Nestling barn owls assess short-term variation in the amount of vocally competing siblings.

Assessing the amount of rivals is crucial to optimally adjust investment into a contest. If laboratory animals show numerical abilities, little is known about the ecological implications particularly in young animals. The two to nine barn owl (Tyto alba) siblings vocally compete for priority of access to food resources before parents actually deliver them. In dyads, the individual that vocalizes at the highest rate in the absence of parents deters its siblings from competing for next delivered prey. We tested the novel hypothesis that to optimally adjust vocal investment, barn owl nestlings assess how many of their siblings are currently competing. To singleton owlets, we broadcasted a fixed global number of calls emitted by one, two or four pre-recorded unfamiliar nestlings. We could thus distinguish the independent effect on singletons' vocal behavior of the global number of calls produced by a brood from the number of competitors that produced these calls. Overall, nestlings retreated more from vocal contest when facing more competitors. However, in front of one highly motivated competitor, nestlings refrained from vocalizing to a larger extent than when competing against more but less motivated individuals. Therefore, young animals assess variation in the number of currently competing siblings based on individual-specific vocal cues.

Short-term evaluation of non-absorbable microgranular hydroxyapatite infiltration in the guinea pig subepidermal abdominal region

Non-absorbable microgranular hydroxyapatite was infiltrated into the subepidermal abdominal region of guinea pigs in order to assess the possibility of using this material to correct deficiencies in orbital volume. Microgranular hydroxyapatite (2.0 ml) was subepidermally infiltrated into the abdominal region of 20 guinea pigs. The animals were divided into four experimental groups of 5 animals each, which were killed 7 (G1), 15 (G2), 30 (G3) and 60 (G4) days after infiltration. The area and the largest and smallest diameters of the nodules formed by infiltration were evaluated at the site of infiltration and histological examination was performed. The mean granuloma area was similar in all groups. Histopathological examination showed that the material remained isolated from surrounding tissues by a pseudocapsule that became denser throughout the experiment. A host reaction started with young fibroblastic tissue that evolved to dense tissue until cartilaginous tissue was formed in G4, progressively advancing towards the center of the granuloma from G1 to G4. Non-absorbable microgranular hydroxyapatite is an inert material that was well tolerated by the animals studied, with maintenance of the infiltrated volume, and may perhaps be useful to fill anophthalmic cavities.

Pilot study of the short-term physico-chemical stability of atenolol tablets stored in a multi-compartment compliance aid

Study objectives: There is a possibility that lower air, moisture and light protection could impact on physico-chemical stability of medicines inside multi-compartment compliance aids (MCCAs), although this has not yet been proved. The objectives of the study were to examine the physico-chemical stability of atenolol tablets stored in a compliance aid at room temperature, and at elevated temperature and humidity to simulate practice conditions. Methods: Atenolol 100 mg tablets in 28-chamber, plastic compliance aids with transparent lids were stored for four weeks at room temperature and at 40°C with 75% relative humidity. Tablets were also stored at room temperature in original packaging and Petri dishes. Physical tests were conducted to standards as laid down in the British Pharmacopoeia 2005, and dissolution to those of the United States Pharmacopoeia volume 24. Chemical stability was assessed by a validated high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) method. Results: Tablets at room temperature in original packaging, in compliance aids and Petri dishes remained the same in appearance and passed physico-chemical tests. Tablets exposed to 40°C with 75% relative humidity in compliance aids passed tests for uniformity of weight, friability and chemical stability but became pale and moist, softer (82 newtons ± 4; p< 0.0001) than tablets in the original packaging (118 newtons ± 6), more friable (0.14% loss of mass) compared with other tablets (0.005%), and failed the tests for disintegration (>15 minutes) and dissolution (only 15% atenolol released at 30 minutes). Conclusion: Although chemical stability was unaffected, storage in compliance aids at 40°C with 75% relative humidity softened atenolol tablets, prolonged disintegration time and hindered dissolution which could significantly reduce bioavailability. This formulation could be suitable for storage in compliance aids at 25°C, but not in hotter, humid weather.

