Identifying predictable foraging habitats for a wide-ranging marine predator using ensemble ecological niche models

Aim: Ecological niche modelling can provide valuable insight into species' environmental preferences and aid the identification of key habitats for populations of conservation concern. Here, we integrate biologging, satellite remote-sensing and ensemble ecological niche models (EENMs) to identify predictable foraging habitats for a globally important population of the grey-headed albatross (GHA) Thalassarche chrysostoma. Location: Bird Island, South Georgia; Southern Atlantic Ocean. Methods: GPS and geolocation-immersion loggers were used to track at-sea movements and activity patterns of GHA over two breeding seasons (n = 55; brood-guard). Immersion frequency (landings per 10-min interval) was used to define foraging events. EENM combining Generalized Additive Models (GAM), MaxEnt, Random Forest (RF) and Boosted Regression Trees (BRT) identified the biophysical conditions characterizing the locations of foraging events, using time-matched oceanographic predictors (Sea Surface Temperature, SST; chlorophyll a, chl-a; thermal front frequency, TFreq; depth). Model performance was assessed through iterative cross-validation and extrapolative performance through cross-validation among years. Results: Predictable foraging habitats identified by EENM spanned neritic (<500 m), shelf break and oceanic waters, coinciding with a set of persistent biophysical conditions characterized by particular thermal ranges (3–8 °C, 12–13 °C), elevated primary productivity (chl-a > 0.5 mg m−3) and frequent manifestation of mesoscale thermal fronts. Our results confirm previous indications that GHA exploit enhanced foraging opportunities associated with frontal systems and objectively identify the APFZ as a region of high foraging habitat suitability. Moreover, at the spatial and temporal scales investigated here, the performance of multi-model ensembles was superior to that of single-algorithm models, and cross-validation among years indicated reasonable extrapolative performance. Main conclusions: EENM techniques are useful for integrating the predictions of several single-algorithm models, reducing potential bias and increasing confidence in predictions. Our analysis highlights the value of EENM for use with movement data in identifying at-sea habitats of wide-ranging marine predators, with clear implications for conservation and management.

Identifying predictable foraging habitats for a wide-ranging marine predator using ensemble ecological niche models

Aim: Ecological niche modelling can provide valuable insight into species' environmental preferences and aid the identification of key habitats for populations of conservation concern. Here, we integrate biologging, satellite remote-sensing and ensemble ecological niche models (EENMs) to identify predictable foraging habitats for a globally important population of the grey-headed albatross (GHA) Thalassarche chrysostoma. Location: Bird Island, South Georgia; Southern Atlantic Ocean. Methods: GPS and geolocation-immersion loggers were used to track at-sea movements and activity patterns of GHA over two breeding seasons (n = 55; brood-guard). Immersion frequency (landings per 10-min interval) was used to define foraging events. EENM combining Generalized Additive Models (GAM), MaxEnt, Random Forest (RF) and Boosted Regression Trees (BRT) identified the biophysical conditions characterizing the locations of foraging events, using time-matched oceanographic predictors (Sea Surface Temperature, SST; chlorophyll a, chl-a; thermal front frequency, TFreq; depth). Model performance was assessed through iterative cross-validation and extrapolative performance through cross-validation among years. Results: Predictable foraging habitats identified by EENM spanned neritic (<500 m), shelf break and oceanic waters, coinciding with a set of persistent biophysical conditions characterized by particular thermal ranges (3–8 °C, 12–13 °C), elevated primary productivity (chl-a > 0.5 mg m−3) and frequent manifestation of mesoscale thermal fronts. Our results confirm previous indications that GHA exploit enhanced foraging opportunities associated with frontal systems and objectively identify the APFZ as a region of high foraging habitat suitability. Moreover, at the spatial and temporal scales investigated here, the performance of multi-model ensembles was superior to that of single-algorithm models, and cross-validation among years indicated reasonable extrapolative performance. Main conclusions: EENM techniques are useful for integrating the predictions of several single-algorithm models, reducing potential bias and increasing confidence in predictions. Our analysis highlights the value of EENM for use with movement data in identifying at-sea habitats of wide-ranging marine predators, with clear implications for conservation and management.

Applying species distribution modelling to identify areas of high conservation value for endangered species: A case study using Margaritifera margaritifera (L.)

