Simultaneous kinetic-spectrophotometric determination of maltol and ethyl maltol in food samples by using chemometrics

A fast and accurate procedure has been researched and developed for the simultaneous determination of maltol and ethyl maltol, based on their reaction with iron(III) in the presence of o-phenanthroline in sulfuric acid medium. This reaction was the basis for an indirect kinetic spectrophotometric method, which followed the development of the pink ferroin product (λmax = 524 nm). The kinetic data were collected in the 370–900 nm range over 0–30 s. The optimized method indicates that individual analytes followed Beer’s law in the concentration range of 4.0–76.0 mg L−1 for both maltol and ethyl maltol. The LOD values of 1.6 mg L−1 for maltol and 1.4 mg L−1 for ethyl maltol agree well with those obtained by the alternative high performance liquid chromatography with ultraviolet detection (HPLC-UV). Three chemometrics methods, principal component regression (PCR), partial least squares (PLS) and principal component analysis–radial basis function–artificial neural networks (PC–RBF–ANN), were used to resolve the measured data with small kinetic differences between the two analytes as reflected by the development of the pink ferroin product. All three performed satisfactorily in the case of the synthetic verification samples, and in their application for the prediction of the analytes in several food products. The figures of merit for the analytes based on the multivariate models agreed well with those from the alternative HPLC-UV method involving the same samples.

Vitamin D and sun protection : the impact of mixed public health messages in Australia

Exposure of the skin to sunlight can cause skin cancer and is also necessary for cutaneous vitamin D production. Media reports have highlighted the purported health benefits of vitamin D. Our aim was to examine attitudes and behaviours related to sun protection and vitamin D. A cross-sectional study of 2,001 residents in Queensland, Australia aged 20-70 years was undertaken. Information collected included: skin cancer risk factors; perceptions about levels of sun exposure required to maintain vitamin D; belief that sun protection increases risk of vitamin D deficiency; intention, and actual change in sun protection practices for adults and children. Multivariate models examined predictors of attitudinal and behavioural change. One-third (32%) believed a fair-skinned adult, and 31% thought a child required at least 30 minutes per day in summer sun to maintain vitamin D levels. Reductions in sun protection were reported by 21% of adults and 14% of children. Factors associated with belief that sun protection may result in not obtaining enough vitamin D included aged ≥ 60 years (OR=1.35, 95% CI 1.09-1.66) and having skin that tanned easily (OR=1.96, 95% CI 1.38-2.78). Participants from low income households, and those who frequently used sun protective clothing were more likely to have reduced sun protection practices (OR=1.33, 95% CI 1.10-1.73 and OR=1.73, 95% CI 1.36-2.20, respectively). This study provides evidence of reductions in sun protection practices in a population living in a high UV environment. There is an urgent need to re-focus messages regarding sun exposure and for continued sun protection practices.

Expected safety performance of rural signalized intersections in South Korea

Understanding the expected safety performance of rural signalized intersections is critical for (a) identifying high-risk sites where the observed safety performance is substantially worse than the expected safety performance, (b) understanding influential factors associated with crashes, and (c) predicting the future performance of sites and helping plan safety-enhancing activities. These three critical activities are routinely conducted for safety management and planning purposes in jurisdictions throughout the United States and around the world. This paper aims to develop baseline expected safety performance functions of rural signalized intersections in South Korea, which to date have not yet been established or reported in the literature. Data are examined from numerous locations within South Korea for both three-legged and four-legged configurations. The safety effects of a host of operational and geometric variables on the safety performance of these sites are also examined. In addition, supplementary tables and graphs are developed for comparing the baseline safety performance of sites with various geometric and operational features. These graphs identify how various factors are associated with safety. The expected safety prediction tables offer advantages over regression prediction equations by allowing the safety manager to isolate specific features of the intersections and examine their impact on expected safety. The examination of the expected safety performance tables through illustrated examples highlights the need to correct for regression-to-the-mean effects, emphasizes the negative impacts of multicollinearity, shows why multivariate models do not translate well to accident modification factors, and illuminates the need to examine road safety carefully and methodically. Caveats are provided on the use of the safety performance prediction graphs developed in this paper.