Model Configuration And Data Management In The Short-Term Water Information Forecasting Tools

The Short-term Water Information and Forecasting Tools (SWIFT) is a suite of tools for flood and short-term streamflow forecasting, consisting of a collection of hydrologic model components and utilities. Catchments are modeled using conceptual subareas and a node-link structure for channel routing. The tools comprise modules for calibration, model state updating, output error correction, ensemble runs and data assimilation. Given the combinatorial nature of the modelling experiments and the sub-daily time steps typically used for simulations, the volume of model configurations and time series data is substantial and its management is not trivial. SWIFT is currently used mostly for research purposes but has also been used operationally, with intersecting but significantly different requirements. Early versions of SWIFT used mostly ad-hoc text files handled via Fortran code, with limited use of netCDF for time series data. The configuration and data handling modules have since been redesigned. The model configuration now follows a design where the data model is decoupled from the on-disk persistence mechanism. For research purposes the preferred on-disk format is JSON, to leverage numerous software libraries in a variety of languages, while retaining the legacy option of custom tab-separated text formats when it is a preferred access arrangement for the researcher. By decoupling data model and data persistence, it is much easier to interchangeably use for instance relational databases to provide stricter provenance and audit trail capabilities in an operational flood forecasting context. For the time series data, given the volume and required throughput, text based formats are usually inadequate. A schema derived from CF conventions has been designed to efficiently handle time series for SWIFT.

Short-term evaluation of non-absorbable microgranular hydroxyapatite infiltration in the guinea pig subepidermal abdominal region

Non-absorbable microgranular hydroxyapatite was infiltrated into the subepidermal abdominal region of guinea pigs in order to assess the possibility of using this material to correct deficiencies in orbital volume. Microgranular hydroxyapatite (2.0 ml) was subepidermally infiltrated into the abdominal region of 20 guinea pigs. The animals were divided into four experimental groups of 5 animals each, which were killed 7 (G1), 15 (G2), 30 (G3) and 60 (G4) days after infiltration. The area and the largest and smallest diameters of the nodules formed by infiltration were evaluated at the site of infiltration and histological examination was performed. The mean granuloma area was similar in all groups. Histopathological examination showed that the material remained isolated from surrounding tissues by a pseudocapsule that became denser throughout the experiment. A host reaction started with young fibroblastic tissue that evolved to dense tissue until cartilaginous tissue was formed in G4, progressively advancing towards the center of the granuloma from G1 to G4. Non-absorbable microgranular hydroxyapatite is an inert material that was well tolerated by the animals studied, with maintenance of the infiltrated volume, and may perhaps be useful to fill anophthalmic cavities.

Early Changes Induced by Short-Term Low-Dose Cadmium Exposure in Rat Ventral and Dorsolateral Prostates

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Short-term stromal alterations in the rat ventral prostate following alloxan-induced diabetes and the influence of insulin replacement

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Short-Term Antiandrogen Flutamide Treatment Causes Structural Alterations in Somatic Cells Associated with Premature Detachment of Spermatids in the Testis of Pubertal and Adult Guinea Pigs

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Short-term CO2-C emissions from soil prior to sugarcane (Saccharum spp.) replanting in southern Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Prior Heavy-Intensity Exercise's Enhancement of Oxygen-Uptake Kinetics and Short-Term High-Intensity Exercise Performance Independent of Aerobic-Training Status

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Temporal variability of damage potential on roads as a conceptual contribution towards a short-term avalanche risk simulation

The fatality risk caused by avalanches on road networks can be analysed using a long-term approach, resulting in a mean value of risk, and with emphasis on short-term fluctuations due to the temporal variability of both, the hazard potential and the damage potential. In this study, the approach for analysing the long-term fatality risk has been adapted by modelling the highly variable short-term risk. The emphasis was on the temporal variability of the damage potential and the related risk peaks. For defined hazard scenarios resulting from classified amounts of snow accumulation, the fatality risk was calculated by modelling the hazard potential and observing the traffic volume. The avalanche occurrence probability was calculated using a statistical relationship between new snow height and observed avalanche releases. The number of persons at risk was determined from the recorded traffic density. The method resulted in a value for the fatality risk within the observed time frame for the studied road segment. The long-term fatality risk due to snow avalanches as well as the short-term fatality risk was compared to the average fatality risk due to traffic accidents. The application of the method had shown that the long-term avalanche risk is lower than the fatality risk due to traffic accidents. The analyses of short-term avalanche-induced fatality risk provided risk peaks that were 50 times higher than the statistical accident risk. Apart from situations with high hazard level and high traffic density, risk peaks result from both, a high hazard level combined with a low traffic density and a high traffic density combined with a low hazard level. This provided evidence for the importance of the temporal variability of the damage potential for risk simulations on road networks. The assumed dependence of the risk calculation on the sum of precipitation within three days is a simplified model. Thus, further research is needed for an improved determination of the diurnal avalanche probability. Nevertheless, the presented approach may contribute as a conceptual step towards a risk-based decision-making in risk management.

