to heart failure with preserved ejection fraction, an increasingly prevalent condition largely driven by modern day lifestyle risk factors. As heart failure with preserved ejection fraction accounts for almost one-half of all patients with heart failure, appropriate nonhuman animal models are required to improve our understanding of the pathophysiology of this syndrome and to provide a platform for preclinical investigation of potential therapies. Hypertension, obesity, and diabetes are major risk factors for diastolic dysfunction and heart failure with preserved ejection fraction. This review focuses on murine models reflecting this disease continuum driven by the aforementioned common risk factors. We describe various models of diastolic dysfunction and highlight models of heart failure with preserved ejection fraction reported in the literature. Strengths and weaknesses of the different models are discussed to provide an aid to translational scientists when selecting an appropriate model. We also bring attention to the fact that heart failure with preserved ejection fraction is difficult to diagnose in animal models and that, therefore, there is a paucity of well described animal models of this increasingly important condition.
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Anisotropic damage distribution and evolution have a profound effect on borehole stress concentrations. Damage evolution is an irreversible process that is not adequately described within classical equilibrium thermodynamics. Therefore, we propose a constitutive model, based on non-equilibrium thermodynamics, that accounts for anisotropic damage distribution, anisotropic damage threshold and anisotropic damage evolution. We implemented this constitutive model numerically, using the finite element method, to calculate stress–strain curves and borehole stresses. The resulting stress–strain curves are distinctively different from linear elastic-brittle and linear elastic-ideal plastic constitutive models and realistically model experimental responses of brittle rocks. We show that the onset of damage evolution leads to an inhomogeneous redistribution of material properties and stresses along the borehole wall. The classical linear elastic-brittle approach to borehole stability analysis systematically overestimates the stress concentrations on the borehole wall, because dissipative strain-softening is underestimated. The proposed damage mechanics approach explicitly models dissipative behaviour and leads to non-conservative mud window estimations. Furthermore, anisotropic rocks with preferential planes of failure, like shales, can be addressed with our model.
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Executive Summary Emergency health is a critical component of Australia’s health system and emergency departments (EDs) are increasingly congested from growing demand and blocked access to inpatient beds. The Emergency Health Services Queensland (EHSQ) study aims to identify the factors driving increased demand for emergency health and to evaluate strategies which may safely reduce the future demand growth. This monograph addresses the perspectives of users of both ambulance services and EDs. The research reported here aimed to identify the perspectives of users of emergency health services, both ambulance services and public hospital Emergency Departments and to identify the factors that they took into consideration when exercising their choice of location for acute health care. A cross-sectional survey design was used involving a survey of patients or their carers presenting to the EDs of a stratified sample of eight hospitals. A specific purpose questionnaire was developed based on a novel theoretical model which had been derived from analysis of the literature (Monograph 1). Two survey versions were developed: one for adult patients (self-complete); and one for children (to be completed by parents/guardians). The questionnaires measured perceptions of social support, health status, illness severity, self-efficacy; beliefs and attitudes towards ED and ambulance services; reasons for using these services, and actions taken prior to the service request. The survey was conducted at a stratified sample of eight hospitals representing major cities (four), inner regional (two) and outer regional and remote (two). Due to practical limitations, data were collected for ambulance and ED users within hospital EDs, while patients were waiting for or under treatment. A sample size quota was determined for each ED based on their 2009/10 presentation volumes. The data collection was conducted by four members of the research team and a group of eight interviewers between March and May 2011 (corresponding to autumn season). Of the total of 1608 patients in all eight emergency departments the interviewers were able to approach 1361 (85%) patients and seek their consent to participate in the study. In total, 911 valid surveys were available for analysis (response rate= 67%). These studies demonstrate that patients elected to attend hospital EDs in a considered fashion after weighing up alternatives and there is no evidence of deliberate or ill-informed misuse. • Patients attending ED have high levels of social support and self-efficacy that speak to the considered and purposeful nature of the exercise of choice. • About one third of patients have new conditions while two thirds have chronic illnesses • More than half the attendees (53.1%) had consulted a healthcare professional prior to making the decision. • The decision to seek urgent care at an ED was mostly constructed around the patient’s perception of the urgency and severity of their illness, reinforced by a strong perception that the hospital ED was the correct location for them (better specialised staff, better care for my condition, other options not as suitable). • 33% of the respondent held private hospital insurance but nevertheless attended a public hospital ED. Similarly patients exercised considered and rational judgements in their choice to seek help from the ambulance service. • The decision to call for ambulance assistance was based on a strong perception about the severity of the illness (too severe to use other means of transport) and that other options were not considered appropriate. • The decision also appeared influenced by a perception that the ambulance provided appropriate access to the ED which was considered most appropriate for their particular condition (too severe to go elsewhere, all facilities in one spot, better specialised and better care). • In 43.8% of cases a health care professional advised use of the ambulance. • Only a small number of people perceived that ambulance should be freely available regardless of severity or appropriateness. These findings confirm a growing understanding that the choice of professional emergency health care services is not made lightly but rather made by reasonable people exercising a judgement which is influenced by public awareness of the risks of acute health and which is most often informed by health professionals. It is also made on the basis of a rational weighing up of alternatives and a deliberate and considered choice to seek assistance from a service which the patient perceived was most appropriate to their needs at that time. These findings add weight to dispensing with public perceptions that ED and ambulance congestion is a result of inappropriate choice by patients. The challenge for health services is to better understand the patient’s needs and to design and validate services that meet those needs. The failure of our health system to do so should not be grounds for blaming the patient, claiming inappropriate patient choices.
