Essays on Monetary Policy in Small Open Economies

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Asymmetric standing facilities: an unexploited monetary policy tool

This paper analyzes the role of standing facilities in the determination of the demand for reserves in the overnight money market. In particular, we study how the asymmetric nature of the deposit and lending facilities could be used as a powerful policy tool for the simultaneous control of prices and quantities in the market for daily funds.

Monetary integration and the cost of borrowing

With the beginning of the European Monetary Union (EMU), euro-area sovereign securities¿ adjusted spreads over Germany (corrected from the foreign exchange risk) experienced an increase that caused a lower than expected decline in borrowing costs. The objective of this paper is to study what explains that rising. In particular, if it took place a change in the price assigned by markets to domestic (credit risk and/or market liquidity) or to international risk factors. The empirical evidence supports the idea that a change in the market value of liquidity occurred with the EMU. International and default risk play a smaller role

Monetary integration and the cost of borrowing

With the beginning of the European Monetary Union (EMU), euro-area sovereign securities¿ adjusted spreads over Germany (corrected from the foreign exchange risk) experienced an increase that caused a lower than expected decline in borrowing costs. The objective of this paper is to study what explains that rising. In particular, if it took place a change in the price assigned by markets to domestic (credit risk and/or market liquidity) or to international risk factors. The empirical evidence supports the idea that a change in the market value of liquidity occurred with the EMU. International and default risk play a smaller role

Suomalaisen rahastosijoittajan profiili

Tutkimuksen tarkoituksena on luoda suomalaisen rahastosijoittajan profiili. Tutkimuskohteena ovat sijoittajien demografiset ominaisuudet, rahastosijoitukset sekä rahastotransaktiot. Aineistona on erään suomalaisen rahastoyhtiön henkilöasiakastietokanta vuosilta 1998 - 2003. Tutkimustulosten mukaan rahastosijoittaminen on yleistynyt Suomessa viime vuosien aikana. Erityisesti naisten määrä rahastosijoittajien joukossa on kasvussa. Rahastosijoitusten suuruus riippuu sijoittajan iästä sekä sukupuolesta. Mitä vanhempi sijoittaja on, sitä enemmän hän on sijoittanut rahastoihin. Lisäksi miehet sijoittavat suurempia summia kuin naiset. Viimeisten kolmen vuoden aikana suomalaisten rahastosijoittajien sijoituskohteiden painopiste on muuttunut riskillisemmistä rahastoista vähäriskisiin rahastoihin, erityisesti lyhyen koron rahastoihin. Osakemarkkinoiden mennyt kehitys vaikuttaa sijoituspäätöksiin. Rahastosijoittajien markkina-ajoituskyky on kuitenkin melko heikko. Miehet tekevät aktiivisemmin merkintöjä ja lunastuksia ja lisäksi reagoivat naisia nopeammin markkinoiden muutoksiin.

Conservation banking and the economization of nature : an institutional analysis

During the last decade, conservation banking mechanisms have emerged in the environmental discourse as new market instruments to promote biodiversity conservation. Compensation was already provided for in environmental law in many countries, as the last step of the mitigation hierarchy. The institutional arrangements developed in this context have been redefined and reshaped as market-based instruments (MBIs). As such, they are discursively disentangled from the complex legal-economic nexus they are part of. Monetary transactions are given prominence and tend to be presented as stand alone agreements, whereas they take place in the context of prescriptive regulations. The pro-market narrative featuring conservation banking systems as market-like arrangements as well as their denunciation as instances of nature commodification tend to obscure their actual characteristics. The purpose of this paper is to describe the latter, adopting an explicitly analytical stance on these complex institutional arrangements and their performative dimensions. Beyond the discourse supporting them and notwithstanding the diversity of national policies and regulatory frameworks for compensation, the constitutive force of these mechanisms probably lies in their ability to redefine control, power and the distribution of costs and in their impacts in terms of land use rather than in their efficiency.

EU-15 sovereign governments’ cost of borrowing after seven years of monetary union

Yield spreads over 10-year German government securities of the EU-15 countries converged dramatically in the seven years after the beginning of Monetary Integration. In this paper, we investigate the relative influence of systemic and idiosyncratic risk factors on their behaviour. Our conclusions suggest that in EMU-countries the relative importance of domestic risk factors (both credit and liquidity risk factors) is higher than that of international factors, which appear to play a secondary but significant role in non-EMU countries.

The determination of EONIA rate: The impact of the financial crisis and the effects of the changes in the monetary policy implementation framework

EONIA is a market based overnight interest rate, whose role as the starting point of the yield curve makes it critical from the perspective of the implementation of European Central Bank´s common monetary policy in the euro area. The financial crisis that started in 2007 had a large impact on the determination mechanism of this interest rate, which is considered as the central bank´s operational target. This thesis examines the monetary policy implementation framework of the European Central Bank and changes made to it. Furthermore, we discuss the development of the recent turmoil in the money market. EONIA rate is modelled by means of a regression equation using variables related to liquidity conditions, refinancing need, auction results and calendar effects. Conditional volatility is captured by an EGARCH model, and autocorrelation is taken into account by employing an autoregressive structure. The results highlight how the tensions in the initial stage of the market turmoil were successfully countered by ECB´s liquidity policy. The subsequent response of EONIA to liquidity conditions under the full allotment liquidity provision procedure adopted after the demise of Lehman Brothers is also established. A clear distinction in the behavior of the interest rate between the sub-periods was evident. In the light of the results obtained, some of the challenges posed by the exit-strategy implementation will be addressed.

