Protocol for the modeling the epidemiologic transition study: a longitudinal observational study of energy balance and change in body weight, diabetes and cardiovascular disease risk.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: The prevalence of obesity has increased in societies of all socio-cultural backgrounds. To date, guidelines set forward to prevent obesity have universally emphasized optimal levels of physical activity. However there are few empirical data to support the assertion that low levels of energy expenditure in activity is a causal factor in the current obesity epidemic are very limited. METHODS: The Modeling the Epidemiologic Transition Study (METS) is a cohort study designed to assess the association between physical activity levels and relative weight, weight gain and diabetes and cardiovascular disease risk in five population-based samples at different stages of economic development. Twenty-five hundred young adults, ages 25-45, were enrolled in the study; 500 from sites in Ghana, South Africa, Seychelles, Jamaica and the United States. At baseline, physical activity levels were assessed using accelerometry and a questionnaire in all participants and by doubly labeled water in a subsample of 75 per site. We assessed dietary intake using two separate 24-h recalls, body composition using bioelectrical impedance analysis, and health history, social and economic indicators by questionnaire. Blood pressure was measured and blood samples collected for measurement of lipids, glucose, insulin and adipokines. Full examination including physical activity using accelerometry, anthropometric data and fasting glucose will take place at 12 and 24 months. The distribution of the main variables and the associations between physical activity, independent of energy intake, glucose metabolism and anthropometric measures will be assessed using cross-section and longitudinal analysis within and between sites. DISCUSSION: METS will provide insight on the relative contribution of physical activity and diet to excess weight, age-related weight gain and incident glucose impairment in five populations' samples of young adults at different stages of economic development. These data should be useful for the development of empirically-based public health policy aimed at the prevention of obesity and associated chronic diseases.

When to initiate combined antiretroviral therapy to reduce mortality and AIDS-defining illness in HIV-infected persons in developed countries: an observational study.

BACKGROUND: Most clinical guidelines recommend that AIDS-free, HIV-infected persons with CD4 cell counts below 0.350 × 10(9) cells/L initiate combined antiretroviral therapy (cART), but the optimal CD4 cell count at which cART should be initiated remains a matter of debate. OBJECTIVE: To identify the optimal CD4 cell count at which cART should be initiated. DESIGN: Prospective observational data from the HIV-CAUSAL Collaboration and dynamic marginal structural models were used to compare cART initiation strategies for CD4 thresholds between 0.200 and 0.500 × 10(9) cells/L. SETTING: HIV clinics in Europe and the Veterans Health Administration system in the United States. PATIENTS: 20, 971 HIV-infected, therapy-naive persons with baseline CD4 cell counts at or above 0.500 × 10(9) cells/L and no previous AIDS-defining illnesses, of whom 8392 had a CD4 cell count that decreased into the range of 0.200 to 0.499 × 10(9) cells/L and were included in the analysis. MEASUREMENTS: Hazard ratios and survival proportions for all-cause mortality and a combined end point of AIDS-defining illness or death. RESULTS: Compared with initiating cART at the CD4 cell count threshold of 0.500 × 10(9) cells/L, the mortality hazard ratio was 1.01 (95% CI, 0.84 to 1.22) for the 0.350 threshold and 1.20 (CI, 0.97 to 1.48) for the 0.200 threshold. The corresponding hazard ratios were 1.38 (CI, 1.23 to 1.56) and 1.90 (CI, 1.67 to 2.15), respectively, for the combined end point of AIDS-defining illness or death. Limitations: CD4 cell count at cART initiation was not randomized. Residual confounding may exist. CONCLUSION: Initiation of cART at a threshold CD4 count of 0.500 × 10(9) cells/L increases AIDS-free survival. However, mortality did not vary substantially with the use of CD4 thresholds between 0.300 and 0.500 × 10(9) cells/L.

Do orthopaedic shoes improve local dynamic stability of gait? An observational study in patients with chronic foot and ankle injuries.