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This paper presents an event-based failure model to predict the number of failures that occur in water distribution assets. Often, such models have been based on analysis of historical failure data combined with pipe characteristics and environmental conditions. In this paper weather data have been added to the model to take into account the commonly observed seasonal variation of the failure rate. The theoretical basis of existing logistic regression models is briefly described in this paper, along with the refinements made to the model for inclusion of seasonal variation of weather. The performance of these refinements is tested using data from two Australian water authorities.
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An aim of proactive risk management strategies is the timely identification of safety related risks. One way to achieve this is by deploying early warning systems. Early warning systems aim to provide useful information on the presence of potential threats to the system, the level of vulnerability of a system, or both of these, in a timely manner. This information can then be used to take proactive safety measures. The United Nation’s has recommended that any early warning system need to have four essential elements, which are the risk knowledge element, a monitoring and warning service, dissemination and communication and a response capability. This research deals with the risk knowledge element of an early warning system. The risk knowledge element of an early warning system contains models of possible accident scenarios. These accident scenarios are created by using hazard analysis techniques, which are categorised as traditional and contemporary. The assumption in traditional hazard analysis techniques is that accidents are occurred due to a sequence of events, whereas, the assumption of contemporary hazard analysis techniques is that safety is an emergent property of complex systems. The problem is that there is no availability of a software editor which can be used by analysts to create models of accident scenarios based on contemporary hazard analysis techniques and generate computer code that represent the models at the same time. This research aims to enhance the process of generating computer code based on graphical models that associate early warning signs and causal factors to a hazard, based on contemporary hazard analyses techniques. For this purpose, the thesis investigates the use of Domain Specific Modeling (DSM) technologies. The contributions of this thesis is the design and development of a set of three graphical Domain Specific Modeling languages (DSML)s, that when combined together, provide all of the necessary constructs that will enable safety experts and practitioners to conduct hazard and early warning analysis based on a contemporary hazard analysis approach. The languages represent those elements and relations necessary to define accident scenarios and their associated early warning signs. The three DSMLs were incorporated in to a prototype software editor that enables safety scientists and practitioners to create and edit hazard and early warning analysis models in a usable manner and as a result to generate executable code automatically. This research proves that the DSM technologies can be used to develop a set of three DSMLs which can allow user to conduct hazard and early warning analysis in more usable manner. Furthermore, the three DSMLs and their dedicated editor, which are presented in this thesis, may provide a significant enhancement to the process of creating the risk knowledge element of computer based early warning systems.
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Seaweeds contain a range of antioxidant compounds such as polyphenols, carotenoids, sulphated polysaccharides and vitamins and have the potential to be used as ingredients in neutraceuticals. The antioxidant activity of crude 60% methanol extracts prepared from five Irish seaweeds, Ascophyllum nodosum, Laminaria hyperborea, Pelvetia canaliculata, Fucus vesiculosus and Fucus serratus were examined using in-vitro assays and a cell model system to determine the antioxidant activity of the extracts and their ability to protect against H2O2 and tert-BOOH-induced DNA damage and alterations in cellular antioxidant status in the human adenocarcinoma, Caco-2 cell line. To optimise the extraction of antioxidant compounds from seaweeds, an accelerated solvent extraction (ASE®) was used in combination with food grade solvents. The antioxidant activity of these extracts against H2O2 and tert-BOOH-induced DNA damage and alterations in cellular antioxidant status was also assessed. Extracts that exhibited the highest antioxidant activity, A. nodosum (100% water and 80% ethanol extracts) and F. vesiculosus (60% ethanol extract) were selected as ingredients for incorporation into fluid milk and yogurt at concentrations of 0.25% and 0.5%. The addition of the seaweed extracts to milk and yogurt did not affect the pH or shelf-life properties of the products. Seaweed addition did however significantly influence the colour properties of the milk and yogurt. Yellowness values were significantly higher in yogurts containing F. vesiculosus at both concentrations and A. nodosum (80% ethanol) at the 0.5% concentration. In milk, the F. vesiculosus (60% ethanol) and A. nodosum (80% ethanol) at both the 0.25% and the 0.5% concentrations had higher greenness and yellowness values than the milk containing A. nodosum (100% water). Sensory analysis revealed that appearance and flavour governed the overall acceptability of yogurts with the control yogurt, and yogurts containing A. nodosum (100% water) were the most preferred samples by panellists. However, in the milk trial the perception of a fishy taste was the determining factor in the negative perception of milk. The unsupplemented control and the milk containing A. nodosum (100% water) at a concentration of 0.5% were the most overall accepted milk samples by the sensory panellists. The antioxidant activity of the extracts in milk and yogurt remained stable during storage as determined by the in-vitro assays. Seaweed supplemented milk and yogurt were also subjected to an in-vitro digestion procedure which mimics the human digestive system. The milk and yogurt samples and their digestates were added to Caco-2 cells to investigate their antioxidant potential however neither the undigested or digested samples protected against H2O2-induced DNA damage in Caco-2 cells.