The development and implementation of a population supplementation and restoration plan for any endangered species should involve an understanding of the species’ habitat requirements prior to the release of any captive bred individuals. The freshwater pearl mussel, Margaritifera margaritifera, has undergone dramatic declines over the last century and is now globally endangered. In Northern Ireland, the release of captive bred individuals is being used to support wild populations and repatriate the species in areas where it once existed. We employed a combination of maximum entropy modelling (MAXENT) and Generalized Linear Mixed Models (GLMM) to identify ecological parameters necessary to support wild populations using GIS-based landscape scale and ground-truthed habitat scale environmental parameters. The GIS-based landscape scale model suggested that mussel occurrence was associated with altitude and soil characteristics including the carbon, clay, sand, and silt content. Notably, mussels were associated with a relatively narrow band of variance indicating that M. margaritifera has a highly specific landscape niche. The ground-truthed habitat scale model suggested that mussel occurrence was associated with stable consolidated substrates, the extent of bankside trees, presence of indicative macrophyte species and fast flowing water. We propose a three phase conservation strategy for M. margaritifera identifying suitable areas within rivers that (i) have a high conservation value yet needing habitat restoration at a local level, (ii) sites for population supplementation of existing populations and (iii) sites for species reintroduction to rivers where the mussel historically occurred but is now locally extinct. A combined analytical approach including GIS-based landscape scale and ground-truthed habitat scale models provides a robust method by which suitable release sites can be identified for the population supplementation and restoration of an endangered species. Our results will be highly influential in the future management of M. margaritifera in Northern Ireland.

Climate change and the cost of conserving species in Madagascar

We examined the cost of conserving species as climate changes using Madagascar as an example. We used a Maxent species distribution model to predict the ranges of 74 plant species endemic to the forests of Madagascar from 2000-2080 in three climate scenarios. We set a conservation target of achieving 10,000 hectares of forest cover for each species, and calculated the cost of achieving this target under each climate scenario. We interviewed natural forest restoration project managers and conducted a literature review to obtain the net present cost per hectare of management actions to maintain or establish forest cover. For each species we added hectares of land from lowest to highest cost per additional year of forest cover until the conservation target was achieved throughout the time period. Climate change was predicted to reduce the size of species’ ranges, the overlap between species’ ranges and existing or planned protected areas, and the overlap between species’ ranges and existing forest. As a result, climate change increased the cost of achieving the conservation target by necessitating successively more costly management actions: additional management within existing protected areas (US$0-60/ha), avoidance of forest degradation (loss of biomass) in community-managed areas ($160-576/ha), avoidance of deforestation in unprotected areas ($252-1069/ha), and establishment of forest on non-forested land within protected areas ($802-2710/ha), in community-managed areas ($962-3226/ha), and in unprotected areas ($1054-3719/ha). Our results suggest that though forest restoration may be required for the conservation of some species as climate changes, it is more cost-effective to maintain existing forest wherever possible.

Postglacial dispersal, rather than in situ glacial survival, best explains the disjunct distribution of the Lusitanian plant species Daboecia cantabrica (Ericaceae)

Aim:

The distribution of the Lusitanian flora and fauna, species which are found only in southern and western Ireland and in northern Spain and Portugal but which are absent from intervening countries, represents one of the classic conundrums of biogeography. The aim of the present study was to determine whether the distribution of the Lusitanian plant species Daboecia cantabrica was due to persistence in separate Irish and Iberian refugia, or has resulted from post-glacial recolonization followed by subsequent extinction of intervening populations.

Location:

Northern Spain and Co. Galway, western Ireland.

Methods:

Palaeodistribution modelling using Maxent was employed to identify putative refugial areas for D. cantabrica at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Phylogeographical analysis of samples from 64 locations in Ireland and Spain were carried out using a chloroplast marker (atpB–rbcL), the nuclear ITS region, and an anonymous nuclear single-copy locus.

Results:

The palaeodistribution model indicated areas with a high probability of survival for D. cantabrica at the LGM off the western coast of Galicia in Spain, and in the Bay of Biscay. Spanish populations exhibited substantially higher genetic diversity than Irish populations at all three loci, as well as geographical structuring of haplotypes within Spain consistent with divergence in separate refugia. Spanish populations also exhibited far more endemic haplotypes. Divergence time between Irish and Spanish populations associated with the putative Biscay refugium was estimated as 3.333–32 ka.

