Bioclimatic constraints to Andean cat distribution: a modelling application for rare species

AimTo identify the bioclimatic niche of the endangered Andean cat (Leopardus jacobita), one of the rarest and least known felids in the world, by developing a species distribution model.LocationSouth America, High Andes and Patagonian steppe. Peru, Bolivia, Chile, Argentina.MethodsWe used 108 Andean cat records to build the models, and 27 to test them, applying the Maxent algorithm to sets of uncorrelated bioclimatic variables from global databases, including elevation. We based our biogeographical interpretations on the examination of the predicted geographic range, the modelled response curves and latitudinal variations in climatic variables associated with the locality data.ResultsSimple bioclimatic models for Andean cats were highly predictive with only 3-4 explanatory variables. The climatic niche of the species was defined by extreme diurnal variations in temperature, cold minimum and moderate maximum temperatures, and aridity, characteristic not only of the Andean highlands but also of the Patagonian steppe. Argentina had the highest representation of suitable climates, and Chile the lowest. The most favourable conditions were centrally located and spanned across international boundaries. Discontinuities in suitable climatic conditions coincided with three biogeographical barriers associated with climatic or topographic transitions.Main conclusionsSimple bioclimatic models can produce useful predictions of suitable climatic conditions for rare species, including major biogeographical constraints. In our study case, these constraints are also known to affect the distribution of other Andean species and the genetic structure of Andean cat populations. We recommend surveys of areas with suitable climates and no Andean cat records, including the corridor connecting two core populations. The inclusion of landscape variables at finer scales, crucially the distribution of Andean cat prey, would contribute to refine our predictions for conservation applications.

Ecological niche models and patterns of richness and endemism of the southern Andean genus Eurymetopum (Coleoptera, Cleridae)

Eurymetopum is an Andean clerid genus with 22 species. We modeled the ecological niches of 19 species with Maxent and used them as potential distributional maps to identify patterns of richness and endemicity. All modeled species maps were overlapped in a single map in order to determine richness. We performed an optimality analysis with NDM/VNDM in a grid of 1º latitude-longitude in order to identify endemism. We found a highly rich area, located between 32º and 41º south latitude, where the richest pixels have 16 species. One area of endemism was identified, located in the Maule and Valdivian Forest biogeographic provinces, which extends also to the Santiago province of the Central Chilean subregion, and contains four endemic species (E. parallelum, E. prasinum, E. proteus, and E. viride), as well as 16 non-endemic species. The sympatry of these phylogenetically unrelated species might indicate ancient vicariance processes, followed by episodes of dispersal. Based on our results, we suggest a close relationship between these provinces, with the Maule representing a complex area.

Understanding the ecological niche to elucidate spatial strategies of the southernmost Tupinambis lizards

Understanding factors that shape ranges of species is central in evolutionary biology. Species distribution models have become important tools to test biogeographical, ecological and evolutionary hypotheses. Moreover, from an ecological and evolutionary perspective, these models help to elucidate the spatial strategies of species at a regional scale. We modelled species distributions of two phylogenetically, geographically and ecologically close Tupinambis species (Teiidae) that occupy the southernmost area of the genus distribution in South America. We hypothesized that similarities between these species might have induced spatial strategies at the species level, such as niche differentiation and divergence of distribution patterns at a regional scale. Using logistic regression and MaxEnt we obtained species distribution models that revealed interspecific differences in habitat requirements, such as environmental temperature, precipitation and altitude. Moreover, the models obtained suggest that although the ecological niches of Tupinambis merianae and T. rufescens are different, these species might co-occur in a large contact zone. We propose that niche plasticity could be the mechanism enabling their co-occurrence. Therefore, the approach used here allowed us to understand the spatial strategies of two Tupinambis lizards at a regional scale.