BACKGROUND: Complex foot and ankle fractures, such as calcaneum fractures or Lisfranc dislocations, are often associated with a poor outcome, especially in terms of gait capacity. Indeed, degenerative changes often lead to chronic pain and chronic functional limitations. Prescription footwear represents an important therapeutic tool during the rehabilitation process. Local Dynamic Stability (LDS) is the ability of locomotor system to maintain continuous walking by accommodating small perturbations that occur naturally during walking. Because it reflects the degree of control over the gait, LDS has been advocated as a relevant indicator for evaluating different conditions and pathologies. The aim of this study was to analyze changes in LDS induced by orthopaedic shoes in patients with persistent foot and ankle injuries. We hypothesised that footwear adaptation might help patients to improve gait control, which could lead to higher LDS: METHODS: Twenty-five middle-aged inpatients (5 females, 20 males) participated in the study. They were treated for chronic post-traumatic disabilities following ankle and/or foot fractures in a Swiss rehabilitation clinic. During their stay, included inpatients received orthopaedic shoes with custom-made orthoses (insoles). They performed two 30s walking trials with standard shoes and two 30s trials with orthopaedic shoes. A triaxial motion sensor recorded 3D accelerations at the lower back level. LDS was assessed by computing divergence exponents in the acceleration signals (maximal Lyapunov exponents). Pain was evaluated with Visual Analogue Scale (VAS). LDS and pain differences between the trials with standard shoes and the trials with orthopaedic shoes were assessed. RESULTS: Orthopaedic shoes significantly improved LDS in the three axes (medio-lateral: 10% relative change, paired t-test p < 0.001; vertical: 9%, p = 0.03; antero-posterior: 7%, p = 0.04). A significant decrease in pain level (VAS score -29%) was observed. CONCLUSIONS: Footwear adaptation led to pain relief and to improved foot & ankle proprioception. It is likely that that enhancement allows patients to better control foot placement. As a result, higher dynamic stability has been observed. LDS seems therefore a valuable index that could be used in early evaluation of footwear outcome in clinical settings.

Time standards of nursing in Primary Health Care: an observational study

Abstract OBJECTIVE To determine time standards for interventions and activities conducted by nursing professionals in Family Health Units (FHU) in Brazil to substantiate the calculation of work force. METHOD This was an observational study carried out in 27 FHU, in 12 municipalities in 10 states, in 2013. In each unit, nursing professionals were observed every 10 minutes, for eight work hours, on five consecutive days via the work sampling technique. RESULTS A total of 32,613 observations were made, involving 47 nurses and 93 nursing technicians/assistants. Appointments were the main intervention carried out by nurses, with a mean time of 25.3 minutes, followed by record-keeping, which corresponded to 9.7%. On average, nursing technicians/assistants spent 6.3% of their time keeping records and 30.6 intervention minutes on immunization/vaccination control. CONCLUSION The study resulted in standard times of interventions carried out by the FHU nursing team, which can underpin the determination of nursing staff size and human resource policies. Furthermore, the study showed the panorama of interventions currently employed, allowing for the work process to be reviewed and optimized.

Observational study on the consumption of recreational drugs and alcohol by Swiss travelers.

BACKGROUND: Studies carried out on specific travelers' groups such as students describe an increase in the consumption of alcohol and drugs during travel and vacation time. The present study investigates the risk behaviors (alcohol and drugs) in a general adult population in Switzerland travelling abroad who visited a travel clinic before departure. METHODS: This retrospective study was conducted in a travel clinic between January 2006 and December 2008. 14,496 patients came to the clinic for a pre-travel consultation. 3,537 of them answered a questionnaire about their life habits in Switzerland and during their last trip. The only exclusion criterion was an age inferior to 18 years old.The consumption habits of drugs and at-risk alcohol intake (8 standard drinks (SD) per week for women and 15 SD for men) was analyzed according to gender, sex, destination and profession. Predictors of adopting a risky behavior between habits in Switzerland and during their previous trip were also analyzed. RESULTS: 7% (229/3477) of participants declared having at-risk alcohol consumption in Switzerland and 14% (473/3275 [95% CI 13-16]) during their trip. 9% (332/3527) of the participants used drugs in Switzerland and 5% (178/3481) during their trip. Risk factors for at-risk alcohol consumption during a trip were: at-risk alcohol consumption in Switzerland (OR 31[95% CI 21-45]), smoking (1.7 [95% CI 1-2]), use of drugs in Switzerland (OR 2.2 [95% CI 2-3]), leisure travel (OR 1.6 [95% CI 1-2]) and managerial professions (OR 1.8 [95% CI 1-3]). Risk factors for the use of drugs during a trip were: alcohol consumption in Switzerland (OR 2.1 [95% CI 1-4]), smoking (OR 1.9 [95% CI 1-3]), and use of drugs in Switzerland (OR 29.7 [95% CI 19-45]). CONCLUSIONS: At-risk alcohol consumption and, to a lesser extent, use of drugs, affect a large number of travelers which expose them to health problems during a trip. Exploring the alcohol and drugs consumption patterns of people visiting a travel clinic should be part of the pre-travel routine consultation and would allow to identifying people who would benefit most from a specific prevention.

