Landslide susceptibility mapping in the downstream region of Sharavathi river basin, Central Western Ghats

Landslides are hazards encountered during monsoon in undulating terrains of Western Ghats causing geomorphic make over of earth surface resulting in significant damages to life and property. An attempt is made in this paper to identify landslides susceptibility regions in the Sharavathi river basin downstream using frequency ratio method based on the field investigations during July- November 2007. In this regard, base layers of spatial data such as topography, land cover, geology and soil were considered. This is supplemented with the field investigations of landslides. Factors that influence landslide were extracted from the spatial database. The probabilistic model -frequency ratio is computed based on these factors. Landslide susceptibility indices were computed and grouped into five classes. Validation of LHS, showed an accuracy of 89% as 25 of the 28 regions tallied with the field condition of highly vulnerable landslide regions. The landslide susceptible map generated for the downstream would be useful for the district officials to implement appropriate mitigation measures to reduce hazards.

Emissions from India’s transport sector: Statewise synthesis

A decentralized emission inventories are prepared for road transport sector of India in order to design and implement suitable technologies and policies for appropriate mitigation measures. Globalization and liberalization policies of the government in 90's have increased the number of road vehicles nearly 92.6% from 1980–1981 to 2003–2004. These vehicles mainly consume non-renewable fossil fuels, and are a major contributor of green house gases, particularly CO2 emission. This paper focuses on the statewise road transport emissions (CO2, CH4, CO, NOx, N2O, SO2, PM and HC), using region specific mass emission factors for each type of vehicles. The country level emissions (CO2, CH4, CO, NOx, N2O, SO2 and NMVOC) are calculated for railways, shipping and airway, based on fuel types. In India, transport sector emits an estimated 258.10 Tg of CO2, of which 94.5% was contributed by road transport (2003–2004). Among all the states and Union Territories, Maharashtra's contribution is the largest, 28.85 Tg (11.8%) of CO2, followed by Tamil Nadu 26.41 Tg (10.8%), Gujarat 23.31 Tg (9.6%), Uttar Pradesh 17.42 Tg (7.1%), Rajasthan 15.17 Tg (6.22%) and, Karnataka 15.09 Tg (6.19%). These six states account for 51.8% of the CO2 emissions from road transport.

Support for Integrated Ecosystem Assessments of NOAA’s National Estuarine Research Reserves System (NERRS), Volume II: Assessment of Ecological Condition and Stressor Impacts in Subtidal Waters of the North Carolina NERRS

A study was conducted to assess the status of ecological condition and potential human-health risks in subtidal estuarine waters throughout the North Carolina National Estuarine Research Reserve System (NERRS) (Currituck Sound, Rachel Carson, Masonboro Island, and Zeke’s Island). Field work was conducted in September 2006 and incorporated multiple indicators of ecosystem condition including measures of water quality (dissolved oxygen, salinity, temperature, pH, nutrients and chlorophyll, suspended solids), sediment quality (granulometry, organic matter content, chemical contaminant concentrations), biological condition (diversity and abundances of benthic fauna, fish contaminant levels and pathologies), and human dimensions (fish-tissue contaminant levels relative to human-health consumption limits, various aesthetic properties). A probabilistic sampling design permitted statistical estimation of the spatial extent of degraded versus non-degraded condition across these estuaries relative to specified threshold levels of the various indicators (where possible). With some exceptions, the status of these reserves appeared to be in relatively good to fair ecological condition overall, with the majority of the area (about 54%) having various water quality, sediment quality, and biological (benthic) condition indicators rated in the healthy to intermediate range of corresponding guideline thresholds. Only three stations, representing 10.5% of the area, had one or more of these indicators rated as poor/degraded in all three categories. While such a conclusion is encouraging from a coastal management perspective, it should be viewed with some caution. For example, although co-occurrences of adverse biological and abiotic environmental conditions were limited, at least one indicator of ecological condition rated in the poor/degraded range was observed over a broader area (35.5%) represented by 11 of the 30 stations sampled. In addition, the fish-tissue contaminant data were not included in these overall spatial estimates; however, the majority of samples (77% of fish that were analyzed, from 79%, of stations where fish were caught) contained inorganic arsenic above the consumption limits for human cancer risks, though most likely derived from natural sources. Similarly, aesthetic indicators are not reflected in these spatial estimates of ecological condition, though there was evidence of noxious odors in sediments at many of the stations. Such symptoms reflect a growing realization that North Carolina estuaries are under multiple pressures from a variety of natural and human influences. These data also suggest that, while the current status of overall ecological condition appears to be good to fair, long-term monitoring is warranted to track potential changes in the future. This study establishes an important baseline of overall ecological condition within NC NERRS that can be used to evaluate any such future changes and to trigger appropriate management actions in this rapidly evolving coastal environment. (PDF contains 76 pages)