Predicting potential distribution of the jaguar (Panthera onca) in Mexico: identification of priority areas for conservation

Aim The jaguar, Panthera onca, is a species of global conservation concern. In Mexico, the northernmost part of its distribution range, its conservation status, is particularly critical, while its potential and actual distribution is poorly known. We propose an ensemble model (EM) of the potential distribution for the jaguar in Mexico and identify the priority areas for conservation.Location Mexico.Methods We generated our EM based on three presence-only methods (Ecological Niche Factor Analysis, Mahalanobis distance, Maxent) and considering environmental, biological and anthropogenic factors. We used this model to evaluate the efficacy of the existing Mexican protected areas (PAs), to evaluate the adequacy of the jaguar conservation units (JCUs) and to propose new areas that should be considered for conservation and management of the species in Mexico.Results Our results outline that 16% of Mexico (c. 312,000 km2) can be considered as suitable for the presence of the jaguar. Furthermore, 13% of the suitable areas are included in existing PAs and 14% are included in JCUs (Sanderson et al., 2002).Main conclusions Clearly much more should be carried out to establish a proactive conservation strategy. Based on our results, we propose here new jaguar conservation and management areas that are important for a nationwide conservation blueprint.

Effects of sample size on the performance of species distribution models

A wide range of modelling algorithms is used by ecologists, conservation practitioners, and others to predict species ranges from point locality data. Unfortunately, the amount of data available is limited for many taxa and regions, making it essential to quantify the sensitivity of these algorithms to sample size. This is the first study to address this need by rigorously evaluating a broad suite of algorithms with independent presence-absence data from multiple species and regions. We evaluated predictions from 12 algorithms for 46 species (from six different regions of the world) at three sample sizes (100, 30, and 10 records). We used data from natural history collections to run the models, and evaluated the quality of model predictions with area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). With decreasing sample size, model accuracy decreased and variability increased across species and between models. Novel modelling methods that incorporate both interactions between predictor variables and complex response shapes (i.e. GBM, MARS-INT, BRUTO) performed better than most methods at large sample sizes but not at the smallest sample sizes. Other algorithms were much less sensitive to sample size, including an algorithm based on maximum entropy (MAXENT) that had among the best predictive power across all sample sizes. Relative to other algorithms, a distance metric algorithm (DOMAIN) and a genetic algorithm (OM-GARP) had intermediate performance at the largest sample size and among the best performance at the lowest sample size. No algorithm predicted consistently well with small sample size (n < 30) and this should encourage highly conservative use of predictions based on small sample size and restrict their use to exploratory modelling.

Overcoming limitations of modelling rare species by using ensembles of small models

1. Species distribution models (SDMs) have become a standard tool in ecology and applied conservation biology. Modelling rare and threatened species is particularly important for conservation purposes. However, modelling rare species is difficult because the combination of few occurrences and many predictor variables easily leads to model overfitting. A new strategy using ensembles of small models was recently developed in an attempt to overcome this limitation of rare species modelling and has been tested successfully for only a single species so far. Here, we aim to test the approach more comprehensively on a large number of species including a transferability assessment. 2. For each species numerous small (here bivariate) models were calibrated, evaluated and averaged to an ensemble weighted by AUC scores. These 'ensembles of small models' (ESMs) were compared to standard Species Distribution Models (SDMs) using three commonly used modelling techniques (GLM, GBM, Maxent) and their ensemble prediction. We tested 107 rare and under-sampled plant species of conservation concern in Switzerland. 3. We show that ESMs performed significantly better than standard SDMs. The rarer the species, the more pronounced the effects were. ESMs were also superior to standard SDMs and their ensemble when they were independently evaluated using a transferability assessment. 4. By averaging simple small models to an ensemble, ESMs avoid overfitting without losing explanatory power through reducing the number of predictor variables. They further improve the reliability of species distribution models, especially for rare species, and thus help to overcome limitations of modelling rare species.

How to describe species richness patterns for bryophyte conservation?