Discrimination or Differential Involvement? A Review of the Research Exploring the Impact of Indigenous Status on Sentencing

Existing court data suggest that adult Indigenous offenders are more likely than non-Indigenous defendants to be sentenced to prison but once imprisoned generally receive shorter terms. Using findings from international and Australian multivariate statistical analyses, this paper reviews the three key hypotheses advanced as plausible explanations for these differences: 1) differential involvement, 2) negative discrimination, 3) positive discrimination. Overall, prior research shows strong support for the differential involvement thesis, some support for positive discrimination and little foundation for negative discrimination in the sentencing of Indigenous defendants. Where discrimination is found, we argue that this may be explained by the lack of a more complete set of control variables in researchers’ multivariate models.

A longitudinal study of corporate earnings guidance in Australia’s continuous disclosure environment

Since the introduction of a statutory‐backed continuous disclosure regime (CDR) in 1994, regulatory reforms have significantly increased litigation risk in Australia for failure to disclose material information or for false and misleading disclosure. However, there is almost no empirical research on the impact of the reforms on corporate disclosure behaviour. Motivated by the absence of research and using management earnings forecasts (MEFs) as a disclosure proxy, this study examines (1) why managers issue earnings forecasts, (2) what firm‐specific factors influence MEF characteristics, and (3) how MEF behaviour changes as litigation risk increases. Based on theories in information economics, a theoretical framework for MEF behaviour is formulated which includes antecedent influencing factors related to firms‟ internal and external environments. Applying this framework, hypotheses are developed and tested using multivariate models and a large sample of hand-collected MEFs (7,213) issued by top 500 ASX-listed companies over the 1994 to 2008 period. The results reveal strong support for the hypotheses. First, MEFs are issued to reduce information asymmetry, litigation risk and signal superior performance. Second, firms with better financial performance, smaller earnings changes, and lower operating uncertainty provide better quality MEFs. Third, forecast frequency and quality (accuracy, timeliness and precision) noticeably improve as litigation risk increases. However, managers appear to be still reluctant to disclose earnings forecasts when there are large earnings changes, and an asymmetric treatment of news type continues to prevail (a good news bias). Thus, the findings generally provide support for the effectiveness of the CDR regulatory reforms in improving disclosure behaviour and will be valuable to market participants and corporate regulators in understanding the implications of management forecasting decisions and areas for further improvement.

The Impact of Indigenous status on adult sentencing : a review of the statistical research literature.

The gross overrepresentation of Indigenous peoples in prison populations suggests that sentencing may be a discriminatory process. Using findings from recent (1991–2011) multivariate statistical sentencing analyses from the United States, Canada, and Australia, we review the 3 key hypotheses advanced as plausible explanations for baseline sentencing discrepancies between Indigenous and non-Indigenous adult criminal defendants: (a) differential involvement, (b) negative discrimination, and (c) positive discrimination. Overall, the prior research shows strong support for the differential involvement thesis and some support for the discrimination theses (positive and negative). We argue that where discrimination is found, it may be explained by the lack of a more complete set of control variables in researchers’ multivariate models and/or differing political and social contexts.

