Evaluating Risks of Dam-Reservoir Systems Using Efficient Importance Sampling

The occurrence frequency of failure events serve as critical indexes representing the safety status of dam-reservoir systems. Although overtopping is the most common failure mode with significant consequences, this type of event, in most cases, has a small probability. Estimation of such rare event risks for dam-reservoir systems with crude Monte Carlo (CMC) simulation techniques requires a prohibitively large number of trials, where significant computational resources are required to reach the satisfied estimation results. Otherwise, estimation of the disturbances would not be accurate enough. In order to reduce the computation expenses and improve the risk estimation efficiency, an importance sampling (IS) based simulation approach is proposed in this dissertation to address the overtopping risks of dam-reservoir systems. Deliverables of this study mainly include the following five aspects: 1) the reservoir inflow hydrograph model; 2) the dam-reservoir system operation model; 3) the CMC simulation framework; 4) the IS-based Monte Carlo (ISMC) simulation framework; and 5) the overtopping risk estimation comparison of both CMC and ISMC simulation. In a broader sense, this study meets the following three expectations: 1) to address the natural stochastic characteristics of the dam-reservoir system, such as the reservoir inflow rate; 2) to build up the fundamental CMC and ISMC simulation frameworks of the dam-reservoir system in order to estimate the overtopping risks; and 3) to compare the simulation results and the computational performance in order to demonstrate the ISMC simulation advantages. The estimation results of overtopping probability could be used to guide the future dam safety investigations and studies, and to supplement the conventional analyses in decision making on the dam-reservoir system improvements. At the same time, the proposed methodology of ISMC simulation is reasonably robust and proved to improve the overtopping risk estimation. The more accurate estimation, the smaller variance, and the reduced CPU time, expand the application of Monte Carlo (MC) technique on evaluating rare event risks for infrastructures.

Authentic and conventional assessment in Singapore schools : an empirical study of teacher assignments and student work

This is an empirical examination of the quality of teacher assignments and student work in Singapore schools. Using a theoretical framework based on principles of authentic assessment and intellectual quality, two sets of criteria and scoring rubrics were developed for the training of expert teachers to judge the quality of assignments and student work. Following rigorous training, the inter-rater reliability of expert teacher scoring was high. Samples of teacher assignments and student work were collected in English, social studies, mathematics, and science subject areas from a random stratified sample of 30 elementary schools and 29 high schools. For both grade levels, there were significant differences for the authentic intellectual quality of teachers’ assignments by subject area. Likewise, the differences of authentic intellectual quality for student work were significant and varied by subject area. Subject area effect was large. The correlations between the quality of teachers’ assignment tasks and student work were strong and significant at both grade levels. Where teachers set more intellectually demanding tasks, students were more likely to generate work or artefacts judged to be of higher quality. The findings suggest that teacher professional development in authentic intellectual assessment task design can contribute to the improvement of student learning and performance. It is argued that this will be a key requisite of educational systems like Singapore that are seeking to expand pedagogy and student outcomes beyond a focus on factual and rote knowledge.

In search of a hidden long-term isolated sub-chondritic 142Nd/144Nd reservoir in the deep mantle : implications for the Nd isotope systematics of the Earth

