Two-sided learning in New Keynesian models: Dynamics, (lack of) convergence and the value of information

This paper investigates the role of learning by private agents and the central bank(two-sided learning) in a New Keynesian framework in which both sides of the economyhave asymmetric and imperfect knowledge about the true data generating process. Weassume that all agents employ the data that they observe (which may be distinct fordifferent sets of agents) to form beliefs about unknown aspects of the true model ofthe economy, use their beliefs to decide on actions, and revise these beliefs througha statistical learning algorithm as new information becomes available. We study theshort-run dynamics of our model and derive its policy recommendations, particularlywith respect to central bank communications. We demonstrate that two-sided learningcan generate substantial increases in volatility and persistence, and alter the behaviorof the variables in the model in a significant way. Our simulations do not convergeto a symmetric rational expectations equilibrium and we highlight one source thatinvalidates the convergence results of Marcet and Sargent (1989). Finally, we identifya novel aspect of central bank communication in models of learning: communicationcan be harmful if the central bank's model is substantially mis-specified.

Patterns of convergence and divergence in the euro area

We study the extent of macroeconomic convergence/divergence among euro area countries. Our analysis focuses on four variables (unemployment, inflation, relative prices and the current account), and seeks to uncover the role played by monetary union as a convergence factor by using non-euro developed economies and the pre-EMU period as control samples.

Chronological order of appearance of extraintestinal manifestations relative to the time of IBD diagnosis in the Swiss Inflammatory Bowel Disease Cohort

BACKGROUND: Data evaluating the chronological order of appearance of extraintestinal manifestations (EIMs) relative to the time of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) diagnosis is currently lacking. We aimed to assess the type, frequency, and chronological order of appearance of EIMs in patients with IBD. METHODS: Data from the Swiss Inflammatory Bowel Disease Cohort Study were analyzed. RESULTS: The data on 1249 patients were analyzed (49.8% female, median age: 40 [interquartile range, 30-51 yr], 735 [58.8%] with Crohn's disease, 483 [38.7%] with ulcerative colitis, and 31 [2.5%] with indeterminate colitis). A total of 366 patients presented with EIMs (29.3%). Of those, 63.4% presented with 1, 26.5% with 2, 4.9% with 3, 2.5% with 4, and 2.7% with 5 EIMs during their lifetime. Patients presented with the following diseases as first EIMs: peripheral arthritis 70.0%, aphthous stomatitis 21.6%, axial arthropathy/ankylosing spondylitis 16.4%, uveitis 13.7%, erythema nodosum 12.6%, primary sclerosing cholangitis 6.6%, pyoderma gangrenosum 4.9%, and psoriasis 2.7%. In 25.8% of cases, patients presented with their first EIM before IBD was diagnosed (median time 5 mo before IBD diagnosis: range, 0-25 mo), and in 74.2% of cases, the first EIM manifested itself after IBD diagnosis (median: 92 mo; range, 29-183 mo). CONCLUSIONS: In one quarter of patients with IBD, EIMs appeared before the time of IBD diagnosis. Occurrence of EIMs should prompt physicians to look for potential underlying IBD.

Understanding change processes in business networks : a study of convergence in Finnish telecommunications 1985-2005

Aktörer inom telekommunikationsbranschen i Finland har genomgått en intensiv förändring under de senaste 25 åren, från 1980-talets självständiga företag till företag beroende av varandra, och även av aktörer inom närliggande branscher. I dag skapas telekommunikationsmarknaden inte endast av operatörerna, utan också av mediebolag (t.ex. MTV Media) och IT-företag (t.ex. TietoEnator). Gränserna mellan olika industrier håller därmed på att suddas ut - ett fenomen som allmänt benämns som teknologisk konvergens. Konvergens innebär att någonting integreras; det kan handla om t.ex. teknologier (telefoni och Internet), företag (AOL och Time Warner), industrier (telekom, media och IT-branscherna), tjänster (mobilt TV), produkter (PDA) osv. Detta innebär att ytterst få telekomaktörer ensamma kan vidareutveckla marknaden och tekniska lösningar. Samarbete mellan aktörer krävs; mobiltelefontillverkare, innehållsproducenter, operatörer osv. bör intesifiera sitt samarbete för att kunna erbjuda attraktiva tjänster och produkter till kunder och slutanvändare. Avhandlingen fokuserar speciellt på affärsnätverk och samarbetsmönster mellan nätverksaktörer som medel för att få tillgång till resurser som krävs i en konvergenskarakteriserad affärsomgivning. Avhandlingen lyfter fram vad den teknologiska konvergensen har inneburit för telekomaktörer, dvs. att företag tvingats förändra sina strategier och verksamhetsmodeller. För många företag i branschen har anpassningen till konvergenstänkande varit utmanande, och i vissa fall kan man till och med tala om att företagen upplevt en identitetskris. Den utförda forskningen visar att konvergens uppfattas på marknaden som en pågående förändringsprocess, där varje telekomaktör är tvungen att utvärdera sin roll och position i relation till andra aktörer inom branschen. Konvergensprocesser forsätter i framtiden med ökad intensitet. Aktörerna skapar medvetet sin omgivning genom att agera i olika roller, som kan sträcka sig över industrigränser. Avhandlingen påvisar även att externa händelser och industrikontexten påverkar dynamiken i ett affärsnätverk.