A large amount of data for inconspicuous taxa is stored in natural history collections; however, this information is often neglected for biodiversity patterns studies. Here, we evaluate the performance of direct interpolation of museum collections data, equivalent to the traditional approach used in bryophyte conservation planning, and stacked species distribution models (S-SDMs) to produce reliable reconstructions of species richness patterns, given that differences between these methods have been insufficiently evaluated for inconspicuous taxa. Our objective was to contrast if species distribution models produce better inferences of diversity richness than simply selecting areas with the higher species numbers. As model species, we selected Iberian species of the genus Grimmia (Bryophyta), and we used four well-collected areas to compare and validate the following models: 1) four Maxent richness models, each generated without the data from one of the four areas, and a reference model created using all of the data and 2) four richness models obtained through direct spatial interpolation, each generated without the data from one area, and a reference model created with all of the data. The correlations between the partial and reference Maxent models were higher in all cases (0.45 to 0.99), whereas the correlations between the spatial interpolation models were negative and weak (-0.3 to -0.06). Our results demonstrate for the first time that S-SDMs offer a useful tool for identifying detailed richness patterns for inconspicuous taxa such as bryophytes and improving incomplete distributions by assessing the potential richness of under-surveyed areas, filling major gaps in the available data. In addition, the proposed strategy would enhance the value of the vast number of specimens housed in biological collections.

« Ce sont les fiez et les services estraiz des registres anciens du roy, l'an » 1326, compilation de documents des règnes de Philippe-Auguste, S. Louis, Philippe le Hardi, publiés, pour la plupart, dans le tome XXIII du Recueil des Historiens de France.

