Aerosol optical depths over North Africa: 2. Modeling and model validation

An operational dust forecasting model is developed by including the Met Office Hadley Centre climate model dust parameterization scheme, within a Met Office regional numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. The model includes parameterizations for dust uplift, dust transport, and dust deposition in six discrete size bins and provides diagnostics such as the aerosol optical depth. The results are compared against surface and satellite remote sensing measurements and against in situ measurements from the Facility for Atmospheric Airborne Measurements for a case study when a strong dust event was forecast. Comparisons are also performed against satellite and surface instrumentation for the entire month of August. The case study shows that this Saharan dust NWP model can provide very good guidance of dust events, as much as 42 h ahead. The analysis of monthly data suggests that the mean and variability in the dust model is also well represented.

Validation of ocean model syntheses against hydrography using a new web application

Results are presented from a new web application called OceanDIVA - Ocean Data Intercomparison and Visualization Application. This tool reads hydrographic profiles and ocean model output and presents the data on either depth levels or isotherms for viewing in Google Earth, or as probability density functions (PDFs) of regional model-data misfits. As part of the CLIVAR Global Synthesis and Observations Panel, an intercomparison of water mass properties of various ocean syntheses has been undertaken using OceanDIVA. Analysis of model-data misfits reveals significant differences between the water mass properties of the syntheses, such as the ability to capture mode water properties.

Validation of the FALL3D ash dispersion model using observations of the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull volcanic ash clouds

During April-May 2010 volcanic ash clouds from the Icelandic Eyjafjallajökull volcano reached Europe causing an unprecedented disruption of the EUR/NAT region airspace. Civil aviation authorities banned all flight operations because of the threat posed by volcanic ash to modern turbine aircraft. New quantitative airborne ash mass concentration thresholds, still under discussion, were adopted for discerning regions contaminated by ash. This has implications for ash dispersal models routinely used to forecast the evolution of ash clouds. In this new context, quantitative model validation and assessment of the accuracies of current state-of-the-art models is of paramount importance. The passage of volcanic ash clouds over central Europe, a territory hosting a dense network of meteorological and air quality observatories, generated a quantity of observations unusual for volcanic clouds. From the ground, the cloud was observed by aerosol lidars, lidar ceilometers, sun photometers, other remote-sensing instru- ments and in-situ collectors. From the air, sondes and multiple aircraft measurements also took extremely valuable in-situ and remote-sensing measurements. These measurements constitute an excellent database for model validation. Here we validate the FALL3D ash dispersal model by comparing model results with ground and airplane-based measurements obtained during the initial 14e23 April 2010 Eyjafjallajökull explosive phase. We run the model at high spatial resolution using as input hourly- averaged observed heights of the eruption column and the total grain size distribution reconstructed from field observations. Model results are then compared against remote ground-based and in-situ aircraft-based measurements, including lidar ceilometers from the German Meteorological Service, aerosol lidars and sun photometers from EARLINET and AERONET networks, and flight missions of the German DLR Falcon aircraft. We find good quantitative agreement, with an error similar to the spread in the observations (however depending on the method used to estimate mass eruption rate) for both airborne and ground mass concentration. Such verification results help us understand and constrain the accuracy and reliability of ash transport models and it is of enormous relevance for designing future operational mitigation strategies at Volcanic Ash Advisory Centers.

A reprocessing for climate of sea surface temperature from the Along-Track Scanning Radiometers: initial validation, accounting for skin and diurnal variability

An initial validation of the Along Track Scanning Radiometer (ATSR) Reprocessing for Climate (ARC) retrievals of sea surface temperature (SST) is presented. ATSR-2 and Advanced ATSR (AATSR) SST estimates are compared to drifting buoy and moored buoy observations over the period 1995 to 2008. The primary ATSR estimates are of skin SST, whereas buoys measure SST below the surface. Adjustment is therefore made for the skin effect, for diurnal stratification and for differences in buoy–satellite observation time. With such adjustments, satellite-in situ differences are consistent between day and night within ~ 0.01 K. Satellite-in situ differences are correlated with differences in observation time, because of the diurnal warming and cooling of the ocean. The data are used to verify the average behaviour of physical and empirical models of the warming/cooling rates. Systematic differences between adjusted AATSR and in-situ SSTs against latitude, total column water vapour (TCWV), and wind speed are less than 0.1 K, for all except the most extreme cases (TCWV < 5 kg m–2, TCWV > 60 kg m–2). For all types of retrieval except the nadir-only two-channel (N2), regional biases are less than 0.1 K for 80% of the ocean. Global comparison against drifting buoys shows night time dual-view two-channel (D2) SSTs are warm by 0.06 ± 0.23 K and dual-view three-channel (D3) SSTs are warm by 0.06 ± 0.21 K (day-time D2: 0.07 ± 0.23 K). Nadir-only results are N2: 0.03 ± 0.33 K and N3: 0.03 ± 0.19 K showing the improved inter-algorithm consistency to ~ 0.02 K. This represents a marked improvement from the existing operational retrieval algorithms for which inter-algorithm inconsistency is > 0.5 K. Comparison against tropical moored buoys, which are more accurate than drifting buoys, gives lower error estimates (N3: 0.02 ± 0.13 K, D2: 0.03 ± 0.18 K). Comparable results are obtained for ATSR-2, except that the ATSR-2 SSTs are around 0.1 K warm compared to AATSR