Determinants of institutional care at older ages in Finland

Väitöskirjassa selvitettiin ikäihmisten laitoshoitoon siirtymisen todennäköisyyttä ja sen taustoja kansainvälisesti ainutlaatuisen rekisteriaineiston avulla. Selvitettäviä asioita olivat eri sairauksien, sosioekonomisten tekijöiden, puolison olemassaolon ja leskeksi jäämisen yhteys laitoshoitoon siirtymiseen yli 65-vuotiailla suomalaisilla. Tutkimuksessa havaittiin, että dementia, Parkinsonin tauti, aivohalvaus, masennusoireet ja muut mielenterveysongelmat, lonkkamurtuma sekä diabetes lisäsivät ikäihmisten todennäköisyyttä siirtyä laitoshoitoon yli 50 prosentilla, kun muut sairaudet ja sosiodemografiset tekijät oli otettu huomioon. Korkeat tulot vähensivät laitoshoidon todennäköisyyttä, kun taas puutteellinen asuminen (ilman peseytymistiloja tai keskus- tai sähkölämmitystä) sekä erittäin puutteellinen asuminen (ilman lämmintä vettä, vesijohtoa, viemäriä tai vesivessaa) lisäsivät todennäkösyyttä, kun muut sosiodemografiset tekijät, sairaudet ja asuinalue oli huomioitu. Kerrostalon hissittömyys ei ollut yhteydessä laitoshoidon todennäköisyyteen. Todennäköisyys siirtyä laitoshoitoon oli jostain syystä korkeampaa niillä ikäihmisillä, jotka asuivat vuokralla ja matalampaa omakotitalossa asuvilla ja niillä, joilla oli auto. Puolison olemassaolo vähensi ja leskeksi jääminen lisäsi laitoshoidon todennäköisyyttä huomattavasti. Todennäköisyys oli erityisen suuri, yli kolminkertainen, kun puolison kuolemasta oli kulunut enintään kuukausi verrattuna niihin, joiden puoliso oli elossa. Todennäköisyys laski, kun puolison kuolemasta kului aikaa. Miesten ja naisten tulokset olivat samansuuntaisia. Korkeat tulot tai koulutus eivät suojanneet riskiltä joutua laitoshoitoon puolison kuoltua. Puolison kuolema näyttää lisäävän hoidon tarvetta, kun kotona ei ole enää puolisoa tukemassa ja huolehtimassa kodin askareista. Laitoshoidon tarve vähenee, jos ja kun lesket ajan kuluessa oppivat elämään yksin. Toisaalta tutkimustulokset saattavat viitata myös siihen, että kaikkein huonokuntoisimmat lesket, jotka eivät pärjää yksin asuessaan, siirtyvät laitoshoitoon hyvin nopeasti puolison kuoltua. Tutkimuksessa oli mukana yhteensä yli 280 000 yli 65-vuotiasta henkilöä, joiden pitkäaikaiseen laitoshoitoon siirtymistä seurattiin tammikuusta 1998 syyskuuhun 2003. Laitoshoidoksi määriteltiin terveyskeskuksissa, sairaaloissa ja vanhainkodeissa tai vastaavissa yksiköissä tapahtuva pitkäaikainen hoito, joka kesti yli 90 vuorokautta tai oli vahvistettu pitkäaikaishoidon päätöksellä. Tutkimuksessa käytetty aineisto koottiin väestörekistereistä, sosiaali- ja terveydenhuollon rekistereistä ja lääkerekistereistä.

Prognostic significance of cyclooxygenase-2 and associated molecules in gastric cancer

Background and aims: Low stage and curative surgery are established factors for improved survival in gastric cancer. However, not all low-stage patients have a good prognosis. Cyclooxygenase-2 (COX-2) is known to associate with reduced survival in several cancers, and has been shown to play an important role in gastric carcinogenesis. Since new and better prognostic markers are needed for gastric cancer, we studied the prognostic significance of COX-2 and of markers that associate with COX-2 expression. We also studied markers reflecting proliferation and apoptosis, and evaluated their association with COX-2. Our purpose was to construct an accurate prognostic model by combining tissue markers and clinicopathogical factors. Materials and methods: Of 342 consecutive patients who underwent surgery for gastric cancer at Meilahti Hospital, Helsinki University Central Hospital, 337 were included in this study. Low stages I to II were represented by 141 (42%) patients, and high stages III to IV by 196 (58%). Curative surgery was performed on 176 (52%) patients. Survival data were obtained from the national registers. Slides from archive tissue blocks were prepared for immunohistochemistry by use of COX-2, human antigen R (HuR), cyclin A, matrix metalloproteinases 2 and 9 (MMP-2, MMP-9), and Ki-67 antibodies. Immunostainings were scored by microscopy, and scores were entered into a database. Associations of tumor markers with clinicopathological factors were calculated, as well as associations with p53, p21, and results of flow cytometry from earlier studies. Survival analysis was performed by the Kaplan-Meier method, and Cox multivariate models were reconstructed. Cell culture experiments were performed to explore the effect of small interfering (si)RNA of HuR on COX-2 expression in a TMK-1 gastric cancer cell line. Results: Overall 5-year survival was 35.1%. Study I showed that COX-2 was an independent prognostic factor, and that the prognostic impact of COX-2 was more pronounced in low-stage patients. Cytoplasmic HuR expression also associated with reduced survival in gastric cancer patients in a non-independent manner. Cell culture experiments showed that HuR can regulate COX-2 expression in TMK-1 cells in vitro, with an association also between COX-2 and HuR tissue expression in a clinical material. In Study II, cyclin A was an independent prognostic factor and was associated with HuR expression in the gastric cancer material. The results of Study III showed that epithelial MMP-2 associated with survival in univariate, but not in multivariate analysis. However, MMP-9 showed no prognostic value. MMP-2 expression was associated with COX-2 expression. In Study IV, the prognostic power of COX-2 was compared with that of all tested markers associated with survival in Studies I to III, as well as with p21, p53, and flow cytometry results. COX-2 and p53 were independent prognostic factors, and COX-2 expression was associated with that of p53 and Ki-67 and also with aneuploidy. Conclusions: COX-2 is an independent prognostic factor in gastric cancer, and its prognostic power emerges especially in low stage cancer. COX-2 is regulated by HuR, and is associated with factors reflecting invasion, proliferation, and apoptosis. In an extended multivariate model, COX-2 retained its position as an independent prognosticator. COX-2 can be considered a promising new prognostic marker in gastric cancer.