An observational study of the 7 September 2005 Barcelona tornado outbreak

This paper presents an observational study of the tornado outbreak that took place on the 7 September 2005 in the Llobregat delta river, affecting a densely populated and urbanised area and the Barcelona International airport (NE Spain). The site survey confirmed at least five short-lived tornadoes. Four of them were weak (F0, F1) and the other one was significant (F2 on the Fujita scale). They started mostly as waterspouts and moved later inland causing extensive damage estimated in 9 million Euros, three injured people but fortunately no fatalities. Large scale forcing was provided by upper level diffluence and low level warm air advection. Satellite and weather radar images revealed the development of the cells that spawned the waterspouts along a mesoscale convergence line in a highly sheared and relatively low buoyant environment. Further analysis indicated characteristics that could be attributed indistinctively to non-supercell or to mini-supercell thunderstorms.

Head-to-head comparison of length of stay, patients' outcome and satisfaction in Switzerland before and after SwissDRG-Implementation in 2012 in 2012: an observational study in two tertiary university centers.

On 1 January 2012 Swiss Diagnosis Related Groups (DRG), a new uniform payment system for in-patients was introduced in Switzerland with the intention to replace a "cost-based" with a "case-based" reimbursement system to increase efficiency. With the introduction of the new payment system we aim to answer questions raised regarding length of stay as well as patients' outcome and satisfaction. This is a prospective, two-centre observational cohort study with data from University Hospital Basel and the Cantonal Hospital Aarau, Switzerland, from January to June 2011 and 2012, respectively. Consecutive in-patients with the main diagnosis of either community-acquired pneumonia, exacerbation of COPD, acute heart failure or hip fracture were included. A questionnaire survey was sent out after discharge investigating changes before and after SwissDRG implementation. Our primary endpoint was LOS. Of 1,983 eligible patients 841 returned the questionnaire and were included into the analysis (429 in 2011, 412 in 2012). The median age was 76.7 years (50.8% male). Patients in the two years were well balanced in regard to main diagnoses and co-morbidities. Mean LOS in the overall patient population was 10.0 days and comparable between the 2011 cohort and the 2012 cohort (9.7 vs 10.3; p = 0.43). Overall satisfaction with care changed only slightly after introduction of SwissDRG and remained high (89.0% vs 87.8%; p = 0.429). Investigating the influence of the implementation of SwissDRG in 2012 regarding LOS patients' outcome and satisfaction, we found no significant changes. However, we observed some noteworthy trends, which should be monitored closely.

Impact of Matrix-Assisted Laser Desorption Ionization Time-of-Flight Mass Spectrometry on the Clinical Management of Patients With Gram-negative Bacteremia: A Prospective Observational Study.

Background. Early identification of pathogens from blood cultures using matrix-assisted laser desorption ionization time-of-flight (MALDI-TOF) mass spectrometry may optimize the choice of empirical antibiotic therapy in the setting of bloodstream infections. We aimed to assess the impact of this new technology on the use of antibiotic treatment in patients with gram-negative bacteremia. Methods. We conducted a prospective observational study from January to December 2010 to evaluate the sequential and separate impacts of Gram stain reporting and MALDI-TOF bacterial identification performed on blood culture pellets in patients with gram-negative bacteremia. The primary outcome was the impact of MALDI-TOF on empirical antibiotic choice. Results. Among 202 episodes of gram-negative bacteremia, Gram stain reporting had an impact in 42 cases (20.8%). MALDI-TOF identification led to a modification of empirical therapy in 71 of all 202 cases (35.1%), and in 16 of 27 cases (59.3%) of monomicrobial bacteremia caused by AmpC-producing Enterobacteriaceae. The most frequently observed impact was an early appropriate broadening of the antibiotic spectrum in 31 of 71 cases (43.7%). In total, 143 of 165 episodes (86.7%) of monomicrobial bacteremia were correctly identified at genus level by MALDI-TOF. Conclusions. In a low prevalence area for extended spectrum betalactamases (ESBL) and multiresistant gram-negative bacteria, MALDI-TOF performed on blood culture pellets had an impact on the clinical management of 35.1% of all gram-negative bacteremia cases, demonstrating a greater impact than Gram stain reporting. Thus, MALDI-TOF could become a vital second step beside Gram stain in guiding the empirical treatment of patients with bloodstream infection.

