A single-column model ensemble approach applied to the TWP-ICE experiment

Single-column models (SCM) are useful test beds for investigating the parameterization schemes of numerical weather prediction and climate models. The usefulness of SCM simulations are limited, however, by the accuracy of the best estimate large-scale observations prescribed. Errors estimating the observations will result in uncertainty in modeled simulations. One method to address the modeled uncertainty is to simulate an ensemble where the ensemble members span observational uncertainty. This study first derives an ensemble of large-scale data for the Tropical Warm Pool International Cloud Experiment (TWP-ICE) based on an estimate of a possible source of error in the best estimate product. These data are then used to carry out simulations with 11 SCM and two cloud-resolving models (CRM). Best estimate simulations are also performed. All models show that moisture-related variables are close to observations and there are limited differences between the best estimate and ensemble mean values. The models, however, show different sensitivities to changes in the forcing particularly when weakly forced. The ensemble simulations highlight important differences in the surface evaporation term of the moisture budget between the SCM and CRM. Differences are also apparent between the models in the ensemble mean vertical structure of cloud variables, while for each model, cloud properties are relatively insensitive to forcing. The ensemble is further used to investigate cloud variables and precipitation and identifies differences between CRM and SCM particularly for relationships involving ice. This study highlights the additional analysis that can be performed using ensemble simulations and hence enables a more complete model investigation compared to using the more traditional single best estimate simulation only.

Iodine(III)-promoted ring expansion of 1-vinylcycloalkanol derivatives: A metal-free approach toward seven-membered rings

A versatile and metal-free approach for the synthesis of molecules bearing seven- and eight-membered rings is described. The strategy is based on the ring expansion of 1-vinylcycloalkanols (or the corresponding silyl or methyl ether) mediated by the hypervalent iodine reagent HTIB (Phl(OH)OTs). The reaction condition can be easily adjusted to give seven-membered rings bearing different functional groups. A route to medium-ring lactones was also developed.

Improving methods in gap ecology: Revisiting size and shape distributions using a model selection approach

Questions: We assess gap size and shape distributions, two important descriptors of the forest disturbance regime, by asking: which statistical model best describes gap size distribution; can simple geometric forms adequately describe gap shape; does gap size or shape vary with forest type, gap age or the method used for gap delimitation; and how similar are the studied forests and other tropical and temperate forests? Location: Southeastern Atlantic Forest, Brazil. Methods: Analysing over 150 gaps in two distinct forest types (seasonal and rain forests), a model selection framework was used to select appropriate probability distributions and functions to describe gap size and gap shape. The first was described using univariate probability distributions, whereas the latter was assessed based on the gap area-perimeter relationship. Comparisons of gap size and shape between sites, as well as size and age classes were then made based on the likelihood of models having different assumptions for the values of their parameters. Results: The log-normal distribution was the best descriptor of gap size distribution, independently of the forest type or gap delimitation method. Because gaps became more irregular as they increased in size, all geometric forms (triangle, rectangle and ellipse) were poor descriptors of gap shape. Only when small and large gaps (> 100 or 400m2 depending on the delimitation method) were treated separately did the rectangle and isosceles triangle become accurate predictors of gap shape. Ellipsoidal shapes were poor descriptors. At both sites, gaps were at least 50% longer than they were wide, a finding with important implications for gap microclimate (e.g. light entrance regime) and, consequently, for gap regeneration. Conclusions: In addition to more appropriate descriptions of gap size and shape, the model selection framework used here efficiently provided a means by which to compare the patterns of two different types of forest. With this framework we were able to recommend the log-normal parameters μ and σ for future comparisons of gap size distribution, and to propose possible mechanisms related to random rates of gap expansion and closure. We also showed that gap shape varied highly and that no single geometric form was able to predict the shape of all gaps, the ellipse in particular should no longer be used as a standard gap shape. © 2012 International Association for Vegetation Science.

A Model-Based Approach for Making Ecological Inference from Distance Sampling Data

We consider a fully model-based approach for the analysis of distance sampling data. Distance sampling has been widely used to estimate abundance (or density) of animals or plants in a spatially explicit study area. There is, however, no readily available method of making statistical inference on the relationships between abundance and environmental covariates. Spatial Poisson process likelihoods can be used to simultaneously estimate detection and intensity parameters by modeling distance sampling data as a thinned spatial point process. A model-based spatial approach to distance sampling data has three main benefits: it allows complex and opportunistic transect designs to be employed, it allows estimation of abundance in small subregions, and it provides a framework to assess the effects of habitat or experimental manipulation on density. We demonstrate the model-based methodology with a small simulation study and analysis of the Dubbo weed data set. In addition, a simple ad hoc method for handling overdispersion is also proposed. The simulation study showed that the model-based approach compared favorably to conventional distance sampling methods for abundance estimation. In addition, the overdispersion correction performed adequately when the number of transects was high. Analysis of the Dubbo data set indicated a transect effect on abundance via Akaike’s information criterion model selection. Further goodness-of-fit analysis, however, indicated some potential confounding of intensity with the detection function.