Main conclusions:

Our data indicate persistence by D. cantabrica throughout the LGM in two separate southern refugia: one in western Galicia and one in the area off the coast of western France which now lies in the Bay of Biscay. Spain was recolonized from both refugia, whilst Ireland was most likely recolonized from the Biscay refugium. On the balance of evidence across the three marker types and the palaeodistribution modelling, our findings do not support the idea of in situ survival of D. cantabrica in Ireland, contrary to earlier suggestions. The fact that we cannot conclusively rule out the existence of a small, more northerly refugium, however, highlights the need for further analysis of Lusitanian plant species.

Identifying optimal sites for natural recovery and restoration of impacted biogenic habitats in a special area of conservation using hydrodynamic and habitat suitability modelling

Selection of sites for successful restoration of impacted shellfish populations depends on understanding the dispersion capability and habitat requirements of the species involved. In Strangford Lough, Northern Ireland, the horse mussel (Modiolus modiolus) biogenic reefs cover only a fraction of their historical range with the remaining reefs badly damaged and requiring restoration. Previous experimental trials suggest that translocation of horse mussels accelerates reef recovery and has therefore been proposed as a suitable restoration technique. We used a series of coupled hydrodynamic and particle dispersal models to assess larval dispersion from remnant and translocated populations to identify suitable areas for adult live M. modiolus translocation in Strangford Lough, Northern Ireland. A maximum entropy model (MAXENT) was used to identify if dispersing larvae could reach habitat suitable for adult M. modiolus. From these we predicted if translocated mussels will reseed themselves or be able to act as larval sources for nearby reefs. The dispersal models showed that the remnant M. modiolus populations are largely self-recruiting with little connectivity between them. The majority of larvae settled near the sources and movement was largely dependent on the tides and not influenced by wind or waves. Higher reef elevation resulted in larvae being able to disperse further away from the release point. However, larval numbers away from the source population are likely to be too low for successful recruitment. There was also little connectivity between the Irish Sea and Strangford Lough as any larvae entering the Lough remained predominantly in the Strangford Narrows. The areas covered by these self-seeding populations are suitable for M. modiolus translocation according to the MAXENT model. As a result of this work and in conjunction with other field work we propose a combination of total protection of all remaining larval sources and small scale translocations onto suitable substrata in each of the identified self-recruiting areas.

Identifying optimal feeding habitat and proposed Marine Protected Areas (pMPAs) for the black-legged kittiwake (Rissa tridactyla) suggests a need for complementary management approaches

Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) are an important conservation tool. For marine predators, recent research has focused on the use of Species Distribution Models (SDMs) to identify proposed sites. We used a maximum entropy modelling approach based on static and dynamic oceanographic parameters to determine optimal feeding habitat for black-legged kittiwakes (Rissa tridactyla) at two colonies during two consecutive breeding seasons (2009 and 2010). A combination of Geographic Positioning System (GPS) loggers and Time-Depth Recorders (TDRs) attributed feeding activity to specific locations. Feeding areas were <30 km from the colony, <40 km from land, in productive waters, 25–175m deep. The predicted extent of optimal habitat declined at both colonies between 2009 and 2010 coincident with declines in reproductive success. Whilst the area of predicted optimal habitat changed, its location was spatially stable between years. There was a close match between observed feeding locations and habitat predicted as optimal at one colony (Lambay Island, Republic of Ireland), but a notable mismatch at the other (Rathlin Island, Northern Ireland). Designation of an MPA at Rathlin may, therefore, be less effective than a similar designation at Lambay perhaps due to the inherent variability in currents and sea state in the North Channel compared to the comparatively stable conditions in the central Irish Sea. Current strategies for designating MPAs do not accommodate likely future redistribution of resources due to climate change. We advocate the development of new approaches including dynamic MPAs that track changes in optimal habitat and non-colony specific ecosystem management.

Phylogeographical analysis of two cold-tolerant plants with disjunct Lusitanian distributions does not support in situ survival during the last glaciation

Aim: We used a combination of modelling and genetic approaches to investigate whether Pinguicula grandiflora and Saxifraga spathularis, two species that exhibit disjunct Lusitanian distributions, may have persisted through the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, c. 21 ka) in separate northern and southern refugia.

Location: Northern and eastern Spain and south-western Ireland.

Methods: Palaeodistribution modelling using maxent was used to identify putative refugial areas for both species at the LGM, as well as to estimate their distributions during the Last Interglacial (LIG, c. 120 ka). Phylogeographical analysis of samples from across both species' ranges was carried out using one chloroplast and three nuclear loci for each species.