Relative Contribution of Cell Proliferation and Microvascularity to Metastasis in Malignant Uveal Melanoma

Uveal melanoma (UM) is the second most common primary intraocular cancer worldwide. It is a relatively rare cancer, but still the second most common type of primary malignant melanoma in humans. UM is a slowly growing tumor, and gives rise to distant metastasis mainly to the liver via the bloodstream. About 40% of patients with UM die of metastatic disease within 10 years of diagnosis, irrespective of the type of treatment. During the last decade, two main lines of research have aimed to achieve enhanced understanding of the metastasis process and accurate prognosis of patients with UM. One emphasizes the characteristics of tumor cells, particularly their nucleoli, and markers of proliferation, and the other the characteristics of tumor blood vessels. Of several morphometric measurements, the mean diameter of the ten largest nucleoli (MLN) has become the most widely applied. A large MLN has consistently been associated with high likelihood of dying from UM. Blood vessels are of paramount importance in metastasis of UM. Different extravascular matrix patterns can be seen in UM, like loops and networks. This presence is associated with death from metastatic melanoma. However, the density of microvessels is also of prognostic importance. This study was undertaken to help understanding some histopathological factors which might contribute to developing metastasis in UM patients. Factors which could be related to tumor progression to metastasis disease, namely nucleolar size, MLN, microvascular density (MVD), cell proliferation, and The Insulin-like Growth Factor 1 Receptor(IGF-1R), were investigated. The primary aim of this thesis was to study the relationship between prognostic factors such as tumor cell nucleolar size, proliferation, extravascular matrix patterns, and dissemination of UM, and to assess to what extent there is a relationship to metastasis. The secondary goal was to develop a multivariate model which includes MLN and cell proliferation in addition to MVD, and which would fit better with population-based, melanoma-related survival data than previous models. I studied 167 patients with UM, who developed metastasis even after a very long time following removal of the eye, metastatic disease was the main cause of death, as documented in the Finnish Cancer Registry and on death certificates. Using an independent population-based data set, it was confirmed that MLN and extravascular matrix loops and networks were unrelated, independent predictors of survival in UM. Also, it has been found that multivariate models including MVD in addition to MLN fitted significantly better with survival data than models which excluded MVD. This supports the idea that both the characteristics of the blood vessels and the cells are important, and the future direction would be to look for the gene expression profile, whether it is associated more with MVD or MLN. The former relates to the host response to the tumor and may not be as tightly associated with the gene expression profile, yet most likely involved in the process of hematogenous metastasis. Because fresh tumor material is needed for reliable genetic analysis, such analysis could not be performed Although noninvasive detection of certain extravascular matrix patterns is now technically possible,in managing patients with UM, this study and tumor genetics suggest that such noninvasive methods will not fully capture the process of clinical metastasis. Progress in resection and biopsy techniques is likely in the near future to result in fresh material for the ophthalmic pathologist to correlate angiographic data, histopathological characteristics such as MLN, and genetic data. This study supported the theory that tumors containing epithelioid cells grow faster and have poorer prognosis when studied by cell proliferation in UM based on Ki-67 immunoreactivity. Cell proliferation index fitted best with the survival data when combined with MVD, MLN, and presence of epithelioid cells. Analogous with the finding that high MVD in primary UM is associated with shorter time to metastasis than low MVD, high MVD in hepatic metastasis tends to be associated with shorter survival after diagnosis of metastasis. Because the liver is the main organ for metastasis from UM, growth factors largely produced in the liver hepatocyte growth factor, epidermal growth factor and insulin-like growth factor-1 (IGF-1) together with their receptors may have a role in the homing and survival of metastatic cells. Therefore the association between immunoreactivity for IGF-1R in primary UM and metastatic death was studied. It was found that immunoreactivity for IGF-IR did not independently predict metastasis from primary UM in my series.