A Model-Based Approach for Small-Signal Stability Assessment of Unbalanced Power Systems

In this paper, a modeling technique for small-signal stability assessment of unbalanced power systems is presented. Since power distribution systems are inherently unbalanced, due to its lines and loads characteristics, and the penetration of distributed generation into these systems is increasing nowadays, such a tool is needed in order to ensure a secure and reliable operation of these systems. The main contribution of this paper is the development of a phasor-based model for the study of dynamic phenomena in unbalanced power systems. Using an assumption on the net torque of the generator, it is possible to precisely define an equilibrium point for the phasor model of the system, thus enabling its linearization around this point, and, consequently, its eigenvalue/eigenvector analysis for small-signal stability assessment. The modeling technique presented here was compared to the dynamic behavior observed in ATP simulations and the results show that, for the generator and controller models used, the proposed modeling approach is adequate and yields reliable and precise results.

Multidimensional Measures of Firm Competitiveness: a Model-Based Approach

The concept of competitiveness, for a long time considered as strictly connected to economic and financial performances, evolved, above all in recent years, toward new, wider interpretations disclosing its multidimensional nature. The shift to a multidimensional view of the phenomenon has excited an intense debate involving theoretical reflections on the features characterizing it, as well as methodological considerations on its assessment and measurement. The present research has a twofold objective: going in depth with the study of tangible and intangible aspect characterizing multidimensional competitive phenomena by assuming a micro-level point of view, and measuring competitiveness through a model-based approach. Specifically, we propose a non-parametric approach to Structural Equation Models techniques for the computation of multidimensional composite measures. Structural Equation Models tools will be used for the development of the empirical application on the italian case: a model based micro-level competitiveness indicator for the measurement of the phenomenon on a large sample of Italian small and medium enterprises will be constructed.

Generating multimedia presentations that summarize the behavior of dynamic systems using a model-based approach

This article describes a knowledge-based method for generating multimedia descriptions that summarize the behavior of dynamic systems. We designed this method for users who monitor the behavior of a dynamic system with the help of sensor networks and make decisions according to prefixed management goals. Our method generates presentations using different modes such as text in natural language, 2D graphics and 3D animations. The method uses a qualitative representation of the dynamic system based on hierarchies of components and causal influences. The method includes an abstraction generator that uses the system representation to find and aggregate relevant data at an appropriate level of abstraction. In addition, the method includes a hierarchical planner to generate a presentation using a model with dis- course patterns. Our method provides an efficient and flexible solution to generate concise and adapted multimedia presentations that summarize thousands of time series. It is general to be adapted to differ- ent dynamic systems with acceptable knowledge acquisition effort by reusing and adapting intuitive rep- resentations. We validated our method and evaluated its practical utility by developing several models for an application that worked in continuous real time operation for more than 1 year, summarizing sen- sor data of a national hydrologic information system in Spain.

A model-driven approach to teaching concurrency

We present an undergraduate course on concurrent programming where formal models are used in different stages of the learning process. The main practical difference with other approaches lies in the fact that the ability to develop correct concurrent software relies on a systematic transformation of formal models of inter-process interaction (so called shared resources), rather than on the specific constructs of some programming language. Using a resource-centric rather than a language-centric approach has some benefits for both teachers and students. Besides the obvious advantage of being independent of the programming language, the models help in the early validation of concurrent software design, provide students and teachers with a lingua franca that greatly simplifies communication at the classroom and during supervision, and help in the automatic generation of tests for the practical assignments. This method has been in use, with slight variations, for some 15 years, surviving changes in the programming language and course length. In this article, we describe the components and structure of the current incarnation of the course?which uses Java as target language?and some tools used to support our method. We provide a detailed description of the different outcomes that the model-driven approach delivers (validation of the initial design, automatic generation of tests, and mechanical generation of code) from a teaching perspective. A critical discussion on the perceived advantages and risks of our approach follows, including some proposals on how these risks can be minimized. We include a statistical analysis to show that our method has a positive impact in the student ability to understand concurrency and to generate correct code.

