Evaluation of coupled ocean-atmosphere simulations of northern hemisphere extratropical climates in the mid-Holocene

We have used the BIOME4 biogeography–biochemistry model and comparison with palaeovegetation data to evaluate the response of six ocean–atmosphere general circulation models to mid-Holocene changes in orbital forcing in the mid- to high-latitudes of the northern hemisphere. All the models produce: (a) a northward shift of the northern limit of boreal forest, in response to simulated summer warming in high-latitudes. The northward shift is markedly asymmetric, with larger shifts in Eurasia than in North America; (b) an expansion of xerophytic vegetation in mid-continental North America and Eurasia, in response to increased temperatures during the growing season; (c) a northward expansion of temperate forests in eastern North America, in response to simulated winter warming. The northward shift of the northern limit of boreal forest and the northward expansion of temperate forests in North America are supported by palaeovegetation data. The expansion of xerophytic vegetation in mid-continental North America is consistent with palaeodata, although the extent may be over-estimated. The simulated expansion of xerophytic vegetation in Eurasia is not supported by the data. Analysis of an asynchronous coupling of one model to an equilibrium-vegetation model suggests vegetation feedback exacerbates this mid-continental drying and produces conditions more unlike the observations. Not all features of the simulations are robust: some models produce winter warming over Europe while others produce winter cooling. As a result, some models show a northward shift of temperate forests (consistent with, though less marked than, the expansion shown by data) and others produce a reduction in temperate forests. Elucidation of the cause of such differences is a focus of the current phase of the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project.

Freshwater transport in the coupled ocean-atmosphere system: a passive ocean

Conservation of water demands that meridional ocean and atmosphere freshwater transports (FWT) are of equal magnitude but opposite in direction. This suggests that the atmospheric FWT and its associated latent heat (LH) transport could be thought of as a \textquotedblleft coupled ocean/atmosphere mode\textquotedblright. But what is the true nature of this coupling? Is the ocean passive or active? Here we analyze a series of simulations with a coupled ocean-atmosphere-sea ice model employing highly idealized geometries but with markedly different coupled climates and patterns of ocean circulation. Exploiting streamfunctions in specific humidity coordinates for the atmosphere and salt coordinates for the ocean to represent FWT in their respective medium, we find that atmospheric FWT/LH transport is essentially independent of the ocean state. Ocean circulation and salinity distribution adjust to achieve a return freshwater pathway demanded of them by the atmosphere. So, although ocean and atmosphere FWTs are indeed coupled by mass conservation, the ocean is a passive component acting as a reservoir of freshwater.

Amplified inception of European Little Ice Age by sea ice-ocean-atmosphere feedbacks

The inception of the Little Ice Age (~1400–1700 AD) is believed to have been driven by an interplay of external forcing and climate system internal variability. While the hemispheric signal seems to have been dominated by solar irradiance and volcanic eruptions, the understanding of mechanisms shaping the climate on a continental scale is less robust. In an ensemble of transient model simulations and a new type of sensitivity experiments with artificial sea ice growth, the authors identify a sea ice–ocean–atmosphere feedback mechanism that amplifies the Little Ice Age cooling in the North Atlantic–European region and produces the temperature pattern suggested by paleoclimatic reconstructions. Initiated by increasing negative forcing, the Arctic sea ice substantially expands at the beginning of the Little Ice Age. The excess of sea ice is exported to the subpolar North Atlantic, where it melts, thereby weakening convection of the ocean. Consequently, northward ocean heat transport is reduced, reinforcing the expansion of the sea ice and the cooling of the Northern Hemisphere. In the Nordic Seas, sea surface height anomalies cause the oceanic recirculation to strengthen at the expense of the warm Barents Sea inflow, thereby further reinforcing sea ice growth. The absent ocean–atmosphere heat flux in the Barents Sea results in an amplified cooling over Northern Europe. The positive nature of this feedback mechanism enables sea ice to remain in an expanded state for decades up to a century, favoring sustained cold periods over Europe such as the Little Ice Age. Support for the feedback mechanism comes from recent proxy reconstructions around the Nordic Seas.

Simulated Bromoform emission and concentration using the ocean biogeochemistry model MPIOM/HAMOCC forced by 6-hourly NCEP data

Bromoform (CHBr3) is one important precursor of atmospheric reactive bromine species that are involved in ozone depletion in the troposphere and stratosphere. In the open ocean bromoform production is linked to phytoplankton that contains the enzyme bromoperoxidase. Coastal sources of bromoform are higher than open ocean sources. However, open ocean emissions are important because the transfer of tracers into higher altitude in the air, i.e. into the ozone layer, strongly depends on the location of emissions. For example, emissions in the tropics are more rapidly transported into the upper atmosphere than emissions from higher latitudes. Global spatio-temporal features of bromoform emissions are poorly constrained. Here, a global three-dimensional ocean biogeochemistry model (MPIOM-HAMOCC) is used to simulate bromoform cycling in the ocean and emissions into the atmosphere using recently published data of global atmospheric concentrations (Ziska et al., 2013) as upper boundary conditions. Our simulated surface concentrations of CHBr3 match the observations well. Simulated global annual emissions based on monthly mean model output are lower than previous estimates, including the estimate by Ziska et al. (2013), because the gas exchange reverses when less bromoform is produced in non-blooming seasons. This is the case for higher latitudes, i.e. the polar regions and northern North Atlantic. Further model experiments show that future model studies may need to distinguish different bromoform-producing phytoplankton species and reveal that the transport of CHBr3 from the coast considerably alters open ocean bromoform concentrations, in particular in the northern sub-polar and polar regions.

Simulated Methyl iodide emission and concentration using the ocean biogeochemistry model MPIOM/HAMOCC forced by OMIP data

Production pathways of the prominent volatile organic halogen compound methyl iodide (CH3I) are not fully understood. Based on observations, production of CH3I via photochemical degradation of organic material or via phytoplankton production has been proposed. Additional insights could not be gained from correlations between observed biological and environmental variables or from biogeochemical modeling to identify unambiguously the source of methyl iodide. In this study, we aim to address this question of source mechanisms with a three-dimensional global ocean general circulation model including biogeochemistry (MPIOM-HAMOCC (MPIOM - Max Planck Institute Ocean Model HAMOCC - HAMburg Ocean Carbon Cycle model)) by carrying out a series of sensitivity experiments. The simulated fields are compared with a newly available global data set. Simulated distribution patterns and emissions of CH3I differ largely for the two different production pathways. The evaluation of our model results with observations shows that, on the global scale, observed surface concentrations of CH3I can be best explained by the photochemical production pathway. Our results further emphasize that correlations between CH3I and abiotic or biotic factors do not necessarily provide meaningful insights concerning the source of origin. Overall, we find a net global annual CH3I air-sea flux that ranges between 70 and 260 Gg/yr. On the global scale, the ocean acts as a net source of methyl iodide for the atmosphere, though in some regions in boreal winter, fluxes are of the opposite direction (from the atmosphere to the ocean).

Ocean-Atmosphere Interactions: Linking Oceanic Biological Activity to Marine Aerosol Physico-Chemical and Cloud Properties

In this work, in-situ measurements of aerosol chemical composition, particle number size distribution, cloud-relevant properties and ground-based cloud observations were combined with high-resolution satellite sea surface chlorophyll-a concentration and air mass back-trajectory data to investigate the impact of the marine biota on aerosol physico-chemical and cloud properties. Studies were performed over the North-Eastern Atlantic Ocean, the central Mediterranean Sea, and the Arctic Ocean, by deploying both multi-year datasets and short-time scale observations. All the data were chosen to be representative of the marine atmosphere, reducing to a minimum any anthropogenic input. A relationship between the patterns of marine biological activity and the time evolution of marine aerosol properties was observed, under a variety of aspects, from chemical composition to number concentration and size distribution, up to the most cloud‐relevant properties. At short-time scales (1-2 months), the aerosol properties tend to respond to biological activity variations with a delay of about one to three weeks. This delay should be considered in model applications that make use of Chlorophyll-a to predict marine aerosol properties at high temporal resolution. The impact of oceanic biological activity on the microphysical properties of marine stratiform clouds is also evidenced by our analysis, over the Eastern North Atlantic Ocean. Such clouds tend to have a higher number of smaller cloud droplets in periods of high biological activity with respect to quiescent periods. This confirms the possibility of feedback interactions within the biota-aerosol-cloud climate system. Achieving a better characterization of the time and space relationships linking oceanic biological activity to marine aerosol composition and properties may significantly impact our future capability of predicting the chemical composition of the marine atmosphere, potentially contributing to reducing the uncertainty of future climate predictions, through a better understanding of the natural climate system.

A coupled ocean-atmosphere system for short term forecasting in the southern european seas

This coupled model combines two state-of-the-art numerical models, NEMO for the oceanic component and WRF for the atmospheric component and implements them at an appropriate resolution. The oceanic model has been implemented starting from the Mediterranean Forecasting System with a resolution of 1/24° and the domain was extended to exactly match the grid of a newly implemented atmospheric model for the same area. The uncoupled ocean model has been validated against SST observed data, both in the simulation of an extreme event and in the short-term forecast of two seasonal periods. A new setup of the model was successfully tested in which the downward radiative fluxes were prescribed from atmospheric forecasts. Various physical schemes, domain, boundary, and initial conditions were tested with the atmospheric model to obtain the best representation of medicane Ianos. The heat fluxes calculated by the uncoupled models were compared to determine which setup gave the best energy balance between the components of the coupled model. The coupling strategy used is the traditional one, where the ocean is driven by the surface stress, heat fluxes, and radiative fluxes computed in the atmospheric component, which in turn receives the SST and surface currents. As expected, the overall skills of the coupled model are slightly degraded compared to the uncoupled models, even though the positioning and timing of the cyclone at the time of the landfall is enhanced. The mean heat fluxes do not change compared to the uncoupled model, whereas the pattern of the shortwave radiation and latent heat is changed. Moreover, the two energy fluxes are larger in absolute values than those calculated with the MFS formulas. The fact that they have opposite signs give raise to a compensation error that limits the overall degradation of the coupled simulation.

The effect of doubled CO2 and model basic state biases on the monsoon-ENSO system. I: Mean response and interannual variability

The impact of doubled CO2 concentration on the Asian summer monsoon is studied using a coupled ocean-atmosphere model. Both the mean seasonal precipitation and interannual monsoon variability are found to increase in the future climate scenario presented. Systematic biases in current climate simulations of the coupled system prevent accurate representation of the monsoon-ENSO teleconnection, of prime importance for seasonal prediction and for determining monsoon interannual variability. By applying seasonally varying heat flux adjustments to the tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean surface in the future climate simulation, some assessment can be made of the impact of systematic model biases on future climate predictions. In simulations where the flux adjustments are implemented, the response to climate change is magnified, with the suggestion that systematic biases may be masking the true impact of increased greenhouse gas forcing. The teleconnection between ENSO and the Asian summer monsoon remains robust in the future climate, although the Indo-Pacific takes on more of a biennial character for long periods of the flux-adjusted simulation. Assessing the teleconnection across interdecadal timescales shows wide variations in its amplitude, despite the absence of external forcing. This suggests that recent changes in the observed record cannot be distinguished from internal variations and as such are not necessarily related to climate change.

Storm track sensitivity to sea surface temperature resolution in a regional atmosphere model

A high resolution regional atmosphere model is used to investigate the sensitivity of the North Atlantic storm track to the spatial and temporal resolution of the sea surface temperature (SST) data used as a lower boundary condition. The model is run over an unusually large domain covering all of the North Atlantic and Europe, and is shown to produce a very good simulation of the observed storm track structure. The model is forced at the lateral boundaries with 15–20 years of data from the ERA-40 reanalysis, and at the lower boundary by SST data of differing resolution. The impacts of increasing spatial and temporal resolution are assessed separately, and in both cases increasing the resolution leads to subtle, but significant changes in the storm track. In some, but not all cases these changes act to reduce the small storm track biases seen in the model when it is forced with low-resolution SSTs. In addition there are several clear mesoscale responses to increased spatial SST resolution, with surface heat fluxes and convective precipitation increasing by 10–20% along the Gulf Stream SST gradient.