Contient : « Et premièrement de Normandie » ; « Les fiez de la baillie de Rouen » ; « Les fiez monseigneur de Prayaux » ; « Les fiez Baudri de Longchamp » ; « Les fiez de Saint Odoyn » ; « Les fiez de l'abbé de Jemeci » ; « Les fiez de Pavelli » ; « Les fiez Barthelemy Dogon. Et premièrement de Grantemont » ; « Les fiez movans de Britoil » ; « Les fiez des chevaliers Guillaume de Saqueville » ; « Les fiez de Erchamfray » ; « Les fiez de la terre de Molins » ; « Les fiez de Sainte Scolaste » ; « Les fiez du seigneur de Merle » ; « Les fiez des Alençonnays » ; « Les fiez dou douaire de dame Adelice de Roye » ; « La baillie Pierre de Tilly ou chi[e]f de la duchie » ; « Les fiez de l'abbé du Mont Saint Michiel » ; « Ceuls ci tienent des eschaites du roy » ; « Ceuls ci tienent de l'onneur de Monbray, qui est en la main du roy » ; « Ceuls ci tienent de l'onneur de Braose » ; « Ceuls ci tienent de Nonant ce que Garin de Glapion tint » ; « Ceuls ci tienent du fié de Sainte Scolaste ce que icelui Garin tint » ; « Ceuls ci tienent du fié de Mampichon ce que ledit Garin tint » ; « Ceuls ci tienent des fiés du conte de Cestre » ; « Item du conte de Cestre » ; « Ceus ci tienent du fié de Cleville » ; « La Chastellerie de Gisors. Les fiés de la baillie de monseigneur Guillaume de La Ville Thierry » ; La chastellerie de Vernon » ; « La chastellerie de Pacy » ; « La chastellerie de Maante » ; « La chastellerie de Breval » ; « La chastellerie de Meullent » ; « La chastellerie de Chaumont » ; « La chastellerie de Annet » ; « La chastellerie de Nogent » ; « La chastellerie de Pontoise » ; « Ce sont les fiez que Jehan de Gisors tient de nostre seigneur le roy » ; « Les fiez de Robert de Poissy » ; « Les fiez Gautier Tirel en Veuquessin » ; « Les fiez qui sont tenus de Guillaume de Milly et lesquiex tient du roy » ; « L'enqueste de la valeur des fiez de la chastellerie de Poissy, faite de Thomas Macé et Bernart de Poissy, par les seremens de chevaliers anciens et preudommes, l'an de grace » 1217 ; « Les fiez de la baillie Renart de la Ville Tierry » ; « La baillie de Bonneville, qui est du bailliage Jehan de La Porte. Ce sont les fiez qui sont tenuz de la baronnie de Kanquerville, qui est en la main de nostre sire le roy par escheoite de par monseigneur Hugues de Montfort » ; « Les fiez du Val de Rueil » ; « Les fiez de la baillie de Occimières » ; « Ce sont les fiez qui sont tenus de duchié en la baillie de Lisiues... Ce sont les fiez des escheoites » ; « Les fiez qui sont tenus de l'evesque de Bayeux en la baillie de Bonneville... Les fiez du val de Rouen... Ces choses en la baillie de Coustances » ; Cinq pièces du 24 juin 1224, du 15 juin 1246, du mois de « juignet » 1246, du 11 octobre 1245, de novembre 1245, concernant le service de l' « ost » dû au roi par les evêques de Normandie, la promesse faite par « Raymon, viconte de Touraine », de bailler quand il en sera requis tous ses châteaux et forteresses au roi, la promesse de Gaucher de Châtillon de rendre au roi son château de « Damfront » à son commandement, la promesse faite par « Morise de Credon » de bailler au roi ses châteaux et forteresses à son commandement, la promesse faite par « PHELIPPE SAVARY, seigneur de Montbason », de bailler au roi son château de Montbason à son commandement ; « La baillie monseigneur Gieffroy de La Chapelle » ; « Les fiez de Manneville » ; « Les fiez de Saint Richier » ; « Les fiez de Mortemer » ; « Les fiez du chambellanc de Tancarville et X. fiez de la duchié » ; « Les chevaliers qui tiennent de l'abbaye de Fescant » ; « Les fiez qui sont tenuz du roy à Saint Quantin » ; « Les fiez tenuz du roy à Peronne » ; « Les fiez de Crespy en Valois » ; « Les fiez de Calni » ; « Les