Sectoral Price Rigidity and Aggregate Dynamics

In this paper, we study the macroeconomic implications of sectoral heterogeneity and, in particular, heterogeneity in price setting, through the lens of a highly disaggregated multi-sector model. The model incorporates several realistic features and is estimated using a mix of aggregate and sectoral U.S. data. The frequencies of price changes implied by our estimates are remarkably consistent with those reported in micro-based studies, especially for non-sale prices. The model is used to study (i) the contribution of sectoral characteristics to the observed cross sectional heterogeneity in sectoral output and inflation responses to a monetary policy shock, (ii) the implications of sectoral price rigidity for aggregate output and inflation dynamics and for cost pass-through, and (iii) the role of sectoral shocks in explaining sectoral prices and quantities.

Bottom-up modelling of energy demand and technical energy savings potential in the Irish residential sector

The International Energy Agency has repeatedly identified increased end-use energy efficiency as the quickest, least costly method of green house gas mitigation, most recently in the 2012 World Energy Outlook, and urges all governing bodies to increase efforts to promote energy efficiency policies and technologies. The residential sector is recognised as a major potential source of cost effective energy efficiency gains. Within the EU this relative importance can be seen from a review of the National Energy Efficiency Action Plans (NEEAP) submitted by member states, which in all cases place a large emphasis on the residential sector. This is particularly true for Ireland whose residential sector has historically had higher energy consumption and CO2 emissions than the EU average and whose first NEEAP targeted 44% of the energy savings to be achieved in 2020 from this sector. This thesis develops a bottom-up engineering archetype modelling approach to analyse the Irish residential sector and to estimate the technical energy savings potential of a number of policy measures. First, a model of space and water heating energy demand for new dwellings is built and used to estimate the technical energy savings potential due to the introduction of the 2008 and 2010 changes to part L of the building regulations governing energy efficiency in new dwellings. Next, the author makes use of a valuable new dataset of Building Energy Rating (BER) survey results to first characterise the highly heterogeneous stock of existing dwellings, and then to estimate the technical energy savings potential of an ambitious national retrofit programme targeting up to 1 million residential dwellings. This thesis also presents work carried out by the author as part of a collaboration to produce a bottom-up, multi-sector LEAP model for Ireland. Overall this work highlights the challenges faced in successfully implementing both sets of policy measures. It points to the wide potential range of final savings possible from particular policy measures and the resulting high degree of uncertainty as to whether particular targets will be met and identifies the key factors on which the success of these policies will depend. It makes recommendations on further modelling work and on the improvements necessary in the data available to researchers and policy makers alike in order to develop increasingly sophisticated residential energy demand models and better inform policy.

Electromagnetism based approach to Sector design in Waste Collection

For efficient planning of waste collection routing, large municipalities may be partitioned into convenient sectors. The real case under consideration is the municipality of Monção, in Portugal. Waste collection involves more than 1600 containers over an area of 220 km2 and a population of around 20,000 inhabitants. This is mostly a rural area where the population is distributed in small villages around the 33 boroughs centres (freguesia) that constitute the municipality. In most freguesias, waste collection is usually conducted 3 times a week. However, there are situations in which the same collection is done every day. The case reveals some general and specific characteristics which are not rare, but are not widely addressed in the literature. Furthermore, new methods and models to deal with sectorization and routing are introduced, which can be extended to other applications. Sectorization and routing are tackled following a three-phase approach. The first phase, which is the main concern of the presentation, introduces a new method for sectorization inspired by Electromagnetism and Coulomb’s Law. The matter is not only about territorial division, but also the frequency of waste collection, which is a critical issue in these types of applications. Special characteristics related to the number and type of deposition points were also a motivation for this work. The second phase addresses the routing problems in each sector: new Mixed Capacitated Arc Routing with Limited Multi-Landfills models will be presented. The last phase integrates Sectoring and Routing. Computational results confirm the effectiveness of the entire novel approach.

Los conceptos de salud financiera, riesgo y epidemiología en los estados financieros de las compañías del sector de extracción de petróleo crudo y gas natural en Colombia