Use of short term test systems for the prediction of the hazard represented by potential chemical carcinogens

It has been hypothesized that results from the short term bioassays will ultimately provide information that will be useful for human health hazard assessment. Although toxicologic test systems have become increasingly refined, to date, no investigator has been able to provide qualitative or quantitative methods which would support the use of short term tests in this capacity.^ Historically, the validity of the short term tests have been assessed using the framework of the epidemiologic/medical screens. In this context, the results of the carcinogen (long term) bioassay is generally used as the standard. However, this approach is widely recognized as being biased and, because it employs qualitative data, cannot be used in the setting of priorities. In contrast, the goal of this research was to address the problem of evaluating the utility of the short term tests for hazard assessment using an alternative method of investigation.^ Chemical carcinogens were selected from the list of carcinogens published by the International Agency for Research on Carcinogens (IARC). Tumorigenicity and mutagenicity data on fifty-two chemicals were obtained from the Registry of Toxic Effects of Chemical Substances (RTECS) and were analyzed using a relative potency approach. The relative potency framework allows for the standardization of data "relative" to a reference compound. To avoid any bias associated with the choice of the reference compound, fourteen different compounds were used.^ The data were evaluated in a format which allowed for a comparison of the ranking of the mutagenic relative potencies of the compounds (as estimated using short term data) vs. the ranking of the tumorigenic relative potencies (as estimated from the chronic bioassays). The results were statistically significant (p $<$.05) for data standardized to thirteen of the fourteen reference compounds. Although this was a preliminary investigation, it offers evidence that the short term test systems may be of utility in ranking the hazards represented by chemicals which may be human carcinogens. ^

Statistical models for short-term wind power ramp forecasting

La predicción de energía eólica ha desempeñado en la última década un papel fundamental en el aprovechamiento de este recurso renovable, ya que permite reducir el impacto que tiene la naturaleza fluctuante del viento en la actividad de diversos agentes implicados en su integración, tales como el operador del sistema o los agentes del mercado eléctrico. Los altos niveles de penetración eólica alcanzados recientemente por algunos países han puesto de manifiesto la necesidad de mejorar las predicciones durante eventos en los que se experimenta una variación importante de la potencia generada por un parque o un conjunto de ellos en un tiempo relativamente corto (del orden de unas pocas horas). Estos eventos, conocidos como rampas, no tienen una única causa, ya que pueden estar motivados por procesos meteorológicos que se dan en muy diferentes escalas espacio-temporales, desde el paso de grandes frentes en la macroescala a procesos convectivos locales como tormentas. Además, el propio proceso de conversión del viento en energía eléctrica juega un papel relevante en la ocurrencia de rampas debido, entre otros factores, a la relación no lineal que impone la curva de potencia del aerogenerador, la desalineación de la máquina con respecto al viento y la interacción aerodinámica entre aerogeneradores. En este trabajo se aborda la aplicación de modelos estadísticos a la predicción de rampas a muy corto plazo. Además, se investiga la relación de este tipo de eventos con procesos atmosféricos en la macroescala. Los modelos se emplean para generar predicciones de punto a partir del modelado estocástico de una serie temporal de potencia generada por un parque eólico. Los horizontes de predicción considerados van de una a seis horas. Como primer paso, se ha elaborado una metodología para caracterizar rampas en series temporales. La denominada función-rampa está basada en la transformada wavelet y proporciona un índice en cada paso temporal. Este índice caracteriza la intensidad de rampa en base a los gradientes de potencia experimentados en un rango determinado de escalas temporales. Se han implementado tres tipos de modelos predictivos de cara a evaluar el papel que juega la complejidad de un modelo en su desempeño: modelos lineales autorregresivos (AR), modelos de coeficientes variables (VCMs) y modelos basado en redes neuronales (ANNs). Los modelos se han entrenado en base a la minimización del error cuadrático medio y la configuración de cada uno de ellos se ha determinado mediante validación cruzada. De cara a analizar la contribución del estado macroescalar de la atmósfera en la predicción de rampas, se ha propuesto una metodología que permite extraer, a partir de las salidas de modelos meteorológicos, información relevante para explicar la ocurrencia de estos eventos. La metodología se basa en el análisis de componentes principales (PCA) para la síntesis de la datos de la atmósfera y en el uso de la información mutua (MI) para estimar la dependencia no lineal entre dos señales. Esta metodología se ha aplicado a datos de reanálisis generados con un modelo de circulación general (GCM) de cara a generar variables exógenas que posteriormente se han introducido en los modelos predictivos. Los casos de estudio considerados corresponden a dos parques eólicos ubicados en España. Los resultados muestran que el modelado de la serie de potencias permitió una mejora notable con respecto al modelo predictivo de referencia (la persistencia) y que al añadir información de la macroescala se obtuvieron mejoras adicionales del mismo orden. Estas mejoras resultaron mayores para el caso de rampas de bajada. Los resultados también indican distintos grados de conexión entre la macroescala y la ocurrencia de rampas en los dos parques considerados. Abstract One of the main drawbacks of wind energy is that it exhibits intermittent generation greatly depending on environmental conditions. Wind power forecasting has proven to be an effective tool for facilitating wind power integration from both the technical and the economical perspective. Indeed, system operators and energy traders benefit from the use of forecasting techniques, because the reduction of the inherent uncertainty of wind power allows them the adoption of optimal decisions. Wind power integration imposes new challenges as higher wind penetration levels are attained. Wind power ramp forecasting is an example of such a recent topic of interest. The term ramp makes reference to a large and rapid variation (1-4 hours) observed in the wind power output of a wind farm or portfolio. Ramp events can be motivated by a broad number of meteorological processes that occur at different time/spatial scales, from the passage of large-scale frontal systems to local processes such as thunderstorms and thermally-driven flows. Ramp events may also be conditioned by features related to the wind-to-power conversion process, such as yaw misalignment, the wind turbine shut-down and the aerodynamic interaction between wind turbines of a wind farm (wake effect). This work is devoted to wind power ramp forecasting, with special focus on the connection between the global scale and ramp events observed at the wind farm level. The framework of this study is the point-forecasting approach. Time series based models were implemented for very short-term prediction, this being characterised by prediction horizons up to six hours ahead. As a first step, a methodology to characterise ramps within a wind power time series was proposed. The so-called ramp function is based on the wavelet transform and it provides a continuous index related to the ramp intensity at each time step. The underlying idea is that ramps are characterised by high power output gradients evaluated under different time scales. A number of state-of-the-art time series based models were considered, namely linear autoregressive (AR) models, varying-coefficient models (VCMs) and artificial neural networks (ANNs). This allowed us to gain insights into how the complexity of the model contributes to the accuracy of the wind power time series modelling. The models were trained in base of a mean squared error criterion and the final set-up of each model was determined through cross-validation techniques. In order to investigate the contribution of the global scale into wind power ramp forecasting, a methodological proposal to identify features in atmospheric raw data that are relevant for explaining wind power ramp events was presented. The proposed methodology is based on two techniques: principal component analysis (PCA) for atmospheric data compression and mutual information (MI) for assessing non-linear dependence between variables. The methodology was applied to reanalysis data generated with a general circulation model (GCM). This allowed for the elaboration of explanatory variables meaningful for ramp forecasting that were utilized as exogenous variables by the forecasting models. The study covered two wind farms located in Spain. All the models outperformed the reference model (the persistence) during both ramp and non-ramp situations. Adding atmospheric information had a noticeable impact on the forecasting performance, specially during ramp-down events. Results also suggested different levels of connection between the ramp occurrence at the wind farm level and the global scale.