fiez tenuz du roy à Ribemont » ; « Les fiez tenuz du roy à La Ferté » ; « Les fiez que Jehan de Neele tient du roy » ; « Les fiez de la chastellainie de Montdidier par les seremens des chevaliers » ; « Le fié que Adam de Manencort tient du roy » ; « Le fié Girart de Ceri, qu'il tient du roy » ; « Les fiez de Remy » ; « Les fiez de la baillie Estienne de Hautviller » ; « Les fiez de la baillie de Bourges » ; « Les fiez du roy à Bourges et entour Bourges » ; « Les fiez mouvans de Exoldun » ; « Les fiez de la baillie Adam Heron. Et premièrement de Meleun » ; « Les fiez monseigneur Guy et Pierre de Dijon, frères de Saint Guillaume » ; « Les fiez de la chastellerie de Montlehery » ; « Les fiez que Guillaume de Silli tient du roy en la chastellerie de La Ferté » ; Les fiefs de « la chastellerie de Beaumont » ; « Les chasteaux que Aymart de Poitier,... Hemeri de Rochechoart,... Eracle de Monlaour » tiennent du roi. Mention de la reconnaissance que fit la reine de Chypre le « jour de la S. Martin d'yver » 1234, que le roi lui avait payé 40 000 livres tournois pour le comté de Champagne, les fiefs de Blois, Chartres, Châteaudun, Sancerre et leurs appartenances ; Les noms de ceux qui firent hommage au roi en 1241, 1243, 1244, 1245, 1246, 1248, 1249, 1250, 1251, 1252, 1253, 1254, 1260, 1261, 1287 ; « Ce sont les nons de ceuls de la conté de Bourgoigne qui sont tenuz de faire homage au roy et service en ses guerres » ; « Ce sont ceus qui tienent du roy en fié france et delivre, en Auverne » ; « Homages fais à Thibaut, roy de Navarre, de Champagne et de Brie, conte palatin, du commencement de son royaume, l'an de grace 1256 et depuis : Fiés de Troyes,... des Ylles et de Chaource,... Bar sur Sainne,... Saint Florentin,... Villemor,... Mery,... Peantium,... Pons sur Sainne,... Nogent sur Saine,... Bray,... Monstoreul,... Joy,... Prouvins,... Coulombiers en Brie,... Meaux,... Bar seur Aube,... La Ferté sus Aube,... Montclari,... Chaumont en Bassegny,... Montigni en Basseigni,... Nongent en Basseigny,... Montroyal,... Les Estranges,... Chasteau Thierri,... feoda de Ulcheyo,... les fiez de Fimes et de Nuilly,... Chastillon sus Marne,... Esparnay,... les fiez de Marueil et de Voies aus Lous,... les fiez de Vertuz et de Moymer,... Sezanne,... Chantemelle,... Vitri,... les fiez de Suppe et de Saint Elier,... les fiez de Sainte Manehout,... Buissi et Passavant » ; « Ce fu extrait d'un rolle de la chambre des comptes qui estoit ainsi intitulés par dehors et ainsi signez 8 : Les chevaliers et escuiers et autres, qui doivent service au roy et qui vinrent en l'ost de Foes, et confesserent par leurs cedules les services si comme il sont ci escrips » : a. « Le duc de Bourgoingne amena avec soi VII chevaliers bannerez qui estoient eulz L. de chevaliers, et li duc avoit autres chevaliers... ». (Fol. 239 et 240.) b. « Les chevaliers de la prevosté de Paris, d'Estampes et d'iluec environ, qui doivent service au roy ». (Fol. 240 à 242.) c. « Les chevaliers de Normandi (sic). La baillie de Roen,... la baillie de Caen,... les chevaliers de la baillie de Cauz,... les chevaliers de la baillie de Coustantin,... la baillie de Gisors ». (Fol. 242 à 248.) d. « Les chevaliers de la seneschaucée de Poitou ». (Fol. 248 et 249.) e. « Les chevaliers de la seneschaucée de Xainctonge ». (Fol. 249 à 251.) f. « Thoulouse, Auvergne, Agen et plusieurs autres baillies et seneschaucées ». (Fol. 251 à 253) ; « En un autre role de la chambre des comptes, duquel le signe est tel : 5, a l'on trouvé que ceuz qui s'ensivent doivent service, et ne desclerent pas quel. Et furent semons à Chynon à l'endemain des octaves de Pasques, pour aler sur la conté de La Marche, l'an de grâce 1242 » ; « En un