A review of multi-factor capacity expansion models for manufacturing plants:searching for a holistic decision aid

Investment in capacity expansion remains one of the most critical decisions for a manufacturing organisation with global production facilities. Multiple factors need to be considered making the decision process very complex. The purpose of this paper is to establish the state-of-the-art in multi-factor models for capacity expansion of manufacturing plants within a corporation. The research programme consisting of an extensive literature review and a structured assessment of the strengths and weaknesses of the current research is presented. The study found that there is a wealth of mathematical multi-factor models for evaluating capacity expansion decisions however no single contribution captures all the different facets of the problem.

Likelihood-Based Inference for Partially Observed Multi-Type Markov Branching Processes

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

PLUTO plus : Near-Complete Modeling of Affine Transformations for Parallelism and Locality

Affine transformations have proven to be very powerful for loop restructuring due to their ability to model a very wide range of transformations. A single multi-dimensional affine function can represent a long and complex sequence of simpler transformations. Existing affine transformation frameworks like the Pluto algorithm, that include a cost function for modern multicore architectures where coarse-grained parallelism and locality are crucial, consider only a sub-space of transformations to avoid a combinatorial explosion in finding the transformations. The ensuing practical tradeoffs lead to the exclusion of certain useful transformations, in particular, transformation compositions involving loop reversals and loop skewing by negative factors. In this paper, we propose an approach to address this limitation by modeling a much larger space of affine transformations in conjunction with the Pluto algorithm's cost function. We perform an experimental evaluation of both, the effect on compilation time, and performance of generated codes. The evaluation shows that our new framework, Pluto+, provides no degradation in performance in any of the Polybench benchmarks. For Lattice Boltzmann Method (LBM) codes with periodic boundary conditions, it provides a mean speedup of 1.33x over Pluto. We also show that Pluto+ does not increase compile times significantly. Experimental results on Polybench show that Pluto+ increases overall polyhedral source-to-source optimization time only by 15%. In cases where it improves execution time significantly, it increased polyhedral optimization time only by 2.04x.

Enhanced three-factor security protocol for consumer USB mass storage devices

The Universal Serial Bus (USB) is an extremely popular interface standard for computer peripheral connections and is widely used in consumer Mass Storage Devices (MSDs). While current consumer USB MSDs provide relatively high transmission speed and are convenient to carry, the use of USB MSDs has been prohibited in many commercial and everyday environments primarily due to security concerns. Security protocols have been previously proposed and a recent approach for the USB MSDs is to utilize multi-factor authentication. This paper proposes significant enhancements to the three-factor control protocol that now makes it secure under many types of attacks including the password guessing attack, the denial-of-service attack, and the replay attack. The proposed solution is presented with a rigorous security analysis and practical computational cost analysis to demonstrate the usefulness of this new security protocol for consumer USB MSDs.

On high Q(2) behavior of the pion form factor for transitions gamma*gamma -> pi(0) and gamma*gamma* -> pi(0) within the nonlocal quark-pion model

The behavior of the transition pion form factor for processes gamma (*)gamma --> pi(0) and gamma (*)gamma (*) --> pi(0) at large values of space-like photon momenta is estimated within the nonlocal covariant quark-pion model. It is shown that, in general, the coefficient of the leading asymptotic term depends dynamically on the ratio of the constituent quark mass and the average virtuality of quarks in the vacuum and kinematically on the ratio of photon virtualities. The kinematic dependence of the transition form factor allows us to obtain the relation between the pion light-cone distribution amplitude and the quark-pion vertex function. The dynamic dependence indicates that the transition form factor gamma (*)gamma -->, pi(0) at high momentum transfers is very sensitive to the nonlocality size of nonperturbative fluctuations in the QCD vacuum. (C) 2000 Elsevier B.V. B.V. All rights reserved.

Formation of Exchange Rates on the Russian Market: Dynamics and Modelling

Galina Kovaleva. The Formation of the Exchange Rate on the Russian Market: Dynamics and Modelling. The Russian financial market is fast becoming one of the major sectors of the Russian economy. Assets have been increasing steadily, while new market segments and new financial market instruments have emerged. Kovaleva attempted to isolate the factors influencing exchange rates, determine patterns in the dynamic changes to the rouble/dollar exchange rate, construct models of the processes, and on the basis of these activities make forecasts. She studied the significance of economic indicators influencing the rouble/dollar exchange rate at different times, and developed multi-factor econometric models. In order to reveal the inner structure of the financial indicators and to work out ex-post forecasts for different time intervals, she carried out a series of calculations with the aim of constructing trend-cyclical (TC) and harmonic models, and Box and Jenkins models. She found that: 1. The Russian financial market is dependant on the rouble/dollar exchange rate. Its dynamics are formed under the influence of the short-term state treasury notes and government bonds markets, interbank loans, the rouble/DM exchange rate, the inflation rate, and the DM/dollar exchange rate. The exchange rate is influenced by sales on the Moscow Interbank Currency Exchange and the mechanism of those sales. 2. The TC model makes it possible to conduct an in-depth study of the structure of the processes and to make forecasts of the dynamic changes to currency indicators. 3. The Russian market is increasingly influenced by the world currency market and its prospects are of crucial interest for the world financial community.