Acceptability of short term neo-adjuvant androgen deprivation in patients with locally advanced prostate cancer

Purpose: To determine the acceptability of short term neo-adjuvant maximal androgen deprivation (MAD) to patients treated with external beam radiation for locally advanced prostate cancer. Methods: Between 1996 and 2000, 818 patients with locally advanced, but non-metastatic, prostate cancer were entered into a randomised clinical trial (TROG 96.01), which compared radiation treatment alone with the same radiation treatment and 3 or 6 months neo-adjuvant MAD with goserelin and flutamide. Relevant symptoms, and how troublesome they were to the patient, were scored using a self-assessment questionnaire. This was completed by the patient at registration, and at specified times during and after treatment. Patients taking flutamide had liver function tests checked at regular intervals. Results: All patients have completed at least 12 months follow-up after treatment. Nearly all patients completed planned treatment with goserelin, but 27% of patients in the 6-month MAD treatment arm, and 20% in the 3-month arm, had to stop flutamide early. This was mainly due to altered liver function (up to 17% patients) and bowel side effects (up to 8% patients). However, although flutamide resulted in more bowel symptoms for patients on MAD, there was significant reduction in some urinary symptoms on this treatment. Acute bowel and urinary side effects at the end of radiation treatment were similar in all treatment arms. Side effect severity was unrelated to radiation target volume size, which was reduced by MAD, but symptomatology prior to any treatment was a powerful predictor. Of the 36% of patients who were sexually active before any treatment, the majority became inactive whilst on MAD. However, sexual activity at 12 months after radiation treatment was similar in all treatment arms, indicating that the effects of short term MAD on sexual function are reversible. Conclusion: Despite temporary effects on sexual activity, and compliance difficulties with flutamide, short-term neo-adjuvant MAD was not perceived by patients to be a major inconvenience. If neo-adjuvant MAD in the way tested can be demonstrated to lead to improved biochemical control and/or survival, then patients would view these therapeutic gains as worthwhile. Compliance with short-term goserelin was excellent, confirming that LH-RH analogues have a potential role in more long-term adjuvant treatment. However, for more protracted androgen deprivation, survival advantages and deleterious effects need to be assessed in parallel, in order to determine the optimal duration of treatment. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All fights reserved.