autre role de la chambre des comptes, duquel le signe est tel : 4, ay trouvé que l'an de grace 1253 furent amonetés à Yssodun, au samedi devant la Nativité Nostre-Dame, au service : le conte de Sansuerre,... Item en yceli role est contenu ceus qui furent cemons au service, au samedi après la Nativité Nostre Dame, à Marteaus... les chers des abbaies... les communes qui envoièrent sergens de pié » ; « Item j'ai trouvé en un autre role les nons des abbayes qui doivent charroy au roy toutes fois que le corps du roy va en guerre, en quelque lieu que ce soit » ; « Item en un autre role de la chambre des comptes, duquel le signe est tel : Q, ay trouvé que ce sunt les services de Normandie et ceux yci sunt qui le doivent... » ; « Item en quel manière les nobles sunt punis qui furent amonetés en l'ost de Foix ». Acte de « PHELIPPE LE HARDI » ; « Arrest » contre les barons d'Auvergne qui disaient que quand le roi comme seigneur d'Auvergne les « veut mener en ost », il doit payer tous leurs dépens ; « En un role de la chambre des » comptes, « duquel le signe est : 3, a esté trouvé que l'an 1236... ceuz qui s'ensivent furent amonetez à III. sepmaines de la Penthecoste, à S. Germain en Laye, au service » ; « Item en un livre à ez couvert de cuir vert que l'on ot de mestre Pierre La Reue, sont trouvez escris le[s] services et les rebriches qui s'ensivent : Ceus cy-dessous escrips sont tenus à faire au roy ost et chevauchiée pour raison de sa terre d'Agen et des appartenances d'outre Garonne » ; « Ce sunt les nons de ceux qui doivent sommiers au roy » ; « Ce sunt les nons de pluseurs personnes de diverses parties du royaume de France, qui sunt tenu (sic) de faire hommaige au roy, si comme il appert par leur lectres : Primo, Hues, conte de Sainct Pol,... Gauchier de Chastoillon,... Geffroy de Sergines,... Jehans, sire de Neelle,... Geffroy, sires d'Aspremont,... Pierre de Courtivi,... Jehan, conte de Roci,... Henris, sires de Soilly,... Henri d'Avangour,... Jehan, sires de Bailleul,... Robert de Bazoches,... Mahi, sires de Montmorenci,... Jehan, sires de Neelle, est homme lige du roy... Item cil qui s'ensivent sunt homme dudit Jehan de Neelle, et sunt tenu du roy de cest fié mesmes... Raimont, conte de Thoart,... Guillaume, mareschal, conte de Pembroc,... Gautiers de Avesnes, contes de Blois,... La communautez de la ville de Sarlat... Les consoilliers et les bourgois de Montferrant,... Eudes, sires de Bourbon, filz du duc de Bourgoinne,... Raymont, viconte de Tourenne,... » ; Hommes liges du roi « à rachat haut et bas, sens estage... »; seigneurs de La Roche sur Yon ; hommes liges du roi « pour cause de la contée de Poitiers... Ce sunt les hommaiges du roy pour cause du conté de Poitiers, pour raison de la chastellenie de Fontunac... Ce sunt les homaiges dehuz au roy pour cause de la conté de Poitiers, de la chastelenie de Niort... Ce sunt les hommaiges du roy pour cause de la contée de Poitiers, dehuz pour raison de la terre que messire Guiz de Rochefort fourfist, et pour raison de la terre conquestée suer le conte de La Marche... Hommaiges de la terre conquestée à Sançay suer le conte de La Marche,... Ci après s'ensivent les rentes et les yssues des terres qui sunt en l'onneur de sainct Maxent et environ ces lieux... Ce sunt les rentes et les yssues de Cherveux des terres conquestez suer le conte de La Marche... Ce sunt les rentes et les yssues des terres et des foresteries de Sancey et environ... Ce sunt les hommaiges du roy pour cause de la conté de Poitiers des terres fourfaites, et premièrement en la chastellerie de Sainct Sauvin... Ce sunt les hommaiges de Montmor... Ce sunt les hommaiges deus au roy pour cause du demaigne de la contée de Poitiers... »

