Where the growth will be--state population projections, 1993 to 2020.

Mode of access: Internet.

Illinois population projections : summary and by county, 1970-2025.

"June 1980."

Prison population projections ... /

Mode of access: Internet.

Guide for local area population projections /

Includes bibliographical references.

The development of population projections for the Turks and Caicos Islands 2012-2027

It is not possible to trace the early demographic development of the Turks and Caicos Islands due to lack of data, but what is evident from the limited historical data is that population developments beginning in 1921 and up to 1970 followed the same path as other Caribbean Islands. The Turks and Caicos Islands have experienced unprecedented population growth over the last twenty years due largely to the immigration of people from neighbouring countries seeking employment created by the development of tourism. Such rapid population changes for the small island group present many social, economic, environmental and political challenges. Population projections are essential so that policymakers and decision makers can make informed judgements about future strategies, policies and programmes.

Population projection for Namibia 2011-2020 - With an estimation of the impact of HIV/AIDS

This study presents a population projection for Namibia for years 2011–2020. In many countries of sub-Saharan Africa, including Namibia, the population growth is still continuing even though the fertility rates have declined. However, many of these countries suffer from a large HIV epidemic that is slowing down the population growth. In Namibia, the epidemic has been severe. Therefore, it is important to assess the effect of HIV/AIDS on the population of Namibia in the future. Demographic research on Namibia has not been very extensive, and data on population is not widely available. According to the studies made, fertility has been shown to be generally declining and mortality has been significantly increasing due to AIDS. Previous population projections predict population growth for Namibia in the near future, yet HIV/AIDS is affecting the future population developments. For the projection constructed in this study, data on population is taken from the two most recent censuses, from 1991 and 2001. Data on HIV is available from HIV Sentinel Surveys 1992–2008, which test pregnant women for HIV in antenatal clinics. Additional data are collected from different sources and recent studies. The projection is made with software (EPP and Spectrum) specially designed for developing countries with scarce data. The projection includes two main scenarios which have different assumptions concerning the development of the HIV epidemic. In addition, two hypothetical scenarios are made: the first considering the case where HIV epidemic would never have existed and the second considering the case where HIV treatment would never have existed. The results indicate population growth for Namibia. Population in the 2001 census was 1.83 million and is projected to result in 2.38/2.39 million in 2020 in the first two scenarios. Without HIV, population would be 2.61 million and without treatment 2.30 million in 2020. Urban population is growing faster than rural. Even though AIDS is increasing mortality, the past high fertility rates still keep young adult age groups quite large. The HIV epidemic shows to be slowing down, but it is still increasing the mortality of the working-aged population. The initiation of HIV treatment in 2004 in the public sector seems to have had an effect on many projected indicators, diminishing the impact of HIV on the population. For example, the rise of mortality is slowing down.

A production modeling approach to the assessment of the horseshoe crab (Limulus polyphemus) population in Delaware Bay

Horseshoe crab (Limulus polyphemus) is harvested commercially, used by the biomedical industry, and provides food for migrating shorebirds, particularly in Delaware Bay. Recently, decreasing crab population trends in this region have raised concerns that the stock may be insufficient to fulfill the needs of these diverse user groups. To assess the Delaware Bay horseshoe crab population, we used surplus production models (programmed in ASPIC), which incorporated data from fishery-independent surveys, fishery-dependent catch-per-unit-of-effort data, and regional harvest. Results showed a depleted population (B2003/=0.03−0.71) BMSY and high relative fishing mortality /FMSY=0.9−9.5). Future harvest (F2002strategies for a 15-year period were evaluated by using population projections with ASPICP software. Under 2003 harvest levels (1356 t), population recovery to BMSY would take at least four years, and four of the seven models predicted that the population would not reach BMSY within the 15year period. Production models for horseshoe crab assessment provided management benchmarks for a species with limited data and no prior stock assessment

The joint effects of larval density and C-14-cypermethrin on the life history and population growth rate of the midge Chironomus riparius

1. Chemical effects on organisms are typically assessed using individual-level endpoints or sometimes population growth rate (PGR), but such measurements are generally made at low population densities. In contrast most natural populations are subject to density dependence and fluctuate around the environmental carrying capacity as a result of individual competition for resources. As ecotoxicology aims to make reliable population projections of chemical impacts in the field, an understanding of how high-density or resource-limited populations respond to environmental chemicals is essential. 2. Our objective was to determine the joint effects of population density and chemical stress on the life history and PGR of an important ecotoxicological indicator species, Chironomus riparius, under controlled laboratory conditions. Populations were fed the same ration but initiated at different densities and exposed to a solvent control and three concentrations of C-14-cypermethrin in a sediment-water test system for 67 days at 20 +/- 1 degreesC. 3. Density had a negative effect on all the measured life-history traits, and PGR declined with increasing density in the controls. Exposure to C-14-cypermethrin had a direct negative effect on juvenile survival, presumably within the first 24 h because the chemical rapidly dissipated from the water column. Reductions in the initial larval densities resulted in an increase in the available resources for the survivors. Subsequently, exposed populations emerged sooner and started producing offspring earlier than the controls. C-14-cypermethrin had no effect on estimated fecundity and adult body weight but interacted with density to reduce the time to first emergence and first reproduction. As a result, PGR increased with cypermethrin concentration when populations were initiated at high densities. 4. Synthesis and applications. The results showed that the effects of C-14-cypermethrin were buffered at high density, so that the joint effects of density and chemical stress on PGR were less than additive. Low levels of chemical stressors may increase carrying capacity by reducing juvenile competition for resources. More and perhaps fitter adults may be produced, similar to the effects of predators and culling; however, toxicant exposure may result in survivors that are less tolerant to changing conditions. If less than additive effects are typical in the field, standard regulatory tests carried out at low density may overestimate the effects of environmental chemicals. Further studies over a wide range of chemical stressors and organisms with contrasting life histories are needed to make general recommendations.