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Antibodies specific for the beta(1)-adrenergic receptor are found in patients with chronic heart failure of various etiologies. From work presented in this issue of the JCI, we can now infer that these antibodies actually contribute to the pathogenesis of chronic heart failure. This commentary discusses mechanisms by which these antibodies may engender cardiomyopathy.
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The motivation for this paper is to present procedures for automatically creating idealised finite element models from the 3D CAD solid geometry of a component. The procedures produce an accurate and efficient analysis model with little effort on the part of the user. The technique is applicable to thin walled components with local complex features and automatically creates analysis models where 3D elements representing the complex regions in the component are embedded in an efficient shell mesh representing the mid-faces of the thin sheet regions. As the resulting models contain elements of more than one dimension, they are referred to as mixed dimensional models. Although these models are computationally more expensive than some of the idealisation techniques currently employed in industry, they do allow the structural behaviour of the model to be analysed more accurately, which is essential if appropriate design decisions are to be made. Also, using these procedures, analysis models can be created automatically whereas the current idealisation techniques are mostly manual, have long preparation times, and are based on engineering judgement. In the paper the idealisation approach is first applied to 2D models that are used to approximate axisymmetric components for analysis. For these models 2D elements representing the complex regions are embedded in a 1D mesh representing the midline of the cross section of the thin sheet regions. Also discussed is the coupling, which is necessary to link the elements of different dimensionality together. Analysis results from a 3D mixed dimensional model created using the techniques in this paper are compared to those from a stiffened shell model and a 3D solid model to demonstrate the improved accuracy of the new approach. At the end of the paper a quantitative analysis of the reduction in computational cost due to shell meshing thin sheet regions demonstrates that the reduction in degrees of freedom is proportional to the square of the aspect ratio of the region, and for long slender solids, the reduction can be proportional to the aspect ratio of the region if appropriate meshing algorithms are used.
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Mesenchymal stromal cells (MSC) have been reported to improve bacterial clearance in pre-clinical models of Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS) and sepsis. The mechanism of this effect is not fully elucidated yet. The primary objective of this study was to investigate the hypothesis that the anti-microbial effect of MSC in vivo depends on their modulation of macrophage phagocytic activity which occurs through mitochondrial transfer. We established that selective depletion of alveolar macrophages (AM) with intranasal (IN) administration of liposomal clodronate resulted in complete abrogation of MSC anti-microbial effect in the in vivo model of E.coli pneumonia. Furthermore, we showed that MSC administration was associated with enhanced AM phagocytosis in vivo. We showed that direct co-culture of MSC with monocyte-derived macrophages (MDMs) enhanced their phagocytic capacity. By fluorescent imaging and flow cytometry we demonstrated extensive mitochondrial transfer from MSC to macrophages which occurred at least partially through TNT-like structures. We also detected that lung macrophages readily acquire MSC mitochondria in vivo, and macrophages which are positive for MSC mitochondria display more pronounced phagocytic activity. Finally, partial inhibition of mitochondrial transfer through blockage of TNT formation by MSC resulted in failure to improve macrophage bioenergetics and complete abrogation of the MSC effect on macrophage phagocytosis in vitro and the anti-microbial effect of MSC in vivo.
Collectively, this work for the first time demonstrates that mitochondrial transfer from MSC to innate immune cells leads to enhancement in phagocytic activity and reveals an important novel mechanism for the anti-microbial effect of MSC in ARDS.
