Iteratively specified tree-based regression : theory and trip generation example

Focuses on a study which introduced an iterative modeling method that combines properties of ordinary least squares (OLS) with hierarchical tree-based regression (HTBR) in transportation engineering. Information on OLS and HTBR; Comparison and contrasts of OLS and HTBR; Conclusions.

Use of virtual index for measuring efficiency of innovation systems : a cross-country study

In this study we propose a virtual index for measuring the relative innovativeness of countries. Using a multistage virtual benchmarking process, the best and rational benchmark is extracted for inefficient ISs. Furthermore, Tobit and Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression models are used to investigate the likelihood of changes in inefficiencies by investigating country-specific factors. The empirical results relating to the virtual benchmarking process suggest that the OLS regression model would better explain changes in the performance of innovation- inefficient countries.

Catalytic conversion of gases via cation-exchangable alumino-silicate materials

A process for catalytic conversion and/or adsorption of gases inclusive of NOx, SOx, CO2, CO, dioxins and PAHs and combinations thereof wherein said gases may contain particulates which include contacting one or more of such gases with an alumino-silicate material having: a primarily tetrahedrally co-ordinated aluminium as established by the fact that the 27 A1 Magic Angle Spinning (MAS) provides a single peak at 55-58 ppm (FWHM ~23 ppm) relative to Al(H 2 0) 6 3 and (ii) a cation exchange capacity of at least 1 meq 100 in aqueous solution at room temperature.

Immigrant wage differentials and the role of self-employment in Australia

Immigration has played an important role in the historical development of Australia. Thus, it is no surprise that a large body of empirical work has developed, which focuses upon how migrants fare in the land of opportunity. Much of the literature is comparatively recent, i.e. the last ten years or so, encouraged by the advent of public availability of Australian crosssection micro data. Several different aspects of migrant welfare have been addressed, with major emphasis being placed upon earnings and unemployment experience. For recent examples see Haig (1980), Stromback (1984), Chiswick and Miller (1985), Tran-Nam and Nevile (1988) and Beggs and Chapman (1988). The present paper contributes to the literature by providing additional empirical evidence on the native/migrant earnings differential. The data utilised are from the rather neglected Australian Bureau of Statistics, ABS Special Supplementary Survey No.4. 1982, otherwise known as the Family Survey. The paper also examines the importance of distinguishing between the wage and salary sector and the self-employment sector when discussing native/migrant differentials. Separate earnings equations for the two labour market groups are estimated and the native/migrant earnings differential is broken down by employment status. This is a novel application in the Australian context and provides some insight into the earnings of the selfemployed, a group that despite its size (around 20 per cent of the labour force) is frequently ignored by economic research. Most previous empirical research fails to examine the effect of employment status on earnings. Stromback (1984) includes a dummy variable representing self-employment status in an earnings equation estimated over a pooled sample of paid and self-employed workers. The variable is found to be highly significant, which leads Stromback to question the efficacy of including the self-employed in the estimation sample. The suggestion is that part of self-employed earnings represent a return to non-human capital investment, i.e. investments in machinery, buildings etc, the structural determinants of earnings differ significantly from those for paid employees. Tran-Nam and Nevile (1988) deal with differences between paid employees and the selfemployed by deleting the latter from their sample. However, deleting the self-employed from the estimation sample may lead to bias in the OLS estimation method (see Heckman 1979). The desirable properties of OLS are dependent upon estimation on a random sample. Thus, the 'Ran-Nam and Nevile results are likely to suffer from bias unless individuals are randomly allocated between self-employment and paid employment. The current analysis extends Tran-Nam and Nevile (1988) by explicitly treating the choice of paid employment versus self-employment as being endogenously determined. This allows an explicit test for the appropriateness of deleting self-employed workers from the sample. Earnings equations that are corrected for sample selection are estimated for both natives and migrants in the paid employee sector. The Heckman (1979) two-step estimator is employed. The paper is divided into five major sections. The next section presents the econometric model incorporating the specification of the earnings generating process together with an explicit model determining an individual's employment status. In Section 111 the data are described. Section IV draws together the main econometric results of the paper. First, the probit estimates of the labour market status equation are documented. This is followed by presentation and discussion of the Heckman two-stage estimates of the earnings specification for both native and migrant Australians. Separate earnings equations are estimated for paid employees and the self-employed. Section V documents estimates of the nativelmigrant earnings differential for both categories of employees. To aid comparison with earlier work, the Oaxaca decomposition of the earnings differential for paid-employees is carried out for both the simple OLS regression results as well as the parameter estimates corrected for sample selection effects. These differentials are interpreted and compared with previous Australian findings. A short section concludes the paper.

