Are two-part tariffs efficient when consumers plan ahead?: An empirical study

During the last two decades there has been an increase in using dynamic tariffs for billing household electricity consumption. This has questioned the suitability of traditional pricing schemes, such as two-part tariffs, since they contribute to create marked peak and offpeak demands. The aim of this paper is to assess if two-part tariffs are an efficient pricing scheme using Spanish household electricity microdata. An ordered probit model with instrumental variables on the determinants of power level choice and non-paramentric spline regressions on the electricity price distribution will allow us to distinguish between the tariff structure choice and the simultaneous demand decisions. We conclude that electricity consumption and dwellings’ and individuals’ characteristics are key determinants of the fixed charge paid by Spanish households Finally, the results point to the inefficiency of the two-part tariff as those consumers who consume more electricity pay a lower price than the others.

Economic development and changes in car ownership patterns

The contributions of this paper are twofold: On the one hand, the paper analyses the factors determining the growth in car ownership in Spain over the last two decades, and, on the other, the paper provides empirical evidence for a controversial methodological issue. From a methodological point of view, the paper compares the two alternative decision mechanisms used for modelling car ownership: ordered-response versus unordered-response mechanisms. A discrete choice model is estimated at three points in time: 1980, 1990 and 2000. The study concludes that on the basis of forecasting performance, the multinomial logit model and the ordered probit model are almost undistinguishable. As for the empirical results, it can be emphasised that income elasticity is not constant and declines as car ownership increases. Besides, households living in rural areas are less sensitive than those living in urban areas. Car ownership is also sensitive to the quality of public transport for those living in the largest cities. The results also confirmed the existence of a generation effect, which will vanish around the year 2020, a weak life-cycle effect, and a positive effect of employment on the number of cars per household. Finally, the change in the estimated coefficients over time reflects an increase in mobility needs and, consequently, an increase in car ownership.

Extending contingency: the impact of strategy, technology, size and business environment on the organisational form of small Chinese firms

This paper is inspired by articles in the last decade or so that have argued for more attention to theory, and to empirical analysis, within the well-known, and long-lasting, contingency framework for explaining the organisational form of the firm. Its contribution is to extend contingency analysis in three ways: (a) by empirically testing it, using explicit econometric modelling (rather than case study evidence) involving estimation by ordered probit analysis; (b) by extending its scope from large firms to SMEs; (c) by extending its applications from Western economic contexts, to an emerging economy context, using field work evidence from China. It calibrates organizational form in a new way, as an ordinal dependent variable, and also utilises new measures of familiar contingency factors from the literature (i.e. Environment, Strategy, Size and Technology) as the independent variables. An ordered probit model of contingency was constructed, and estimated by maximum likelihood, using a cross section of 83 private Chinese firms. The probit was found to be a good fit to the data, and displayed significant coefficients with plausible interpretations for key variables under all the four categories of contingency analysis, namely Environment, Strategy, Size and Technology. Thus we have generalised the contingency model, in terms of specification, interpretation and applications area.

Chasing Graduate Jobs?

This paper examines empirically the relationship between under-employment and migration amongst five cohorts of graduates of Scottish higher education institutions with micro-data collected by the Higher Education Statistical Agency. The data indicate that there is a strong positive relationship between migration and graduate employment—those graduates who move after graduation from Scotland to the rest of the UK or abroad have a much higher rate of graduate employment. Versions of probit regression are used to estimate migration and graduate employment equations in order to explore the nature of this relationship further. These equations confirm that there is a strong positive relationship between the probability of migrating and the probability of being in graduate employment even after other factors are controlled for. Instrumental variables estimation is used to examine the causal nature of the relationship by attempting to deal with the potential endogeneity of migration decisions. Overall the analysis is consistent with the hypotheses that a sizeable fraction of higher education graduates are leaving Scotland for employment reasons. In turn this finding suggests the over-education/under-employment nexus is a serious problem in Scotland.

R&D cooperation between Spanish firms and scientific partners: what is the role of tertiary education?