Community Policing in Switzerland's Major Urban Areas: An Observational Study of the Implementation and Impact Using Geospatial Data Mining

La présente étude est à la fois une évaluation du processus de la mise en oeuvre et des impacts de la police de proximité dans les cinq plus grandes zones urbaines de Suisse - Bâle, Berne, Genève, Lausanne et Zurich. La police de proximité (community policing) est à la fois une philosophie et une stratégie organisationnelle qui favorise un partenariat renouvelé entre la police et les communautés locales dans le but de résoudre les problèmes relatifs à la sécurité et à l'ordre public. L'évaluation de processus a analysé des données relatives aux réformes internes de la police qui ont été obtenues par l'intermédiaire d'entretiens semi-structurés avec des administrateurs clés des cinq départements de police, ainsi que dans des documents écrits de la police et d'autres sources publiques. L'évaluation des impacts, quant à elle, s'est basée sur des variables contextuelles telles que des statistiques policières et des données de recensement, ainsi que sur des indicateurs d'impacts construit à partir des données du Swiss Crime Survey (SCS) relatives au sentiment d'insécurité, à la perception du désordre public et à la satisfaction de la population à l'égard de la police. Le SCS est un sondage régulier qui a permis d'interroger des habitants des cinq grandes zones urbaines à plusieurs reprises depuis le milieu des années 1980. L'évaluation de processus a abouti à un « Calendrier des activités » visant à créer des données de panel permettant de mesurer les progrès réalisés dans la mise en oeuvre de la police de proximité à l'aide d'une grille d'évaluation à six dimensions à des intervalles de cinq ans entre 1990 et 2010. L'évaluation des impacts, effectuée ex post facto, a utilisé un concept de recherche non-expérimental (observational design) dans le but d'analyser les impacts de différents modèles de police de proximité dans des zones comparables à travers les cinq villes étudiées. Les quartiers urbains, délimités par zone de code postal, ont ainsi été regroupés par l'intermédiaire d'une typologie réalisée à l'aide d'algorithmes d'apprentissage automatique (machine learning). Des algorithmes supervisés et non supervisés ont été utilisés sur les données à haute dimensionnalité relatives à la criminalité, à la structure socio-économique et démographique et au cadre bâti dans le but de regrouper les quartiers urbains les plus similaires dans des clusters. D'abord, les cartes auto-organisatrices (self-organizing maps) ont été utilisées dans le but de réduire la variance intra-cluster des variables contextuelles et de maximiser simultanément la variance inter-cluster des réponses au sondage. Ensuite, l'algorithme des forêts d'arbres décisionnels (random forests) a permis à la fois d'évaluer la pertinence de la typologie de quartier élaborée et de sélectionner les variables contextuelles clés afin de construire un modèle parcimonieux faisant un minimum d'erreurs de classification. Enfin, pour l'analyse des impacts, la méthode des appariements des coefficients de propension (propensity score matching) a été utilisée pour équilibrer les échantillons prétest-posttest en termes d'âge, de sexe et de niveau d'éducation des répondants au sein de chaque type de quartier ainsi identifié dans chacune des villes, avant d'effectuer un test statistique de la différence observée dans les indicateurs d'impacts. De plus, tous les résultats statistiquement significatifs ont été soumis à une analyse de sensibilité (sensitivity analysis) afin d'évaluer leur robustesse face à un biais potentiel dû à des covariables non observées. L'étude relève qu'au cours des quinze dernières années, les cinq services de police ont entamé des réformes majeures de leur organisation ainsi que de leurs stratégies opérationnelles et qu'ils ont noué des partenariats stratégiques afin de mettre en oeuvre la police de proximité. La typologie de quartier développée a abouti à une réduction de la variance intra-cluster des variables contextuelles et permet d'expliquer une partie significative de la variance inter-cluster des indicateurs d'impacts avant la mise en oeuvre du traitement. Ceci semble suggérer que les méthodes de géocomputation aident à équilibrer les covariables observées et donc à réduire les menaces relatives à la validité interne d'un concept de recherche non-expérimental. Enfin, l'analyse des impacts a révélé que le sentiment d'insécurité a diminué de manière significative pendant la période 2000-2005 dans les quartiers se trouvant à l'intérieur et autour des centres-villes de Berne et de Zurich. Ces améliorations sont assez robustes face à des biais dus à des covariables inobservées et covarient dans le temps et l'espace avec la mise en oeuvre de la police de proximité. L'hypothèse alternative envisageant que les diminutions observées dans le sentiment d'insécurité soient, partiellement, un résultat des interventions policières de proximité semble donc être aussi plausible que l'hypothèse nulle considérant l'absence absolue d'effet. Ceci, même si le concept de recherche non-expérimental mis en oeuvre ne peut pas complètement exclure la sélection et la régression à la moyenne comme explications alternatives. The current research project is both a process and impact evaluation of community policing in Switzerland's five major urban areas - Basel, Bern, Geneva, Lausanne, and Zurich. Community policing is both a philosophy and an organizational strategy that promotes a renewed partnership between the police and the community to solve problems of crime and disorder. The process evaluation data on police internal reforms were obtained through semi-structured interviews with key administrators from the five police departments as well as from police internal documents and additional public sources. The impact evaluation uses official crime records and census statistics as contextual variables as well as Swiss Crime Survey (SCS) data on fear of crime, perceptions of disorder, and public attitudes towards the police as outcome measures. The SCS is a standing survey instrument that has polled residents of the five urban areas repeatedly since the mid-1980s. The process evaluation produced a "Calendar of Action" to create panel data to measure community policing implementation progress over six evaluative dimensions in intervals of five years between 1990 and 2010. The impact evaluation, carried out ex post facto, uses an observational design that analyzes the impact of the different community policing models between matched comparison areas across the five cities. Using ZIP code districts as proxies for urban neighborhoods, geospatial data mining algorithms serve to develop a neighborhood typology in order to match the comparison areas. To this end, both unsupervised and supervised algorithms are used to analyze high-dimensional data on crime, the socio-economic and demographic structure, and the built environment in order to classify urban neighborhoods into clusters of similar type. In a first step, self-organizing maps serve as tools to develop a clustering algorithm that reduces the within-cluster variance in the contextual variables and simultaneously maximizes the between-cluster variance in survey responses. The random forests algorithm then serves to assess the appropriateness of the resulting neighborhood typology and to select the key contextual variables in order to build a parsimonious model that makes a minimum of classification errors. Finally, for the impact analysis, propensity score matching methods are used to match the survey respondents of the pretest and posttest samples on age, gender, and their level of education for each neighborhood type identified within each city, before conducting a statistical test of the observed difference in the outcome measures. Moreover, all significant results were subjected to a sensitivity analysis to assess the robustness of these findings in the face of potential bias due to some unobserved covariates. The study finds that over the last fifteen years, all five police departments have undertaken major reforms of their internal organization and operating strategies and forged strategic partnerships in order to implement community policing. The resulting neighborhood typology reduced the within-cluster variance of the contextual variables and accounted for a significant share of the between-cluster variance in the outcome measures prior to treatment, suggesting that geocomputational methods help to balance the observed covariates and hence to reduce threats to the internal validity of an observational design. Finally, the impact analysis revealed that fear of crime dropped significantly over the 2000-2005 period in the neighborhoods in and around the urban centers of Bern and Zurich. These improvements are fairly robust in the face of bias due to some unobserved covariate and covary temporally and spatially with the implementation of community policing. The alternative hypothesis that the observed reductions in fear of crime were at least in part a result of community policing interventions thus appears at least as plausible as the null hypothesis of absolutely no effect, even if the observational design cannot completely rule out selection and regression to the mean as alternative explanations.

