Working with 'housing variance' to model urban growth futures with inner metropolitan Melbourne

Continued population growth in Melbourne over the past decade has led to the development of a range of strategies and policies by State and Local levels of government to set an agenda for a more sustainable form of urban development. As the Victorian State government moves towards the development of 'Plan Melbourne', a new metropolitan planning strategy currently being prepared to take Melbourne forward to 2050, the following paper addresses the issue of how new residential built form will impact on and be accommodated in existing Inner Melbourne activity centres. Working with the prospect of establishing a more compact city in order to meet an inner city target of 90,000 new dwellings (Inner Metropolitan Action Plan - IMAP Strategy 5), the paper presents a 'Housing Variance Model' based on household structure and dwelling type. As capacity is progressively altered through a range of built form permutations, the research attempts to assess the impact on the urban morphology of a case study of four Major Activity Centres in the municipality of Port Phillip.

Advantages and Applications of Transforming Empirical Model Input Space with Dimensional Models

Model-based calibration of steady-state engine operation is commonly performed with highly parameterized empirical models that are accurate but not very robust, particularly when predicting highly nonlinear responses such as diesel smoke emissions. To address this problem, and to boost the accuracy of more robust non-parametric methods to the same level, GT-Power was used to transform the empirical model input space into multiple input spaces that simplified the input-output relationship and improved the accuracy and robustness of smoke predictions made by three commonly used empirical modeling methods: Multivariate Regression, Neural Networks and the k-Nearest Neighbor method. The availability of multiple input spaces allowed the development of two committee techniques: a 'Simple Committee' technique that used averaged predictions from a set of 10 pre-selected input spaces chosen by the training data and the "Minimum Variance Committee" technique where the input spaces for each prediction were chosen on the basis of disagreement between the three modeling methods. This latter technique equalized the performance of the three modeling methods. The successively increasing improvements resulting from the use of a single best transformed input space (Best Combination Technique), Simple Committee Technique and Minimum Variance Committee Technique were verified with hypothesis testing. The transformed input spaces were also shown to improve outlier detection and to improve k-Nearest Neighbor performance when predicting dynamic emissions with steady-state training data. An unexpected finding was that the benefits of input space transformation were unaffected by changes in the hardware or the calibration of the underlying GT-Power model.

Design of self-turning controllers for two terminal HVDC link

This paper presents the design of self-tuning controllers for a two terminal HVDC link. The controllers are designed utilizing a novel discrete-time converter model based on multirate sampling. The nature of converter firing system necessitates the development of a two-step ahead self-tuning control strategy. A two terminal HVDC system study has been carried out to show the effectiveness of the control strategies proposed which include the design of minimum variance controller, pole assigned controller and PLQG controller. The coordinated control of a two terminal HVDC system has been established deriving the signal from inverter end current and voltage which has been estimated based on the measurements of rectifier end quantities only realized through the robust reduced order observer. A well known scaled down sample system data has been selected for studies and the controllers designed have been tested for worst conditions. The performance of self-tuning controllers has been evaluated through digital simulation.

On the benefits of equicorrelation for portfolio allocation

The importance of modelling correlation has long been recognised in the field of portfolio management, with largedimensional multivariate problems increasingly becoming the focus of research. This paper provides a straightforward and commonsense approach toward investigating a number of models used to generate forecasts of the correlation matrix for large-dimensional problems.We find evidence in favour of assuming equicorrelation across various portfolio sizes, particularly during times of crisis. During periods of market calm, however, the suitability of the constant conditional correlation model cannot be discounted, especially for large portfolios. A portfolio allocation problem is used to compare forecasting methods. The global minimum variance portfolio and Model Confidence Set are used to compare methods, while portfolio weight stability and relative economic value are also considered.

Estimation in a multiplicative mixed model involving a genetic relationship matrix.

Genetic models partitioning additive and non-additive genetic effects for populations tested in replicated multi-environment trials (METs) in a plant breeding program have recently been presented in the literature. For these data, the variance model involves the direct product of a large numerator relationship matrix A, and a complex structure for the genotype by environment interaction effects, generally of a factor analytic (FA) form. With MET data, we expect a high correlation in genotype rankings between environments, leading to non-positive definite covariance matrices. Estimation methods for reduced rank models have been derived for the FA formulation with independent genotypes, and we employ these estimation methods for the more complex case involving the numerator relationship matrix. We examine the performance of differing genetic models for MET data with an embedded pedigree structure, and consider the magnitude of the non-additive variance. The capacity of existing software packages to fit these complex models is largely due to the use of the sparse matrix methodology and the average information algorithm. Here, we present an extension to the standard formulation necessary for estimation with a factor analytic structure across multiple environments.