This paper explores the factors that determine firm’s R&D cooperation with different partners, paying special attention on the role of tertiary education (degree and PhDs level) in facilitating the connection between the firms and the to scientific bodies (technology centres, public research centres and universities). Here, we attempt to answer two questions. First, are innovative firms that carry out internal and external R&D activities more likely to cooperate on R&D projects with other partners? Second, do Spanish innovative firms with a high participation of researchers with degrees or PhDs tend to cooperate more with scientific partners? To answer both questions we apply a three-dimensional approach on a firm level Panel Data with a sample of 4.998 manufacturing and services Spanish firms. First, we run a complementary test between external R&D acquisition and skilled research workers and find that firms which carry out external R&D activities obtain a greater return on R&D cooperation when they have skilled workers in R&D, especially in high-tech manufactures and KIS services. Second, we carry out a 2-step tobit model to estimate, in the first stage, the determinants that explain whether Spanish innovative firms cooperate or not; and in the second stage the factors that affect the choice of partners. And third, we apply an ordered probit model to test the marginal effects of explanatory variables on the different partners. Here we contrast some of the most interesting empirical hypotheses of previous studies, and which emphasize the role of employees with degrees and PhDs in facilitating cooperative R&D between firms and scientific partners.

R&D cooperation between Spanish firms and scientific partners: what is the role of tertiary education?

This paper explores the factors that determine firm’s R&D cooperation with different partners, paying special attention on the role of tertiary education (degree and PhDs level) in facilitating the connection between the firms and the to scientific bodies (technology centres, public research centres and universities). Here, we attempt to answer two questions. First, are innovative firms that carry out internal and external R&D activities more likely to cooperate on R&D projects with other partners? Second, do Spanish innovative firms with a high participation of researchers with degrees or PhDs tend to cooperate more with scientific partners? To answer both questions we apply a three-dimensional approach on a firm level Panel Data with a sample of 4.998 manufacturing and services Spanish firms. First, we run a complementary test between external R&D acquisition and skilled research workers and find that firms which carry out external R&D activities obtain a greater return on R&D cooperation when they have skilled workers in R&D, especially in high-tech manufactures and KIS services. Second, we carry out a 2-step tobit model to estimate, in the first stage, the determinants that explain whether Spanish innovative firms cooperate or not; and in the second stage the factors that affect the choice of partners. And third, we apply an ordered probit model to test the marginal effects of explanatory variables on the different partners. Here we contrast some of the most interesting empirical hypotheses of previous studies, and which emphasize the role of employees with degrees and PhDs in facilitating cooperative R&D between firms and scientific partners. JEL classification: O31, O33, O38. Key words: Determinants R&D cooperation, industry-university flows, PhD research workers.

The Innovation and Imitation Dichotomy in Spanish firms: do absorptive capacity and the technological frontier matter?

This paper analyses whether a firm’s absorptive capacity and its distance from the technological frontier affect the choice between innovation and imitation in innovative Spanish firms. From an extensive survey of 5,575 firms during the 2004-2009 period, we found two significant results. With regard to the role of absorptive capacity, the empirical evidence shows that when innovative firms have difficulties in accessing external information and hire skilled workers, their innovative capacity is reduced. Meanwhile, with regard to distance from the technological frontier, the firms that reduce this gap manage to increase their innovative capacity at the expense of imitation. To summarise, when we studied firms’ absorptive capacity and their relative position to the technological frontier in tandem, we found that the two factors directly affected firms' ability to innovate or imitate. Key words: R&D sources, innovation and imitation strategies, absorptive capacity, technological frontier, ordered probit.

The Life Course Determinants of Vulnerability in Late Careers

Late career is often seen as a more vulnerable life-stage in the labour market, in which workers may experience a deterioration in job quality. Using a life course perspective and longitudinal data, this article analyses the vulnerability associated with late career by focusing on four occupational dimensions: working-time, career continuity, retirement timing and income change. The research is carried out using data from Switzerland, a country where the age profile of the labour force is an increasing issue. The paper also adopts a cumulative disadvantage perspective to examine the impact of previous work and family life experiences on work life vulnerability at older age. Our data come from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARELIFE). The paper uses cluster analysis, sequence analysis and ordered logistic regression. Results show that women with previous family responsibilities resulting in long-term unemployment or caring, often with health complications, are more likely to be vulnerable to deterioration in job quality in late career. This suggests that experiences in the last period of the working life may be just as gendered as earlier periods.