The figure of the earth, determined from observations made by order of the French King, at the polar circle: by Messrs de Maupertuis, Camus, Clairaut, Le Monnier, members of the Royal Academy of Sciences, the abbé Outhier, correspondent of the Academy, and Mr. Celsius, professor of astronomy at Upsal : translated from the French of M. de Maupertuis.

Digital reproduction, The National Library of Finland, Centre for Preservation and Digitisation, Mikkeli

An examination of the effects on learning seen in children afforded the opportunity to control the order of repetitions for three novel spatiotemporal sequences

Children were afforded the opportunity to control the order of repetitions for three novel spatiotemporal sequences. The following was predicted: a) children and adults in the self-regulated (SELF) groups would produce faster movement (MT) and reaction times (R T) and greater recall success (RS) during retention compared to the age-matched yoked (YOKE) groups; b) children would choose to switch sequences less often than adults; c) adults would produce faster MT and RT and greater RS than the children during acquisition and retention, independent of experimental group. During acquisition, no effects were seen for RS, however for MT and RT there was a main effect for age as well as block. During retention a main effect for practice condition was seen for RS and failed to reach statistical significance for MT and RT, thus partially supporting our first and second hypotheses. The third hypothesis was not supported.

In Search of Convergence: A Co-citation Analysis of Three Sport Management Journals

Responding to a series of articles in sport management literature calling for more diversity in terms of areas of interest or methods, this study warns against the danger of excessively fragmenting this field of research. The works of Kuhn (1962) and Pfeffer (1993) are taken as the basis of an argument that connects convergence with scientific strength. However, being aware of the large number of counterarguments directed at this line of reasoning, a new model of convergence, which focuses on clusters of research contributions with similar areas of interest, methods, and concepts, is proposed. The existence of these clusters is determined with the help of a bibliometric analysis of publications in three sport management journals. This examination determines that there are justified reasons to be concerned about the level of convergence in the field, pointing out to a reduced ability to create large clusters of contributions in similar areas of interest.

The true history regarding alleged connection of the order of ancient, free and accepted Masons: with the abduction and murder of William Morgan in western New York, in 1826... (1886)

Cover title: Masonic light on the abduction and murder of Wm. Morgan.

Blue book for the use of subordinate divisions of the order of the Sons of Temperenance (1867)

Inscribed on front paste-down: Rothschild division No.227; and in pencil: James Jackson; and on front free endpaper: Presented to James M Clark By Mrs Amanda Burns Robert at Stayner 25 Aug. 1878.

Grand Lodge of Ontario Independent Order of Odd Fellows - William H. Cowan

A certificate from the Grand Lodge of Ontario Independent Order of Odd Fellows to brother William H. Cowan. He has been admitted as a member of Livingstone Lodge No. 130 at Merritton 19 October 1909. The certificate is signed and dated by W. Brooks (Secretary) and S.A. Poplestoise (Grand Master) December 7, 1911. Cowan received the Degree of Truth.

Order of Service for the Honour Roll Unveiling - 10 June, 1945

A dedication service program for those who gave their lives during World War II from the city of St. Catharines. The list of over 150 names was to be read aloud and an address made by the Mayor (W.J. Macdonald) with prayers and hymn to follow.