Geoestatística aplicada à acumulação da precipitação pluviométrica com radar meteorológico

Pós-graduação em Agronomia (Energia na Agricultura) - FCA

Arctic Report Card 2007: Tracking Recent Environmental Changes

Collectively, the observations indicate that the overall warming of the Arctic system continued in 2007. There are some elements that are stabilizing or returning to climatological norms. These mixed tendencies illustrate the sensitivity and complexity of the Arctic System. Atmosphere: Hot spot shifts toward Europe Ocean: North Pole Temperatures at depth returning to 1990s values Sea Ice: Summer extent at record minimum Greenland: Recent warm temperatures associated with net ice loss Biology: increasing tundra shrub cover and variable treeline advance; up to 80% declines in some caribou herds while goose populations double Land: Increase in permafrost temperatures The Arctic Report Card 2007 is introduced as a means of presenting clear, reliable and concise information on recent observations of environmental conditions in the Arctic, relative to historical time series records. It provides a method of updating and expanding the content of the State of the Arctic Report, published in fall 2006, to reflect current conditions. Material presented in the Report Card is prepared by an international team of scientists and is peer-reviewed by topical experts nominated by the US Polar Research Board. The audience for the Arctic Report Card is wide, including scientists, students, teachers, decision makers and the general public interested in Arctic environment and science. The web-based format will facilitate future timely updates of the content.

Elimination of All-Optical Cycles in Wavelength-Routed Optical Networks

A transparent (wide-area) wavelength-routed optical network may be constructed by using wavelength cross-connect switches connected together by fiber to form an arbitrary mesh structure. The network is accessed through electronic stations that are attached to some of these cross-connects. These wavelength cross-connect switches have the property that they may configure themselves into unspecified states. Each input port of a switch is always connected to some output port of the switch whether or not such a connection is required for the purpose of information transfer. Due to the presence of these unspecified states, there exists the possibility of setting up unintended alloptical cycles in the network (viz., a loop with no terminating electronics in it). If such a cycle contains amplifiers [e.g., Erbium- Doped Fiber Amplifiers (EDFA’s)], there exists the possibility that the net loop gain is greater than the net loop loss. The amplified spontaneous emission (ASE) noise from amplifiers can build up in such a feedback loop to saturate the amplifiers and result in oscillations of the ASE noise in the loop. Such all-optical cycles as defined above (and hereafter referred to as “white” cycles) must be eliminated from an optical network in order for the network to perform any useful operation. Furthermore, for the realistic case in which the wavelength cross-connects result in signal crosstalk, there is a possibility of having closed cycles with oscillating crosstalk signals. We examine algorithms that set up new transparent optical connections upon request while avoiding the creation of such cycles in the network. These algorithms attempt to find a route for a connection and then (in a post-processing fashion) configure switches such that white cycles that might get created would automatically get eliminated. In addition, our call-set-up algorithms can avoid the possibility of crosstalk cycles.

Plant frequency and cover abundance at three sites on Disko Island in 1967/1970 and 2009

We report on a revisit in 2009 to sites where vegetation was recorded in 1967 and 1970 on Disko Island, West Greenland. Re-sampling of the same clones of the grass Phleum alpinum after 39 years showed complete stability in biometrics but dramatic earlier onset of various phenological stages that were not related to changes in population density. In a fell-field community, there was a net species loss, but in a herb-slope community, species losses balanced those that were gained. The type of species establishing and increasing in frequency and/or cover abundance at the fell-field site, particularly prostrate dwarf shrubs, indicates a possible start of a shift towards a heath, rather than a fell-field community. At the herb-slope site, those species that established or increased markedly in frequency and/or cover abundance indicate a change to drier conditions. This is confirmed both by the decrease in abundance of Alchemilla glomerulans and Epilobium hornemanii, and the drying of a nearby pond. The causes of these changes are unknown, although mean annual temperature has risen since 1984.