Pro-adrenomedullin usefulness in the management of children with community-acquired pneumonia, a preliminary prospective observational study

BackgroundIn adult population with community acquired pneumonia high levels of pro-adrenomedullin (pro-ADM) have been shown to be predictors of worse prognosis. The role of this biomarker in pediatric patients had not been analyzed to date. The objective of this study is to know the levels of pro-ADM in children with community acquired pneumonia (CAP) and analyze the relation between these levels and the patients¿ prognosis.FindingsProspective observational study including patients attended in the emergency service (January to October 2009) admitted to hospital with CAP and no complications at admission. The values for pro-ADM were analyzed in relation to: need for oxygen therapy, duration of oxygen therapy, fever and antibiotic therapy, complications, admission to the intensive care unit, and length of hospital stay. Fifty patients were included. Ten presented complications (7 pleural effusion). The median level of pro-ADM was 1.0065¿nmol/L (range 0.3715 to 7.2840¿nmol/L). The patients presenting complications had higher levels of pro-ADM (2.3190 vs. 1.1758¿nmol/L, p¿=¿0.013). Specifically, the presence of pleural effusion was associated with higher levels of pro-ADM (2.9440 vs. 1.1373¿nmol/L, p¿<¿0.001).ConclusionsIn our sample of patients admitted to hospital with CAP, pro-ADM levels are related to the development of complications during hospitalization.

