Estimating Brazilian Monthly GDP: a State-Space Approach

This paper has several original contributions. The first is to employ a superior interpolation method that enables to estimate, nowcast and forecast monthly Brazilian GDP for 1980-2012 in an integrated way; see Bernanke, Gertler and Watson (1997, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity). Second, along the spirit of Mariano and Murasawa (2003, Journal of Applied Econometrics), we propose and test a myriad of interpolation models and interpolation auxiliary series- all coincident with GDP from a business-cycle dating point of view. Based on these results, we finally choose the most appropriate monthly indicator for Brazilian GDP. Third, this monthly GDP estimate is compared to an economic activity indicator widely used by practitioners in Brazil - the Brazilian Economic Activity Index - (IBC-Br). We found that the our monthly GDP tracks economic activity better than IBC-Br. This happens by construction, since our state-space approach imposes the restriction (discipline) that our monthly estimate must add up to the quarterly observed series in any given quarter, which may not hold regarding IBC-Br. Moreover, our method has the advantage to be easily implemented: it only requires conditioning on two observed series for estimation, while estimating IBC-Br requires the availability of hundreds of monthly series. Third, in a nowcasting and forecasting exercise, we illustrate the advantages of our integrated approach. Finally, we compare the chronology of recessions of our monthly estimate with those done elsewhere.

Estimating brazilian monthly GDP: a state-space approach

This paper has several original contributions. The rst is to employ a superior interpolation method that enables to estimate, nowcast and forecast monthly Brazilian GDP for 1980-2012 in an integrated way; see Bernanke, Gertler and Watson (1997, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity). Second, along the spirit of Mariano and Murasawa (2003, Journal of Applied Econometrics), we propose and test a myriad of interpolation models and interpolation auxiliary series all coincident with GDP from a business-cycle dating point of view. Based on these results, we nally choose the most appropriate monthly indicator for Brazilian GDP. Third, this monthly GDP estimate is compared to an economic activity indicator widely used by practitioners in Brazil - the Brazilian Economic Activity Index - (IBC-Br). We found that the our monthly GDP tracks economic activity better than IBC-Br. This happens by construction, since our state-space approach imposes the restriction (discipline) that our monthly estimate must add up to the quarterly observed series in any given quarter, which may not hold regarding IBC-Br. Moreover, our method has the advantage to be easily implemented: it only requires conditioning on two observed series for estimation, while estimating IBC-Br requires the availability of hundreds of monthly series. Third, in a nowcasting and forecasting exercise, we illustrate the advantages of our integrated approach. Finally, we compare the chronology of recessions of our monthly estimate with those done elsewhere.

Estimating Brazilian monthly GDP: a state-space approach

This paper has several original contributions. The rst is to employ a superior interpolation method that enables to estimate, nowcast and forecast monthly Brazilian GDP for 1980-2012 in an integrated way; see Bernanke, Gertler and Watson (1997, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity). Second, along the spirit of Mariano and Murasawa (2003, Journal of Applied Econometrics), we propose and test a myriad of interpolation models and interpolation auxiliary series all coincident with GDP from a business-cycle dating point of view. Based on these results, we nally choose the most appropriate monthly indicator for Brazilian GDP. Third, this monthly GDP estimate is compared to an economic activity indicator widely used by practitioners in Brazil- the Brazilian Economic Activity Index - (IBC-Br). We found that the our monthly GDP tracks economic activity better than IBC-Br. This happens by construction, since our state-space approach imposes the restriction (discipline) that our monthly estimate must add up to the quarterly observed series in any given quarter, whichmay not hold regarding IBC-Br. Moreover, our method has the advantage to be easily implemented: it only requires conditioning on two observed series for estimation, while estimating IBC-Br requires the availability of hundreds of monthly series. Third, in a nowcasting and forecasting exercise, we illustrate the advantages of our integrated approach. Finally, we compare the chronology of recessions of our monthly estimate with those done elsewhere.

Estimating Brazilian monthly GDP: a state-space approach

The first contribution of this paper is to employ a superior interpolation method that enables to estimate, nowcast and forecast monthly Brazilian GDP for 1980-2012 in an integrated way; see Bernanke, Gertler and Watson (1997, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity). The second contribution, along the spirit of Mariano and Murasawa (2003, Journal of Applied Econometrics), is to propose and test a myriad of inter-polation models and interpolation auxiliary series all coincident with GDP from a business-cycle dating point of view. Based on these results, we finally choose the most appropriate monthly indicator for Brazilian GDP. Third, this monthly GDP estimate is compared to an economic activity indicator widely used by practitioners in Brazil - the Brazilian Economic Activity Index - (IBC-Br). We found that our monthly GDP tracks economic activity better than IBC-Br. This happens by construction, since our state-space approach imposes the restriction (discipline) that our monthly estimate must add up to the quarterly observed series in any given quarter, which may not hold regarding IBC-Br. Moreover, our method has the advantage to be easily implemented: it only requires conditioning on two observed series for estimation, while estimating IBC-Br requires the availability of hundreds of monthly series. The third contribution is to illustrate, in a nowcasting and forecasting exercise, the advantages of our integrated approach. Finally, we compare the chronology of recessions of our monthly estimate with those done elsewhere.