Teams leading teams: Examining the role of leadership in multi-team systems

A major challenge of modern teams lies in the coordination of the efforts not just of individuals within a team, but also of teams whose efforts are ultimately entwined with those of other teams. Despite this fact, much of the research on work teams fails to consider the external dependencies that exist in organizational teams and instead focuses on internal or within team processes. Multi-Team Systems Theory is used as a theoretical framework for understanding teams-of-teams organizational forms (Multi-Team Systems; MTS's); and leadership teams are proposed as one remedy that enable MTS members to dedicate needed resources to intra-team activities while ensuring effective synchronization of between-team activities. Two functions of leader teams were identified: strategy development and coordination facilitation; and a model was developed delineating the effects of the two leader roles on multi-team cognitions, processes, and performance.^ Three hundred eighty-four undergraduate psychology and business students participated in a laboratory simulation that modeled an MTS; each MTS was comprised of three, two-member teams each performing distinct but interdependent components of an F-22 battle simulation task. Two roles of leader teams supported in the literature were manipulated through training in a 2 (strategy training vs. control) x 2 (coordination training vs. control) design. Multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA) and mediated regression analysis were used to test the study's hypotheses. ^ Results indicate that both training manipulations produced differences in the effectiveness of the intended form of leader behavior. The enhanced leader strategy training resulted in more accurate (but not more similar) MTS mental models, better inter-team coordination, and higher levels of multi-team (but not component team) performance. Moreover, mental model accuracy fully mediated the relationship between leader strategy and inter-team coordination; and inter-team coordination fully mediated the effect of leader strategy on multi-team performance. Leader coordination training led to better inter-team coordination, but not to higher levels of either team or multi-team performance. Mediated Input-Process-Output (I-P-O) relationships were not supported with leader coordination; rather, leader coordination facilitation and inter-team coordination uniquely contributed to component team and multi-team level performance. The implications of these findings and future research directions are also discussed. ^

Gaussian Process Kernels for Cross-Spectrum Analysis in Electrophysiological Time Series

Multi-output Gaussian processes provide a convenient framework for multi-task problems. An illustrative and motivating example of a multi-task problem is multi-region electrophysiological time-series data, where experimentalists are interested in both power and phase coherence between channels. Recently, the spectral mixture (SM) kernel was proposed to model the spectral density of a single task in a Gaussian process framework. This work develops a novel covariance kernel for multiple outputs, called the cross-spectral mixture (CSM) kernel. This new, flexible kernel represents both the power and phase relationship between multiple observation channels. The expressive capabilities of the CSM kernel are demonstrated through implementation of 1) a Bayesian hidden Markov model, where the emission distribution is a multi-output Gaussian process with a CSM covariance kernel, and 2) a Gaussian process factor analysis model, where factor scores represent the utilization of cross-spectral neural circuits. Results are presented for measured multi-region electrophysiological data.

Evaluating stakeholder satisfaction during public participation in major infrastructure and construction projects : a fuzzy approach

Numerous different and sometimes discrepant interests can be affected, both positively and negatively, throughout the course of a major infrastructure and construction (MIC) project. Failing to address and meet the concerns and expectations of the stakeholders involved has resulted in many project failures. One way to address this issue is through a participatory approach to project decision making. Whether the participation mechanism is effective or not depends largely on the client/owner. This paper provides a means of systematically evaluating the effectiveness of the public participation exercise, or even the whole project, through the measurement of stakeholder satisfaction. Since the process of satisfaction measurement is complicated and uncertain, requiring approximate reasoning involving human intuition, a fuzzy approach is adopted. From this, a multi-factor hierarchical fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model is established to facilitate the evaluation of satisfaction in both single stakeholder group and overall MIC project stakeholders.

An envirogenomic signature is associated with risk of IBD-related surgery in a population-based Crohn’s Disease cohort

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Crohn's disease (CD) is an inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) caused by a combination of genetic, clinical, and environmental factors. Identification of CD patients at high risk of requiring surgery may assist clinicians to decide on a top-down or step-up treatment approach. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective case-control analysis of a population-based cohort of 503 CD patients. A regression-based data reduction approach was used to systematically analyse 63 genomic, clinical and environmental factors for association with IBD-related surgery as the primary outcome variable. RESULTS: A multi-factor model was identified that yielded the highest predictive accuracy for need for surgery. The factors included in the model were the NOD2 genotype (OR = 1.607, P = 2.3 × 10(-5)), having ever had perianal disease (OR = 2.847, P = 4 × 10(-6)), being post-diagnosis smokers (OR = 6.312, P = 7.4 × 10(-3)), being an ex-smoker at diagnosis (OR = 2.405, P = 1.1 × 10(-3)) and age (OR = 1.012, P = 4.4 × 10(-3)). Diagnostic testing for this multi-factor model produced an area under the curve of 0.681 (P = 1 × 10(-4)) and an odds ratio of 3.169, (95 % CI P = 1 × 10(-4)) which was higher than any factor considered independently. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this study require validation in other populations but represent a step forward in the development of more accurate prognostic tests for clinicians to prescribe the most optimal treatment approach for complicated CD patients.