Quality and Competition: An Empirical Analysis across Industries, March 2006

This paper empirically explores the link between quality and concentration in a cross-section of manufactured goods. Using concentration data and product quality indicators, an ordered probit estimation explores the impact of concentration on quality that is defined as an index of quality characteristics. The results demonstrate that market concentration and quality are positively correlated across different industries. When industry concentration increases, the likelihood of the product being higher quality increases and the likelihood of observing a lower quality decreases.

Clinical consequences of imatinib plasma concentrations variability in hemato-oncologic patients

Background: Imatinib has revolutionized the treatment of chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) and gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GIST). Considering the large inter-individual differences in the function of the systems involved in its disposition, exposure to imatinib can be expected to vary widely among patients. This observational study aimed at describing imatinib pharmacokinetic variability and its relationship with various biological covariates, especially plasma alpha1-acid glycoprotein (AGP), and at exploring the concentration-response relationship in patients. Methods: A population pharmacokinetic model (NONMEM) including 321 plasma samples from 59 patients was built up and used to derive individual post-hoc Bayesian estimates of drug exposure (AUC; area under curve). Associations between AUC and therapeutic response or tolerability were explored by ordered logistic regression. Influence of the target genotype (i.e. KIT mutation profile) on response was also assessed in GIST patients. Results: A one-compartment model with first-order absorption appropriately described the data, with an average oral clearance of 14.3 L/h (CL) and volume of distribution of 347 L (Vd). A large inter-individual variability remained unexplained, both on CL (36%) and Vd (63%), but AGP levels proved to have a marked impact on total imatinib disposition. Moreover, both total and free AUC correlated with the occurrence and number of side effects (e.g. OR 2.9±0.6 for a 2-fold free AUC increase; p<0.001). Furthermore, in GIST patients, higher free AUC predicted a higher probability of therapeutic response (OR 1.9±0.5; p<0.05), notably in patients with tumor harboring an exon 9 mutation or wild-type KIT, known to decrease tumor sensitivity towards imatinib. Conclusion: The large pharmacokinetic variability, associated to the pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic relationship uncovered are arguments to further investigate the usefulness of individualizing imatinib prescription based on TDM. For this type of drug, it should ideally take into consideration either circulating AGP concentrations or free drug levels, as well as KIT genotype for GIST.

Informal care and labour force participation among middle-aged women in Spain

Informal care is today the form of support most commonly used by those who need other peoplein order to carry out certain activities that are considered basic (eating, dressing, taking a shower,etc.), in Spain and in most other countries in the region. The possible labour opportunity costsincurred by these informal carers, the vast majority of whom are middle-aged women, have not asyet been properly quantified in Spain. It is, however, crucially important to know these quantities ata time when public authorities appear to be determined to extend the coverage offered up to nowas regards long-term care.In this context, we use the Spanish subsample of the European Community Household Panel (1994-2001) to estimate a dynamic ordered probit and so attempt to examine the effects of various typesof informal care on labour behaviour. The results obtained indicate the existence of labouropportunity costs for those women who live with the dependent person they care for, but not forthose who care for someone outside the household. Furthermore, whereas caregiving for morethan a year has negative effects on labour force participation, the same cannot be said of those who start caregiving and stop caregiving .

Interhemispheric distribution of Alzheimer disease and vascular pathology in brain aging

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Most of the neuropathological studies in brain aging were based on the assumption of a symmetrical right-left hemisphere distribution of both Alzheimer disease and vascular pathology. To explore the impact of asymmetrical lesion formation on cognition, we performed a clinicopathological analysis of 153 cases with mixed pathology except macroinfarcts. METHODS: Cognitive status was assessed prospectively using the Clinical Dementia Rating scale; neuropathological evaluation included assessment of Braak neurofibrillary tangle and Ass deposition staging, microvascular pathology, and lacunes. The right-left hemisphere differences in neuropathological scores were evaluated using the Wilcoxon signed rank test. The relationship between the interhemispheric distribution of lesions and Clinical Dementia Rating scores was assessed using ordered logistic regression. RESULTS: Unlike Braak neurofibrillary tangle and Ass deposition staging, vascular scores were significantly higher in the left hemisphere for all Clinical Dementia Rating scores. A negative relationship was found between Braak neurofibrillary tangle, but not Ass staging, and vascular scores in cases with moderate to severe dementia. In both hemispheres, Braak neurofibrillary tangle staging was the main determinant of cognitive decline followed by vascular scores and Ass deposition staging. The concomitant predominance of Alzheimer disease and vascular pathology in the right hemisphere was associated with significantly higher Clinical Dementia Rating scores. CONCLUSIONS: Our data show that the cognitive impact of Alzheimer disease and vascular lesions in mixed cases may be assessed unilaterally without major information loss. However, interhemispheric differences and, in particular, increased vascular and Alzheimer disease burden in the right hemisphere may increase the risk for dementia in this group.

