Improvement of 3D protein models using multiple templates guided by single-template model quality assessment

Motivation: Modelling the 3D structures of proteins can often be enhanced if more than one fold template is used during the modelling process. However, in many cases, this may also result in poorer model quality for a given target or alignment method. There is a need for modelling protocols that can both consistently and significantly improve 3D models and provide an indication of when models might not benefit from the use of multiple target-template alignments. Here, we investigate the use of both global and local model quality prediction scores produced by ModFOLDclust2, to improve the selection of target-template alignments for the construction of multiple-template models. Additionally, we evaluate clustering the resulting population of multi- and single-template models for the improvement of our IntFOLD-TS tertiary structure prediction method. Results: We find that using accurate local model quality scores to guide alignment selection is the most consistent way to significantly improve models for each of the sequence to structure alignment methods tested. In addition, using accurate global model quality for re-ranking alignments, prior to selection, further improves the majority of multi-template modelling methods tested. Furthermore, subsequent clustering of the resulting population of multiple-template models significantly improves the quality of selected models compared with the previous version of our tertiary structure prediction method, IntFOLD-TS.

The multiple hierarchical legislatures in representative democracy

Multiple hierarchical models of representative democracies in which, for instance, voters elect county representatives, county representatives elect district representatives, district representatives elect state representatives and state representatives a president, reduces the number of electors a representative is answerable for, and therefore, considering each level separately, these models could come closer to direct democracy. In this paper we show that worst case policy bias increases with the number of hierarchical levels. This also means that the opportunities of a gerrymanderer increase in the number of hierarchical levels.

Relações entre marcadores digito-palamres e aptidão fisica em atletas de judo de elite

Universidade Estadual de Campinas . Faculdade de Educação Física

Espacialização da temperatura do ar anual no estado de Alagoas com diferentes modelos digitais de elevação e resoluções espaciais

The aim of this study was to establish a digital elevation model and its horizontal resolution to interpolate the annual air temperature for the Alagoas State by means of multiple linear regression models. A multiple linear regression model was adjusted to series (11 to 34 years) of annual air temperatures obtained from 28 weather stations in the states of Alagoas, Bahia, Pernambuco and Sergipe, in the Northeast of Brazil, in function of latitude, longitude and altitude. The elevation models SRTM and GTOPO30 were used in the analysis, with original resolutions of 90 and 900 m, respectively. The SRTM was resampled for horizontal resolutions of 125, 250, 500, 750 and 900 m. For spatializing the annual mean air temperature for the state of Alagoas, a multiple linear regression model was used for each elevation and spatial resolution on a grid of the latitude and longitude. In Alagoas, estimates based on SRTM data resulted in a standard error of estimate (0.57 degrees C) and dispersion (r(2) = 0.62) lower than those obtained from GTOPO30 (0.93 degrees C and 0.20). In terms of SRTM resolutions, no significant differences were observed between the standard error (0.55 degrees C; 750 m - 0.58 degrees C; 250m) and dispersion (0.60; 500 m - 0.65; 750 m) estimates. The spatialization of annual air temperature in Alagoas, via multiple regression models applied to SRTM data showed higher concordance than that obtained with the GTOPO30, independent of the spatial resolution.