(Table 1) Accumulation and ice discharge of West Antarctic glaciers draining into the Amundsen Sea between 1974 and 2007

The Advanced Land Observation System (ALOS) Phased-Array Synthetic-Aperture Radar (PALSAR) is an L-band frequency (1.27 GHz) radar capable of continental-scale interferometric observations of ice sheet motion. Here, we show that PALSAR data yield excellent measurements of ice motion compared to C-band (5.6 GHz) radar data because of greater temporal coherence over snow and firn. We compare PALSAR velocities from year 2006 in Pine Island Bay, West Antarctica with those spanning years 1974 to 2007. Between 1996 and 2007, Pine Island Glacier sped up 42% and ungrounded over most of its ice plain. Smith Glacier accelerated 83% and ungrounded as well. Their largest speed up are recorded in 2007. Thwaites Glacier is not accelerating but widening with time and its eastern ice shelf doubled its speed. Total ice discharge from these glaciers increased 30% in 12 yr and the net mass loss increased 170% from 39 ± 15 Gt/yr to 105 ± 27 Gt/yr. Longer-term velocity changes suggest only a moderate loss in the 1970s. As the glaciers unground into the deeper, smoother beds inland, the mass loss from this region will grow considerably larger in years to come.

Model results of sensitivity experiments for marine nitrogen cycle in four NetCDF files

The marine nitrogen (N) inventory is thought to be stabilized by negative feedback mechanisms that reduce N inventory excursions relative to the more slowly overturning phosphorus inventory. Using a global biogeochemical ocean circulation model we show that negative feedbacks stabilizing the N inventory cannot persist if a close spatial association of N2 fixation and denitrification occurs. In our idealized model experiments, nitrogen deficient waters, generated by denitrification, stimulate local N2 fixation activity. But, because of stoichiometric constraints, the denitrification of newly fixed nitrogen leads to a net loss of N. This can enhance the N deficit, thereby triggering additional fixation in a vicious cycle, ultimately leading to a runaway N loss. To break this vicious cycle, and allow for stabilizing negative feedbacks to occur, inputs of new N need to be spatially decoupled from denitrification. Our idealized model experiments suggest that factors such as iron limitation or dissolved organic matter cycling can promote such decoupling and allow for negative feedbacks that stabilize the N inventory. Conversely, close spatial co-location of N2 fixation and denitrification could lead to net N loss.

10Be/9Be-based chronostratigraphy of ODP Hole 181-1121B from the Southwest Pacific Ocean

A 10Be/9Be-based chronostratigraphy has been determined for ODP 181, Site 1121 sediment core, recovered from the foot of the Campbell Plateau, Southwest Pacific Ocean. This core was drilled through the Campbell 'skin drift' in ca. 4500 m water depth on the mid-western margin of the extensive Campbell Nodule Field, beneath the flow of the major cold-water Deep Western Boundary Current (DWBC). In the absence of detailed biostratigraphy, beryllium isotopes have provided essential time information to allow palaeo-environmental interpretation to be undertaken on the upper 7 m of the core. Measured 10Be/9Be ratios of sediment, and of ferromanganese nodules entrapped in the sediment, decrease systematically with depth in the core, in accordance with radioactive decay. However, the 10Be/9Be data diverge from ca. 3 m below the seafloor (mbsf) to the top of the core, giving rise to several possible geochronological models. The preferred model assumes that the measured 10Be/9Be ratios of the nodule rims reflect initial 10Be/9Be ratios equivalent to contemporary seawater, and that these can be used to derive the true age of the sediment where the nodules occur. The nodule rim ages can be then used to interpret the sediment 10Be/9Be data, which indicate an overall age to ca. 7 mbsf of ca. 17.5 Ma. The derived chronology is consistent with diatom biostratigraphy, which indicates an age of 2.2-3.6 Ma at 1 mbsf. Calculated sedimentation rates range from 8 to 95 cm m.y.**-1, with an overall rate to 7 mbsf of ca. 39 cm m.y.**-1. The lowest rates generally coincide with the occurrence of entrapped nodules, and reflect periods of increased bottom current flow causing net sediment loss. Growth rates of individual nodules decrease towards the top of the sediment core, similar to the observed decrease in growth rate from core to rim of seafloor nodules from the Campbell Nodule Field. This may be related to an overall increase in the vigour of the DWBC from ca. 10 Ma to the present.