Dynamic Performance Evaluation of Canadian Fixed-Income Funds using Markov Regime Switching Models

This thesis examines the performance of Canadian fixed-income mutual funds in the context of an unobservable market factor that affects mutual fund returns. We use various selection and timing models augmented with univariate and multivariate regime-switching structures. These models assume a joint distribution of an unobservable latent variable and fund returns. The fund sample comprises six Canadian value-weighted portfolios with different investing objectives from 1980 to 2011. These are the Canadian fixed-income funds, the Canadian inflation protected fixed-income funds, the Canadian long-term fixed-income funds, the Canadian money market funds, the Canadian short-term fixed-income funds and the high yield fixed-income funds. We find strong evidence that more than one state variable is necessary to explain the dynamics of the returns on Canadian fixed-income funds. For instance, Canadian fixed-income funds clearly show that there are two regimes that can be identified with a turning point during the mid-eighties. This structural break corresponds to an increase in the Canadian bond index from its low values in the early 1980s to its current high values. Other fixed-income funds results show latent state variables that mimic the behaviour of the general economic activity. Generally, we report that Canadian bond fund alphas are negative. In other words, fund managers do not add value through their selection abilities. We find evidence that Canadian fixed-income fund portfolio managers are successful market timers who shift portfolio weights between risky and riskless financial assets according to expected market conditions. Conversely, Canadian inflation protected funds, Canadian long-term fixed-income funds and Canadian money market funds have no market timing ability. We conclude that these managers generally do not have positive performance by actively managing their portfolios. We also report that the Canadian fixed-income fund portfolios perform asymmetrically under different economic regimes. In particular, these portfolio managers demonstrate poorer selection skills during recessions. Finally, we demonstrate that the multivariate regime-switching model is superior to univariate models given the dynamic market conditions and the correlation between fund portfolios.

Teoría y práctica de la diplomacia de celebridades : origen, desarrollo y límites de un concepto

Recientemente el mundo ha sido testigo de como las celebridades del espectáculo aparecen en los medios de comunicación comentando sobre asuntos políticos y humanitarios, el motivo de dichas apariciones es que cada día los famosos están interviniendo en temas internacionales de orden político y diplomático en un esfuerzo por solucionar algunas de las más graves crisis a las que se enfrenta el mundo en las últimas dos décadas, este fenómeno es conocido como Diplomacia de celebridades. El presente es un análisis acerca de este concepto en cuanto a su origen, desarrollo y alcance, apartir de la óptica del poder blando y ciertas condiciones que permiten la existencia del fenómeno, tales como el avance de las tecnologías digitales y de comunicación, fama de alcance global y nuevos espacios y actores en el ejercicio de las Relaciones Internacionales. La hipótesis sostiene que los famosos realizan una actividad no oficial y utilizan elementos como el poder blando, el dinero y los medios de comunicación para realizarla, tal y como lo haría una ONG. Ellos se identifican con una causa o un tema y utilizan los medios de comunicación como infraestructura para adentrarse en los escenarios de política internacional y promoverla a nivel de gobiernos y opinión pública. Usualmente los emprendimientos sociales y políticos de las celebridades suelen ser efectivos, sin embargo se enfrentan a campos donde su inexperiencia puede llevarlos al fracaso, la falta de comprensión de situaciones muy complejas puede considerarse otra limitante a la que se enfrentan los famosos, puesto que su mensaje o sus esfuerzos se distorsionan al no conocer los matices de una situación y de esta manera generar más perjuicios que beneficios.

Contagion in financial networks: a network theory and agent-based approaches to modeling the spread of risk in financial systems

Esta dissertação estuda a propagação de crises sobre o sistema financeiro. Mais especi- ficamente, busca-se desenvolver modelos que permitam simular como um determinado choque econômico atinge determinados agentes do sistema financeiro e apartir dele se propagam, transformando-se em um problema sistêmico. A dissertação é dividida em dois capítulos,além da introdução. O primeiro capítulo desenvolve um modelo de propa- gação de crises em fundos de investimento baseado em ciência das redes.Combinando dois modelos de propagação em redes financeiras, um simulando a propagação de perdas em redes bipartites de ativos e agentes financeiros e o outro simulando a propagação de perdas em uma rede de investimentos diretos em quotas de outros agentes, desenvolve-se um algoritmo para simular a propagação de perdas através de ambos os mecanismos e utiliza-se este algoritmo para simular uma crise no mercado brasileiro de fundos de investimento. No capítulo 2,desenvolve-se um modelo de simulação baseado em agentes, com agentes financeiros, para simular propagação de um choque que afeta o mercado de operações compromissadas.Criamos também um mercado artificial composto por bancos, hedge funds e fundos de curto prazo e simulamos a propagação de um choque de liquidez sobre um ativo de risco securitizando utilizado para colateralizar operações compromissadas dos bancos.

Dinâmica de correlações no mercado financeiro Bovespa&BMF

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Verificação e análise dos fatos estilizados no mercado de ações brasileiro

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Previsão de séries temporais financeiras por meio de redes neurais dinâmicas e processos de transformação de dados: uma abordagem empírico-comparativa

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)