Bayesian updating rules in continuous opinion dynamics models

Here, I investigate the use of Bayesian updating rules applied to modeling how social agents change their minds in the case of continuous opinion models. Given another agent statement about the continuous value of a variable, we will see that interesting dynamics emerge when an agent assigns a likelihood to that value that is a mixture of a Gaussian and a uniform distribution. This represents the idea that the other agent might have no idea about what is being talked about. The effect of updating only the first moments of the distribution will be studied, and we will see that this generates results similar to those of the bounded confidence models. On also updating the second moment, several different opinions always survive in the long run, as agents become more stubborn with time. However, depending on the probability of error and initial uncertainty, those opinions might be clustered around a central value.

Continuous opinions and discrete actions in opinion dynamics problems

A model where agents show discrete behavior regarding their actions, but have continuous opinions that are updated by interacting with other agents is presented. This new updating rule is applied to both the voter and Sznajd models for interaction between neighbors, and its consequences are discussed. The appearance of extremists is naturally observed and it seems to be a characteristic of this model.

Communism and Public Opinion in Queensland, 1939-1951 : An Explanation of Queensland's Vote in the 1951 Anti-Communist Referendum

The starting point of this thesis was a desire to explain the rapid demise in the popularity which the Communist Party enjoyed in Queensland during the second world war. Wartime Queensland gave the Australian Communist Party its highest state vote and six years later Queensland again gave the Communist Party its highest state vote - this time however, to ban the Party. From this I was led into exploring the changing policies, beliefs and strategies of the Party, as well as the many sub-groups on its periphery, and the shifts in public response to these. In 1939 Townsville elected Australia's first Communist alderman. Five years later, Bowen elected not only Australia's first but also the British Empire's first, Communist state government member. Of the five electorates the Australian Communist Party contested in the 1944 Queensland State elections, in none did the Party's candidate receive less than twenty per-cent of the formal vote. Not only was the Party seemingly enjoying considerable popular support but this was occurring in a State which, but for the Depression years (May 1929 - June 1932) had elected a Labor State Government at every state election since 1915. In the September 1951 Constitution Alteration Referendum, 'Powers To Deal With Communists and Communism', Queensland regist¬ered the nation's highest "Yes" majority - 55.76% of the valid vote. Only two other states registered a majority in favour of the referendum's proposals, Western Australia and Tasmania. As this research was undertaken it became evident that while various trends exhibited at the time, anti-Communism, the work of the Industrial Groups, Labor opportunism, local area feelings, ideological shifts of the Party, tactics of Communist-led unions, etc., were present throughout the entire period, they were best seen when divided into three chronological phases of the Party's history and popularity. The first period covers the consolidation of the Party's post-Depression popularity during the war years as it benefited from the Soviet Union's colossal contribution to the Allied war efforts, and this support continued for some six months or so after the war. Throughout the period Communist strength within the trade union movement greatly increased as did total Party membership. The second period was marked by a rapid series of events starting in March 1946, with Winston Churchill's "Official Opening" of the Cold War by his sweeping attack on Communism and Russia, at Fulton. Several days later the first of a series of long and bitter strikes in Communist-led unions occurred, as the Party mobil¬ized for what it believed would be a series of attacks on the working class from a ruling class, defending a capitalist system on the verge of an economic collapse. It was a period when the Party believed this ruling class was using Labor reformism as a last desperate 'carrot' to get workers to accept their lot within a capitalist economic framework. Out of the Meat Strike emerged the Industrial Groups, who waged not only a determined war against Communist trade union leadership but also encouraged the A.W.U.-influenced State Labor apparatus to even greater anti-Communist antagonisms. The Communist Party's increasing militancy and Labor's resistance to it, ended finally in the collapse of the Chifley Labor government. Characteristically the third period opens with the Communist Party making an another about-face, desperately trying to form an alliance with the Labor Party and curbing its former adventurist industrial policy, as it prepared for Menzies' direct assault. The Communist Party's activities were greatly reduced, a function of both a declining member-ship and, furthermore, a membership reluctant to confront an increasingly hostile society. In examining the changing policies, beliefs and strategies of the Party and the shifts in public response to these, I have tried to distinguish between general trends occurring within Australia and the national party, and trends peculiar to Queensland and the Queensland branch of the Party, The Communist Party suffered a decline in support and membership right across Australia throughout this period as a result of the national policies of the Party, and the changing nature of world politics. There were particular features of this decline that were peculiar to Queensland. I have, however, singled out three features of particular importance throughout the period for a short but more specifically detailed analysis, than would be possible in a purely chronological study: i.e. the Party's structure, the Party's ideological subservience to Moscow, and the general effect upon it of the Cold War.

Combining GIS and Expert Opinion to Model Landscapes for a Smallholder Forest Extension Program in Leyte, the Philippines

A Geographic Information System (GIS) was used to model datasets of Leyte Island, the Philippines, to identify land which was suitable for a forest extension program on the island. The datasets were modelled to provide maps of the distance of land from cities and towns, land which was a suitable elevation and slope for smallholder forestry and land of various soil types. An expert group was used to assign numeric site suitabilities to the soil types and maps of site suitability were used to assist the selection of municipalities for the provision of extension assistance to smallholders. Modelling of the datasets was facilitated by recent developments of the ArcGIS® suite of computer programs and derivation of elevation and slope was assisted by the availability of digital elevation models (DEM) produced by the Shuttle Radar Topography (SRTM) mission. The usefulness of GIS software as a decision support tool for small-scale forestry extension programs is discussed.