Sea surface temperature estimation from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite 12 (GOES-12)

This paper describes the techniques used to obtain sea surface temperature (SST) retrievals from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite 12 (GOES-12) at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Office of Satellite Data Processing and Distribution. Previous SST retrieval techniques relying on channels at 11 and 12 μm are not applicable because GOES-12 lacks the latter channel. Cloud detection is performed using a Bayesian method exploiting fast-forward modeling of prior clear-sky radiances using numerical weather predictions. The basic retrieval algorithm used at nighttime is based on a linear combination of brightness temperatures at 3.9 and 11 μm. In comparison with traditional split window SSTs (using 11- and 12-μm channels), simulations show that this combination has maximum scatter when observing drier colder scenes, with a comparable overall performance. For daytime retrieval, the same algorithm is applied after estimating and removing the contribution to brightness temperature in the 3.9-μm channel from solar irradiance. The correction is based on radiative transfer simulations and comprises a parameterization for atmospheric scattering and a calculation of ocean surface reflected radiance. Potential use of the 13-μm channel for SST is shown in a simulation study: in conjunction with the 3.9-μm channel, it can reduce the retrieval error by 30%. Some validation results are shown while a companion paper by Maturi et al. shows a detailed analysis of the validation results for the operational algorithms described in this present article.

GDP 4.0 transfer to SGP 3.0 for SCIAMACHY no2 column processing: Verification with SDOAS / GDOAS prototype algorithms and delta-validation with NDACC / UV-visible network data

Until mid 2006, SCIAMACHY data processors for the operational retrieval of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) column data were based on the historical version 2 of the GOME Data Processor (GDP). On top of known problems inherent to GDP 2, ground-based validations of SCIAMACHY NO2 data revealed issues specific to SCIAMACHY, like a large cloud-dependent offset occurring at Northern latitudes. In 2006, the GDOAS prototype algorithm of the improved GDP version 4 was transferred to the off-line SCIAMACHY Ground Processor (SGP) version 3.0. In parallel, the calibration of SCIAMACHY radiometric data was upgraded. Before operational switch-on of SGP 3.0 and public release of upgraded SCIAMACHY NO2 data, we have investigated the accuracy of the algorithm transfer: (a) by checking the consistency of SGP 3.0 with prototype algorithms; and (b) by comparing SGP 3.0 NO2 data with ground-based observations reported by the WMO/GAW NDACC network of UV-visible DOAS/SAOZ spectrometers. This delta-validation study concludes that SGP 3.0 is a significant improvement with respect to the previous processor IPF 5.04. For three particular SCIAMACHY states, the study reveals unexplained features in the slant columns and air mass factors, although the quantitative impact on SGP 3.0 vertical columns is not significant.

Validation of a modified AVHRR aerosol optical depth retrieval algorithm over Central Europe

The Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) carried on board the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the Meteorological Operational Satellite (MetOp) polar orbiting satellites is the only instrument offering more than 25 years of satellite data to analyse aerosols on a daily basis. The present study assessed a modified AVHRR aerosol optical depth τa retrieval over land for Europe. The algorithm might also be applied to other parts of the world with similar surface characteristics like Europe, only the aerosol properties would have to be adapted to a new region. The initial approach used a relationship between Sun photometer measurements from the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) and the satellite data to post-process the retrieved τa. Herein a quasi-stand-alone procedure, which is more suitable for the pre-AERONET era, is presented. In addition, the estimation of surface reflectance, the aerosol model, and other processing steps have been adapted. The method's cross-platform applicability was tested by validating τa from NOAA-17 and NOAA-18 AVHRR at 15 AERONET sites in Central Europe (40.5° N–50° N, 0° E–17° E) from August 2005 to December 2007. Furthermore, the accuracy of the AVHRR retrieval was related to products from two newer instruments, the Medium Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MERIS) on board the Environmental Satellite (ENVISAT) and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on board Aqua/Terra. Considering the linear correlation coefficient R, the AVHRR results were similar to those of MERIS with even lower root mean square error RMSE. Not surprisingly, MODIS, with its high spectral coverage, gave the highest R and lowest RMSE. Regarding monthly averaged τa, the results were ambiguous. Focusing on small-scale structures, R was reduced for all sensors, whereas the RMSE solely for MERIS substantially increased. Regarding larger areas like Central Europe, the error statistics were similar to the individual match-ups. This was mainly explained with sampling issues. With the successful validation of AVHRR we are now able to concentrate on our large data archive dating back to 1985. This is a unique opportunity for both climate and air pollution studies over land surfaces.

Development and validation of a real-time quantitative PCR assay for rapid identification of Bacillus anthracis in environmental samples

A real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assay was developed for rapid identification of Bacillus anthracis in environmental samples. These samples often harbor Bacillus cereus bacteria closely related to B. anthracis, which may hinder its specific identification by resulting in false positive signals. The assay consists of two duplex real-time PCR: the first PCR allows amplification of a sequence specific of the B. cereus group (B. anthracis, B. cereus, Bacillus thuringiensis, Bacillus weihenstephanensis, Bacillus pseudomycoides, and Bacillus mycoides) within the phosphoenolpyruvate/sugar phosphotransferase system I gene and a B. anthracis specific single nucleotide polymorphism within the adenylosuccinate synthetase gene. The second real-time PCR assay targets the lethal factor gene from virulence plasmid pXO1 and the capsule synthesis gene from virulence plasmid pXO2. Specificity of the assay is enhanced by the use of minor groove binding probes and/or locked nucleic acids probes. The assay was validated on 304 bacterial strains including 37 B. anthracis, 67 B. cereus group, 54 strains of non-cereus group Bacillus, and 146 Gram-positive and Gram-negative bacteria strains. The assay was performed on various environmental samples spiked with B. anthracis or B. cereus spores. The assay allowed an accurate identification of B. anthracis in environmental samples. This study provides a rapid and reliable method for improving rapid identification of B. anthracis in field operational conditions.

Analysis and validation of CFD wind farm models in complex terrain. Effects induced by topography and wind turbines

Wind farms have been extensively simulated through engineering models for the estimation of wind speed and power deficits inside wind farms. These models were designed initially for a few wind turbines located in flat terrain. Other models based on the parabolic approximation of Navier Stokes equations were developed, making more realistic and feasible the operational resolution of big wind farms in flat terrain and offshore sites. These models have demonstrated to be accurate enough when solving wake effects for this type of environments. Nevertheless, few analyses exist on how complex terrain can affect the behaviour of wind farm wake flow. Recent numerical studies have demonstrated that topographical wakes induce a significant effect on wind turbines wakes, compared to that on flat terrain. This circumstance has recommended the development of elliptic CFD models which allow global simulation of wind turbine wakes in complex terrain. An accurate simplification for the analysis of wind turbine wakes is the actuator disk technique. Coupling this technique with CFD wind models enables the estimation of wind farm wakes preserving the extraction of axial momentum present inside wind farms. This paper describes the analysis and validation of the elliptical wake model CFDWake 1.0 against experimental data from an operating wind farm located in complex terrain. The analysis also reports whether it is possible or not to superimpose linearly the effect of terrain and wind turbine wakes. It also represents one of the first attempts to observe the performance of engineering models compares in large complex terrain wind farms.

An operational approach to object-oriented software development

The traditional waterfall software life cycle model has several weaknesses. One problem is that a working version of a system is unavailable until a late stage in the development; any omissions and mistakes in the specification undetected until that stage can be costly to maintain. The operational approach which emphasises the construction of executable specifications can help to remedy this problem. An operational specification may be exercised to generate the behaviours of the specified system, thereby serving as a prototype to facilitate early validation of the system's functional requirements. Recent ideas have centred on using an existing operational method such as JSD in the specification phase of object-oriented development. An explicit transformation phase following specification is necessary in this approach because differences in abstractions between the two domains need to be bridged. This research explores an alternative approach of developing an operational specification method specifically for object-oriented development. By incorporating object-oriented concepts in operational specifications, the specifications have the advantage of directly facilitating implementation in an object-oriented language without requiring further significant transformations. In addition, object-oriented concepts can help the developer manage the complexity of the problem domain specification, whilst providing the user with a specification that closely reflects the real world and so the specification and its execution can be readily understood and validated. A graphical notation has been developed for the specification method which can capture the dynamic properties of an object-oriented system. A tool has also been implemented comprising an editor to facilitate the input of specifications, and an interpreter which can execute the specifications and graphically animate the behaviours of the specified systems.