Transcriptional analysis of apple fruit proanthocyanidin biosynthesis

Proanthocyanidins (PAs) are products of the flavonoid pathway, which also leads to the production of anthocyanins and flavonols. Many flavonoids have antioxidant properties and may have beneficial effects for human health. PAs are found in the seeds and fruits of many plants. In apple fruit (Malus × domestica Borkh.), the flavonoid biosynthetic pathway is most active in the skin, with the flavan-3-ols, catechin, and epicatechin acting as the initiating units for the synthesis of PA polymers. This study examined the genes involved in the production of PAs in three apple cultivars: two heritage apple cultivars, Hetlina and Devonshire Quarrenden, and a commercial cultivar, Royal Gala. HPLC analysis shows that tree-ripe fruit from Hetlina and Devonshire Quarrenden had a higher phenolic content than Royal Gala. Epicatechin and catechin biosynthesis is under the control of the biosynthetic enzymes anthocyanidin reductase (ANR) and leucoanthocyanidin reductase (LAR1), respectively. Counter-intuitively, real-time quantitative PCR analysis showed that the expression levels of Royal Gala LAR1 and ANR were significantly higher than those of both Devonshire Quarrenden and Hetlina. This suggests that a compensatory feedback mechanism may be active, whereby low concentrations of PAs may induce higher expression of gene transcripts. Further investigation is required into the regulation of these key enzymes in apple.

Audit fees and asset securitization risks

The thesis investigates “where were the auditors in asset securitizations”, a criticism of the audit profession before and after the onset of the global financial crisis (GFC). Asset securitizations increase audit complexity and audit risks, which are expected to increase audit fees. Using US bank holding company data from 2003 to 2009, this study examines the association between asset securitization risks and audit fees, and its changes during the global financial crisis. The main test is based on an ordinary least squares (OLS) model, which is adapted from the Fields et al. (2004) bank audit fee model. I employ a principal components analysis to address high correlations among asset securitization risks. Individual securitization risks are also separately tested. A suite of sensitivity tests indicate the results are robust. These include model alterations, sample variations, further controls in the tests, and correcting for the securitizer self-selection problem. A partial least squares (PLS) path modelling methodology is introduced as a separate test, which allows for high intercorrelations, self-selection correction, and sequential order hypotheses in one simultaneous model. The PLS results are consistent with the main results. The study finds significant and positive associations between securitization risks and audit fees. After the commencement of the global financial crisis in 2007, there was an increased focus on the role of audits on asset securitization risks resulting from bank failures; therefore I expect that auditors would become more sensitive to bank asset securitization risks after the commencement of the crisis. I find that auditors appear to focus on different aspects of asset securitization risks during the crisis and that auditors appear to charge a GFC premium for banks. Overall, the results support the view that auditors consider asset securitization risks and market changes, and adjust their audit effort and risk considerations accordingly.

Method for planning and executing obstacle-free paths for rotating excavation machinery

This invention concerns the control of rotating excavation machinery, for instance to avoid collisions with obstacles. In a first aspect the invention is a control system for autonomous path planning in excavation machinery, comprising: A map generation subsystem to receive data from an array of disparate and complementary sensors to generate a 3-Dimensional digital terrain and obstacle map referenced to a coordinate frame related to the machine's geometry, during normal operation of the machine. An obstacle detection subsystem to find and identify obstacles in the digital terrain and obstacle map, and then to refine the map by identifying exclusion zones that are within reach of the machine during operation. A collision detection subsystem that uses knowledge of the machine's position and movements, as well as the digital terrain and obstacle map, to identify and predict possible collisions with itself or other obstacles, and then uses a forward motion planner to predict collisions in a planned path. And, a path planning subsystem that uses information from the other subsystems to vary planned paths to avoid obstacles and collisions. In other aspects the invention is excavation machinery including the control system; a method for control of excavation machinery; and firmware and software versions of the control system.