Assessing range-wide habitat suitability for the Lesser Prairie-Chicken

Population declines of many wildlife species have been linked to habitat loss incurred through land-use change. Incorporation of conservation planning into development planning may mitigate these impacts. The threatened Lesser Prairie-Chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) is experiencing loss of native habitat and high levels of energy development across its multijurisdictional range. Our goal was to explore relationships of the species occurrence with landscape characteristics and anthropogenic effects influencing its distribution through evaluation of habitat suitability associated with one particular habitat usage, lekking. Lekking has been relatively well-surveyed, though not consistently, in all jurisdictions. All five states in which Lesser Prairie-Chickens occur cooperated in development of a Maxent habitat suitability model. We created two models, one with state as a factor and one without state. When state was included it was the most important predictor, followed by percent of land cover consisting of known or suspected used vegetation classes within a 5000 m area around a lek. Without state, land cover was the most important predictor of relative habitat suitability for leks. Among the anthropogenic predictors, landscape condition, a measure of human impact integrated across several factors, was most important, ranking third in importance without state. These results quantify the relative suitability of the landscape within the current occupied range of Lesser Prairie-Chickens. These models, combined with other landscape information, form the basis of a habitat assessment tool that can be used to guide siting of development projects and targeting of areas for conservation.

A phyloclimatic study of Cyclamen

Background: The impact of global climate change on plant distribution, speciation and extinction is of current concern. Examining species climatic preferences via bioclimatic niche modelling is a key tool to study this impact. There is an established link between bioclimatic niche models and phylogenetic diversification. A next step is to examine future distribution predictions from a phylogenetic perspective. We present such a study using Cyclamen (Myrsinaceae), a group which demonstrates morphological and phenological adaptations to its seasonal Mediterranean-type climate. How will the predicted climate change affect future distribution of this popular genus of garden plants? Results: We demonstrate phylogenetic structure for some climatic characteristics, and show that most Cyclamen have distinct climatic niches, with the exception of several wide-ranging, geographically expansive, species. We reconstruct climate preferences for hypothetical ancestral Cyclamen. The ancestral Cyclamen lineage has a preference for the seasonal Mediterranean climate characteristic of dry summers and wet winters. Future bioclimatic niches, based on BIOCLIM and Maxent models, are examined with reference to a future climate scenario for the 2050s. Over the next 50 years we predict a northward shift in the area of climatic suitability, with many areas of current distribution becoming climatically unsuitable. The area of climatic suitability for every Cyclamen species is predicted to decrease. For many species, there may be no areas with a suitable climate regardless of dispersal ability, these species are considered to be at high risk of extinction. This risk is examined from a phylogenetic perspective. Conclusion: Examining bioclimatic niches from a phylogenetic perspective permits novel interpretations of these models. In particular, reconstruction of ancestral niches can provide testable hypothesis about the historical development of lineages. In the future we can expect a northwards shift in climatic suitability for the genus Cyclamen. If this proves to be the case then dispersal is the best chance of survival, which seems highly unlikely for ant-dispersed Cyclamen. Human-assisted establishment of Cyclamen species well outside their native ranges offers hope and could provide the only means of dispersal to potentially suitable future environments. Even without human intervention the phylogenetic perspective demonstrates that major lineages could survive climate change even if many species are lost.

Can the Iberian floristic diversity withstand near-future climate change?

We assess how effectively the current network of protected areas (PAs) across the Iberian Peninsula will conserve plant diversity under near-future (2020) climate change. We computed 3267 MAXENT environmental niche models (ENMs) at 1-km spatial resolution for known Iberian plant species under two climate scenarios (1950-2000 baseline & 2020). To predict near-future species distributions across the network of Iberian and Balearics PAs, we combined projections of species’ ENMs with simulations of propagule dispersal by using six scenarios of annual dispersal rates (no dispersal, 0.1 km, 0.5 km, 1 km, 2 km and unlimited). Mined PA grid cell values for each species were then analyzed. We forecast 3% overall floristic diversity richness loss by 2020. The habitat of regionally extant species will contract on average by 13.14%. Niche movement exceeds 1 km per annum for 30% of extant species. While the southerly range margin of northern plant species retracts northward at 8.9 km per decade, overall niche movement is more easterly and westerly than northerly. There is little expansion of the northern range margin of southern plant species even under unlimited dispersal. Regardless of propagule dispersal rate, altitudinal niche movement of +25 m per decade is strongest for northern species. Pyrenees flora is most vulnerable to near-future climate change with many northern plant species responding by shifting their range westerly and easterly rather than northerly. Northern humid habitats will be particularly vulnerable to near-future climate change. Andalusian National Parks will become important southern biodiversity refuges. With limited human intervention (particularly in the Pyrenees), we conclude that floristic diversity in Iberian PAs should withstand near-future climate change.

Testing projected wild bee distributions in agricultural habitats: predictive power depends on species traits and habitat type

Species distribution models (SDM) are increasingly used to understand the factors that regulate variation in biodiversity patterns and to help plan conservation strategies. However, these models are rarely validated with independently collected data and it is unclear whether SDM performance is maintained across distinct habitats and for species with different functional traits. Highly mobile species, such as bees, can be particularly challenging to model. Here, we use independent sets of occurrence data collected systematically in several agricultural habitats to test how the predictive performance of SDMs for wild bee species depends on species traits, habitat type, and sampling technique. We used a species distribution modeling approach parametrized for the Netherlands, with presence records from 1990 to 2010 for 193 Dutch wild bees. For each species, we built a Maxent model based on 13 climate and landscape variables. We tested the predictive performance of the SDMs with independent datasets collected from orchards and arable fields across the Netherlands from 2010 to 2013, using transect surveys or pan traps. Model predictive performance depended on species traits and habitat type. Occurrence of bee species specialized in habitat and diet was better predicted than generalist bees. Predictions of habitat suitability were also more precise for habitats that are temporally more stable (orchards) than for habitats that suffer regular alterations (arable), particularly for small, solitary bees. As a conservation tool, SDMs are best suited to modeling rarer, specialist species than more generalist and will work best in long-term stable habitats. The variability of complex, short-term habitats is difficult to capture in such models and historical land use generally has low thematic resolution. To improve SDMs’ usefulness, models require explanatory variables and collection data that include detailed landscape characteristics, for example, variability of crops and flower availability. Additionally, testing SDMs with field surveys should involve multiple collection techniques.

