Using Normative Markov Decision Processes for Evaluating Electronic Contracts: A Case Study in a Simulated Aerospace Aftermarket

Before signing electronic contracts, a rational agent should estimate the expected utilities of these contracts and calculate the violation risks related to them. In order to perform such pre-signing procedures, this agent has to be capable of computing a policy taking into account the norms and sanctions in the contracts. In relation to this, the contribution of this work is threefold. First, we present the Normative Markov Decision Process, an extension of the Markov Decision Process for explicitly representing norms. In order to illustrate the usage of our framework, we model an example in a simulated aerospace aftermarket. Second, we specify an algorithm for identifying the states of the process which characterize the violation of norms. Finally, we show how to compute policies with our framework and how to calculate the risk of violating the norms in the contracts by adopting a particular policy.

Asset life prediction and maintenance decision-making using a non-linear non-Gaussian state space model

Estimating and predicting degradation processes of engineering assets is crucial for reducing the cost and insuring the productivity of enterprises. Assisted by modern condition monitoring (CM) technologies, most asset degradation processes can be revealed by various degradation indicators extracted from CM data. Maintenance strategies developed using these degradation indicators (i.e. condition-based maintenance) are more cost-effective, because unnecessary maintenance activities are avoided when an asset is still in a decent health state. A practical difficulty in condition-based maintenance (CBM) is that degradation indicators extracted from CM data can only partially reveal asset health states in most situations. Underestimating this uncertainty in relationships between degradation indicators and health states can cause excessive false alarms or failures without pre-alarms. The state space model provides an efficient approach to describe a degradation process using these indicators that can only partially reveal health states. However, existing state space models that describe asset degradation processes largely depend on assumptions such as, discrete time, discrete state, linearity, and Gaussianity. The discrete time assumption requires that failures and inspections only happen at fixed intervals. The discrete state assumption entails discretising continuous degradation indicators, which requires expert knowledge and often introduces additional errors. The linear and Gaussian assumptions are not consistent with nonlinear and irreversible degradation processes in most engineering assets. This research proposes a Gamma-based state space model that does not have discrete time, discrete state, linear and Gaussian assumptions to model partially observable degradation processes. Monte Carlo-based algorithms are developed to estimate model parameters and asset remaining useful lives. In addition, this research also develops a continuous state partially observable semi-Markov decision process (POSMDP) to model a degradation process that follows the Gamma-based state space model and is under various maintenance strategies. Optimal maintenance strategies are obtained by solving the POSMDP. Simulation studies through the MATLAB are performed; case studies using the data from an accelerated life test of a gearbox and a liquefied natural gas industry are also conducted. The results show that the proposed Monte Carlo-based EM algorithm can estimate model parameters accurately. The results also show that the proposed Gamma-based state space model have better fitness result than linear and Gaussian state space models when used to process monotonically increasing degradation data in the accelerated life test of a gear box. Furthermore, both simulation studies and case studies show that the prediction algorithm based on the Gamma-based state space model can identify the mean value and confidence interval of asset remaining useful lives accurately. In addition, the simulation study shows that the proposed maintenance strategy optimisation method based on the POSMDP is more flexible than that assumes a predetermined strategy structure and uses the renewal theory. Moreover, the simulation study also shows that the proposed maintenance optimisation method can obtain more cost-effective strategies than a recently published maintenance strategy optimisation method by optimising the next maintenance activity and the waiting time till the next maintenance activity simultaneously.

Extending persistent monitoring by combining ocean models and Markov decision processes

Ocean processes are complex and have high variability in both time and space. Thus, ocean scientists must collect data over long time periods to obtain a synoptic view of ocean processes and resolve their spatiotemporal variability. One way to perform these persistent observations is to utilise an autonomous vehicle that can remain on deployment for long time periods. However, such vehicles are generally underactuated and slow moving. A challenge for persistent monitoring with these vehicles is dealing with currents while executing a prescribed path or mission. Here we present a path planning method for persistent monitoring that exploits ocean currents to increase navigational accuracy and reduce energy consumption.

Optimal maintenance and replacement via a semi-Markov decision model

Optimal bang-coast maintenance policies for a machine, subject to failure, are considered. The approach utilizes a semi-Markov model for the system. A simplified model for modifying the probability of machine failure with maintenance is employed. A numerical example is presented to illustrate the procedure and results.

A reinforcement learning based algorithm for finite horizon Markov decision processes

We develop a simulation based algorithm for finite horizon Markov decision processes with finite state and finite action space. Illustrative numerical experiments with the proposed algorithm are shown for problems in flow control of communication networks and capacity switching in semiconductor fabrication.

An actor-critic algorithm with function approximation for discounted cost constrained Markov decision processes

We develop in this article the first actor-critic reinforcement learning algorithm with function approximation for a problem of control under multiple inequality constraints. We consider the infinite horizon discounted cost framework in which both the objective and the constraint functions are suitable expected policy-dependent discounted sums of certain sample path functions. We apply the Lagrange multiplier method to handle the inequality constraints. Our algorithm makes use of multi-timescale stochastic approximation and incorporates a temporal difference (TD) critic and an actor that makes a gradient search in the space of policy parameters using efficient simultaneous perturbation stochastic approximation (SPSA) gradient estimates. We prove the asymptotic almost sure convergence of our algorithm to a locally optimal policy. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Risk-sensitive optimal control for Markov decision processes with monotone cost

The existence of an optimal feedback law is established for the risk-sensitive optimal control problem with denumerable state space. The main assumptions imposed are irreducibility and a near monotonicity condition on the one-step cost function. A solution can be found constructively using either value iteration or policy iteration under suitable conditions on initial feedback law.

An Actor-Critic Algorithm for Finite Horizon Markov Decision Processes

We develop a simulation based algorithm for finite horizon Markov decision processes with finite state and finite action space. Illustrative numerical experiments with the proposed algorithm are shown for problems in flow control of communication networks and capacity switching in semiconductor fabrication.

Optimal Control of Markov Processes with Age-Dependent Transition Rates

We study optimal control of Markov processes with age-dependent transition rates. The control policy is chosen continuously over time based on the state of the process and its age. We study infinite horizon discounted cost and infinite horizon average cost problems. Our approach is via the construction of an equivalent semi-Markov decision process. We characterise the value function and optimal controls for both discounted and average cost cases.

Transmit power Control with ARQ in energy harvesting sensors: a decision-theoretic approach

This paper addresses the problem of finding optimal power control policies for wireless energy harvesting sensor (EHS) nodes with automatic repeat request (ARQ)-based packet transmissions. The EHS harvests energy from the environment according to a Bernoulli process; and it is required to operate within the constraint of energy neutrality. The EHS obtains partial channel state information (CSI) at the transmitter through the link-layer ARQ protocol, via the ACK/NACK feedback messages, and uses it to adapt the transmission power for the packet (re)transmission attempts. The underlying wireless fading channel is modeled as a finite state Markov chain with known transition probabilities. Thus, the goal of the power management policy is to determine the best power setting for the current packet transmission attempt, so as to maximize a long-run expected reward such as the expected outage probability. The problem is addressed in a decision-theoretic framework by casting it as a partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP). Due to the large size of the state-space, the exact solution to the POMDP is computationally expensive. Hence, two popular approximate solutions are considered, which yield good power management policies for the transmission attempts. Monte Carlo simulation results illustrate the efficacy of the approach and show that the approximate solutions significantly outperform conventional approaches.