Self-tuning control of a class of multivariable non-linear systems

Self-tuning is applied to the minimum variance control of non-linear multivariable systems which can be characterized by a ' multivariable Hammerstein model '. It is also shown that such systems are not amenable to self-tuning control if control costing is to be included in the performance criterion.

CMB as a probe of new physics and old times

Cosmic birefringence (CB)---a rotation of photon-polarization plane in vacuum---is a generic signature of new scalar fields that could provide dark energy. Previously, WMAP observations excluded a uniform CB-rotation angle larger than a degree.

In this thesis, we develop a minimum-variance--estimator formalism for reconstructing direction-dependent rotation from full-sky CMB maps, and forecast more than an order-of-magnitude improvement in sensitivity with incoming Planck data and future satellite missions. Next, we perform the first analysis of WMAP-7 data to look for rotation-angle anisotropies and report null detection of the rotation-angle power-spectrum multipoles below L=512, constraining quadrupole amplitude of a scale-invariant power to less than one degree. We further explore the use of a cross-correlation between CMB temperature and the rotation for detecting the CB signal, for different quintessence models. We find that it may improve sensitivity in case of marginal detection, and provide an empirical handle for distinguishing details of new physics indicated by CB.

We then consider other parity-violating physics beyond standard models---in particular, a chiral inflationary-gravitational-wave background. We show that WMAP has no constraining power, while a cosmic-variance--limited experiment would be capable of detecting only a large parity violation. In case of a strong detection of EB/TB correlations, CB can be readily distinguished from chiral gravity waves.

We next adopt our CB analysis to investigate patchy screening of the CMB, driven by inhomogeneities during the Epoch of Reionization (EoR). We constrain a toy model of reionization with WMAP-7 data, and show that data from Planck should start approaching interesting portions of the EoR parameter space and can be used to exclude reionization tomographies with large ionized bubbles.

In light of the upcoming data from low-frequency radio observations of the redshifted 21-cm line from the EoR, we examine probability-distribution functions (PDFs) and difference PDFs of the simulated 21-cm brightness temperature, and discuss the information that can be recovered using these statistics. We find that PDFs are insensitive to details of small-scale physics, but highly sensitive to the properties of the ionizing sources and the size of ionized bubbles.

Finally, we discuss prospects for related future investigations.

TOPS (Task optimization in the presence of signal-dependent noise) model

This paper proposes a movement trajectory planning model, which is a maximum task achievement model in which signal-dependent noise is added to the movement command. In the proposed model, two optimization criteria are combined, maximum task achievement and minimum energy consumption. The proposed model has the feature that the end-point boundary conditions for position, velocity, and acceleration need not be prespecified. Consequently, the method can be applied not only to the simple point-to-point movement, but to any task. In the method in this paper, the hand trajectory is derived by a psychophysical experiment and a numerical experiment for the case in which the target is not stationary, but is a moving region. It is shown that the trajectory predicted from the minimum jerk model or the minimum torque change model differs considerably from the results of the psychophysical experiment. But the trajectory predicted from the maximum task achievement model shows good qualitative agreement with the hand trajectory obtained from the psychophysical experiment. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Neural network based control for synchronous generators

In this paper, a Radial Basis Function neural network based AVR is proposed. A control strategy which generates local linear models from a global neural model on-line is used to derive controller feedback gains based on the Generalised Minimum Variance technique. Testing is carried out on a micromachine system which enables evaluation of practical implementation of the scheme. Constraints imposed by gathering training data, computational load, and memory requirements for the training algorithm are addressed.