Future of earthquake early warning : quantifying uncertainty and making fast automated decisions for applications

Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems have been rapidly developing over the past decade. Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has an EEW system that was operating during the 2011 M9 Tohoku earthquake in Japan, and this increased the awareness of EEW systems around the world. While longer-time earthquake prediction still faces many challenges to be practical, the availability of shorter-time EEW opens up a new door for earthquake loss mitigation. After an earthquake fault begins rupturing, an EEW system utilizes the first few seconds of recorded seismic waveform data to quickly predict the hypocenter location, magnitude, origin time and the expected shaking intensity level around the region. This early warning information is broadcast to different sites before the strong shaking arrives. The warning lead time of such a system is short, typically a few seconds to a minute or so, and the information is uncertain. These factors limit human intervention to activate mitigation actions and this must be addressed for engineering applications of EEW. This study applies a Bayesian probabilistic approach along with machine learning techniques and decision theories from economics to improve different aspects of EEW operation, including extending it to engineering applications.

Existing EEW systems are often based on a deterministic approach. Often, they assume that only a single event occurs within a short period of time, which led to many false alarms after the Tohoku earthquake in Japan. This study develops a probability-based EEW algorithm based on an existing deterministic model to extend the EEW system to the case of concurrent events, which are often observed during the aftershock sequence after a large earthquake.

To overcome the challenge of uncertain information and short lead time of EEW, this study also develops an earthquake probability-based automated decision-making (ePAD) framework to make robust decision for EEW mitigation applications. A cost-benefit model that can capture the uncertainties in EEW information and the decision process is used. This approach is called the Performance-Based Earthquake Early Warning, which is based on the PEER Performance-Based Earthquake Engineering method. Use of surrogate models is suggested to improve computational efficiency. Also, new models are proposed to add the influence of lead time into the cost-benefit analysis. For example, a value of information model is used to quantify the potential value of delaying the activation of a mitigation action for a possible reduction of the uncertainty of EEW information in the next update. Two practical examples, evacuation alert and elevator control, are studied to illustrate the ePAD framework. Potential advanced EEW applications, such as the case of multiple-action decisions and the synergy of EEW and structural health monitoring systems, are also discussed.

Construção e automação de um mapa de vulnerabilidade de solos ao 137Cs.

O comportamento dos radionuclídeos no solo pode variar de acordo com sua interação com os elementos que compões este solo. O fator de transferência (FT) é o parâmetro que descreve a interação que ocorre entre o solo e as plantas para um determinado radionuclídeo, observando que este solo tem propriedades químicas e físicas que favorecem seu crescimento. Através de ferramentas computacionais e baseado em solos extremos, com o FT conhecidos na literatura e nos parâmetros de solo que interferem no comportamento de 137Cs (como K trocável, capacidade de troca catiônica e pH), este trabalho visa aplicar técnicas de geoprocessamento para a criação de um mapa de vulnerabilidade de solos ao 137Cs e sua automação. Este estudo mostra que o uso de técnicas de geoprocessamento visando o mapeamento da vulnerabilidade ao 137Cs pode ser uma ferramenta importante para o planejamento de ações de emergência em áreas rurais, a identificação de áreas risco à contaminação radioativa, na escolha de ações corretivas adequadas, bem como no suporte a criação de políticas públicas.