Results: The palaeodistribution models identified very limited suitable habitat for either species during the LIG, followed by expansion during the LGM. A single, large refugium across northern Spain and southern France was postulated for P. grandiflora. Two suitable regions were identified for S. spathularis: one in northern Spain, corresponding to the eastern part of the species' present-day distribution in Iberia, and the other on the continental shelf off the west coast of Brittany, south of the limit of the British–Irish ice sheet. Phylogeographical analyses indicated extremely reduced levels of genetic diversity in Irish populations of P. grandiflora relative to those in mainland Europe, but comparable levels of diversity between Irish and mainland European populations of S. spathularis, including the occurrence of private hapotypes in both regions.

Main conclusions: Modelling and phylogeographical analyses indicate that P. grandiflora persisted through the LGM in a southern refugium, and achieved its current Irish distribution via northward dispersal after the retreat of the ice sheets. Although the results for S. spathularis are more equivocal, a similar recolonization scenario also seems the most likely explanation for the species' current distribution.

Combining global climate and regional landscape models to improve prediction of invasion risk

Aim
It is widely acknowledged that species distributions result from a variety of biotic and abiotic factors operating at different spatial scales. Here, we aimed to (1) determine the extent to which global climate niche models (CNMs) can be improved by the addition of fine-scale regional data; (2) examine climatic and environmental factors influencing the range of 15 invasive aquatic plant species; and (3) provide a case study for the use of such models in invasion management on an island.

Location
Global, with a case study of species invasions in Ireland.

Methods
Climate niche models of global extent (including climate only) and regional environmental niche models (with additional factors such as human influence, land use and soil characteristics) were generated using maxent for 15 invasive aquatic plants. The performance of these models within the invaded range of the study species in Ireland was assessed, and potential hotspots of invasion suitability were determined. Models were projected forward up to 2080 based on two climate scenarios.

Results
While climate variables are important in defining the global range of species, factors related to land use and nutrient level were of greater importance in regional projections. Global climatic models were significantly improved at the island scale by the addition of fine-scale environmental variables (area under the curve values increased by 0.18 and true skill statistic values by 0.36), and projected ranges decreased from an average of 86% to 36% of the island.

Main conclusions
Refining CNMs with regional data on land use, human influence and landscape may have a substantial impact on predictive capacity, providing greater value for prioritization of conservation management at subregional or local scales.

Habitat predictive modelling of demersal fish species in the Azores

Dissertação de Mestrado, Estudos Integrados dos Oceanos, 25 de Março de 2013, Universidade dos Açores.

Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution and conservation of endemic forest land snails of Madeira Island

Climate change is emerging as one of the major threats to natural communities of the world’s ecosystems; and biodiversity hotspots, such as Madeira Island, might face a challenging future in the conservation of endangered land snails’ species. With this thesis, progresses have been made in order to properly understand the impact of climate on these vulnerable taxa; and species distribution models coupled with GIS and climate change scenarios have become crucial to understand the relations between species distribution and environmental conditions, identifying threats and determining biodiversity vulnerability. With the use of MaxEnt, important changes in the species suitable areas were obtained. Laurel forest species, highly dependent on precipitation and relative humidity, may face major losses on their future suitable areas, leading to the possible extinction of several endangered species, such as Leiostyla heterodon. Despite the complexity of the biological systems, the intrinsic uncertainty of species distribution models and the lack of information about land snails’ functional traits, this analysis contributed to a pioneer study on the impacts of climate change on endemic species of Madeira Island. The future inclusion of predictions of the effect of climate change on species distribution as part of IUCN assessments could contribute to species prioritizing, promoting specific management actions and maximizing conservation investment.

« Ce sont les fiez et les services estraiz des registres anciens du roy, l'an » 1326, compilation de documents des règnes de Philippe-Auguste, S. Louis, Philippe le Hardi, publiés, pour la plupart, dans le tome XXIII du Recueil des Historiens de France.