Polimorfismos do gene da tiopurina metiltransferase (TPMT) em pacientes com doenças inflamatórias intestinais: avaliação da prevalência e correlação com efeitos colaterais

A azatioprina e a 6 mercaptopurina (6-MCP) são drogas muito utilizada no tratamento das doenças inflamatórias intestinais (DII), porém estão associadas a vários efeitos colaterais. A determinação prévia do genótipo da tiopurina metiltransferase (TPMT) pode identificar pacientes de maior risco de toxicidade a droga. Os objetivos deste estudo foram avaliar a prevalência dos polimorfismos do gene da TPMT em pacientes com DII acompanhados no Hospital Universitário Pedro Ernesto (HUPE) da UERJ, comparando com a prevalência em outras populações e correlacionar a presença desses polimorfismos com a toxicidade às drogas. Foram avaliados 146 pacientes com doença de Crohn (DC) e 73 com retocolite ulcerativa idiopática (RCUI). A pesquisa dos principais genótipos da TPMT (*2, *3, *3C) foi realizada por técnicas de PCR (alelo específico e RFLP). Os achados clínicos foram correlacionados com a genotipagem e avaliados por análises multivariadas. Dentre os pacientes que estavam em uso de azatioprina, 14 apresentaram pancreatite ou elevação de enzimas pancreáticas, 6 apresentaram hepatoxicidade e 2 evoluíram com neutropenia. Os polimorfismos do gene da TPMT foram observados em 37 dos 219 pacientes (8 foram heterozigotos para o genótipo *2, 11 heterozigotos para *3A e 18 foram heterozigotos para o polimorfismo *3C). Não foi observado nenhum homozigoto polimórfico. Uma correlação positiva foi observada entre a elevação de enzimas pancreáticas e os genótipos *2 e *3C. A prevalência dos polimorfismos neste estudo (16,89%) foi maior que a descrita para população caucasiana e em outros estudos brasileiros. Apesar do predomínio do genótipo *3C, não houve ocorrência exclusiva de um polimorfismo, conforme observado em outras populações. A população brasileira devido à sua miscigenação têm características genotípicas próprias diferentes do outros países do mundo. Dois polimorfismos da TPMT (*2 e *3C) estiveram associados à toxicidade ao uso da azatioprina em pacientes com DII no sudeste do Brasil. O teste genético pode auxiliar na escolha da melhor droga e na dose ideal para os pacientes portadores de DII antes do início do tratamento.

Real-Time and Data-Driven Operation Optimization and Knowledge Discovery for an Enterprise Information System

An enterprise information system (EIS) is an integrated data-applications platform characterized by diverse, heterogeneous, and distributed data sources. For many enterprises, a number of business processes still depend heavily on static rule-based methods and extensive human expertise. Enterprises are faced with the need for optimizing operation scheduling, improving resource utilization, discovering useful knowledge, and making data-driven decisions.

This thesis research is focused on real-time optimization and knowledge discovery that addresses workflow optimization, resource allocation, as well as data-driven predictions of process-execution times, order fulfillment, and enterprise service-level performance. In contrast to prior work on data analytics techniques for enterprise performance optimization, the emphasis here is on realizing scalable and real-time enterprise intelligence based on a combination of heterogeneous system simulation, combinatorial optimization, machine-learning algorithms, and statistical methods.