Mercury exposure and oxidative stress in communities of the Brazilian Amazon

This study was designed to assess possible associations between biomarkers of mercury (Hg) exposure and oxidative stress in fish-eating Amazonian communities. Clinical samples were obtained from riparians living in the Brazilian Amazon. Biomarkers of oxidative stress (glutathione - GSH, glutathione peroxidase - GSH-Px, catalase - CAT, activity and reactivation index of delta-aminolevulinate dehydratase - ALA-D (R%) were determined in blood. Total Hg was measured in whole blood (B-Hg), plasma (P-Hg) and hair (H-Hg). Association between biomarkers of Hg exposure and oxidative stress were examined using multiple regression models, including age, gender, alcohol consumption, smoking status, fish consumption and then stratified for gender. Significant inverse relations were observed between GSH-Px, GSH, CAT, ALA-D activity and B-Hg or H-Hg (p<0.05). ALA-D reactivation index was positively related to B-Hg (p<0.0001). P-Hg was directly related to ALA-D reactivation index and inversely associated with GSH-Px, GSH, and ALA-D activity (p<0.05). When stratified for gender, women showed significant inverse associations between all biomarkers of Hg exposure and CAT (p<0.05) or GSH (p<0.05), while for men only P-Hg showed a significant inverse relation with GSH (p<0.001). Our results clearly demonstrated an association between Hg exposure and oxidative stress. Moreover, for B-Hg, P-Hg and H-Hg gender differences were present. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Estimation of electronic coupling in π -stacked donor-bridge-acceptor systems: correction of the two-state model

Comparison of donor-acceptor electronic couplings calculated within two-state and three-state models suggests that the two-state treatment can provide unreliable estimates of Vda because of neglecting the multistate effects. We show that in most cases accurate values of the electronic coupling in a π stack, where donor and acceptor are separated by a bridging unit, can be obtained as Ṽ da = (E2 - E1) μ12 Rda + (2 E3 - E1 - E2) 2 μ13 μ23 Rda2, where E1, E2, and E3 are adiabatic energies of the ground, charge-transfer, and bridge states, respectively, μij is the transition dipole moments between the states i and j, and Rda is the distance between the planes of donor and acceptor. In this expression based on the generalized Mulliken-Hush approach, the first term corresponds to the coupling derived within a two-state model, whereas the second term is the superexchange correction accounting for the bridge effect. The formula is extended to bridges consisting of several subunits. The influence of the donor-acceptor energy mismatch on the excess charge distribution, adiabatic dipole and transition moments, and electronic couplings is examined. A diagnostic is developed to determine whether the two-state approach can be applied. Based on numerical results, we showed that the superexchange correction considerably improves estimates of the donor-acceptor coupling derived within a two-state approach. In most cases when the two-state scheme fails, the formula gives reliable results which are in good agreement (within 5%) with the data of the three-state generalized Mulliken-Hush model

Modeling of non-isothermalvapor membrane separation with thermodynamic models and generalized mass transfer equations

A rigorous unit operation model is developed for vapor membrane separation. The new model is able to describe temperature, pressure, and concentration dependent permeation as wellreal fluid effects in vapor and gas separation with hydrocarbon selective rubbery polymeric membranes. The permeation through the membrane is described by a separate treatment of sorption and diffusion within the membrane. The chemical engineering thermodynamics is used to describe the equilibrium sorption of vapors and gases in rubbery membranes with equation of state models for polymeric systems. Also a new modification of the UNIFAC model is proposed for this purpose. Various thermodynamic models are extensively compared in order to verify the models' ability to predict and correlate experimental vapor-liquid equilibrium data. The penetrant transport through the selective layer of the membrane is described with the generalized Maxwell-Stefan equations, which are able to account for thebulk flux contribution as well as the diffusive coupling effect. A method is described to compute and correlate binary penetrant¿membrane diffusion coefficients from the experimental permeability coefficients at different temperatures and pressures. A fluid flow model for spiral-wound modules is derived from the conservation equation of mass, momentum, and energy. The conservation equations are presented in a discretized form by using the control volume approach. A combination of the permeation model and the fluid flow model yields the desired rigorous model for vapor membrane separation. The model is implemented into an inhouse process simulator and so vapor membrane separation may be evaluated as an integralpart of a process flowsheet.