Assessing the impact of deforestation and climate change on the range size and environmental niche of bird species in the Atlantic forests, Brazil

Aim Habitat loss and climate change are two major drivers of biological diversity. Here we quantify how deforestation has already changed, and how future climate scenarios may change, environmental conditions within the highly disturbed Atlantic forests of Brazil. We also examine how environmental conditions have been altered within the range of selected bird species. Location Atlantic forests of south-eastern Brazil. Methods The historical distribution of 21 bird species was estimated using Maxent. After superimposing the present-day forest cover, we examined the environmental niches hypothesized to be occupied by these birds pre- and post-deforestation using environmental niche factor analysis (ENFA). ENFA was also used to compare conditions in the entire Atlantic forest ecosystem pre- and post-deforestation. The relative influence of land use and climate change on environmental conditions was examined using analysis of similarity and principal components analysis. Results Deforestation in the region has resulted in a decrease in suitable habitat of between 78% and 93% for the Atlantic forest birds included here. Further, Atlantic forest birds today experience generally wetter and less seasonal forest environments than they did historically. Models of future environmental conditions within forest remnants suggest generally warmer conditions and lower annual variation in rainfall due to greater precipitation in the driest quarter of the year. We found that deforestation resulted in a greater divergence of environmental conditions within Atlantic forests than that predicted by climate change. Main conclusions The changes in environmental conditions that have occurred with large-scale deforestation suggest that selective regimes may have shifted and, as a consequence, spatial patterns of intra-specific variation in morphology, behaviour and genes have probably been altered. Although the observed shifts in available environmental conditions resulting from deforestation are greater than those predicted by climate change, the latter will result in novel environments that exceed temperatures in any present-day climates and may lead to biotic attrition unless organisms can adapt to these warmer conditions. Conserving intra-specific diversity over the long term will require considering both how changes in the recent past have influenced contemporary populations and the impact of future environmental change.

Padrões distintos de congruência climática em duas espécies invasoras de prosopis em zonas semi-áridas da América do Sul

Based on climate data and occurrence records, ecological niche models (ENM) are an important opportunity to identify areas at risk or vulnerable to biological invasion. These models are based on the assumption that there is a match between the climatic characteristic of native and invaded regions predicting the potential distribution of exotic species. Using new methods to measure niche overlap, we chose two exotic species fairly common in semi-arid regions of South America, Prosopis juliflora (Sw.) D.C. and Prosopis pallida (H. ; B. ex. Willd) HBK, to test the climate matching hypothesis. Our results indicate that both species occur with little niche overlap in the native region while the inverse pattern is observed in the invaded region on South America, where both species occur with high climatic overlap. Maybe some non-climate factor act limiting the spread of P. pallida on the native range. We believe that a founder effect can explain these similarities between species niche in the invaded region once the seeds planted in Brazil came from a small region on the Native range (Piura in Peru), where both species occur sympatric. Our hypothesis of a founder effect may be evident when we look at the differences between the predictions of the models built in the native and invaded ranges. Furthermore, our results indicate that P. juliflora shows high levels of climate matching between native and invaded ranges. However, conclusions about climate matching of P. pallida should be taken with caution. Our models based on climatic variables provide multiple locations suitable for occurrence of both species in regions where they still don t have occurrence records, including places of high interest for conservation.