On-demand digital-print service is a representative enterprise requiring a powerful EIS.We use real-life data from Reischling Press, Inc. (RPI), a digit-print-service provider (PSP), to evaluate our optimization algorithms.

In order to handle the increase in volume and diversity of demands, we first present a high-performance, scalable, and real-time production scheduling algorithm for production automation based on an incremental genetic algorithm (IGA). The objective of this algorithm is to optimize the order dispatching sequence and balance resource utilization. Compared to prior work, this solution is scalable for a high volume of orders and it provides fast scheduling solutions for orders that require complex fulfillment procedures. Experimental results highlight its potential benefit in reducing production inefficiencies and enhancing the productivity of an enterprise.

We next discuss analysis and prediction of different attributes involved in hierarchical components of an enterprise. We start from a study of the fundamental processes related to real-time prediction. Our process-execution time and process status prediction models integrate statistical methods with machine-learning algorithms. In addition to improved prediction accuracy compared to stand-alone machine-learning algorithms, it also performs a probabilistic estimation of the predicted status. An order generally consists of multiple series and parallel processes. We next introduce an order-fulfillment prediction model that combines advantages of multiple classification models by incorporating flexible decision-integration mechanisms. Experimental results show that adopting due dates recommended by the model can significantly reduce enterprise late-delivery ratio. Finally, we investigate service-level attributes that reflect the overall performance of an enterprise. We analyze and decompose time-series data into different components according to their hierarchical periodic nature, perform correlation analysis,

and develop univariate prediction models for each component as well as multivariate models for correlated components. Predictions for the original time series are aggregated from the predictions of its components. In addition to a significant increase in mid-term prediction accuracy, this distributed modeling strategy also improves short-term time-series prediction accuracy.

In summary, this thesis research has led to a set of characterization, optimization, and prediction tools for an EIS to derive insightful knowledge from data and use them as guidance for production management. It is expected to provide solutions for enterprises to increase reconfigurability, accomplish more automated procedures, and obtain data-driven recommendations or effective decisions.

LPS-binding protein and IL-6 Mark paradoxical tuberculosis immune reconstitution inflammatory syndrome in HIV patients

Background: Tuberculosis-associated immune reconstitution inflammatory syndrome (TB-IRIS) remains a poorly understood complication in HIV-TB co-infected patients initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART). The role of the innate immune system in TB-IRIS is becoming increasingly apparent, however the potential involvement in TB-IRIS of a leaky gut and proteins that interfere with TLR stimulation by binding PAMPs has not been investigated before. Here we aimed to investigate the innate nature of the cytokine response in TB-IRIS and to identify novel potential biomarkers. Methods: From a large prospective cohort of HIV-TB co-infected patients receiving TB treatment, we compared 40 patients who developed TB-IRIS during the first month of ART with 40 patients matched for age, sex and baseline CD4 count who did not. We analyzed plasma levels of lipopolysaccharide (LPS)-binding protein (LBP), LPS, sCD14, endotoxin-core antibody, intestinal fatty acid-binding protein (I-FABP) and 18 pro-and anti-inflammatory cytokines before and during ART. Results: We observed lower baseline levels of IL-6 (p = 0.041), GCSF (p = 0.036) and LBP (p = 0.016) in TB-IRIS patients. At IRIS event, we detected higher levels of LBP, IL-1RA, IL-4, IL-6, IL-7, IL-8, G-CSF (p ≤ 0.032) and lower I-FABP levels (p = 0.013) compared to HIV-TB co-infected controls. Only IL-6 showed an independent effect in multivariate models containing significant cytokines from pre-ART (p = 0.039) and during TB-IRIS (p = 0.034). Conclusion: We report pre-ART IL-6 and LBP levels as well as IL-6, LBP and I-FABP levels during IRIS-event as potential biomarkers in TB-IRIS. Our results show no evidence of the possible contribution of a leaky gut to TB-IRIS and indicate that IL-6 holds a distinct role in the disturbed innate cytokine profile before and during TB-IRIS. Future clinical studies should investigate the importance and clinical relevance of these markers for the diagnosis and treatment of TB-IRIS. Copyright: © 2013 Goovaerts et al.