MCMC Analysis for Optimization of Stochastic Models

In any decision making under uncertainties, the goal is mostly to minimize the expected cost. The minimization of cost under uncertainties is usually done by optimization. For simple models, the optimization can easily be done using deterministic methods.However, many models practically contain some complex and varying parameters that can not easily be taken into account using usual deterministic methods of optimization. Thus, it is very important to look for other methods that can be used to get insight into such models. MCMC method is one of the practical methods that can be used for optimization of stochastic models under uncertainty. This method is based on simulation that provides a general methodology which can be applied in nonlinear and non-Gaussian state models. MCMC method is very important for practical applications because it is a uni ed estimation procedure which simultaneously estimates both parameters and state variables. MCMC computes the distribution of the state variables and parameters of the given data measurements. MCMC method is faster in terms of computing time when compared to other optimization methods. This thesis discusses the use of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods for optimization of Stochastic models under uncertainties .The thesis begins with a short discussion about Bayesian Inference, MCMC and Stochastic optimization methods. Then an example is given of how MCMC can be applied for maximizing production at a minimum cost in a chemical reaction process. It is observed that this method performs better in optimizing the given cost function with a very high certainty.

Estimation of electronic coupling in π -stacked donor-bridge-acceptor systems: correction of the two-state model

Comparison of donor-acceptor electronic couplings calculated within two-state and three-state models suggests that the two-state treatment can provide unreliable estimates of Vda because of neglecting the multistate effects. We show that in most cases accurate values of the electronic coupling in a π stack, where donor and acceptor are separated by a bridging unit, can be obtained as Ṽ da = (E2 - E1) μ12 Rda + (2 E3 - E1 - E2) 2 μ13 μ23 Rda2, where E1, E2, and E3 are adiabatic energies of the ground, charge-transfer, and bridge states, respectively, μij is the transition dipole moments between the states i and j, and Rda is the distance between the planes of donor and acceptor. In this expression based on the generalized Mulliken-Hush approach, the first term corresponds to the coupling derived within a two-state model, whereas the second term is the superexchange correction accounting for the bridge effect. The formula is extended to bridges consisting of several subunits. The influence of the donor-acceptor energy mismatch on the excess charge distribution, adiabatic dipole and transition moments, and electronic couplings is examined. A diagnostic is developed to determine whether the two-state approach can be applied. Based on numerical results, we showed that the superexchange correction considerably improves estimates of the donor-acceptor coupling derived within a two-state approach. In most cases when the two-state scheme fails, the formula gives reliable results which are in good agreement (within 5%) with the data of the three-state generalized Mulliken-Hush model

Examination of long-wave radiative bias in general circulation models over North Africa during May–July

Satellite data are used to quantify and examine the bias in the outgoing long-wave (LW) radiation over North Africa during May–July simulated by a range of climate models and the Met Office global numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. Simulations from an ensemble-mean of multiple climate models overestimate outgoing clear-sky long-wave radiation (LWc) by more than 20 W m−2 relative to observations from Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) for May–July 2000 over parts of the west Sahara, and by 9 W m−2 for the North Africa region (20°W–30°E, 10–40°N). Experiments with the atmosphere-only version of the High-resolution Hadley Centre Global Environment Model (HiGEM), suggest that including mineral dust radiative effects removes this bias. Furthermore, only by reducing surface temperature and emissivity by unrealistic amounts is it possible to explain the magnitude of the bias. Comparing simulations from the Met Office NWP model with satellite observations from Geostationary Earth Radiation Budget (GERB) instruments suggests that the model overestimates the LW by 20–40 W m−2 during North African summer. The bias declines over the period 2003–2008, although this is likely to relate to improvements in the model and inhomogeneity in the satellite time series. The bias in LWc coincides with high aerosol dust loading estimated from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), including during the GERBILS field campaign (18–28 June 2007) where model overestimates in LWc greater than 20 W m−2 and OMI-estimated aerosol optical depth (AOD) greater than 0.8 are concurrent around 20°N, 0–20°W. A model-minus-GERB LW bias of around 30 W m−2 coincides with high AOD during the period 18–21 June 2007, although differences in cloud cover also impact the model–GERB differences. Copyright © Royal Meteorological Society and Crown Copyright, 2010

Real-time forecasting of inflation and output growth with autoregressive models in the presence of data revisions