Remote monitoring of underwater objects

A system for monitoring conditions in a remote environment. The system comprising a data transmission network including a plurality of data sensing nodes. Each data sensing node includes an environment sensing means for periodically sensing the environment around node, a transmission means for periodic wireless transmission of sensed data to adjacent data sensing nodes. These adjacent data sensing nodes combining their sensed data with the received data from other data sensing nodes and on transmit the combined data.

Active Adaptive Gyrostabiliser Control System

A gyrostabiliser control system and method for stabilising marine vessel motion based on precession information only. The control system employs an Automatic Gain Control (AGC) precession controller (60). This system operates with a gain factor that is always being gradually minimized so as to let the gyro flywheel (12) develop as much precession as possible - the higher the precession, the higher the roll stabilising moment. This continuous gain change provides adaptation to changes in sea state and sailing conditions. The system effectively predicts the likelihood of maximum precession being reached. Should this event be detected, then the gain is rapidly increased so as to provide a breaking precession torque. Once the event has passed, the system again attempts to gradually decrease the gain.

Fault tolerant vessel stabiliser control system

A vessel stabilizer control system includes a sensor fault detection means which senses the availability of sensing signals from a gyrostabilizer precession motion sensor and a vessel roll motion sensor. The control system controls the action of a gyro-actuator which is mechanically coupled to a gyrostabilizer. The benefit of employing fault sensing of the sensors providing the process control variables is that the sensed number of available process control variables (or sensors) can be used to activate a tiered system of control modes. Each tiered control mode is designed to utilize the available process control variables to ensure safe and effective operation of the gyrostabilizer that is tolerant of sensor faults and loss of power supply. A control mode selector is provided for selecting the appropriate control mode based on the number of available process control variables.

Doing marriage and parenthood: The division of household labour across two life course events

The current study is a longitudinal investigation into changes in the division of household labour across transitions to marriage and parenthood in the UK. Previous research has noted a more traditional division of household labour, with women performing the majority of housework, amongst spouses and couples with children. However, the bulk of this work has been cross-sectional in nature. The few longitudinal studies that have been carried out have been rather ambiguous about the effect of marriage and parenthood on the division of housework. Theoretically, this study draws on gender construction theory. The key premise of this theory is that gender is something that is performed and created in interaction, and, as a result, something fluid and flexible rather than fixed and stable. The idea that couples ‘do gender’ through housework has been a major theoretical breakthrough. Gender-neutral explanations of the division of household labour, positing rational acting individuals, have failed to explicate why women continue to perform an unequal share of housework, regardless of socio-economic status. Contrastingly, gender construction theory situates gender as the key process in dividing household labour. By performing and avoiding certain housework chores, couples fulfill social norms of what it means to be a man and a woman although, given the emphasis on human agency in producing and contesting gender, couples are able to negotiate alternative gender roles which, in turn, feed back into the structure of social norms in an ever-changing societal landscape. This study adds extra depth to the doing gender approach by testing whether or not couples negotiate specific conjugal and parent roles in terms of the division of household labour. Both transitions hypothesise a more traditional division of household labour. Data comes from the British Household Panel Survey, a large, nationally representative quantitative survey that has been carried out annually since 1991. Here, data tracks the same 776 couples at two separate time points – 1996 and 2005. OLS regression is used to test whether or not transitions to marriage and parenthood have a significant impact on the division of household labour whilst controlling for host of relevant socio-economic factors. Results indicate that marriage has no significant effect on how couples partition housework. Those couples making the transition from cohabitation to marriage do not show significant changes in housework arrangements from those couples who remain cohabiting in both waves. On the other hand, becoming parents does lead to a more traditional division of household labour whilst controlling for socio-economic factors which accompany the move to parenthood. There is then some evidence that couples use the site of household labour to ‘do parenthood’ and generate identities which both use and inform socially prescribed notions of what it means to be a mother and a father. Support for socio-economic explanations of the division of household labour was mixed although it remains clear that they, alone, cannot explain how households divide housework.