Scientists as policy-makers: Towards a new partnership

There is an urgent need to link social science research with policy making to address many key issues confronting countries across the globe. Policy makers need the benefit of social science research which is relevant, timely, transdisciplinary, methodologically capable of capturing global and local trends, swift to respond to fundamental issues, and offering findings which are clearly articulated, effectively disseminated, and oriented to outcomes. For this a new partnership is needed between social scientists and policy makers. We can gain a clearer picture of the nature of this desired partnership by probing the dichotomy between the world of science and the world of policy making. The experience of UNESCO and its programme Management of Social Transformations provides some valuable lessons.

Debiasing the outcome effect: The role of instructions in an audit litigation setting

The outcome effect occurs where an evaluator, who has knowledge of the outcome of a judge's decision , assesses the quality of the judgment of that decision maker. If the evaluator has knowledge of a negative outcome, then that knowledge negatively influences his or her assessment of the ex ante judgment. For instance, jurors in a lawsuit brought against an auditor for alleged negligence are informed of an undetected fraud, even though an unqualified opinion was issued. This paper reports the results of an experiment in an applied audit judgment setting that examined methods of mitigating the outcome effect by means of instructions. The results showed that simply instructing or warning the evaluator about the potential biasing effects of outcome information was only weakly effective. However, instructions that stressed either (1) the cognitive non-normativeness of the outcome effect or (2) the seriousness and gravity of the evaluation ameliorated the effect significantly. From a theoretical perspective, the results suggest that there may both motivational and cognitive components to the outcome effect. In all, the findings suggest awareness of the outcome effect and use of relatively nonintrusive instructions to evaluators may effectively counteract the potential for the outcome bias.

The Utility of the Human Security Agenda for Policy-makers

The idea of “human security” is gaining attention among policy-makers and security analysts. Little scholarly attention has been given to the questions of why states accept (or reject) a human security agenda or how such an agenda is incorporated into policy practices. The article suggests that a human security approach is most likely to be applied when both humanitarian and national interests combine. Yet when states or organisations adopt a human security approach, they often misjudge the complex and long-term commitment required of such an approach. There is also the potential for such an agenda to be manipulated to justify questionable courses of action. These issues frame an analysis of six recent case studies.

Public opinion and foreign policy in João Goulart's Brazil (1961-1964): Coherence between national and foreign policy perceptions?

Abstract This paper analyses public opinion during the João Goulart government in Brazil (1961-1964), focusing on public perceptions on domestic and foreign policies. We employ a recently declassified public opinion survey conducted on behalf of United States Information Agency (USIA) in urban areas. We found that the Brazilian public opinion was somewhat coherent, supporting redistributive reforms domestically and a neutralist approach in foreign affairs.

Brazilian doctors' perspective on the second opinion strategy before a C-section

OBJECTIVE: To describe the opinion of doctors who participated in the Latin American Study on Cesarean section in Brazil regarding the second opinion strategy when faced with the decision of performing a C-section. METHODS: Seventy-two doctors from the hospitals where the study took place (where the second opinion was routinely sought) and 70 from the control group answered a pre-tested self-administered structured questionnaire. Descriptive tables were prepared based on the frequency of relevant variables on opinion of physicians regarding: effectiveness of the application of the second opinion strategy; on whether they would recommend implementation of this strategy and reasons for not recommending it in private institutions; feasibility of the strategy implementation and reasons for not considering this implementation feasible in private institutions. RESULTS: Half of the doctors from the intervention hospitals (50%) and about two thirds of those in the control group (65%) evaluated the second opinion as being or having the potential of being effective/very effective in their institutions. The great majority of those interviewed from both intervention and control hospitals considered this strategy feasible in public (87% and 95% respectively) but not in private hospitals (64% and 70% respectively), mainly because in the latter the doctors would not accept interference from a colleague in their decision-making process. CONCLUSION: Although the second opinion strategy was perceived as effective in reducing C-section rates, doctors did not regard it feasible outside the public health system in Brazil.

Expert opinion on best practice guidelines and competency framework for visual screening in children

PURPOSE: Screening programs to detect visual abnormalities in children vary among countries. The aim of this study is to describe experts' perception of best practice guidelines and competency framework for visual screening in children. METHODS: A qualitative focus group technique was applied during the Portuguese national orthoptic congress to obtain the perception of an expert panel of 5 orthoptists and 2 ophthalmologists with experience in visual screening for children (mean age 53.43 years, SD ± 9.40). The panel received in advance a script with the description of three tuning competencies dimensions (instrumental, systemic, and interpersonal) for visual screening. The session was recorded in video and audio. Qualitative data were analyzed using a categorical technique. RESULTS: According to experts' views, six tests (35.29%) have to be included in a visual screening: distance visual acuity test, cover test, bi-prism or 4/6(Δ) prism, fusion, ocular movements, and refraction. Screening should be performed according to the child age before and after 3 years of age (17.65%). The expert panel highlighted the influence of the professional experience in the application of a screening protocol (23.53%). They also showed concern about the false negatives control (23.53%). Instrumental competencies were the most cited (54.09%), followed by interpersonal (29.51%) and systemic (16.4%). CONCLUSIONS: Orthoptists should have professional experience before starting to apply a screening protocol. False negative results are a concern that has to be more thoroughly investigated. The proposed framework focuses on core competencies highlighted by the expert panel. Competencies programs could be important do develop better screening programs.

Reply to letter to the Editor: Expert opinion on best practice guidelines and competency framework for visual screening in children

The aim of this study was to describe experts’ perception of best-practice guidelines and competency framework for visual screening in children. This study uses qualitative data and shows individual/ group conceptualization. The use of evidence from qualitative studies has traditionally been a fundamental source of knowledge in the clinical and social sciences.

An environmental atlas of Albania

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies