Impact of recommendation updates in well-controlled patients on nonrecommended antiretroviral therapies: the Swiss HIV cohort study.

BACKGROUND: HIV treatment recommendations are updated as clinical trials are published. Whether recommendations drive clinicians to change antiretroviral therapy in well-controlled patients is unexplored. METHODS: We selected patients with undetectable viral loads (VLs) on nonrecommended regimens containing double-boosted protease inhibitors (DBPIs), triple-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTIs), or didanosine (ddI) plus stavudine (d4T) at publication of the 2006 International AIDS Society recommendations. We compared demographic and clinical characteristics with those of control patients with undetectable VL not on these regimens and examined clinical outcome and reasons for treatment modification. RESULTS: At inclusion, 104 patients were in the DBPI group, 436 in the triple-NRTI group, and 19 in the ddI/d4T group. By 2010, 28 (29%), 204 (52%), and 1 (5%) patient were still on DBPIs, triple-NRTIs, and ddI plus d4T, respectively. 'Physician decision,' excluding toxicity/virological failure, drove 30% of treatment changes. Predictors of recommendation nonobservance included female sex [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 2.69, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1 to 7.26; P = 0.01] for DPBIs, and undetectable VL (aOR 3.53, 95% CI 1.6 to 7.8; P = 0.002) and lack of cardiovascular events (aOR 2.93, 95% CI 1.23 to 6.97; P = 0.02) for triple-NRTIs. All patients on DBPIs with documented diabetes or a cardiovascular event changed treatment. Recommendation observance resulted in lower cholesterol values in the DBPI group (P = 0.06), and more patients having undetectable VL (P = 0.02) in the triple-NRTI group. CONCLUSION: The physician's decision is the main factor driving change from nonrecommended to recommended regimens, whereas virological suppression is associated with not switching. Positive clinical outcomes observed postswitch underline the importance of observing recommendations, even in well-controlled patients.

Epidemiology of incident heart failure in a contemporary elderly cohort: the health, aging, and body composition study.

BACKGROUND: The race- and sex-specific epidemiology of incident heart failure (HF) among a contemporary elderly cohort are not well described. METHODS: We studied 2934 participants without HF enrolled in the Health, Aging, and Body Composition Study (mean [SD] age, 73.6 [2.9] years; 47.9% men; 58.6% white; and 41.4% black) and assessed the incidence of HF, population-attributable risk (PAR) of independent risk factors for HF, and outcomes of incident HF. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 7.1 years, 258 participants (8.8%) developed HF (13.6 cases per 1000 person-years; 95% confidence interval, 12.1-15.4). Men and black participants were more likely to develop HF. No significant sex-based differences were observed in risk factors. Coronary heart disease (PAR, 23.9% for white participants and 29.5% for black participants) and uncontrolled blood pressure (PAR, 21.3% for white participants and 30.1% for black participants) carried the highest PAR in both races. Among black participants, 6 of 8 risk factors assessed (smoking, increased heart rate, coronary heart disease, left ventricular hypertrophy, uncontrolled blood pressure, and reduced glomerular filtration rate) had more than 5% higher PAR compared with that among white participants, leading to a higher overall proportion of HF attributable to modifiable risk factors in black participants vs white participants (67.8% vs 48.9%). Participants who developed HF had higher annual mortality (18.0% vs 2.7%). No racial difference in survival after HF was noted; however, rehospitalization rates were higher among black participants (62.1 vs 30.3 hospitalizations per 100 person-years, P < .001). CONCLUSIONS: Incident HF is common in older persons; a large proportion of HF risk is attributed to modifiable risk factors. Racial differences in risk factors for HF and in hospitalization rates after HF need to be considered in prevention and treatment efforts.

Stereoselective block of hERG channel by (S)-methadone and QT interval prolongation in CYP2B6 slow metabolizers.

Methadone inhibits the cardiac potassium channel hERG and can cause a prolonged QT interval. Methadone is chiral but its therapeutic activity is mainly due to (R)-methadone. Whole-cell patch-clamp experiments using cells expressing hERG showed that (S)-methadone blocked the hERG current 3.5-fold more potently than (R)-methadone (IC50s (half-maximal inhibitory concentrations) at 37 degrees C: 2 and 7 microM). As CYP2B6 slow metabolizer (SM) status results in a reduced ability to metabolize (S)-methadone, electrocardiograms, CYP2B6 genotypes, and (R)- and (S)-methadone plasma concentrations were obtained for 179 patients receiving (R,S)-methadone. The mean heart-rate-corrected QT (QTc) was higher in CYP2B6 SMs (*6/*6 genotype; 439+/-25 ms; n=11) than in extensive metabolizers (non *6/*6; 421+/-25 ms; n=168; P=0.017). CYP2B6 SM status was associated with an increased risk of prolonged QTc (odds ratio=4.5, 95% confidence interval=1.2-17.7; P=0.03). This study reports the first genetic factor implicated in methadone metabolism that may increase the risk of cardiac arrhythmias and sudden death. This risk could be reduced by the administration of (R)-methadone.

QT interval in healthy dogs: which method of correcting the QT interval in dogs is appropriate for use in small animal clinics?

The electrocardiography (ECG) QT interval is influenced by fluctuations in heart rate (HR) what may lead to misinterpretation of its length. Considering that alterations in QT interval length reflect abnormalities of the ventricular repolarisation which predispose to occurrence of arrhythmias, this variable must be properly evaluated. The aim of this work is to determine which method of correcting the QT interval is the most appropriate for dogs regarding different ranges of normal HR (different breeds). Healthy adult dogs (n=130; German Shepherd, Boxer, Pit Bull Terrier, and Poodle) were submitted to ECG examination and QT intervals were determined in triplicates from the bipolar limb II lead and corrected for the effects of HR through the application of three published formulae involving quadratic, cubic or linear regression. The mean corrected QT values (QTc) obtained using the diverse formulae were significantly different (ρ<0.05), while those derived according to the equation QTcV = QT + 0.087(1- RR) were the most consistent (linear regression). QTcV values were strongly correlated (r=0.83) with the QT interval and showed a coefficient of variation of 8.37% and a 95% confidence interval of 0.22-0.23 s. Owing to its simplicity and reliability, the QTcV was considered the most appropriate to be used for the correction of QT interval in dogs.

Temperature, air pollution, and mortality from myocardial infarction in São Paulo, Brazil

An increase in daily mortality from myocardial infarction has been observed in association with meteorological factors and air pollution in several cities in the world, mainly in the northern hemisphere. The objective of the present study was to analyze the independent effects of environmental variables on daily counts of death from myocardial infarction in a subtropical region in South America. We used the robust Poisson regression to investigate associations between weather (temperature, humidity and barometric pressure), air pollution (sulfur dioxide, carbon monoxide, and inhalable particulate), and the daily death counts attributed to myocardial infarction in the city of São Paulo in Brazil, where 12,007 fatal events were observed from 1996 to 1998. The model was adjusted in a linear fashion for relative humidity and day-of-week, while nonparametric smoothing factors were used for seasonal trend and temperature. We found a significant association of daily temperature with deaths due to myocardial infarction (P < 0.001), with the lowest mortality being observed at temperatures between 21.6 and 22.6ºC. Relative humidity appeared to exert a protective effect. Sulfur dioxide concentrations correlated linearly with myocardial infarction deaths, increasing the number of fatal events by 3.4% (relative risk of 1.03; 95% confidence interval = 1.02-1.05) for each 10 µg/m³ increase. In conclusion, this study provides evidence of important associations between daily temperature and air pollution and mortality from myocardial infarction in a subtropical region, even after a comprehensive control for confounding factors.

Identification, Weak Instruments and Statistical Inference in Econometrics

We discuss statistical inference problems associated with identification and testability in econometrics, and we emphasize the common nature of the two issues. After reviewing the relevant statistical notions, we consider in turn inference in nonparametric models and recent developments on weakly identified models (or weak instruments). We point out that many hypotheses, for which test procedures are commonly proposed, are not testable at all, while some frequently used econometric methods are fundamentally inappropriate for the models considered. Such situations lead to ill-defined statistical problems and are often associated with a misguided use of asymptotic distributional results. Concerning nonparametric hypotheses, we discuss three basic problems for which such difficulties occur: (1) testing a mean (or a moment) under (too) weak distributional assumptions; (2) inference under heteroskedasticity of unknown form; (3) inference in dynamic models with an unlimited number of parameters. Concerning weakly identified models, we stress that valid inference should be based on proper pivotal functions —a condition not satisfied by standard Wald-type methods based on standard errors — and we discuss recent developments in this field, mainly from the viewpoint of building valid tests and confidence sets. The techniques discussed include alternative proposed statistics, bounds, projection, split-sampling, conditioning, Monte Carlo tests. The possibility of deriving a finite-sample distributional theory, robustness to the presence of weak instruments, and robustness to the specification of a model for endogenous explanatory variables are stressed as important criteria assessing alternative procedures.

Point estimates and confidence regions for sequential trials involving selection

A number of authors have proposed clinical trial designs involving the comparison of several experimental treatments with a control treatment in two or more stages. At the end of the first stage, the most promising experimental treatment is selected, and all other experimental treatments are dropped from the trial. Provided it is good enough, the selected experimental treatment is then compared with the control treatment in one or more subsequent stages. The analysis of data from such a trial is problematic because of the treatment selection and the possibility of stopping at interim analyses. These aspects lead to bias in the maximum-likelihood estimate of the advantage of the selected experimental treatment over the control and to inaccurate coverage for the associated confidence interval. In this paper, we evaluate the bias of the maximum-likelihood estimate and propose a bias-adjusted estimate. We also propose an approach to the construction of a confidence region for the vector of advantages of the experimental treatments over the control based on an ordering of the sample space. These regions are shown to have accurate coverage, although they are also shown to be necessarily unbounded. Confidence intervals for the advantage of the selected treatment are obtained from the confidence regions and are shown to have more accurate coverage than the standard confidence interval based upon the maximum-likelihood estimate and its asymptotic standard error.

Cost-effectiveness of a preventive counseling and support package for postnatal depression

Objectives: This study reports the cost-effectiveness of a preventive intervention, consisting of counseling and specific support for the mother-infant relationship, targeted at women at high risk of developing postnatal depression. Methods: A prospective economic evaluation was conducted alongside a pragmatic randomized controlled trial in which women considered at high risk of developing postnatal depression were allocated randomly to the preventive intervention (n = 74) or to routine primary care (n = 77). The primary outcome measure was the duration of postnatal depression experienced during the first 18 months postpartum. Data on health and social care use by women and their infants up to 18 months postpartum were collected, using a combination of prospective diaries and face-to-face interviews, and then were combined with unit costs ( pound, year 2000 prices) to obtain a net cost per mother-infant dyad. The nonparametric bootstrap method was used to present cost-effectiveness acceptability curves and net benefit statistics at alternative willingness to pay thresholds held by decision makers for preventing 1 month of postnatal depression. Results: Women in the preventive intervention group were depressed for an average of 2.21 months (9.57 weeks) during the study period, whereas women in the routine primary care group were depressed for an average of 2.70 months (11.71 weeks). The mean health and social care costs were estimated at 2,396.9 pound per mother-infant dyad in the preventive intervention group and 2,277.5 pound per mother-infant dyad in the routine primary care group, providing a mean cost difference of 119.5 pound (bootstrap 95 percent confidence interval [Cl], -535.4, 784.9). At a willingness to pay threshold of 1,000 pound per month of postnatal depression avoided, the probability that the preventive intervention is cost-effective is .71 and the mean net benefit is 383.4 pound (bootstrap 95 percent Cl, -863.3- pound 1,581.5) pound. Conclusions: The preventive intervention is likely to be cost-effective even at relatively low willingness to pay thresholds for preventing 1 month of postnatal depression during the first 18 months postpartum. Given the negative impact of postnatal depression on later child development, further research is required that investigates the longer-term cost-effectiveness of the preventive intervention in high risk women.

Non-asymptotic confidence bounds for the optimal value of a stochastic program

We discuss a general approach to building non-asymptotic confidence bounds for stochastic optimization problems. Our principal contribution is the observation that a Sample Average Approximation of a problem supplies upper and lower bounds for the optimal value of the problem which are essentially better than the quality of the corresponding optimal solutions. At the same time, such bounds are more reliable than “standard” confidence bounds obtained through the asymptotic approach. We also discuss bounding the optimal value of MinMax Stochastic Optimization and stochastically constrained problems. We conclude with a small simulation study illustrating the numerical behavior of the proposed bounds.

Changes in periodontal conditions of children and adolescents from Araraquara, Brazil: 1995-1998.

