Agenda power in Brazil's Câmara dos Deputados , 1989 to 1999

This paper examines the structure of agenda power in the Brazilian Câmara dos Deputados (Chamber of Deputies). Our main question concerns when consistent agenda control by a single majority coalition, as opposed to agenda control by shifting majorities, has emerged in the post-1988 Câmara. Consistent agenda control emerges routinely in parliamentary regimes: the government commands a majority in the assembly; the legislative agenda is negotiated among the governing parties, typically with each able to “veto” the placement of bills on the agenda. However, the Câmara faces an external executive, the president, with substantial formal powers to set its agenda. Consistent agenda control thus can emerge only if the president chooses to ally with a majority coalition in the assembly. If the president always chose to form such an alliance—a presidentially-led agenda cartel—then one would expect some consistently parliamentary patterns in Brazil: the appointment of legislative party leaders to the cabinet; the use of statutes rather than decrees to achieve policy goals; the avoidance of bills that would pass and split the governing coalition. We find that only the Cardoso presidency displays consistent evidence of such a presidentiallyled agenda cartel. In this sense, our argument differs from that of Figueiredo and Limongi (1999; 2000), who argue that presidents have consistently pursued a parliamentary mode of governance in Brazil. Yet it also differs from those who argue that presidents have consistently pursued a shifting-coalitions strategy. Our results suggest that presidents make a strategic choice, with much hinging on that choice.

Business cycles in emerging economies : the role of interest rates

This paper documents the empirical relation between the interest rates that emerging economies face in international capital markets and their business cycles. It shows that the patterns observed in the data can be interpreted as the equilibrium of a dynamic general equilibrium model of a small open economy, in which (i) firms have to pay for a fraction of the input bill before production takes place, and (ii) preferences generate a labor supply that is independent of the interest rate. In our sample, interest rates are strongly countercyclical, strongly positively correlated with net exports, and they lead the cycle. Output is very volatile and consumption is more volatile than output. The sample includes data for Argentina during 1983-2000 and for four other large emerging economies, Brazil, Mexico, Korea, and Philippines, during 1994-2000. The model is calibrated to Argentina’s economy for the period 1983-1999. When the model is fed with actual US interest rates and the actual default spreads of Argentine sovereign interest rates, interest rates alone can explain forty percent of output fluctuations. When simulated technology shocks are added to the model, it can account for the main empirical regularities of Argentina’s economy during the period. A 1% increase in country risk causes a contemporaneous fall in output of 0.5 ’subsequent recovery. An increase in US rates causes output to fall by the same on impact and by almost 2% two years after the shock. The asymetry in the effect of shocks to US rates and country risk is due to the fact that US interest rates are more persistent than country risk and that there is a significant spillover effect from US interest rates to country risk.

A nova regra eleitoral que põe medo em boa parte dos partidos

Pesquisador da DAPP, Luis Felipe da Graça, comenta a resolução do Tribunal Superior Eleitoral que obriga partidos a terem diretório municipal constituído nas cidades onde pretendem lançar candidato a prefeito

Mercado de trabalho, ocupações e rendimentos: a Região Metropolitana de Natal na década de 1990

The aim of this study is the labour market at Natal Metropolitan Region with emphasis in occupations and incomes that took place at the nineties. The definition of its chronological boundaries passed by verification of existence of evident socio-spatial impacts for output, occupation and income in national economy, with rebounds in all national territory, conditioned by institutional and socio-economical transformations which marked Brazilian insertion to capital flows and commodities globalization movement that took place at the cited decade. It has been shown that such impacts did not distributed themselves equally between diverse spatial levels (great regions, federate unities, municipalities) because of historical specificities in each place in terms of output structures and organization of distinct social agents. Having as its basis the Marxist perspective, it tackled theoretically occupations and incomes, transformations in labour universe occurred at world level, mainly in most urbanized areas, and following that to focus changes occurred in Brazilian society related to the search for competitive insertion in global economy during the period regarded. Special attention was gave to Natal Metropolitan Region, because it was historically a concentration area for investments, productive structure, people, occupations and incomes generated/appropriated in Rio Grande do Norte State. The basic data sources for research were the demographic Census (micro data) made by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE) intending to present the structure and the labour market dynamics, having as basis: 1) traditional indicators about labour market; 2) sectors of economic activities and 3) social positions and classes segments. One of the purposes is the demonstration that occupations and incomes keep relation with the restructuring which occurred in each specific sector during the period. Other purpose is to make explicit the factors which bear the participation of distinct segments in production or service execution that make possible the different participation in income distribution. Results are revealing the increasin precariousness in labour market, enlargement of occupations in tertiary sector and greater concentration of average incomes in the social segments which were owners of the greatest capital allowances between residents in Natal Metropolitan Region during the nineties

Do coronelismo ao neo-coronelismo: um estudo sobre a ascensão, a queda e o ressurgimento de Antônio Lorenzetti Filho

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

A crítica da elite letrada à incorporação do homem-massa na Argentina na década de 1940: a Revista Sur em confronto com o Peronismo

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Entre a nova república e as velhas autonomias: as relações civis-militares nos governos FHC e LULA (1996-2008)

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Da montanha ao quartel: atuação e influência do Exército Popular Sandinista na Nicarágua

Pós-graduação em História - FCHS

Em busca do Império: a trajetória intelectual e política de Eduardo Prado

Pós-graduação em História - FCHS

Política e democracia em Steban Echeverría (1830-1851)

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)