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We analyse by simulation the impact of model-selection strategies (sometimes called pre-testing) on forecast performance in both constant-and non-constant-parameter processes. Restricted, unrestricted and selected models are compared when either of the first two might generate the data. We find little evidence that strategies such as general-to-specific induce significant over-fitting, or thereby cause forecast-failure rejection rates to greatly exceed nominal sizes. Parameter non-constancies put a premium on correct specification, but in general, model-selection effects appear to be relatively small, and progressive research is able to detect the mis-specifications.
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The paper analyzes a two period general equilibrium model with individual risk and moral hazard. Each household faces two individual states of nature in the second period. These states solely differ in the household's vector of initial endowments, which is strictly larger in the first state (good state) than in the second state (bad state). In the first period households choose a non-observable action. Higher leveis of action give higher probability of the good state of nature to occur, but lower leveIs of utility. Households have access to an insurance market that allows transfer of income across states of oature. I consider two models of financiaI markets, the price-taking behavior model and the nonlínear pricing modelo In the price-taking behavior model suppliers of insurance have a belief about each household's actíon and take asset prices as given. A variation of standard arguments shows the existence of a rational expectations equilibrium. For a generic set of economies every equilibrium is constraíned sub-optímal: there are commodity prices and a reallocation of financiaI assets satisfying the first period budget constraint such that, at each household's optimal choice given those prices and asset reallocation, markets clear and every household's welfare improves. In the nonlinear pricing model suppliers of insurance behave strategically offering nonlinear pricing contracts to the households. I provide sufficient conditions for the existence of equilibrium and investigate the optimality properties of the modeI. If there is a single commodity then every equilibrium is constrained optimaI. Ir there is more than one commodity, then for a generic set of economies every equilibrium is constrained sub-optimaI.
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The failure of facial prostheses is caused by limitations in their flexibility and durability. Therefore, we evaluated the effects of disinfection and aging on Shore A hardness and deterioration of a facial silicone with different pigmentations. Twenty samples with addition of each pigment (ceramic (C), make-up (M)) and without pigment (L) were made. For each pigment type and no pigment, 10 samples were subjected to two types of disinfectant solution (soap (S) and Efferdent (E)), totaling sixty samples. The specimens were disinfected three times per week for 60 days, and subjected to accelerated aging for 1008 h. The hardness of the facial silicone was measured with a durometer, and its deterioration was evaluated by obtaining the weight difference over time. Both the hardness and weight of the samples were measured at baseline, after chemical disinfection, and periodically during accelerated aging (252, 504, and 1008 h). Deterioration was calculated during the periods between baseline and chemical disinfection, and between baseline and each aging period. The results were analyzed using three-way repeated measures ANOVA and the Tukey's HSD Post-hoc test (alpha = 0.05). Specifically, samples containing pigment exhibited significantly higher hardness and deterioration values than those lacking pigment (P < 0.05). In addition, period of time (disinfection and accelerated aging) statistically increased the hardness and deterioration values of the silicone (P < 0.05). It can be concluded that both pigment and time statistically affected the hardness and deterioration of the silicone elastomer. (c) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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We present recent improvements of the modeling of the disruption of strength dominated bodies using the Smooth Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) technique. The improvements include an updated strength model and a friction model, which are successfully tested by a comparison with laboratory experiments. In the modeling of catastrophic disruptions of asteroids, a comparison between old and new strength models shows no significant deviation in the case of targets which are initially non-porous, fully intact and have a homogeneous structure (such as the targets used in the study by Benz and Asphaug, 1999). However, for many cases (e.g. initially partly or fully damaged targets and rubble-pile structures) we find that it is crucial that friction is taken into account and the material has a pressure dependent shear strength. Our investigations of the catastrophic disruption threshold (27, as a function of target properties and target sizes up to a few 100 km show that a fully damaged target modeled without friction has a Q(D)*:, which is significantly (5-10 times) smaller than in the case where friction is included. When the effect of the energy dissipation due to compaction (pore crushing) is taken into account as well, the targets become even stronger (Q(D)*; is increased by a factor of 2-3). On the other hand, cohesion is found to have an negligible effect at large scales and is only important at scales less than or similar to 1 km. Our results show the relative effects of strength, friction and porosity on the outcome of collisions among small (less than or similar to 1000 km) bodies. These results will be used in a future study to improve existing scaling laws for the outcome of collisions (e.g. Leinhardt and Stewart, 2012). (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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A continuous age model for the brief climate excursion at the Paleocene-Eocene boundary has been constructed by assuming a constant flux of extraterrestrial 3He (3He[ET]) to the seafloor. 3He[ET] measurements from ODP Site 690 provide quantitative evidence for the rapid onset (