The aim of this study was to compare the periodontal conditions in 7-15-year-olds from Araraquara, SP, Brazil in 1998 with data from 1995. A systematic random sample was drawn from the population of children and adolescents enrolled in all public schools in 1998. The survey was conducted by trained examiners using the CPITN and WHO diagnostic criteria. Results showed an increase in the percentage of students of all ages with healthy periodontal conditions (from 14% in 1995 to 33% in 1998; p < 0.01). An increase in the mean number of healthy sextants (from 3.2 to 4.4; p < 0.0001), a decrease in the mean number of bleeding sextants (from 2.5 to 1.2; p < 0.0001) and no difference in the mean number of sextants with calculus were also observed. At the age of 15, 54% of the students had 5-6 healthy sextants in 1998 compared to 19% in 1995 (p < 0.01). Despite the improvement observed in the periodontal conditions, efforts must be increased in order to achieve the WHO goal for the year 2010 of no more than one sextant affected by bleeding or calculus at the age of 15.

Disproportionate pregnancy-induced myocardial hypertrophy in women with essential hypertension

BACKGROUND Pregnancy and arterial hypertension (AH) have a prohypertrophic effect on the heart. It is suspected that the 2 conditions combined cause disproportionate myocardial hypertrophy. We sought to evaluate myocardial hypertrophy (LVH) and left ventricular function in normotensive and hypertensive women in the presence or absence of pregnancy.METHODS This prospective cross-sectional study included 193 women divided into 4 groups: hypertensive pregnant (HTP; n = 57), normotensive pregnant (NTP; n = 47), hypertensive nonpregnant (HTNP; n = 41), and normotensive nonpregnant (NTNP; n = 48). After clinical and echocardiographic evaluation, the variables were analyzed using 2-way analysis of variance with pregnancy and hypertension as factors. Left ventricular mass (LVM) was compared using nonparametric analysis of variance and Dunn′s test. Predictors of LVH and diastolic dysfunction were analyzed using logistic regression (significance level, P < 0.05).RESULTS Myocardial hypertrophy was independently associated with hypertension (odds ratio (OR) = 11.1, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 3.2-38.5; P < 0.001) and pregnancy (OR = 6.1, 95% CI = 2.6-14.3; P < 0.001) in a model adjusted for age and body mass index. Nonpregnant women were at greater risk of LVH in the presence of AH (OR = 25.3, 95% CI = 3.15-203.5; P = 0.002). The risk was additionally increased in hypertensive women during pregnancy (OR = 4.3, 95% CI = 1.7-10.9; P = 0.002) in the model adjusted for stroke volume and antihypertensive medication. Although none of the NTNP women presented with diastolic dysfunction, it was observed in 2% of the NTP women, 29% of the HTNP women, and 42% of the HTP women (P < 0.05).CONCLUSIONS Hypertension and pregnancy have a synergistic effect on ventricular remodeling, which elevates a woman's risk of myocardial hypertrophy. © 2013 © American Journal of Hypertension, Ltd 2013. All rights reserved.

Immunologic response to antiretroviral therapy in hepatitis C virus-coinfected adults in a population-based HIV/AIDS treatment program

BACKGROUND: We sought to characterize the impact that hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection has on CD4 cells during the first 48 weeks of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in previously ART-naive human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected patients. METHODS: The HIV/AIDS Drug Treatment Programme at the British Columbia Centre for Excellence in HIV/AIDS distributes all ART in this Canadian province. Eligible individuals were those whose first-ever ART included 2 nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors and either a protease inhibitor or a nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor and who had a documented positive result for HCV antibody testing. Outcomes were binary events (time to an increase of > or = 75 CD4 cells/mm3 or an increase of > or = 10% in the percentage of CD4 cells in the total T cell population [CD4 cell fraction]) and continuous repeated measures. Statistical analyses used parametric and nonparametric methods, including multivariate mixed-effects linear regression analysis and Cox proportional hazards analysis. RESULTS: Of 1186 eligible patients, 606 (51%) were positive and 580 (49%) were negative for HCV antibodies. HCV antibody-positive patients were slower to have an absolute (P<.001) and a fraction (P = .02) CD4 cell event. In adjusted Cox proportional hazards analysis (controlling for age, sex, baseline absolute CD4 cell count, baseline pVL, type of ART initiated, AIDS diagnosis at baseline, adherence to ART regimen, and number of CD4 cell measurements), HCV antibody-positive patients were less likely to have an absolute CD4 cell event (adjusted hazard ratio [AHR], 0.84 [95% confidence interval [CI], 0.72-0.98]) and somewhat less likely to have a CD4 cell fraction event (AHR, 0.89 [95% CI, 0.70-1.14]) than HCV antibody-negative patients. In multivariate mixed-effects linear regression analysis, HCV antibody-negative patients had increases of an average of 75 cells in the absolute CD4 cell count and 4.4% in the CD4 cell fraction, compared with 20 cells and 1.1% in HCV antibody-positive patients, during the first 48 weeks of ART, after adjustment for time-updated pVL, number of CD4 cell measurements, and other factors. CONCLUSION: HCV antibody-positive HIV-infected patients may have an altered immunologic response to ART.