El presente proyecto tiene como objeto identificar cuáles son los conceptos de salud, enfermedad, epidemiología y riesgo aplicables a las empresas del sector de extracción de petróleo y gas natural en Colombia. Dado, el bajo nivel de predicción de los análisis financieros tradicionales y su insuficiencia, en términos de inversión y toma de decisiones a largo plazo, además de no considerar variables como el riesgo y las expectativas de futuro, surge la necesidad de abordar diferentes perspectivas y modelos integradores. Esta apreciación es pertinente dentro del sector de extracción de petróleo y gas natural, debido a la creciente inversión extranjera que ha reportado, US$2.862 millones en el 2010, cifra mayor a diez veces su valor en el año 2003. Así pues, se podrían desarrollar modelos multi-dimensional, con base en los conceptos de salud financiera, epidemiológicos y estadísticos. El termino de salud y su adopción en el sector empresarial, resulta útil y mantiene una coherencia conceptual, evidenciando una presencia de diferentes subsistemas o factores interactuantes e interconectados. Es necesario mencionar también, que un modelo multidimensional (multi-stage) debe tener en cuenta el riesgo y el análisis epidemiológico ha demostrado ser útil al momento de determinarlo e integrarlo en el sistema junto a otros conceptos, como la razón de riesgo y riesgo relativo. Esto se analizará mediante un estudio teórico-conceptual, que complementa un estudio previo, para contribuir al proyecto de finanzas corporativas de la línea de investigación en Gerencia.

A review of multi-factor capacity expansion models for manufacturing plants:searching for a holistic decision aid

Investment in capacity expansion remains one of the most critical decisions for a manufacturing organisation with global production facilities. Multiple factors need to be considered making the decision process very complex. The purpose of this paper is to establish the state-of-the-art in multi-factor models for capacity expansion of manufacturing plants within a corporation. The research programme consisting of an extensive literature review and a structured assessment of the strengths and weaknesses of the current research is presented. The study found that there is a wealth of mathematical multi-factor models for evaluating capacity expansion decisions however no single contribution captures all the different facets of the problem.

Általános egyensúlyi modellek alkalmazása gazdaságpolitikai elemzésekre (Application of general equilibrium models to economic policy analyses)

A szerző az alkalmazott többszektoros modellezés területén a lineáris programozási modellektől a számszerűsített általános egyensúlyi modellekig végbement változásokat tekinti át. Egy rövid történeti visszapillantás után a lineáris programozás módszereire épülő nemzetgazdasági szintű modellekkel összevetve mutatja be az általános egyensúlyi modellek közös, illetve eltérő jellemzőit. Egyidejűleg azt is érzékelteti, hogyan lehet az általános egyensúlyi modelleket a gazdaságpolitikai célok konzisztenciájának, a célok közötti átváltási lehetőségek elemzésére és általában a gazdaságpolitikai elképzelések érzékenységi vizsgálatára felhasználni. A szerző az elméleti-módszertani kérdések taglalását számszerűsített általános egyensúlyi modell segítségével illusztrálja. _______ The author surveys the changes having taken place in the field of multi-sector modeling, from the linear programming models to the quantified general equilibrium models. After a brief historical retrospection he presents the common and different characteristic features of the general equilibrium models by comparing them with the national economic level models based on the methods of linear programming. He also makes clear how the general equilibrium models can be used for analysing the consistency of economic policy targets, for the investigation of trade-off possibilities among the targets and, in general, for sensitivity analyses of economic policy targets. The discussion of theoretical and methodological quuestions is illustrated by the author with the aid of a quantified general equilibrium model.

Concurrent multi-scale modeling of civil infrastructures for analyses on structural deterioration—Part I : Modeling methodology and strategy

This paper aims to develop the methodology and strategy for concurrent finite element modeling of civil infrastructures at the different scale levels for the purposes of analyses of structural deteriorating. The modeling strategy and method were investigated to develop the concurrent multi-scale model of structural behavior (CMSM-of-SB) in which the global structural behavior and nonlinear damage features of local details in a large complicated structure could be concurrently analyzed in order to meet the needs of structural-state evaluation as well as structural deteriorating. In the proposed method, the “large-scale” modeling is adopted for the global structure with linear responses between stress and strain and the “small-scale” modeling is available for nonlinear damage analyses of the local welded details. A longitudinal truss in steel bridge decks was selected as a case to study how a CMSM-of-SB was developed. The reduced-scale specimen of the longitudinal truss was studied in the laboratory to measure its dynamic and static behavior in global truss and local welded details, while the multi-scale models using constraint equations and substructuring were developed for numerical simulation. The comparison of dynamic and static response between the calculated results by different models indicated that the proposed multi-scale model was found to be the most efficient and accurate. The verification of the model with results from the tested truss under the specific loading showed that, responses at the material scale in the vicinity of local details as well as structural global behaviors could be obtained and fit well with the measured results. The proposed concurrent multi-scale modeling strategy and implementation procedures were applied to Runyang cable-stayed bridge (RYCB) and the CMSM-of-SB of the bridge deck system was accordingly constructed as a practical application.