Contient : « Et premièrement de Normandie » ; « Les fiez de la baillie de Rouen » ; « Les fiez monseigneur de Prayaux » ; « Les fiez Baudri de Longchamp » ; « Les fiez de Saint Odoyn » ; « Les fiez de l'abbé de Jemeci » ; « Les fiez de Pavelli » ; « Les fiez Barthelemy Dogon. Et premièrement de Grantemont » ; « Les fiez movans de Britoil » ; « Les fiez des chevaliers Guillaume de Saqueville » ; « Les fiez de Erchamfray » ; « Les fiez de la terre de Molins » ; « Les fiez de Sainte Scolaste » ; « Les fiez du seigneur de Merle » ; « Les fiez des Alençonnays » ; « Les fiez dou douaire de dame Adelice de Roye » ; « La baillie Pierre de Tilly ou chi[e]f de la duchie » ; « Les fiez de l'abbé du Mont Saint Michiel » ; « Ceuls ci tienent des eschaites du roy » ; « Ceuls ci tienent de l'onneur de Monbray, qui est en la main du roy » ; « Ceuls ci tienent de l'onneur de Braose » ; « Ceuls ci tienent de Nonant ce que Garin de Glapion tint » ; « Ceuls ci tienent du fié de Sainte Scolaste ce que icelui Garin tint » ; « Ceuls ci tienent du fié de Mampichon ce que ledit Garin tint » ; « Ceuls ci tienent des fiés du conte de Cestre » ; « Item du conte de Cestre » ; « Ceus ci tienent du fié de Cleville » ; « La Chastellerie de Gisors. Les fiés de la baillie de monseigneur Guillaume de La Ville Thierry » ; La chastellerie de Vernon » ; « La chastellerie de Pacy » ; « La chastellerie de Maante » ; « La chastellerie de Breval » ; « La chastellerie de Meullent » ; « La chastellerie de Chaumont » ; « La chastellerie de Annet » ; « La chastellerie de Nogent » ; « La chastellerie de Pontoise » ; « Ce sont les fiez que Jehan de Gisors tient de nostre seigneur le roy » ; « Les fiez de Robert de Poissy » ; « Les fiez Gautier Tirel en Veuquessin » ; « Les fiez qui sont tenus de Guillaume de Milly et lesquiex tient du roy » ; « L'enqueste de la valeur des fiez de la chastellerie de Poissy, faite de Thomas Macé et Bernart de Poissy, par les seremens de chevaliers anciens et preudommes, l'an de grace » 1217 ; « Les fiez de la baillie Renart de la Ville Tierry » ; « La baillie de Bonneville, qui est du bailliage Jehan de La Porte. Ce sont les fiez qui sont tenuz de la baronnie de Kanquerville, qui est en la main de nostre sire le roy par escheoite de par monseigneur Hugues de Montfort » ; « Les fiez du Val de Rueil » ; « Les fiez de la baillie de Occimières » ; « Ce sont les fiez qui sont tenus de duchié en la baillie de Lisiues... Ce sont les fiez des escheoites » ; « Les fiez qui sont tenus de l'evesque de Bayeux en la baillie de Bonneville... Les fiez du val de Rouen... Ces choses en la baillie de Coustances » ; Cinq pièces du 24 juin 1224, du 15 juin 1246, du mois de « juignet » 1246, du 11 octobre 1245, de novembre 1245, concernant le service de l' « ost » dû au roi par les evêques de Normandie, la promesse faite par « Raymon, viconte de Touraine », de bailler quand il en sera requis tous ses châteaux et forteresses au roi, la promesse de Gaucher de Châtillon de rendre au roi son château de « Damfront » à son commandement, la promesse faite par « Morise de Credon » de bailler au roi ses châteaux et forteresses à son commandement, la promesse faite par « PHELIPPE SAVARY, seigneur de Montbason », de bailler au roi son château de Montbason à son commandement ; « La baillie monseigneur Gieffroy de La Chapelle » ; « Les fiez de Manneville » ; « Les fiez de Saint Richier » ; « Les fiez de Mortemer » ; « Les fiez du chambellanc de Tancarville et X. fiez de la duchié » ; « Les chevaliers qui tiennent de l'abbaye de Fescant » ; « Les fiez qui sont tenuz du roy à Saint Quantin » ; « Les fiez tenuz du roy à Peronne » ; « Les fiez de Crespy en Valois » ; « Les fiez de Calni » ; « Les