Quantum discrete phase space dynamics and its continuous limit

The main aspects of a discrete phase space formalism are presented and the discrete dynamical bracket, suitable for the description of time evolution in finite-dimensional spaces, is discussed. A set of operator bases is defined in such a way that the Weyl-Wigner formalism is shown to be obtained as a limiting case. In the same form, the Moyal bracket is shown to be the limiting case of the discrete dynamical bracket. The dynamics in quantum discrete phase spaces is shown not to be attained from discretization of the continuous case.

The Schrodinger and Pauli-Dirac Oscillators in Noncommutative Phase Space

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Characterization of multiple reflections and phase space properties for a periodically corrugated waveguide

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Two-dimensional induced gravity in reduced phase-space

We discuss the Dirac method analysis of two-dimensional induced gravity, coupled to bosonic matter fields, in reduced phase-space. After defining the extended Hamiltonian it is possible to fix the gauge completely. The Dirac brackets can all be obtained in closed form; nevertheless, the results are not particularly simple.

The Liapunov exponent as a tool for exploring phase space

We have used the Liapunov exponent to explore the phase space of a dynamical system. Considering the planar, circular restricted three-body problem for a mass ratio mu = 10(-3) (close to the Jupiter/Sun case), we have integrated similar to 16,000 starting conditions for orbits started interior to that of the perturber and we have estimated the maximum Liapunov characteristic exponent for each starting condition. Despite the fact that the integrations, in general, are for only a few thousand orbital periods of the secondary, a comparative analysis of the Liapunov exponents for various values of the 'cut-off' gives a good overview of the structure of the phase space. It provides information about the diffusion rates of the various chaotic regions, the location of the regular regions associated with primary resonances and even details such as the location of secondary resonances that produce chaotic regions inside the regular regions of primary resonances.

Collisional semiclassical approximations in phase-space representation

The Gaussian wave-packet phase-space representation is used to show that the expansion in powers of a of the quantum Liouville propagator leads, in the zeroth-order term, to results close to those obtained in the statistical quasiclassical method of Lee and Scully in the Weyl-Wigner picture. It is also verified that, propagating the Wigner distribution along the classical trajectories, the amount of error is less than that coming from propagating the Gaussian distribution along classical trajectories.

On the structure of quantum phase space

The space of labels characterizing the elements of Schwinger's basis for unitary quantum operators is endowed with a structure of symplectic type. This structure is embodied in a certain algebraic cocycle, whose main features are inherited by the symplectic form of classical phase space. In consequence, the label space may be taken as the quantum phase space: It plays, in the quantum case, the same role played by phase space in classical mechanics, some differences coming inevitably from its nonlinear character. © 1990 American Institute of Physics.

Connection space approach to ambiguities of gauge theories

Two distinct gauge potentials can have the same field strength, in which case they are said to be copies of each other. The consequences of this ambiguity for the general affine space A of gauge potentials are examined. Any two potentials are connected by a straight line in A, but a straight line going through two copies either contains no other copy or is entirely formed by copies. Copyright © 2005 Hindawi Publishing Corporation.

Spin squeezing and entanglement via finite-dimensional discrete phase-space description

We show how mapping techniques inherent to N2-dimensional discrete phase spaces can be used to treat a wide family of spin systems which exhibits squeezing and entanglement effects. This algebraic framework is then applied to the modified Lipkin-Meshkov-Glick (LMG) model in order to obtain the time evolution of certain special parameters related to the Robertson- Schrödinger (RS) uncertainty principle and some particular proposals of entanglement measure based on collective angular-momentum generators. Our results reinforce the connection between both the squeezing and entanglement effects, as well as allow to investigate the basic role of spin correlations through the discrete representatives of quasiprobability distribution functions. Entropy functionals are also discussed in this context. The main sequence correlations → entanglement → squeezing of quantum effects embraces a new set of insights and interpretations in this framework, which represents an effective gain for future researches in different spin systems. © 2013 World Scientific Publishing Company.

A rescaling of the phase space for Hamiltonian map: Applications on the Kepler map and mappings with diverging angles in the limit of vanishing action

A rescale of the phase space for a family of two-dimensional, nonlinear Hamiltonian mappings was made by using the location of the first invariant Kolmogorov-Arnold-Moser (KAM) curve. Average properties of the phase space are shown to be scaling invariant and with different scaling times. Specific values of the control parameters are used to recover the Kepler map and the mapping that describes a particle in a wave packet for the relativistic motion. The phase space observed shows a large chaotic sea surrounding periodic islands and limited by a set of invariant KAM curves whose position of the first of them depends on the control parameters. The transition from local to global chaos is used to estimate the position of the first invariant KAM curve, leading us to confirm that the chaotic sea is scaling invariant. The different scaling times are shown to be dependent on the initial conditions. The universality classes for the Kepler map and mappings with diverging angles in the limit of vanishing action are defined. © 2013 Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.