Association of dietary fat intakes with risk of esophageal and gastric cancer in the NIH-AARP diet and health study

The aim of our study was to investigate whether intakes of total fat and fat subtypes were associated with esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC), esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC), gastric cardia or gastric noncardia adenocarcinoma. From 1995–1996, dietary intake data was reported by 494,978 participants of the NIH-AARP cohort. The 630 EAC, 215 ESCC, 454 gastric cardia and 501 gastric noncardia adenocarcinomas accrued to the cohort. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to examine the association between the dietary fat intakes, whilst adjusting for potential confounders. Although apparent associations were observed in energy-adjusted models, multivariate adjustment attenuated results to null [e.g., EAC energy adjusted hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.66 (1.27–2.18) p for trend <0.01; EAC multivariate adjusted HR (95% CI) 1.17 (0.84–1.64) p for trend 5 0.58]. Similar patterns were also observed for fat subtypes [e.g., EAC saturated fat, energy adjusted HR (95% CI) 1.79 (1.37–2.33) p for trend <0.01; EAC saturated fat, multivariate adjusted HR (95% CI) 1.27 (0.91–1.78) p for trend 5 0.28]. However, in multivariate models an inverse association for polyunsaturated fat (continuous) was seen for EAC in subjects with a body mass index (BMI) in the normal range (18.5–<25 kg/m2) [HR (95% CI) 0.76 (0.63–0.92)], that was not present in overweight subjects [HR (95% CI) 1.04 (0.96–1.14)], or in unstratified analysis [HR (95% CI) 0.97 (0.90–1.05)]. p for interaction 5 0.02. Overall, we found null associations between the dietary fat intakes with esophageal or gastric cancer risk; although a protective effect of polyunsaturated fat intake was seen for EAC in subjects with a normal BMI.

The role of private care in the interval between diagnosis and treatment of breast cancer in Northern Ireland: an analysis of Registry data

Objective: To examine the differences in the interval between diagnosis and initiation of treatment among women with breast cancer in Northern Ireland.

Design: A cross-sectional observational study.
Setting: All breast cancer care patients in the Northern Ireland Cancer Registry in 2006.
Participants: All women diagnosed and treated for breast cancer in Northern Ireland in 2006.
Main outcome measure: The number of days between diagnosis and initiation of treatment for breast cancer.

Results: The mean (median) interval between diagnosis and initiation of treatment among public patients was 19 (15) compared with 14 (12) among those whose care involved private providers. The differences between individual public providers were as marked as those between the public and private sector - the mean (median) ranging between 14 (12) and 25 (22) days. Multivariate models revealed that the differences were evident when a range of patient characteristics were controlled for including cancer stage.

Conclusions: A relatively small number of women received care privately in Northern Ireland but experienced shorter intervals between diagnosis and initiation of treatment than those who received care wholly in the public system. The variation among public providers was as great as that between the public and private providers. The impact of such differences on survival and in light of waiting time targets introduced in Northern Ireland warrants investigation.

Integrating personality research and animal contest theory:Aggressiveness in the green swordtail xiphophorus helleri

Aggression occurs when individuals compete over limiting resources. While theoretical studies have long placed a strong emphasis on context-specificity of aggression, there is increasing recognition that consistent behavioural differences exist among individuals, and that aggressiveness may be an important component of individual personality. Though empirical studies tend to focus on one aspect or the other, we suggest there is merit in modelling both within- and among-individual variation in agonistic behaviour simultaneously. Here, we demonstrate how this can be achieved using multivariate linear mixed effect models. Using data from repeated mirror trials and dyadic interactions of male green swordtails, Xiphophorus helleri, we show repeatable components of (co)variation in a suite of agonistic behaviour that is broadly consistent with a major axis of variation in aggressiveness. We also show that observed focal behaviour is dependent on opponent effects, which can themselves be repeatable but were more generally found to be context specific. In particular, our models show that within-individual variation in agonistic behaviour is explained, at least in part, by the relative size of a live opponent as predicted by contest theory. Finally, we suggest several additional applications of the multivariate models demonstrated here. These include testing the recently queried functional equivalence of alternative experimental approaches, (e.g., mirror trials, dyadic interaction tests) for assaying individual aggressiveness. © 2011 Wilson et al.