Satisfaction as a predictor of future performance:a replication

Since the introduction of the Net Promoter concept there has been a vivid and ongoing debate among academics and practitioners about the performance of the Net Promoter Score (NPS) in comparison to other customer metrics, such as customer satisfaction, to predict company growth rates. We report results from a study using data from customers and firms in the Netherlands on the relationship between different satisfaction and loyalty metrics as well as the NPS with sales revenue growth, gross margins and net operating cash flows. We find that all metrics perform equally well in predicting current gross margins and current sales revenue growth and equally poor for predicting future sales growth and gross margins as well as current and future net cash flows. The NPS is neither superior nor inferior to other metrics. Taken together, our study suggests that the predictive capability of customer metrics, such as NPS, for future company growth rates is limited. © 2013 Elsevier B.V.

Quantifying the responses of calcareous periphyton crusts to rehydration: A microcosm study (Florida Everglades)

We examined the high-resolution temporal dynamics of recovery of dried periphyton crusts following rapid rehydration in a phosphorus (P)-limited short hydroperiod Everglades wetland. Crusts were incubated in a greenhouse in tubs containing water with no P or exogenous algae to mimic the onset of the wet season in the natural marsh when heavy downpours containing very low P flood the dry wetland. Algal and bacterial productivity were tracked for 20 days and related to compositional changes and P dynamics in the water. A portion of original crusts was also used to determine how much TP could be released if no biotic recovery occurred. Composition was volumetrically dominated by cyanobacteria (90%) containing morphotypes typical of xeric environments. Algal and bacterial production recovered immediately upon rehydration but there was a net TP loss from the crusts to the water in the first 2 days. By day 5, however, cyanobacteria and other bacteria had re-absorbed 90% of the released P. Then, water TP concentration reached a steady-state level of 6.6 μg TP/L despite water TP concentration through evaporation. Phosphomonoesterase (PMEase) activity was very high during the first day after rehydration due to the release of a large pre-existing pool of extracellular PMEase. Thereafter, the activity dropped by 90% and increased gradually from this low level. The fast recovery of desiccated crusts upon rehydration required no exogenous P or allogenous algae/bacteria additions and periphyton largely controlled P concentration in the water.

A Flow-Through Analysis of the US Lodging Industry During the Great Recession

Purpose – The objective of this exploratory study is to investigate the “flow-through” or relationship between top-line measures of hotel operating performance (occupancy, average daily rate and revenue per available room) and bottom-line measures of profitability (gross operating profit and net operating income), before and during the recent great recession. Design/methodology/approach – This study uses data provided by PKF Hospitality Research for the period from 2007-2009. A total of 714 hotels were analyzed and various top-line and bottom-line profitability changes were computed using both absolute levels and percentages. Multiple regression analysis was used to examine the relationship between top and bottom line measures, and to derive flow-through ratios. Findings – The results show that average daily rate (ADR) and occupancy are significantly and positively related to gross operating profit per available room (GOPPAR) and net operating income per available room (NOIPAR). The evidence indicates that ADR, rather than occupancy, appears to be the stronger predictor and better measure of RevPAR growth and bottom-line profitability. The correlations and explained variances are also higher than those reported in prior research. Flow-through ratios range between 1.83 and 1.91 for NOIPAR, and between 1.55 and 1.65 for GOPPAR, across all chain-scales. Research limitations/implications – Limitations of this study include the limited number of years in the study period, limited number of hotels in a competitive set, and self-selection of hotels by the researchers. Practical implications – While ADR and occupancy work in combination to drive profitability, the authors' study shows that ADR is the stronger predictor of profitability. Hotel managers can use flow-through ratios to make financial forecasts, or use them as inputs in valuation models, to forecast future profitability. Originality/value – This paper extends prior research on the relationship between top-line measures and bottom-line profitability and serves to inform lodging owners, operators and asset managers about flow-through ratios, and how these ratios impact hotel profitability.