Here we search for evidence of the existence of a sub-chondritic 142Nd/144Nd reservoir that balances the Nd isotope chemistry of the Earth relative to chondrites. If present, it may reside in the source region of deeply sourced mantle plume material. We suggest that lavas from Hawai’i with coupled elevations in 186Os/188Os and 187Os/188Os, from Iceland that represent mixing of upper mantle and lower mantle components, and from Gough with sub-chondritic 143Nd/144Nd and high 207Pb/206Pb, are favorable samples that could reflect mantle sources that have interacted with an Early-Enriched Reservoir (EER) with sub-chondritic 142Nd/144Nd. High-precision Nd isotope analyses of basalts from Hawai’i, Iceland and Gough demonstrate no discernable 142Nd/144Nd deviation from terrestrial standards. These data are consistent with previous high-precision Nd isotope analysis of recent mantle-derived samples and demonstrate that no mantle-derived material to date provides evidence for the existence of an EER in the mantle. We then evaluate mass balance in the Earth with respect to both 142Nd/144Nd and 143Nd/144Nd. The Nd isotope systematics of EERs are modeled for different sizes and timing of formation relative to ε143Nd estimates of the reservoirs in the μ142Nd = 0 Earth, where μ142Nd is ((measured 142Nd/144Nd/terrestrial standard 142Nd/144Nd)−1 * 10−6) and the μ142Nd = 0 Earth is the proportion of the silicate Earth with 142Nd/144Nd indistinguishable from the terrestrial standard. The models indicate that it is not possible to balance the Earth with respect to both 142Nd/144Nd and 143Nd/144Nd unless the μ142Nd = 0 Earth has a ε143Nd within error of the present-day Depleted Mid-ocean ridge basalt Mantle source (DMM). The 4567 Myr age 142Nd–143Nd isochron for the Earth intersects μ142Nd = 0 at ε143Nd of +8 ± 2 providing a minimum ε143Nd for the μ142Nd = 0 Earth. The high ε143Nd of the μ142Nd = 0 Earth is confirmed by the Nd isotope systematics of Archean mantle-derived rocks that consistently have positive ε143Nd. If the EER formed early after solar system formation (0–70 Ma) continental crust and DMM can be complementary reservoirs with respect to Nd isotopes, with no requirement for significant additional reservoirs. If the EER formed after 70 Ma then the μ142Nd = 0 Earth must have a bulk ε143Nd more radiogenic than DMM and additional high ε143Nd material is required to balance the Nd isotope systematics of the Earth.

Influence of spherical intraocular lens implantation and conventional laser in situ keratomileusis on peripheral ocular aberrations

Aim: To measure the influence of spherical intraocular lens implantation and conventional myopic laser in situ keratomileusis on peripheral ocular aberrations. Setting: Visual & Ophthalmic Optics Laboratory, School of Optometry & Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia. Methods: Peripheral aberrations were measured using a modified commercial Hartmann-Shack aberrometer across 42° x 32° of the central visual field in 6 subjects after spherical intraocular lens (IOL) implantation and in 6 subjects after conventional laser in situ keratomileusis (LASIK) for myopia. The results were compared with those of age matched emmetropic and myopic control groups. Results: The IOL group showed a greater rate of quadratic change of spherical equivalent refraction across the visual field, higher spherical aberration, and greater rates of change of higher-order root-mean-square aberrations and total root-mean-square aberrations across the visual field than its emmetropic control group. However, coma trends were similar for the two groups. The LASIK group had a greater rate of quadratic change of spherical equivalent refraction across the visual field, higher spherical aberration, the opposite trend in coma across the field, and greater higher-order root-mean-square aberrations and total root-mean-square aberrations than its myopic control group. Conclusion: Spherical IOL implantation and conventional myopia LASIK increase ocular peripheral aberrations. They cause considerable increase in spherical aberration across the visual field. LASIK reverses the sign of the rate of change in coma across the field relative to that of the other groups. Keywords: refractive surgery, LASIK, IOL implantation, aberrations, peripheral aberrations

Zinc supplementation at conventional doses does not improve the disturbance of taste perception in hemodialysis patients

Objective: To determine the effect of zinc supplementation on taste perception in a group of hemodialysis patients. Design and Setting: Double-blind randomized placebo-controlled study in a teaching hospital dialysis unit. Patients: Fifteen stable hemodialysis patients randomized to placebo (6 male, 2 female; median age, 67; range, 30 to 72 years) or treatment (5 male, 2 female; median age, 60; range, 31 to 76 years). Intervention: Treatment group received zinc sulfate 220 mg per day for 6 weeks, and the placebo group received an apparently identical dummy pill. Main Outcome Measures: Taste scores by visual analogue scales, normalized protein catabolic rate and plasma, whole blood and red cell zinc levels. Results: At baseline, sweet and salt tastes were identified correctly by both groups. Sour was often confused with salt. Sour solutions of different concentrations were not distinguishable. Taste scores were not different after 6 weeks for either group. There was no significant increment in zinc levels or normalized protein catabolic rate for either group. Conclusion: We found a disturbance of taste perception in hemodialysis patients, particularly for the sour modality, which was not corrected by this regimen of zinc supplementation. These results cast doubts on the conclusions of earlier studies that indicated an improvement in taste after zinc supplementation.