Modeling and Forecasting Implied Volatility: Implications for Trading, Pricing, and Risk Management

Modeling and forecasting of implied volatility (IV) is important to both practitioners and academics, especially in trading, pricing, hedging, and risk management activities, all of which require an accurate volatility. However, it has become challenging since the 1987 stock market crash, as implied volatilities (IVs) recovered from stock index options present two patterns: volatility smirk(skew) and volatility term-structure, if the two are examined at the same time, presents a rich implied volatility surface (IVS). This implies that the assumptions behind the Black-Scholes (1973) model do not hold empirically, as asset prices are mostly influenced by many underlying risk factors. This thesis, consists of four essays, is modeling and forecasting implied volatility in the presence of options markets’ empirical regularities. The first essay is modeling the dynamics IVS, it extends the Dumas, Fleming and Whaley (DFW) (1998) framework; for instance, using moneyness in the implied forward price and OTM put-call options on the FTSE100 index, a nonlinear optimization is used to estimate different models and thereby produce rich, smooth IVSs. Here, the constant-volatility model fails to explain the variations in the rich IVS. Next, it is found that three factors can explain about 69-88% of the variance in the IVS. Of this, on average, 56% is explained by the level factor, 15% by the term-structure factor, and the additional 7% by the jump-fear factor. The second essay proposes a quantile regression model for modeling contemporaneous asymmetric return-volatility relationship, which is the generalization of Hibbert et al. (2008) model. The results show strong negative asymmetric return-volatility relationship at various quantiles of IV distributions, it is monotonically increasing when moving from the median quantile to the uppermost quantile (i.e., 95%); therefore, OLS underestimates this relationship at upper quantiles. Additionally, the asymmetric relationship is more pronounced with the smirk (skew) adjusted volatility index measure in comparison to the old volatility index measure. Nonetheless, the volatility indices are ranked in terms of asymmetric volatility as follows: VIX, VSTOXX, VDAX, and VXN. The third essay examines the information content of the new-VDAX volatility index to forecast daily Value-at-Risk (VaR) estimates and compares its VaR forecasts with the forecasts of the Filtered Historical Simulation and RiskMetrics. All daily VaR models are then backtested from 1992-2009 using unconditional, independence, conditional coverage, and quadratic-score tests. It is found that the VDAX subsumes almost all information required for the volatility of daily VaR forecasts for a portfolio of the DAX30 index; implied-VaR models outperform all other VaR models. The fourth essay models the risk factors driving the swaption IVs. It is found that three factors can explain 94-97% of the variation in each of the EUR, USD, and GBP swaption IVs. There are significant linkages across factors, and bi-directional causality is at work between the factors implied by EUR and USD swaption IVs. Furthermore, the factors implied by EUR and USD IVs respond to each others’ shocks; however, surprisingly, GBP does not affect them. Second, the string market model calibration results show it can efficiently reproduce (or forecast) the volatility surface for each of the swaptions markets.

Doing marriage and parenthood: The division of household labour across two life course events