A proposal for a model-based approach for adapting software configuration to runtime environments

Las metodologías de desarrollo ágiles han sufrido un gran auge en entornos industriales durante los últimos años debido a la rapidez y fiabilidad de los procesos de desarrollo que proponen. La filosofía DevOps y específicamente las metodologías derivadas de ella como Continuous Delivery o Continuous Deployment promueven la gestión completamente automatizada del ciclo de vida de las aplicaciones, desde el código fuente a las aplicaciones ejecutándose en entornos de producción. La automatización se ve como un medio para producir procesos repetibles, fiables y rápidos. Sin embargo, no todas las partes de las metodologías Continuous están completamente automatizadas. En particular, la gestión de la configuración de los parámetros de ejecución es un problema que ha sido acrecentado por la elasticidad y escalabilidad que proporcionan las tecnologías de computación en la nube. La mayoría de las herramientas de despliegue actuales pueden automatizar el despliegue de la configuración de parámetros de ejecución, pero no ofrecen soporte a la hora de fijar esos parámetros o de validar los ficheros que despliegan, principalmente debido al gran abanico de opciones de configuración y el hecho de que el valor de muchos de esos parámetros es fijado en base a preferencias expresadas por el usuario. Esto hecho hace que pueda parecer que cualquier solución al problema debe estar ajustada a una aplicación específica en lugar de ofrecer una solución general. Con el objetivo de solucionar este problema, propongo un modelo de configuración que puede ser inferido a partir de instancias de configuración existentes y que puede reflejar las preferencias de los usuarios para ser usado para facilitar los procesos de configuración. El modelo de configuración puede ser usado como la base de un proceso de configuración interactivo capaz de guiar a un operador humano a través de la configuración de una aplicación para su despliegue en un entorno determinado o para detectar cambios de configuración automáticamente y producir una configuración válida que se ajuste a esos cambios. Además, el modelo de configuración debería ser gestionado como si se tratase de cualquier otro artefacto software y debería ser incorporado a las prácticas de gestión habituales. Por eso también propongo un modelo de gestión de servicios que incluya información relativa a la configuración de parámetros de ejecución y que además es capaz de describir y gestionar propuestas arquitectónicas actuales tales como los arquitecturas de microservicios. ABSTRACT Agile development methodologies have risen in popularity within the industry in recent years due to the speed and reliability of the processes they propose. The DevOps philosophy and specifically the methodologies derived from it such as Continuous Delivery and Continuous Deployment push for a totally automated management of the application lifecycle, from the source code to the software running in production environment. Automation in this regard is used as a means to produce repeatable, reliable and fast processes. However, not all parts of the Continuous methodologies are completely automatized. In particular, management of runtime parameter configuration is a problem that has increased its impact in deployment process due to the scalability and elasticity provided by cloud technologies. Most deployment tools nowadays can automate the deployment of runtime parameter configuration, but they offer no support for parameter setting o configuration validation, as the range of different configuration options and the fact that the value of many of those parameters is based on user preference seems to imply that any solution to the problem will have to be tailored to a specific application. With the aim to solve this problem I propose a configuration model that can be inferred from existing configurations and reflect user preferences in order to ease the configuration process. The configuration model can be used as the base of an interactive configuration process capable of guiding a human operator through the configuration of an application for its deployment in a specific environment or to automatically detect configuration changes and produce valid runtime parameter configurations that take into account those changes. Additionally, the configuration model should be managed as any other software artefact and should be incorporated into current management practices. I also propose a service management model that includes the configuration information and that is able to describe and manage current architectural practices such as the microservices architecture.

A model-based approach for assessing in vivo combination therapy interactions

We present an approach for evaluating the efficacy of combination antitumor agent schedules that accounts for order and timing of drug administration. Our model-based approach compares in vivo tumor volume data over a time course and offers a quantitative definition for additivity of drug effects, relative to which synergism and antagonism are interpreted. We begin by fitting data from individual mice receiving at most one drug to a differential equation tumor growth/drug effect model and combine individual parameter estimates to obtain population statistics. Using two null hypotheses: (i) combination therapy is consistent with additivity or (ii) combination therapy is equivalent to treating with the more effective single agent alone, we compute predicted tumor growth trajectories and their distribution for combination treated animals. We illustrate this approach by comparing entire observed and expected tumor volume trajectories for a data set in which HER-2/neu-overexpressing MCF-7 human breast cancer xenografts are treated with a humanized, anti-HER-2 monoclonal antibody (rhuMAb HER-2), doxorubicin, or one of five proposed combination therapy schedules.