Relationship between obesity and the risk of clinically significant depression: Mendelian randomisation study.

BACKGROUND: Obesity has been shown to be associated with depression and it has been suggested that higher body mass index (BMI) increases the risk of depression and other common mental disorders. However, the causal relationship remains unclear and Mendelian randomisation, a form of instrumental variable analysis, has recently been employed to attempt to resolve this issue. AIMS: To investigate whether higher BMI increases the risk of major depression. METHOD: Two instrumental variable analyses were conducted to test the causal relationship between obesity and major depression in RADIANT, a large case-control study of major depression. We used a single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) in FTO and a genetic risk score (GRS) based on 32 SNPs with well-established associations with BMI. RESULTS: Linear regression analysis, as expected, showed that individuals carrying more risk alleles of FTO or having higher score of GRS had a higher BMI. Probit regression suggested that higher BMI is associated with increased risk of major depression. However, our two instrumental variable analyses did not support a causal relationship between higher BMI and major depression (FTO genotype: coefficient -0.03, 95% CI -0.18 to 0.13, P = 0.73; GRS: coefficient -0.02, 95% CI -0.11 to 0.07, P = 0.62). CONCLUSIONS: Our instrumental variable analyses did not support a causal relationship between higher BMI and major depression. The positive associations of higher BMI with major depression in probit regression analyses might be explained by reverse causality and/or residual confounding.

Comparaisons de projections des niveaux d'incapacité de la population canadienne de 65 ans et plus en 2031

Le vieillissement de la population canadienne prévisible dans les prochaines années entrainera d’importants changements au point de vue social. L’un d’eux est l’augmentation fulgurante du nombre d’aînés en état d’incapacité. Utilisant le modèle de microsimulation LifePaths, cette recherche compare deux projections, ayant des méthodologies différentes, du nombre d’individus en incapacité de 65 ans et plus vivant en ménage privé en 2031. La première méthode utilise le module d’incapacité de LifePaths pour générer les individus en incapacité tandis que la seconde méthode utilise plutôt une régression logistique ordonnée pour les obtenir. Les projections du nombre d’individus en état d’incapacité des deux méthodes nous permettent une comparaison entre ces résultats. Suite à l’élaboration de tableaux et de graphiques permettant de tracer un portait de la situation, cette recherche essaie de démystifier les sources possibles à l’origine de ces différences. Les résultats montrent d’importantes différences entre les projections, spécifiquement pour les individus en état d’incapacité sévère. De plus, lorsqu’on s’intéresse aux variables d’intérêts, on remarque que les différences de projections d’effectifs sont importantes chez les hommes et les gens mariés. Par contre, lorsque les proportions sont analysées, c’est plutôt le groupe d’âges 80 ans et plus ainsi que les projections pour la province du Québec qui créent problème. Ces différences sont attribuables aux caractéristiques d’un modèle de microsimulation, aux populations de départ ainsi qu’aux paramètres définis. Les résultats démontrés dans cette recherche mettent en garde sur les travaux étudiant le nombre d’individus en incapacité dans le futur. Nos deux méthodes ayant des résultats différents, nous ne pouvons pas conclure avec certitude quelle sera la situation dans le futur.

Factors affecting choice of financial services among rural consumers: Emerging experiences from Gicumbi District, northern Province in Rwanda

Enhancement of financial inclusivity of rural communities is often recognised as a key strategy for achieving economic development in third world countries. The main objective of this study was to examine the factors that influence consumers’ choice of a rural bank in Gicumbi district of Rwanda. Data was collected using structured questionnaires and analysed using a binary probit regression model and non-parametric procedures. Most consumers were aware of Popular Bank of Rwanda (BPR) and Umurenge SACCO through radio advertisements, social networks and community meetings. Accessibility, interest rates and quality of services influenced choice of a given financial intermediary. Moreover, the decision to open a rural bank account was significantly influenced by education and farm size (p<0.1). These results indicate the need for financial managers to consider these findings for successful marketing campaigns.