Impacts of the Oceans on Climate Change

The oceans play a key role in climate regulation especially in part buffering (neutralising) the effects of increasing levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and rising global temperatures. This chapter examines how the regulatory processes performed by the oceans alter as a response to climate change and assesses the extent to which positive feedbacks from the ocean may exacerbate climate change. There is clear evidence for rapid change in the oceans. As the main heat store for the world there has been an accelerating change in sea temperatures over the last few decades, which has contributed to rising sea‐level. The oceans are also the main store of carbon dioxide (CO2), and are estimated to have taken up ∼40% of anthropogenic-sourced CO2 from the atmosphere since the beginning of the industrial revolution. A proportion of the carbon uptake is exported via the four ocean ‘carbon pumps’ (Solubility, Biological, Continental Shelf and Carbonate Counter) to the deep ocean reservoir. Increases in sea temperature and changing planktonic systems and ocean currents may lead to a reduction in the uptake of CO2 by the ocean; some evidence suggests a suppression of parts of the marine carbon sink is already underway. While the oceans have buffered climate change through the uptake of CO2 produced by fossil fuel burning this has already had an impact on ocean chemistry through ocean acidification and will continue to do so. Feedbacks to climate change from acidification may result from expected impacts on marine organisms (especially corals and calcareous plankton), ecosystems and biogeochemical cycles. The polar regions of the world are showing the most rapid responses to climate change. As a result of a strong ice–ocean influence, small changes in temperature, salinity and ice cover may trigger large and sudden changes in regional climate with potential downstream feedbacks to the climate of the rest of the world. A warming Arctic Ocean may lead to further releases of the potent greenhouse gas methane from hydrates and permafrost. The Southern Ocean plays a critical role in driving, modifying and regulating global climate change via the carbon cycle and through its impact on adjacent Antarctica. The Antarctic Peninsula has shown some of the most rapid rises in atmospheric and oceanic temperature in the world, with an associated retreat of the majority of glaciers. Parts of the West Antarctic ice sheet are deflating rapidly, very likely due to a change in the flux of oceanic heat to the undersides of the floating ice shelves. The final section on modelling feedbacks from the ocean to climate change identifies limitations and priorities for model development and associated observations. Considering the importance of the oceans to climate change and our limited understanding of climate-related ocean processes, our ability to measure the changes that are taking place are conspicuously inadequate. The chapter highlights the need for a comprehensive, adequately funded and globally extensive ocean observing system to be implemented and sustained as a high priority. Unless feedbacks from the oceans to climate change are adequately included in climate change models, it is possible that the mitigation actions needed to stabilise CO2 and limit temperature rise over the next century will be underestimated.

Rapid and Proactive Approach on Exploration of Database Vulnerabilities

In today's complicated computing environment, managing data has become the primary concern of all industries. Information security is the greatest challenge and it has become essential to secure the enterprise system resources like the databases and the operating systems from the attacks of the unknown outsiders. Our approach plays a major role in detecting and managing vulnerabilities in complex computing systems. It allows enterprises to assess two primary tiers through a single interface as a vulnerability scanner tool which provides a secure system which is also compatible with the security compliance of the industry. It provides an overall view of the vulnerabilities in the database, by automatically scanning them with minimum overhead. It gives a detailed view of the risks involved and their corresponding ratings. Based on these priorities, an appropriate mitigation process can be implemented to ensure a secured system. The results show that our approach could effectively optimize the time and cost involved when compared to the existing systems

Abatement of mercury pollution in the small-scale gold mining industry: Restructuring the policy and research agendas

This paper critiques contemporary research and policy approaches taken toward the analysis and abatement of mercury pollution in the small-scale gold mining sector. Unmonitored releases of mercury from gold amalgamation have caused considerable environmental contamination and human health complications in rural reaches of sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America and Asia. Whilst these problems have caught the attention of the scientific community over the past 15-20 years, the research that has since been undertaken has failed to identify appropriate mitigation measures, and has done little to advance understanding of why contamination persists. Moreover, the strategies used to educate operators about the impacts of acute mercury exposure, and the technologies implemented to prevent farther pollution, have been marginally effective at best. The mercury pollution problem will not be resolved until governments and donor agencies commit to carrying out research aimed at improving understanding of the dynamics of small scale gold mining communities. Acquisition of this knowledge is the key to designing and implementing appropriate support and abatement measures. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Climate change impacts on global food security

Climate change could potentially interrupt progress toward a world without hunger. A robust and coherent global pattern is discernible of the impacts of climate change on crop productivity that could have consequences for food availability. The stability of whole food systems may be at risk under climate change because of short-term variability in supply. However, the potential impact is less clear at regional scales, but it is likely that climate variability and change will exacerbate food insecurity in areas currently vulnerable to hunger and undernutrition. Likewise, it can be anticipated that food access and utilization will be affected indirectly via collateral effects on household and individual incomes, and food utilization could be impaired by loss of access to drinking water and damage to health. The evidence supports the need for considerable investment in adaptation and mitigation actions toward a “climate-smart food system” that is more resilient to climate change influences on food security.