fiez tenuz du roy à Ribemont » ; « Les fiez tenuz du roy à La Ferté » ; « Les fiez que Jehan de Neele tient du roy » ; « Les fiez de la chastellainie de Montdidier par les seremens des chevaliers » ; « Le fié que Adam de Manencort tient du roy » ; « Le fié Girart de Ceri, qu'il tient du roy » ; « Les fiez de Remy » ; « Les fiez de la baillie Estienne de Hautviller » ; « Les fiez de la baillie de Bourges » ; « Les fiez du roy à Bourges et entour Bourges » ; « Les fiez mouvans de Exoldun » ; « Les fiez de la baillie Adam Heron. Et premièrement de Meleun » ; « Les fiez monseigneur Guy et Pierre de Dijon, frères de Saint Guillaume » ; « Les fiez de la chastellerie de Montlehery » ; « Les fiez que Guillaume de Silli tient du roy en la chastellerie de La Ferté » ; Les fiefs de « la chastellerie de Beaumont » ; « Les chasteaux que Aymart de Poitier,... Hemeri de Rochechoart,... Eracle de Monlaour » tiennent du roi. Mention de la reconnaissance que fit la reine de Chypre le « jour de la S. Martin d'yver » 1234, que le roi lui avait payé 40 000 livres tournois pour le comté de Champagne, les fiefs de Blois, Chartres, Châteaudun, Sancerre et leurs appartenances ; Les noms de ceux qui firent hommage au roi en 1241, 1243, 1244, 1245, 1246, 1248, 1249, 1250, 1251, 1252, 1253, 1254, 1260, 1261, 1287 ; « Ce sont les nons de ceuls de la conté de Bourgoigne qui sont tenuz de faire homage au roy et service en ses guerres » ; « Ce sont ceus qui tienent du roy en fié france et delivre, en Auverne » ; « Homages fais à Thibaut, roy de Navarre, de Champagne et de Brie, conte palatin, du commencement de son royaume, l'an de grace 1256 et depuis : Fiés de Troyes,... des Ylles et de Chaource,... Bar sur Sainne,... Saint Florentin,... Villemor,... Mery,... Peantium,... Pons sur Sainne,... Nogent sur Saine,... Bray,... Monstoreul,... Joy,... Prouvins,... Coulombiers en Brie,... Meaux,... Bar seur Aube,... La Ferté sus Aube,... Montclari,... Chaumont en Bassegny,... Montigni en Basseigni,... Nongent en Basseigny,... Montroyal,... Les Estranges,... Chasteau Thierri,... feoda de Ulcheyo,... les fiez de Fimes et de Nuilly,... Chastillon sus Marne,... Esparnay,... les fiez de Marueil et de Voies aus Lous,... les fiez de Vertuz et de Moymer,... Sezanne,... Chantemelle,... Vitri,... les fiez de Suppe et de Saint Elier,... les fiez de Sainte Manehout,... Buissi et Passavant » ; « Ce fu extrait d'un rolle de la chambre des comptes qui estoit ainsi intitulés par dehors et ainsi signez 8 : Les chevaliers et escuiers et autres, qui doivent service au roy et qui vinrent en l'ost de Foes, et confesserent par leurs cedules les services si comme il sont ci escrips » : a. « Le duc de Bourgoingne amena avec soi VII chevaliers bannerez qui estoient eulz L. de chevaliers, et li duc avoit autres chevaliers... ». (Fol. 239 et 240.) b. « Les chevaliers de la prevosté de Paris, d'Estampes et d'iluec environ, qui doivent service au roy ». (Fol. 240 à 242.) c. « Les chevaliers de Normandi (sic). La baillie de Roen,... la baillie de Caen,... les chevaliers de la baillie de Cauz,... les chevaliers de la baillie de Coustantin,... la baillie de Gisors ». (Fol. 242 à 248.) d. « Les chevaliers de la seneschaucée de Poitou ». (Fol. 248 et 249.) e. « Les chevaliers de la seneschaucée de Xainctonge ». (Fol. 249 à 251.) f. « Thoulouse, Auvergne, Agen et plusieurs autres baillies et seneschaucées ». (Fol. 251 à 253) ; « En un autre role de la chambre des comptes, duquel le signe est tel : 5, a l'on trouvé que ceuz qui s'ensivent doivent service, et ne desclerent pas quel. Et furent semons à Chynon à l'endemain des octaves de Pasques, pour aler sur la conté de La Marche, l'an de grâce 1242 » ; « En un