We examine how the accuracy of real-time forecasts from models that include autoregressive terms can be improved by estimating the models on ‘lightly revised’ data instead of using data from the latest-available vintage. The benefits of estimating autoregressive models on lightly revised data are related to the nature of the data revision process and the underlying process for the true values. Empirically, we find improvements in root mean square forecasting error of 2–4% when forecasting output growth and inflation with univariate models, and of 8% with multivariate models. We show that multiple-vintage models, which explicitly model data revisions, require large estimation samples to deliver competitive forecasts. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Weather-based prediction of anthracnose severity using artificial neural network models

Data were collected and analysed from seven field sites in Australia, Brazil and Colombia on weather conditions and the severity of anthracnose disease of the tropical pasture legume Stylosanthes scabra caused by Colletotrichum gloeosporioides. Disease severity and weather data were analysed using artificial neural network (ANN) models developed using data from some or all field sites in Australia and/or South America to predict severity at other sites. Three series of models were developed using different weather summaries. of these, ANN models with weather for the day of disease assessment and the previous 24 h period had the highest prediction success, and models trained on data from all sites within one continent correctly predicted disease severity in the other continent on more than 75% of days; the overall prediction error was 21.9% for the Australian and 22.1% for the South American model. of the six cross-continent ANN models trained on pooled data for five sites from two continents to predict severity for the remaining sixth site, the model developed without data from Planaltina in Brazil was the most accurate, with >85% prediction success, and the model without Carimagua in Colombia was the least accurate, with only 54% success. In common with multiple regression models, moisture-related variables such as rain, leaf surface wetness and variables that influence moisture availability such as radiation and wind on the day of disease severity assessment or the day before assessment were the most important weather variables in all ANN models. A set of weights from the ANN models was used to calculate the overall risk of anthracnose for the various sites. Sites with high and low anthracnose risk are present in both continents, and weather conditions at centres of diversity in Brazil and Colombia do not appear to be more conducive than conditions in Australia to serious anthracnose development.

Interação genótipo – ambiente no peso ao sobreano na raça Nelore

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

The Emergence of the Post-Socialist Welfare State - The Case of the Baltic States : Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania

This dissertation takes a step towards providing a better understanding of post-socialist welfare state development from a theoretical as well as an empirical perspective. The overall analytical goal of this thesis has been to critically assess the development of social policies in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania using them as illustrative examples of post-socialist welfare state development in the light of the theories, approaches and typologies that have been developed to study affluent capitalist democracies. The four studies included in this dissertation aspire to a common aim in a number of specific ways. The first study tries to place the ideal-typical welfare state models of the Baltic States within the well-known welfare state typologies. At the same time, it provides a rich overview of the main social security institutions in the three countries by comparing them with each other and with the previous structures of the Soviet period. It examines the social insurance institutions of the Baltic States (old-age pensions, unemployment insurance, short-term benefits, sickness, maternity and parental insurance and family benefits) with respect to conditions of eligibility, replacement rates, financing and contributions. The findings of this study indicate that the Latvian social security system can generally be labelled as a mix of the basic security and corporatist models. The Estonian social security system can generally also be characterised as a mix of the basic security and corporatist models, even if there are some weak elements of the targeted model in it. It appears that the institutional changes developing in the social security system of Lithuania have led to a combination of the basic security and targeted models of the welfare state. Nevertheless, as the example of the three Baltic States shows, there is diversity in how these countries solve problems within the field of social policy. In studying the social security schemes in detail, some common features were found that could be attributed to all three countries. Therefore, the critical analysis of the main social security institutions of the Baltic States in this study gave strong supporting evidence in favour of identifying the post-socialist regime type that is already gaining acceptance within comparative welfare state research. Study Two compares the system of social maintenance and insurance in the Soviet Union, which was in force in the three Baltic countries before their independence, with the currently existing social security systems. The aim of the essay is to highlight the forces that have influenced the transformation of the social policy from its former highly universal, albeit authoritarian, form, to the less universal, social insurance-based systems of present-day Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. This study demonstrates that the welfare–economy nexus is not the only important factor in the development of social programs. The results of this analysis revealed that people's attitudes towards distributive justice and the developmental level of civil society also play an important part in shaping social policies. The shift to individualism in people’s mentality and the decline of the labour movement, or, to be more precise, the decline in trade union membership and influence, does nothing to promote the development of social rights in the Baltic countries and hinders the expansion of social policies. The legacy of the past has been another important factor in shaping social programs. It can be concluded that social policy should be studied as if embedded not only in the welfare-economy nexus, but also in the societal, historical and cultural nexus of a given society. Study Three discusses the views of the state elites on family policy within a wider theoretical setting covering family policy and social policy in a broader sense and attempts to expand this analytical framework to include other post-socialist countries. The aim of this essay is to explore the various views of the state elites in the Baltics concerning family policy and, in particular, family benefits as one of the possible explanations for the observed policy differences. The qualitative analyses indicate that the Baltic States differ significantly with regard to the motives behind their family policies. Lithuanian decision-makers seek to reduce poverty among families with children and enhance the parents’ responsibility for bringing up their children. Latvian policy-makers act so as to increase the birth rate and create equal opportunities for children from all families. Estonian policy-makers seek to create equal opportunities for all children and the desire to enhance gender equality is more visible in the case of Estonia in comparison with the other two countries. It is strongly arguable that there is a link between the underlying motives and the kinds of family benefits in a given country. This study, thus, indicates how intimately the attitudes of the state bureaucrats, policy-makers, political elite and researchers shape social policy. It confirms that family policy is a product of the prevailing ideology within a country, while the potential influence of globalisation and Europeanisation is detectable too. The final essay takes into account the opinions of welfare users and examines the performances of the institutionalised family benefits by relying on the recipients’ opinions regarding these benefits. The opinions of the populations as a whole regarding government efforts to help families are compared with those of the welfare users. Various family benefits are evaluated according to the recipients' satisfaction with those benefits as well as the contemporaneous levels of subjective satisfaction with the welfare programs related to the absolute level of expenditure on each program. The findings of this paper indicate that, in Latvia, people experience a lower level of success regarding state-run family insurance institutions, as compared to those in Lithuania and Estonia. This is deemed to be because the cash benefits for families and children in Latvia are, on average, seen as marginally influencing the overall financial situation of the families concerned. In Lithuania and Estonia, the overwhelming majority think that the family benefit systems improve the financial situation of families. It appears that recipients evaluated universal family benefits as less positive than targeted benefits. Some universal benefits negatively influenced the level of general satisfaction with the family benefits system provided in the countries being researched. This study puts forward a discussion about whether universalism is always more legitimate than targeting. In transitional economies, in which resources are highly constrained, some forms of universal benefits could turn out to be very expensive in relative terms, without being seen as useful or legitimate forms of help to families. In sum, by closely examining the different aspects of social policy, this dissertation goes beyond the over-generalisation of Eastern European welfare state development and, instead, takes a more detailed look at what is really going on in these countries through the examples of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. In addition, another important contribution made by this study is that it revives ‘western’ theoretical knowledge through ‘eastern’ empirical evidence and provides the opportunity to expand the theoretical framework for post-socialist societies.

Methodology and models in erosion research: discussion and conclusions

This paper summarises the discussions which took place at the Workshop on Methodology in Erosion Research in Zürich, 2010, and aims, where possible, to offer guidance for the development and application of both in vitro and in situ models for erosion research. The prospects for clinical trials are also discussed. All models in erosion research require a number of choices regarding experimental conditions, study design and measurement techniques, and these general aspects are discussed first. Among in vitro models, simple (single- or multiple-exposure) models can be used for screening products regarding their erosive potential, while more elaborate pH cycling models can be used to simulate erosion in vivo. However, in vitro models provide limited information on intra-oral erosion. In situ models allow the effect of an erosive challenge to be evaluated under intra-oral conditions and are currently the method of choice for short-term testing of low-erosive products or preventive therapeutic products. In the future, clinical trials will allow longer-term testing. Possible methodologies for such trials are discussed.