Routine delivery of artemisinin-based combination treatment at fixed health facilities reduces malaria prevalence in Tanzania: an observational study.

BACKGROUND: Artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) has been promoted as a means to reduce malaria transmission due to their ability to kill both asexual blood stages of malaria parasites, which sustain infections over long periods and the immature derived sexual stages responsible for infecting mosquitoes and onward transmission. Early studies reported a temporal association between ACT introduction and reduced malaria transmission in a number of ecological settings. However, these reports have come from areas with low to moderate malaria transmission, been confounded by the presence of other interventions or environmental changes that may have reduced malaria transmission, and have not included a comparison group without ACT. This report presents results from the first large-scale observational study to assess the impact of case management with ACT on population-level measures of malaria endemicity in an area with intense transmission where the benefits of effective infection clearance might be compromised by frequent and repeated re-infection. METHODS: A pre-post observational study with a non-randomized comparison group was conducted at two sites in Tanzania. Both sites used sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) monotherapy as a first-line anti-malarial from mid-2001 through 2002. In 2003, the ACT, artesunate (AS) co-administered with SP (AS + SP), was introduced in all fixed health facilities in the intervention site, including both public and registered non-governmental facilities. Population-level prevalence of Plasmodium falciparum asexual parasitaemia and gametocytaemia were assessed using light microscopy from samples collected during representative household surveys in 2001, 2002, 2004, 2005 and 2006. FINDINGS: Among 37,309 observations included in the analysis, annual asexual parasitaemia prevalence in persons of all ages ranged from 11% to 28% and gametocytaemia prevalence ranged from <1% to 2% between the two sites and across the five survey years. A multivariable logistic regression model was fitted to adjust for age, socioeconomic status, bed net use and rainfall. In the presence of consistently high coverage and efficacy of SP monotherapy and AS + SP in the comparison and intervention areas, the introduction of ACT in the intervention site was associated with a modest reduction in the adjusted asexual parasitaemia prevalence of 5 percentage-points or 23% (p < 0.0001) relative to the comparison site. Gametocytaemia prevalence did not differ significantly (p = 0.30). INTERPRETATION: The introduction of ACT at fixed health facilities only modestly reduced asexual parasitaemia prevalence. ACT is effective for treatment of uncomplicated malaria and should have substantial public health impact on morbidity and mortality, but is unlikely to reduce malaria transmission substantially in much of sub-Saharan Africa where individuals are rapidly re-infected.

Loss to follow-up in an international, multicentre observational study.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this work was to assess loss to follow-up (LTFU) in EuroSIDA, an international multicentre observational cohort study. METHODS: LTFU was defined as no follow-up visit, CD4 cell count measurement or viral load measurement after 1 January 2006. Poisson regression was used to describe factors related to LTFU. RESULTS: The incidence of LTFU in 12 304 patients was 3.72 per 100 person-years of follow-up [95% confidence interval (CI) 3.58-3.86; 2712 LTFU] and varied among countries from 0.67 to 13.35. After adjustment, older patients, those with higher CD4 cell counts, and those who had started combination antiretroviral therapy all had lower incidences of LTFU, while injecting drug users had a higher incidence of LTFU. Compared with patients from Southern Europe and Argentina, patients from Eastern Europe had over a twofold increased incidence of LTFU after adjustment (incidence rate ratio 2.16; 95% CI 1.84-2.53; P<0.0001). A total of 2743 patients had a period of >1 year with no CD4 cell count or viral load measured during the year; 743 (27.1%) subsequently returned to follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: Some patients thought to be LTFU may have died, and efforts should be made to ascertain vital status wherever possible. A significant proportion of patients who have a year with no follow-up visit, CD4 cell count measurement or viral load measurement subsequently return to follow-up.

Refractory status epilepticus: A prospective observational study.