autre role de la chambre des comptes, duquel le signe est tel : 4, ay trouvé que l'an de grace 1253 furent amonetés à Yssodun, au samedi devant la Nativité Nostre-Dame, au service : le conte de Sansuerre,... Item en yceli role est contenu ceus qui furent cemons au service, au samedi après la Nativité Nostre Dame, à Marteaus... les chers des abbaies... les communes qui envoièrent sergens de pié » ; « Item j'ai trouvé en un autre role les nons des abbayes qui doivent charroy au roy toutes fois que le corps du roy va en guerre, en quelque lieu que ce soit » ; « Item en un autre role de la chambre des comptes, duquel le signe est tel : Q, ay trouvé que ce sunt les services de Normandie et ceux yci sunt qui le doivent... » ; « Item en quel manière les nobles sunt punis qui furent amonetés en l'ost de Foix ». Acte de « PHELIPPE LE HARDI » ; « Arrest » contre les barons d'Auvergne qui disaient que quand le roi comme seigneur d'Auvergne les « veut mener en ost », il doit payer tous leurs dépens ; « En un role de la chambre des » comptes, « duquel le signe est : 3, a esté trouvé que l'an 1236... ceuz qui s'ensivent furent amonetez à III. sepmaines de la Penthecoste, à S. Germain en Laye, au service » ; « Item en un livre à ez couvert de cuir vert que l'on ot de mestre Pierre La Reue, sont trouvez escris le[s] services et les rebriches qui s'ensivent : Ceus cy-dessous escrips sont tenus à faire au roy ost et chevauchiée pour raison de sa terre d'Agen et des appartenances d'outre Garonne » ; « Ce sunt les nons de ceux qui doivent sommiers au roy » ; « Ce sunt les nons de pluseurs personnes de diverses parties du royaume de France, qui sunt tenu (sic) de faire hommaige au roy, si comme il appert par leur lectres : Primo, Hues, conte de Sainct Pol,... Gauchier de Chastoillon,... Geffroy de Sergines,... Jehans, sire de Neelle,... Geffroy, sires d'Aspremont,... Pierre de Courtivi,... Jehan, conte de Roci,... Henris, sires de Soilly,... Henri d'Avangour,... Jehan, sires de Bailleul,... Robert de Bazoches,... Mahi, sires de Montmorenci,... Jehan, sires de Neelle, est homme lige du roy... Item cil qui s'ensivent sunt homme dudit Jehan de Neelle, et sunt tenu du roy de cest fié mesmes... Raimont, conte de Thoart,... Guillaume, mareschal, conte de Pembroc,... Gautiers de Avesnes, contes de Blois,... La communautez de la ville de Sarlat... Les consoilliers et les bourgois de Montferrant,... Eudes, sires de Bourbon, filz du duc de Bourgoinne,... Raymont, viconte de Tourenne,... » ; Hommes liges du roi « à rachat haut et bas, sens estage... »; seigneurs de La Roche sur Yon ; hommes liges du roi « pour cause de la contée de Poitiers... Ce sunt les hommaiges du roy pour cause du conté de Poitiers, pour raison de la chastellenie de Fontunac... Ce sunt les homaiges dehuz au roy pour cause de la conté de Poitiers, de la chastelenie de Niort... Ce sunt les hommaiges du roy pour cause de la contée de Poitiers, dehuz pour raison de la terre que messire Guiz de Rochefort fourfist, et pour raison de la terre conquestée suer le conte de La Marche... Hommaiges de la terre conquestée à Sançay suer le conte de La Marche,... Ci après s'ensivent les rentes et les yssues des terres qui sunt en l'onneur de sainct Maxent et environ ces lieux... Ce sunt les rentes et les yssues de Cherveux des terres conquestez suer le conte de La Marche... Ce sunt les rentes et les yssues des terres et des foresteries de Sancey et environ... Ce sunt les hommaiges du roy pour cause de la conté de Poitiers des terres fourfaites, et premièrement en la chastellerie de Sainct Sauvin... Ce sunt les hommaiges de Montmor... Ce sunt les hommaiges deus au roy pour cause du demaigne de la contée de Poitiers... »