The current study is a longitudinal investigation into changes in the division of household labour across transitions to marriage and parenthood in the UK. Previous research has noted a more traditional division of household labour, with women performing the majority of housework, amongst spouses and couples with children. However, the bulk of this work has been cross-sectional in nature. The few longitudinal studies that have been carried out have been rather ambiguous about the effect of marriage and parenthood on the division of housework. Theoretically, this study draws on gender construction theory. The key premise of this theory is that gender is something that is performed and created in interaction, and, as a result, something fluid and flexible rather than fixed and stable. The idea that couples 'do gender' through housework has been a major theoretical breakthrough. Gender-neutral explanations of the division of household labour, positing rational acting individuals, have failed to explicate why women continue to perform an unequal share of housework, regardless of socioeconomic status. Contrastingly, gender construction theory situates gender as the key process in dividing household labour. By performing and avoiding certain housework chores, couples fulfill social norms of what it means to be a man and a woman although, given the emphasis on human agency in producing and contesting gender, couples are able to negotiate alternative gender roles which, in turn, feed back into the structure of social norms in an ever-changing societal landscape. This study adds extra depth to the doing gender approach by testing whether or not couples negotiate specific conjugal and parent roles in terms of the division of household labour. Both transitions hypothesise a more traditional division of household labour. Data comes from the British Household Panel Survey, a large, nationally representative quantitative survey that has been carried out annually since 1991. Here, data tracks the same 776 couples at two separate time points - 1996 and 2005. OLS regression is used to test whether or not transitions to marriage and parenthood have a significant impact on the division of household labour whilst controlling for host of relevant socio-economic factors. Results indicate that marriage has no significant effect on how couples partition housework. Those couples making the transition from cohabitation to marriage do not show significant changes in housework arrangements from those couples who remain cohabiting in both waves. On the other hand, becoming parents does lead to a more traditional division of household labour whilst controlling for socio-economic factors which accompany the move to parenthood. There is then some evidence that couples use the site of household labour to 'do parenthood' and generate identities which both use and inform socially prescribed notions of what it means to be a mother and a father. Support for socio-economic explanations of the division of household labour was mixed although it remains clear that they, alone, cannot explain how households divide housework.

Synthesis of Reduced Metabolites of Isoflavonoids, and their Enantiomeric Forms

Isoflavonoids are naturally occurring plant derived biochemicals, which act as phytoalexins. Isoflavonoids are of interest due to their estrogenic and other potential physiological properties, particularly in mammals that typically consume isoflavonoid rich nutrients such as soy and red clover. The literature review of this thesis mainly focuses on the reduced metabolites of hydroxy and/or methoxy substituted isoflavones with four groups: isoflavan-4-ols, isoflav-3-enes, isoflavans and α-methyldeoxybenzoins (1,2-diarylpropan-1-ones), which are all reduced metabolites of food derived isoflavones in mammals. Related isoflavan-4-ones are briefly discussed. Results of an extensive survey of the literature concerning the synthesis of polyhydroxy- or methoxysubstituted isoflavonoids and especially asymmetric approaches are discussed. The experimental section describes new synthetic methods to prepare polyphenolic reduced isoflavonoid structures such as isoflav-3-enes, isoflavan-4-ones, cis- and trans-isoflavan-4-ols, 1,2-diarylpropan-1-ones and isoflavans by various hydride reagents and hydrogenations. The specific reactivity differences of various hydride reagents toward isoflavonoids are discussed. The first enantioselective synthesis of natural (S)-(-)-equol and the opposite enantiomer (R)-(+)-equol is also described by the asymmetric iridium PHOX catalysed hydrogenation of isoflav-3-enes. Both of these equol enantiomers are found to possess biological activity in mammals due to estrogen receptor binding activity. The natural enantiomer prefers estrogen receptor β and the R-enantiomer prefers the estrogen receptor α. Also the precursor, isoflav-3-ene, is found to possess positive biological effects on mammals. In connection with the synthetic work, the (S)-(-)-equol was discovered from serum of ewes after isoflavone rich red clover feeding. The chiral HPLC method was developed to identify natural equol enantiomer for the first time in this species. The first synthesis of natural isoflavonoid (R)-(-)-angolensin and its enantiomer (S)-(+)-angolensin is desribed by the use of recyclable chiral auxiliaries (chiral pseudoephedrines). The method offers a general approach also to other natural polyphenolic 1,2-diarylpropan-1-ones and to further study isoflavonoid metabolism in human and other mammals. The absolute configurations of these new chiral isoflavonoid metabolites were determined by X-ray spectroscopy. Also thorough NMR and MS analysis of synthesised structures are presented.

An Enantiospecific Approach to Irregular Ligusticum grayi Sesquiterpenes: Synthesis of cis-Preisothapsa-2,8(12)-diene

Enantiospecific syntheses of 1-epi- (or cis-)-preisothapsa-2,8(12)-diene and 1-epi- and 1,8-diepipreisothapsa-2-en-12-ols, starting from the readily available monoterpene (R)-carvone, have been accomplished.