Experiences in using a contingency factor-based validation methodology for spreadsheet DSS

The use of spreadsheets has become routine in all aspects of business with usage growing across a range of functional areas and a continuing trend towards end user spreadsheet development. However, several studies have raised concerns about the accuracy of spreadsheet models in general, and of end user developed applications in particular, raising the risk element for users. High error rates have been discovered, even though the users/developers were confident that their spreadsheets were correct. The lack of an easy to use, context-sensitive validation methodology has been highlighted as a significant contributor to the problems of accuracy. This paper describes experiences in using a practical, contingency factor-based methodology for validation of spreadsheet-based DSS. Because the end user is often both the system developer and a stakeholder, the contingency factor-based validation methodology may need to be used in more than one way. The methodology can also be extended to encompass other DSS.

Seasonal dynamics and operational monitoring of hedgerow olive tree transpiration in response to applied water

We used 2012 sap flow measurements to assess the seasonal dynamics of daily plant transpiration (ETc) in a high-density olive orchard (Olea europaea L. cv. ‘Arbequina’) with a well-watered (HI) control treatment A to supply 100 % of the crop water needs, and a moderately (MI) watered treatment B that replaced 70% of crop needs. To assure that treatment A was well-watered, we compared field daily ETc values against ETc obtained with the Penman-Monteith (PM) combination equation incorporating the Orgaz et al. (2007) bulk daily canopy conductance (gc) model, validated for our non-limiting conditions. We then tested the hypothesis of indirectly monitoring olive ETc from readily available vegetation index (VI) and ground-based plant water stress indicator. In the process we used the FAO56 dual crop coefficient (Kc) approach. For the HI olive trees we defined Kcb as the basal transpiration coefficient, and we related Kcb to remotely sensed Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index (SAVI) through a Kcb-SAVI functional relationship. For the MI treatment, we defined the actual transpiration ETc as the product of Kcb and the stress reduction coefficient Ks obtained as the ratio of actual to crop ETc, and we correlated Ks with MI midday stem water potential (ψst) values through a Ks-ψ functional relationship. Operational monitoring of ETc was then implemented with the ETc = Kcb(SAVI)Ks(ψ)ETo relationship stemmed from the FAO56 approach and validated taking as inputs collected SAVI and ψst data reporting to year 2011. Low validation error (6%) and high goodness-of-fit of prediction were observed (R2 = 0.94, RSME = 0.2 mm day-1, P = 0.0015), allowing to consider that under field conditions it is possible to predict ETc values for our hedgerow olive orchards if SAVI and water potential (ψst) values are known.

Selection And Validation Of Reference Genes For Functional Studies In The Calliphoridae Family.

The genera Cochliomyia and Chrysomya contain both obligate and saprophagous flies, which allows the comparison of different feeding habits between closely related species. Among the different strategies for comparing these habits is the use of qPCR to investigate the expression levels of candidate genes involved in feeding behavior. To ensure an accurate measure of the levels of gene expression, it is necessary to normalize the amount of the target gene with the amount of a reference gene having a stable expression across the compared species. Since there is no universal gene that can be used as a reference in functional studies, candidate genes for qPCR data normalization were selected and validated in three Calliphoridae (Diptera) species, Cochliomyia hominivorax Coquerel, Cochliomyia macellaria Fabricius, and Chrysomya albiceps Wiedemann . The expression stability of six genes ( Actin, Gapdh, Rp49, Rps17, α -tubulin, and GstD1) was evaluated among species within the same life stage and between life stages within each species. The expression levels of Actin, Gapdh, and Rp49 were the most stable among the selected genes. These genes can be used as reliable reference genes for functional studies in Calliphoridae using similar experimental settings.

Preclinical Target Validation Using Patient-derived Cells.

The Structural Genomics Consortium (SGC) and its clinical, industry and disease-foundation partners are launching open-source preclinical translational medicine studies.

Tradução, adaptação cultural e validação da escala Moorong Self-Efficacy Scale (MSES) para o português no Brasil = : Translation, cultural adaptation and validation of Moorong Self-Efficacy Scale (MSES) into Brazilian Portuguese

Universidade Estadual de Campinas . Faculdade de Educação Física