Understanding causal relationships between the built and social environment, health and associated behaviours and risk factors

Introduction: Built environment interventions designed to reduce non-communicable diseases and health inequity, complement urban planning agendas focused on creating more ‘liveable’, compact, pedestrian-friendly, less automobile dependent and more socially inclusive cities.However, what constitutes a ‘liveable’ community is not well defined. Moreover, there appears to be a gap between the concept and delivery of ‘liveable’ communities. The recently funded NHMRC Centre of Research Excellence (CRE) in Healthy Liveable Communities established in early 2014, has defined ‘liveability’ from a social determinants of health perspective. Using purpose-designed multilevel longitudinal data sets, it addresses five themes that address key evidence-base gaps for building healthy and liveable communities. The CRE in Healthy Liveable Communities seeks to generate and exchange new knowledge about: 1) measurement of policy-relevant built environment features associated with leading non-communicable disease risk factors (physical activity, obesity) and health outcomes (cardiovascular disease, diabetes) and mental health; 2) causal relationships and thresholds for built environment interventions using data from longitudinal studies and natural experiments; 3) thresholds for built environment interventions; 4) economic benefits of built environment interventions designed to influence health and wellbeing outcomes; and 5) factors, tools, and interventions that facilitate the translation of research into policy and practice. This evidence is critical to inform future policy and practice in health, land use, and transport planning. Moreover, to ensure policy-relevance and facilitate research translation, the CRE in Healthy Liveable Communities builds upon ongoing, and has established new, multi-sector collaborations with national and state policy-makers and practitioners. The symposium will commence with a brief introduction to embed the research within an Australian health and urban planning context, as well as providing an overall outline of the CRE in Healthy Liveable Communities, its structure and team. Next, an overview of the five research themes will be presented. Following these presentations, the Discussant will consider the implications of the research and opportunities for translation and knowledge exchange. Theme 2 will establish whether and to what extent the neighbourhood environment (built and social) is causally related to physical and mental health and associated behaviours and risk factors. In particular, research conducted as part of this theme will use data from large-scale, longitudinal-multilevel studies (HABITAT, RESIDE, AusDiab) to examine relationships that meet causality criteria via statistical methods such as longitudinal mixed-effect and fixed-effect models, multilevel and structural equation models; analyse data on residential preferences to investigate confounding due to neighbourhood self-selection and to use measurement and analysis tools such as propensity score matching and ‘within-person’ change modelling to address confounding; analyse data about individual-level factors that might confound, mediate or modify relationships between the neighbourhood environment and health and well-being (e.g., psychosocial factors, knowledge, perceptions, attitudes, functional status), and; analyse data on both objective neighbourhood characteristics and residents’ perceptions of these objective features to more accurately assess the relative contribution of objective and perceptual factors to outcomes such as health and well-being, physical activity, active transport, obesity, and sedentary behaviour. At the completion of the Theme 2, we will have demonstrated and applied statistical methods appropriate for determining causality and generated evidence about causal relationships between the neighbourhood environment, health, and related outcomes. This will provide planners and policy makers with a more robust (valid and reliable) basis on which to design healthy communities.

The EBM-DPSER conceptual model: integrating ecosystem services into the DPSIR framework

There is a pressing need to integrate biophysical and human dimensions science to better inform holistic ecosystem management supporting the transition from single species or single-sector management to multi-sector ecosystem-based management. Ecosystem-based management should focus upon ecosystem services, since they reflect societal goals, values, desires, and benefits. The inclusion of ecosystem services into holistic management strategies improves management by better capturing the diversity of positive and negative human-natural interactions and making explicit the benefits to society. To facilitate this inclusion, we propose a conceptual model that merges the broadly applied Driver, Pressure, State, Impact, and Response (DPSIR) conceptual model with ecosystem services yielding a Driver, Pressure, State, Ecosystem service, and Response (EBM-DPSER) conceptual model. The impact module in traditional DPSIR models focuses attention upon negative anthropomorphic impacts on the ecosystem; by replacing impacts with ecosystem services the EBM-DPSER model incorporates not only negative, but also positive changes in the ecosystem. Responses occur as a result of changes in ecosystem services and include inter alia management actions directed at proactively altering human population or individual behavior and infrastructure to meet societal goals. The EBM-DPSER conceptual model was applied to the Florida Keys and Dry Tortugas marine ecosystem as a case study to illustrate how it can inform management decisions. This case study captures our system-level understanding and results in a more holistic representation of ecosystem and human society interactions, thus improving our ability to identify trade-offs. The EBM-DPSER model should be a useful operational tool for implementing EBM, in that it fully integrates our knowledge of all ecosystem components while focusing management attention upon those aspects of the ecosystem most important to human society and does so within a framework already familiar to resource managers.

Discretisation procedures for multi-physics phenomena

Procedures are described for solving the equations governing a multi-physics process. Finite volume techniques are used to discretise, using the same unstructured mesh, the equations of fluid flow, heat transfer with solidification, and solid deformation. These discretised equations are then solved in an integrated manner. The computational mechanics environment, PHYSICA, which facilitates the building of multi-physics models, is described. Comparisons between model predictions and experimental data are presented for the casting of metal components.