Summary Purpose: Status epilepticus (SE) that is resistant to two antiepileptic compounds is defined as refractory status epilepticus (RSE). In the few available retrospective studies, estimated RSE frequency is between 31% and 43% of patients presenting an SE episode; almost all seem to require a coma induction for treatment. We prospectively assessed RSE frequency, clinical predictors, and outcome in a tertiary clinical setting. Methods: Over 2 years we collected 128 consecutives SE episodes (118 patients) in adults. Clinical data and their relationship to outcome (mortality and return to baseline clinical conditions) were analyzed. Results: Twenty-nine of 128 SE episodes (22.6%) were refractory to first- and second-line antiepileptic treatments. Severity of consciousness impairment and de novo episodes were independent predictors of RSE. RSE showed a worse outcome than non-RSE (39% vs. 11% for mortality; 21% vs. 63% for return to baseline clinical conditions). Only 12 patients with RSE (41%) required coma induction for treatment. Discussion: This prospective study identifies clinical factors predicting the onset of SE refractoriness. RSE appears to be less frequent than previously reported in retrospective studies; furthermore, most RSE episodes were treated outside the intensive care unit (ICU). Nonetheless, we confirm that RSE is characterized by high mortality and morbidity.

Behavioral changes in brain-injured critical care adults with different levels of consciousness during nociceptive stimulation: an observational study.

PURPOSE: The primary objective of this study was to describe the frequency of behaviors observed during rest, a non-nociceptive procedure, and a nociceptive procedure in brain-injured intensive care unit (ICU) patients with different levels of consciousness (LOC). Second, it examined the inter-rater reliability and discriminant and concurrent validity of the behavioral checklist used. METHODS: The non-nociceptive procedure involved calling the patient and shaking his/her shoulder. The nociceptive procedure involved turning the patient. The frequency of behaviors was recorded using a behavioral checklist. RESULTS: Patients with absence of movement, or stereotyped flexion or extension responses to a nociceptive stimulus displayed more behaviors during turning (median 5.5, range 0-14) than patients with localized responses (median 4, range 0-10) or able to self-report their pain (median 4, range 0-10). Face flushing, clenched teeth, clenched fist, and tremor were more frequent in patients with absence of movement, or stereotyped responses to a nociceptive stimulus. The reliability of the checklist was supported by a high intra-class correlation coefficient (0.77-0.92), and the internal consistency was acceptable in all three groups (KR 20, 0.71-0.85). Discriminant validity was supported as significantly more behaviors were observed during nociceptive stimulation than at rest. Concurrent validity was confirmed as checklist scores were correlated to the patients' self-reports of pain (r s = 0.53; 95 % CI 0.21-0.75). CONCLUSION: Brain-injured patients reacted significantly more during a nociceptive stimulus and the number of observed behaviors was higher in patients with a stereotyped response.

Gait disturbances as specific predictive markers of the first fall onset in elderly people: a two-year prospective observational study

Falls are common in the elderly, and potentially result in injury and disability. Thus, preventing falls as soon as possible in older adults is a public health priority, yet there is no specific marker that is predictive of the first fall onset. We hypothesized that gait features should be the most relevant variables for predicting the first fall. Clinical baseline characteristics (e.g., gender, cognitive function) were assessed in 259 home-dwelling people aged 66 to 75 that had never fallen. Likewise, global kinetic behavior of gait was recorded from 22 variables in 1036 walking tests with an accelerometric gait analysis system. Afterward, monthly telephone monitoring reported the date of the first fall over 24 months. A principal components analysis was used to assess the relationship between gait variables and fall status in four groups: non-fallers, fallers from 0 to 6 months, fallers from 6 to 12 months and fallers from 12 to 24 months. The association of significant principal components (PC) with an increased risk of first fall was then evaluated using the area under the Receiver Operator Characteristic Curve (ROC). No effect of clinical confounding variables was shown as a function of groups. An eigenvalue decomposition of the correlation matrix identified a large statistical PC1 (termed "Global kinetics of gait pattern"), which accounted for 36.7% of total variance. Principal component loadings also revealed a PC2 (12.6% of total variance), related to the "Global gait regularity." Subsequent ANOVAs showed that only PC1 discriminated the fall status during the first 6 months, while PC2 discriminated the first fall onset between 6 and 12 months. After one year, any PC was associated with falls. These results were bolstered by the ROC analyses, showing good predictive models of the first fall during the first six months or from 6 to 12 months. Overall, these findings suggest that the performance of a standardized walking test at least once a year is essential for fall prevention.