Bounding the role of black carbon in the climate system: a scientific assessment

Black carbon aerosol plays a unique and important role in Earth’s climate system. Black carbon is a type of carbonaceous material with a unique combination of physical properties. This assessment provides an evaluation of black-carbon climate forcing that is comprehensive in its inclusion of all known and relevant processes and that is quantitative in providing best estimates and uncertainties of the main forcing terms: direct solar absorption; influence on liquid, mixed phase, and ice clouds; and deposition on snow and ice. These effects are calculated with climate models, but when possible, they are evaluated with both microphysical measurements and field observations. Predominant sources are combustion related, namely, fossil fuels for transportation, solid fuels for industrial and residential uses, and open burning of biomass. Total global emissions of black carbon using bottom-up inventory methods are 7500 Gg yr�-1 in the year 2000 with an uncertainty range of 2000 to 29000. However, global atmospheric absorption attributable to black carbon is too low in many models and should be increased by a factor of almost 3. After this scaling, the best estimate for the industrial-era (1750 to 2005) direct radiative forcing of atmospheric black carbon is +0.71 W m�-2 with 90% uncertainty bounds of (+0.08, +1.27)Wm�-2. Total direct forcing by all black carbon sources, without subtracting the preindustrial background, is estimated as +0.88 (+0.17, +1.48) W m�-2. Direct radiative forcing alone does not capture important rapid adjustment mechanisms. A framework is described and used for quantifying climate forcings, including rapid adjustments. The best estimate of industrial-era climate forcing of black carbon through all forcing mechanisms, including clouds and cryosphere forcing, is +1.1 W m�-2 with 90% uncertainty bounds of +0.17 to +2.1 W m�-2. Thus, there is a very high probability that black carbon emissions, independent of co-emitted species, have a positive forcing and warm the climate. We estimate that black carbon, with a total climate forcing of +1.1 W m�-2, is the second most important human emission in terms of its climate forcing in the present-day atmosphere; only carbon dioxide is estimated to have a greater forcing. Sources that emit black carbon also emit other short-lived species that may either cool or warm climate. Climate forcings from co-emitted species are estimated and used in the framework described herein. When the principal effects of short-lived co-emissions, including cooling agents such as sulfur dioxide, are included in net forcing, energy-related sources (fossil fuel and biofuel) have an industrial-era climate forcing of +0.22 (�-0.50 to +1.08) W m-�2 during the first year after emission. For a few of these sources, such as diesel engines and possibly residential biofuels, warming is strong enough that eliminating all short-lived emissions from these sources would reduce net climate forcing (i.e., produce cooling). When open burning emissions, which emit high levels of organic matter, are included in the total, the best estimate of net industrial-era climate forcing by all short-lived species from black-carbon-rich sources becomes slightly negative (�-0.06 W m�-2 with 90% uncertainty bounds of �-1.45 to +1.29 W m�-2). The uncertainties in net climate forcing from black-carbon-rich sources are substantial, largely due to lack of knowledge about cloud interactions with both black carbon and co-emitted organic carbon. In prioritizing potential black-carbon mitigation actions, non-science factors, such as technical feasibility, costs, policy design, and implementation feasibility play important roles. The major sources of black carbon are presently in different stages with regard to the feasibility for near-term mitigation. This assessment, by evaluating the large number and complexity of the associated physical and radiative processes in black-carbon climate forcing, sets a baseline from which to improve future climate forcing estimates.

Characterization of heat waves affecting mortality rates of broilers between 29 days and market age

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Climate Change and Development in Latin America and the Caribbean. Overview 2009

Includes bibliography

A expressão da criatividade na dança

Pós-graduação em Ciências da Motricidade - IBRC

Gestão da manutenção de transformadores de distribuição visando à qualidade no fornecimento de energia elétrica

Este trabalho tem como objetivo a gestão eficiente da manutenção em transformadores, que se encontram operando na rede elétrica de distribuição, permitindo ações efetivas que preservem a qualidade de energia entregue ao consumidor, procurando atender deste modo os critérios estabelecidos pelo PRODIST – Procedimentos de Distribuição de Energia Elétrica no Sistema Elétrico Nacional. O método aplicado para atingir este objetivo é a criação de um sistema de informações, que permita ao gestor da área de manutenção da distribuição de uma rede elétrica, tomar decisões considerando as interrupções ocorridas, o impacto que causaram no valor do FEC - Freqüência Equivalente de Interrupção por Unidade Consumidora e no carregamento dos transformadores. Entende-se que com isso as medidas mitigadoras serão tomadas em tempo hábil, podendo preservar a qualidade do fornecimento.

Impacts of Reproductive Technologies on Beef Production in South America

The majority of beef cow herds in South America are constituted by Bos indicus females, which have particular reproductive features that contribute to reduced reproductive efficiency compared with that of B. taurus cohorts. Hence, several alternatives to enhance reproductive efficiency of B. indicus heifers and cows have been developed to address their inherent reproductive shortcomings. These research-based technologies are being described in detail within this chapter and have already made an impact on South American B. indicus-based production systems. These include the following: (a) hormonal protocols to induce puberty in nulliparous heifers or estrous cyclicity in postpartum cows to maximize their reproductive performance during the subsequent breeding season, (b) hormonal protocols to synchronize estrus and/or ovulation in B. indicus females to exploit their reproductive responses to artificial insemination, and (c) genetic and environmental factors that influence reproductive success in beef herds, including reproductive diseases and excitable temperament of B. indicus females, that have been investigated to support/promote the development of appropriate mitigation technologies.