Performance assessment of cascade control loopswith non-Gaussian disturbances using entropy information

Cascade control is one of the routinely used control strategies in industrial processes because it can dramatically improve the performance of single-loop control, reducing both the maximum deviation and the integral error of the disturbance response. Currently, many control performance assessment methods of cascade control loops are developed based on the assumption that all the disturbances are subject to Gaussian distribution. However, in the practical condition, several disturbance sources occur in the manipulated variable or the upstream exhibits nonlinear behaviors. In this paper, a general and effective index of the performance assessment of the cascade control system subjected to the unknown disturbance distribution is proposed. Like the minimum variance control (MVC) design, the output variances of the primary and the secondary loops are decomposed into a cascade-invariant and a cascade-dependent term, but the estimated ARMA model for the cascade control loop based on the minimum entropy, instead of the minimum mean squares error, is developed for non-Gaussian disturbances. Unlike the MVC index, an innovative control performance index is given based on the information theory and the minimum entropy criterion. The index is informative and in agreement with the expected control knowledge. To elucidate wide applicability and effectiveness of the minimum entropy cascade control index, a simulation problem and a cascade control case of an oil refinery are applied. The comparison with MVC based cascade control is also included.

Relationship between åström control and the kalman linear regulator — Caines revisited

The relationship between minimum variance and minimum expected quadratic loss feedback controllers for linear univariate discrete-time stochastic systems is reviewed by taking the approach used by Caines. It is shown how the two methods can be regarded as providing identical control actions as long as a noise-free measurement state-space model is employed.

Implications of non-cylindrical flux ropes for magnetic cloud reconstruction techniques and the interpretation of double flux rope events

Magnetic clouds (MCs) are a subset of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) which exhibit signatures consistent with a magnetic flux rope structure. Techniques for reconstructing flux rope orientation from single-point in situ observations typically assume the flux rope is locally cylindrical, e.g., minimum variance analysis (MVA) and force-free flux rope (FFFR) fitting. In this study, we outline a non-cylindrical magnetic flux rope model, in which the flux rope radius and axial curvature can both vary along the length of the axis. This model is not necessarily intended to represent the global structure of MCs, but it can be used to quantify the error in MC reconstruction resulting from the cylindrical approximation. When the local flux rope axis is approximately perpendicular to the heliocentric radial direction, which is also the effective spacecraft trajectory through a magnetic cloud, the error in using cylindrical reconstruction methods is relatively small (≈ 10∘). However, as the local axis orientation becomes increasingly aligned with the radial direction, the spacecraft trajectory may pass close to the axis at two separate locations. This results in a magnetic field time series which deviates significantly from encounters with a force-free flux rope, and consequently the error in the axis orientation derived from cylindrical reconstructions can be as much as 90∘. Such two-axis encounters can result in an apparent ‘double flux rope’ signature in the magnetic field time series, sometimes observed in spacecraft data. Analysing each axis encounter independently produces reasonably accurate axis orientations with MVA, but larger errors with FFFR fitting.

Methods to verify parameter equality in nonlinear regression models

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Optimal mean-variance control for discrete-time linear systems with Markovian jumps and multiplicative noises

In this paper, we consider the stochastic optimal control problem of discrete-time linear systems subject to Markov jumps and multiplicative noises under two criteria. The first one is an unconstrained mean-variance trade-off performance criterion along the time, and the second one is a minimum variance criterion along the time with constraints on the expected output. We present explicit conditions for the existence of an optimal control strategy for the problems, generalizing previous results in the literature. We conclude the paper by presenting a numerical example of a multi-period portfolio selection problem with regime switching in which it is desired to minimize the sum of the variances of the portfolio along the time under the restriction of keeping the expected value of the portfolio greater than some minimum values specified by the investor. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Longitudinal familial analysis of blood pressure involving parametric (co)variance functions

Abstract Background For analyzing longitudinal familial data we adopted a log-linear form to incorporate heterogeneity in genetic variance components over the time, and additionally a serial correlation term in the genetic effects at different levels of ages. Due to the availability of multiple measures on the same individual, we permitted environmental correlations that may change across time. Results Systolic blood pressure from family members from the first and second cohort was used in the current analysis. Measures of subjects receiving hypertension treatment were set as censored values and they were corrected. An initial check of the variance and covariance functions proposed for analyzing longitudinal familial data, using empirical semi-variogram plots, indicated that the observed trait dispersion pattern follows the assumptions adopted. Conclusion The corrections for censored phenotypes based on ordinary linear models may be an appropriate simple model to correct the data, ensuring that the original variability in the data was retained. In addition, empirical semi-variogram plots are useful for diagnosis of the (co)variance model adopted.