Illinois population trends from ... to ...

Vols. for 1982- cover the period: 1970 to 2025; <1987>-1990: 1980 to 2025; 1997- : 1990 to 2020.

Recent developments in population projection methodology: A review

In this paper we survey five streams of research that have made important contributions to population projection methodology over the last decade. These are: (i) the evaluation of population forecasts; (ii) probabilistic methods; (iii) experiments in the projection of migration; (iv) projecting dimensions additional to age, sex and region; and (v) the use of scenarios for 'what if?' analyses and understanding population dynamics. Key developments in these areas are discussed, and a number of opportunities for further research are identified. Copyright (c) 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Projecting the trend in the Canadian gender wage gap 2001-2031: Will an increase in female education acquisition and commitment be enough?

The paper projects the gender wage gap for 25-64 year-olds in Canada over the period 2001-2031. The empirical analysis uses the Survey of Labour and Income Dynamics together with Statistics Canada demographic projections. The methodology combines the population projections with assumptions relating to the evolution of educational attainment in order to first project the future distribution of human capital skills and, based on these projections, the future size of the gender wage gap. The projections suggest continued gender wage convergence produced by changing skills characteristics. However, a substantial pay gap will remain in 2031.

Projecting the U.S. gender wage gap 2000–40

This paper projects the gender wage gap for 25–64 year old Americans for the period 2000–40. The analysis uses data from the Panel Survey of Income Dynamics (PSID) for 1995 and 1996 together with the U.S. Census Bureau demographic projections. The method combines the population projections with assumptions regarding the evolution of educational attainment in order to first project the future distribution of skills and, based on these projections, the future size of the gender wage gap. The main set of projections suggests that changing skill characteristics—specifically educational attainment—will continue to close the gender wage gap. However, even in 2040, a substantial pay gap of at least 75 percent of the size of that in 1995 will remain.

Incidence trends for childhood type 1 diabetes in Europe during 1989-2003 and predicted new cases 2005-20: a multicentre prospective registration study

Background: The incidence of type 1 diabetes in children younger than 15 years is increasing. Prediction of future incidence of this disease will enable adequate fund allocation for delivery of care to be planned. We aimed to establish 15-year incidence trends for childhood type 1 diabetes in European centres, and thereby predict the future burden of childhood diabetes in Europe.
Methods: 20 population-based EURODIAB registers in 17 countries registered 29 311 new cases of type 1 diabetes, diagnosed in children before their 15th birthday during a 15-year period, 1989–2003. Age-specific log linear rates of increase were estimated in five geographical regions, and used in conjunction with published incidence rates and population projections to predict numbers of new cases throughout Europe in 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020.
Findings: Ascertainment was better than 90% in most registers. All but two registers showed significant yearly increases in incidence, ranging from 0·6% to 9·3%. The overall annual increase was 3·9% (95% CI 3·6–4·2), and the increases in the age groups 0–4 years, 5–9 years, and 10–14 years were 5·4% (4·8–6·1), 4·3% (3·8–4·8), and 2·9% (2·5–3·3), respectively. The number of new cases in Europe in 2005, is estimated as 15 000, divided between the 0–4 year, 5–9 year, and 10–14 year age-groups in the ratio 24%, 35%, and 41%, respectively. In 2020, the predicted number of new cases is 24 000, with a doubling in numbers in children younger than 5 years and a more even distribution across age-groups than at present (29%, 37%, and 34%, respectively). Prevalence under age 15 years is predicted to rise from 94 000 in 2005, to 160 000 in 2020.
Interpretation: If present trends continue, doubling of new cases of type 1 diabetes in European children younger than 5 years is predicted between 2005 and 2020, and prevalent cases younger than 15 years will rise by 70%. Adequate health-care resources to meet these children’s needs should be made available.

Projecting the U.S. gender wage gap 2000-40

This paper projects the gender wage gap for 25–64 year old Americans for the period 2000–40. The analysis uses data from the Panel Survey of Income Dynamics (PSID) for 1995 and 1996 together with the U.S. Census Bureau demographic projections. The method combines the population projections with assumptions regarding the evolution of educational attainment in order to first project the future distribution of skills and, based on these projections, the future size of the gender wage gap. The main set of projections suggests that changing skill characteristics—specifically educational attainment—will continue to close the gender wage gap. However, even in 2040, a substantial pay gap of at least 75 percent of the size of that in 1995 will remain.

Projecting the trend in the Canadian gender wage gap 2001-2031: will an increase in female education acquisition and commitment be enough?

The paper projects the gender wage gap for 25-64 year-olds in Canada over the period 2001-2031. The empirical analysis uses the Survey of Labour and Income Dynamics together with Statistics Canada demographic projections. The methodology combines the population projections with assumptions relating to the evolution of educational attainment in order to first project the future distribution of human capital skills and, based on these projections, the future size of the gender wage gap. The projections suggest continued gender wage convergence produced by changing skills characteristics. However, a substantial pay gap will remain in 2031.