Assessing range-wide habitat suitability for the Lesser Prairie-Chicken

Population declines of many wildlife species have been linked to habitat loss incurred through land-use change. Incorporation of conservation planning into development planning may mitigate these impacts. The threatened Lesser Prairie-Chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) is experiencing loss of native habitat and high levels of energy development across its multijurisdictional range. Our goal was to explore relationships of the species occurrence with landscape characteristics and anthropogenic effects influencing its distribution through evaluation of habitat suitability associated with one particular habitat usage, lekking. Lekking has been relatively well-surveyed, though not consistently, in all jurisdictions. All five states in which Lesser Prairie-Chickens occur cooperated in development of a Maxent habitat suitability model. We created two models, one with state as a factor and one without state. When state was included it was the most important predictor, followed by percent of land cover consisting of known or suspected used vegetation classes within a 5000 m area around a lek. Without state, land cover was the most important predictor of relative habitat suitability for leks. Among the anthropogenic predictors, landscape condition, a measure of human impact integrated across several factors, was most important, ranking third in importance without state. These results quantify the relative suitability of the landscape within the current occupied range of Lesser Prairie-Chickens. These models, combined with other landscape information, form the basis of a habitat assessment tool that can be used to guide siting of development projects and targeting of areas for conservation.

A phyloclimatic study of Cyclamen

Background: The impact of global climate change on plant distribution, speciation and extinction is of current concern. Examining species climatic preferences via bioclimatic niche modelling is a key tool to study this impact. There is an established link between bioclimatic niche models and phylogenetic diversification. A next step is to examine future distribution predictions from a phylogenetic perspective. We present such a study using Cyclamen (Myrsinaceae), a group which demonstrates morphological and phenological adaptations to its seasonal Mediterranean-type climate. How will the predicted climate change affect future distribution of this popular genus of garden plants? Results: We demonstrate phylogenetic structure for some climatic characteristics, and show that most Cyclamen have distinct climatic niches, with the exception of several wide-ranging, geographically expansive, species. We reconstruct climate preferences for hypothetical ancestral Cyclamen. The ancestral Cyclamen lineage has a preference for the seasonal Mediterranean climate characteristic of dry summers and wet winters. Future bioclimatic niches, based on BIOCLIM and Maxent models, are examined with reference to a future climate scenario for the 2050s. Over the next 50 years we predict a northward shift in the area of climatic suitability, with many areas of current distribution becoming climatically unsuitable. The area of climatic suitability for every Cyclamen species is predicted to decrease. For many species, there may be no areas with a suitable climate regardless of dispersal ability, these species are considered to be at high risk of extinction. This risk is examined from a phylogenetic perspective. Conclusion: Examining bioclimatic niches from a phylogenetic perspective permits novel interpretations of these models. In particular, reconstruction of ancestral niches can provide testable hypothesis about the historical development of lineages. In the future we can expect a northwards shift in climatic suitability for the genus Cyclamen. If this proves to be the case then dispersal is the best chance of survival, which seems highly unlikely for ant-dispersed Cyclamen. Human-assisted establishment of Cyclamen species well outside their native ranges offers hope and could provide the only means of dispersal to potentially suitable future environments. Even without human intervention the phylogenetic perspective demonstrates that major lineages could survive climate change even if many species are lost.

Can the Iberian floristic diversity withstand near-future climate change?

We assess how effectively the current network of protected areas (PAs) across the Iberian Peninsula will conserve plant diversity under near-future (2020) climate change. We computed 3267 MAXENT environmental niche models (ENMs) at 1-km spatial resolution for known Iberian plant species under two climate scenarios (1950-2000 baseline & 2020). To predict near-future species distributions across the network of Iberian and Balearics PAs, we combined projections of species’ ENMs with simulations of propagule dispersal by using six scenarios of annual dispersal rates (no dispersal, 0.1 km, 0.5 km, 1 km, 2 km and unlimited). Mined PA grid cell values for each species were then analyzed. We forecast 3% overall floristic diversity richness loss by 2020. The habitat of regionally extant species will contract on average by 13.14%. Niche movement exceeds 1 km per annum for 30% of extant species. While the southerly range margin of northern plant species retracts northward at 8.9 km per decade, overall niche movement is more easterly and westerly than northerly. There is little expansion of the northern range margin of southern plant species even under unlimited dispersal. Regardless of propagule dispersal rate, altitudinal niche movement of +25 m per decade is strongest for northern species. Pyrenees flora is most vulnerable to near-future climate change with many northern plant species responding by shifting their range westerly and easterly rather than northerly. Northern humid habitats will be particularly vulnerable to near-future climate change. Andalusian National Parks will become important southern biodiversity refuges. With limited human intervention (particularly in the Pyrenees), we conclude that floristic diversity in Iberian PAs should withstand near-future climate change.