Characterization of a zeolite-templated carbon by electrochemical quartz crystal microbalance and in situ Raman spectroscopy

Electrochemical quartz crystal microbalance was used to monitor the mass changes during the electrochemical characterization of a zeolite-templated carbon (ZTC) in 1 M H2SO4 medium. Under electrochemical oxidation conditions, a high anodic current and a net mass increase were recorded, resulting in the increase of the specific capacitance owing to the contribution of the pseudocapacitance, mainly derived from the hydroquinone–quinone redox couple. Under more severe electrochemical conditions, a net mass loss was observed, revealing that electrochemical gasification took place. Surface chemistry, before and after the electrochemical treatments, was analyzed through temperature programmed desorption experiments. Furthermore, in situ Raman spectroscopy was used to further characterize the structural changes produced in ZTC under the electrochemical conditions applied, supporting that high potential values produce the electrochemical oxidation and degradation of the carbon material.

Results of energy-loss measurements on passenger car tires operating in the free-rolling and braking/traction modes. Final report.

Transportation Systems Center, Cambridge, Mass.

Influence of film cooling hole angles and geometries on aerodynamic loss and net heat flux reduction

Turbine design engineers have to ensure that film cooling can provide sufficient protection to turbine blades from the hot mainstream gas, while keeping the losses low. Film cooling hole design parameters include inclination angle (α), compound angle (β ), hole inlet geometry and hole exit geometry. The influence of these parameters on aerodynamic loss and net heat flux reduction is investigated, with loss being the primary focus. Low-speed flat plate experiments have been conducted at momentum flux ratios of IR = 0.16, 0.64 and 1.44. The film cooling aerodynamic mixing loss, generated by the mixing of mainstream and coolant, can be quantified using a three-dimensional analytical model that has been previously reported by the authors. The model suggests that for the same flow conditions, the aerodynamic mixing loss is the same for holes with different α and β but with the same angle between the mainstream and coolant flow directions (angle κ). This relationship is assessed through experiments by testing two sets of cylindrical holes with different α and β : one set with κ = 35°, another set with κ = 60°. The data confirm the stated relationship between α, β, κ and the aerodynamic mixing loss. The results show that the designer should minimise κ to obtain the lowest loss, but maximise β to achieve the best heat transfer performance. A suggestion on improving the loss model is also given. Five different hole geometries (α =35.0°, β =0°) were also tested: cylindrical hole, trenched hole, fan-shaped hole, D-Fan and SD-Fan. The D-Fan and the SD-Fan have similar hole exits to the fan-shaped hole but their hole inlets are laterally expanded. The external mixing loss and the loss generated inside the hole are compared. It was found that the D-Fan and the SD-Fan have the lowest loss. This is attributed to their laterally expanded hole inlets, which lead to significant reduction in the loss generated inside the holes. As a result, the loss of these geometries is ≈ 50 % of the loss of the fan-shaped hole at IR = 0.64 and 1.44. Copyright © 2011 by ASME.

An experimental study of loss sources in a fan operating with continuous inlet stagnation pressure distortion

The viability of Boundary Layer Ingesting (BLI) engines for future aircraft propulsion is dependent on the ability to design robust, efficient engine fan systems for operation with continuously distorted inlet flow. A key step in this process is to develop an understanding of the specific mechanisms by which an inlet distortion affects the performance of a fan stage. In this paper, detailed full-annulus experimental measurements of the flow field within a low-speed fan stage operating with a continuous 60-degree inlet stagnation pressure distortion are presented. These results are used to describe the three-dimensional fluid mechanics governing the interaction between the fan and the distortion and to make a quantitative assessment of the impact on loss generation within the fan. A 5.3 percentage point reduction in stage total-to-total efficiency is observed as a result of the inlet distortion. The reduction in performance is shown to be dominated by increased loss generation in the rotor due to off-design incidence values at its leading edge, an effect which occurs throughout the annulus despite the localised nature of the inlet distortion. Increased loss generation in the stator row is also observed due to flow separations that are shown to be caused by whirl angle distortion at rotor exit. By addressing these losses, it should be possible to achieve improved efficiency in BLI fan systems. Copyright © 2012 by ASME.