Models for the estimation of life of stator insulation in large rotating machines

Epoxy resin bonded mica splitting is the insulation of choice for machine stators. However, this system is seen to be relatively weak under time varying mechanical stress, in particular the vibration causing delamination of mica and deboning of mica from the resin matrix. The situation is accentuated under the combined action of electrical, thermal and mechanical stress. Physical and probabilistic models for failure of such systems have been proposed by one of the authors of this paper earlier. This paper presents a pragmatic accelerated failure data acquisition and analytical paradigm under multi factor coupled stress, Electrical, Thermal. The parameters of the phenomenological model so developed are estimated based on sound statistical treatment of failure data.

A Gaussian network model study suggests that structural fluctuations are higher for inactive states than active states of protein kinases

We performed Gaussian network model based normal mode analysis of 3-dimensional structures of multiple active and inactive forms of protein kinases. In 14 different kinases, a more number of residues (1095) show higher structural fluctuations in inactive states than those in active states (525), suggesting that, in general, mobility of inactive states is higher than active states. This statistically significant difference is consistent with higher crystallographic B-factors and conformational energies for inactive than active states, suggesting lower stability of inactive forms. Only a small number of inactive conformations with the DFG motif in the ``in'' state were found to have fluctuation magnitudes comparable to the active conformation. Therefore our study reports for the first time, intrinsic higher structural fluctuation for almost all inactive conformations compared to the active forms. Regions with higher fluctuations in the inactive states are often localized to the aC-helix, aG-helix and activation loop which are involved in the regulation and/or in structural transitions between active and inactive states. Further analysis of 476 kinase structures involved in interactions with another domain/protein showed that many of the regions with higher inactive-state fluctuation correspond to contact interfaces. We also performed extensive GNM analysis of (i) insulin receptor kinase bound to another protein and (ii) holo and apo forms of active and inactive conformations followed by multi-factor analysis of variance. We conclude that binding of small molecules or other domains/proteins reduce the extent of fluctuation irrespective of active or inactive forms. Finally, we show that the perceived fluctuations serve as a useful input to predict the functional state of a kinase.

Theoretical simulation studies of pulsed field magnetisation of (RE)BCO bulk superconductors

The magnetisation of bulk high temperature superconductors (HTS), such as RE-Ba-Cu-O [(RE)BCO, where RE is a rare earth element or Y], by a practical technique is essential for their application in high field, permanent magnet-like devices. Research to-date into the pulsed field magnetisation (PFM) of these materials, however, has been limited generally to experimental techniques, with relatively little progress in the development of theoretical models. This is because not only is a multi-physics approach needed to take account of the heating of the samples but also the high electric fields generated are well above the regime in which there are reliable experimental results. This paper describes a framework of theoretical simulation using the finite element method (FEM) that is applicable to both single- and multi-pulse magnetisation processes of (RE)BCO bulk superconductors. The model incorporates the heat equation and provides a convenient way of determining the distribution of trapped field, current density and temperature change within a bulk superconductor at each stage of the magnetisation process. An example of the single-pulse magnetisation of a (RE)BCO bulk is described. Potentially, the model may serve as a cost-effective tool for the optimisation of the bulk geometry and the magnetisation profile in multi-pulse magnetisation processes. © 2010 IOP Publishing Ltd.

Energy transfer in molecular collisions

Two general, numerically exact, quantum mechanical methods have been developed for the calculation of energy transfer in molecular collisions. The methods do not treat electronic transitions because of the exchange symmetry of the electrons. All interactions between the atoms in the system are written as potential energies.

The first method is a matrix generalization of the invariant imbedding procedure, ^{17, 20} adapted for multi-channel collision processes. The second method is based on a direct integration of the matrix Schrödinger equation, with a re-orthogonalization transform applied during the integration.

Both methods have been applied to a collinear collision model for two diatoms, interacting via a repulsive exponential potential. Two major studies were performed. The first was to determine the energy dependence of the transition probabilities for an H₂ on the H₂ model system. Transitions are possible between translational energy and vibrational energy, and from vibrational modes of one H₂ to the other H₂. The second study was to determine the variation of vibrational energy transfer probability with differences in natural frequency of two diatoms similar to N₂.

Comparisons were made to previous approximate analytical solutions of this same problem. For translational to vibrational energy transfer, the previous approximations were not adequate. For vibrational to vibrational energy transfer of one vibrational quantum, the approximations were quite good.