Electrocardiographic PR interval and adverse outcomes in older adults: the Health, Aging, and Body Composition study

BACKGROUND The electrocardiographic PR interval increases with aging, differs by race, and is associated with atrial fibrillation (AF), pacemaker implantation, and all-cause mortality. We sought to determine the associations between PR interval and heart failure, AF, and mortality in a biracial cohort of older adults. METHODS AND RESULTS The Health, Aging, and Body Composition (Health ABC) Study is a prospective, biracial cohort. We used multivariable Cox proportional hazards models to examine PR interval (hazard ratios expressed per SD increase) and 10-year risks of heart failure, AF, and all-cause mortality. Multivariable models included demographic, anthropometric, and clinical variables in addition to established cardiovascular risk factors. We examined 2722 Health ABC participants (aged 74±3 years, 51.9% women, and 41% black). We did not identify significant effect modification by race for the outcomes studied. After multivariable adjustment, every SD increase (29 ms) in PR interval was associated with a 13% greater 10-year risk of heart failure (95% confidence interval, 1.02-1.25) and a 13% increased risk of incident AF (95% confidence interval, 1.04-1.23). PR interval >200 ms was associated with a 46% increased risk of incident heart failure (95% confidence interval, 1.11-1.93). PR interval was not associated with increased all-cause mortality. CONCLUSIONS We identified significant relationships of PR interval to heart failure and AF in older adults. Our findings extend prior investigations by examining PR interval and associations with adverse outcomes in a biracial cohort of older men and women.

Intraoperative Continuous Norepinephrine Infusion Combined with Restrictive Deferred Hydration Significantly Reduces the Need for Blood Transfusion in Patients Undergoing Open Radical Cystectomy: Results of a Prospective Randomised Trial

BACKGROUND Open radical cystectomy (ORC) is associated with substantial blood loss and a high incidence of perioperative blood transfusions. Strategies to reduce blood loss and blood transfusion are warranted. OBJECTIVE To determine whether continuous norepinephrine administration combined with intraoperative restrictive hydration with Ringer's maleate solution can reduce blood loss and the need for blood transfusion. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS This was a double-blind, randomised, parallel-group, single-centre trial including 166 consecutive patients undergoing ORC with urinary diversion (UD). Exclusion criteria were severe hepatic or renal dysfunction, congestive heart failure, and contraindications to epidural analgesia. INTERVENTION Patients were randomly allocated to continuous norepinephrine administration starting with 2 μg/kg per hour combined with 1 ml/kg per hour until the bladder was removed, then to 3 ml/kg per hour of Ringer's maleate solution (norepinephrine/low-volume group) or 6 ml/kg per hour of Ringer's maleate solution throughout surgery (control group). OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS Intraoperative blood loss and the percentage of patients requiring blood transfusions perioperatively were assessed. Data were analysed using nonparametric statistical models. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS Total median blood loss was 800 ml (range: 300-1700) in the norepinephrine/low-volume group versus 1200 ml (range: 400-2800) in the control group (p<0.0001). In the norepinephrine/low-volume group, 27 of 83 patients (33%) required an average of 1.8 U (±0.8) of packed red blood cells (PRBCs). In the control group, 50 of 83 patients (60%) required an average of 2.9 U (±2.1) of PRBCs during hospitalisation (relative risk: 0.54; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.38-0.77; p=0.0006). The absolute reduction in transfusion rate throughout hospitalisation was 28% (95% CI, 12-45). In this study, surgery was performed by three high-volume surgeons using a standardised technique, so whether these significant results are reproducible in other centres needs to be shown. CONCLUSIONS Continuous norepinephrine administration combined with restrictive hydration significantly reduces intraoperative blood loss, the rate of blood transfusions, and the number of PRBC units required per patient undergoing ORC with UD.