Problems in estimating the response functions of natural climatic recording systems [abstract]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): High-resolution proxy records of climate, such as varves, ice cores, and tree-rings, provide the opportunity for reconstructing climate on a year-by-year basis. In order to do so it is necessary to approximate the complex nonlinear response function of the natural recording system using linear statistical models. Three problems with this approach were discussed, and possible solutions were suggested. Examples were given from a reconstruction of Santa Barbara precipitation based on tree-ring records from Santa Barbara County.

Interpreting long-term fish landings records: environment and/or exploitation?

The California Department of Fish and Game data base of California commercial fish landings for the period 1928 to 1985 has been assembled in computer accessible form at the Pacific Fisheries Environmental Group in Monterey, California. Time series for fishes whose landings are known to vary during periods of ocean warming were compared to time series of sea surface temperature. Expected patterns of variation were confirmed in the seasonal cycle, but were less clear on the interannual scale. When interannual variation was considered, the most serious hindrance to interpretation of the landings series appeared to be the continued reduction of the fish stocks due to commercial exploitation; other factors are discussed. Landings data contain information potentially useful in climatological studies, but problems should be anticipated in their use.

Climate-driven hydrologic transients in Holocene lake records

Understanding the link between climate and regional hydrologic processes is of primary importance in estimating the possible impact of future climate change and in the validation of climate models that attempt to simulate such changes. Two distinct problems need to be addressed: quantitatively establishing the link between changes in climate and the hydrologic cycle, and determining how these changes are expressed over differing temporal and spatial scales. To solve these problems, our interdisciplinary group is studying important aspects of hydrology, paleolimnology, geochemistry, and paleontology as they apply to climate-driven hydrologic changes.

An evaluation of the implementation of hand held health records with adults with learning disabilities: a cluster randomized controlled trial

Background: Personal health records were implemented with adults with learning disabilities (AWLD) to try to improve their health-care. Materials and Method: Forty GP practices were randomized to the Personal Health Profile (PHP) implementation or control group. Two hundred and one AWLD were interviewed at baseline and 163 followed up after 12 months intervention (PHP group). AWLD and carers of AWLD were employed as research interviewers. AWLD were full research participants. Results: Annual consultation rates in the intervention and control groups at baseline were low (2.3 and 2.6 visits respectively). A slightly greater increase occurred over the year in the intervention group 0.6 ()0.4 to 1.6) visits ⁄ year compared with controls. AWLD in PHP group reported more health problems at follow-up 0.9 (0.0 to 1.8). AWLD liked their PHP (92%) but only 63% AWLD and 55% carers reported PHP usage. Carers had high turnover (34%). Conclusions: No significant outcomes were achieved by the intervention.

General practitioner records on computer--handle with care

This 1 year prospective study involved nine general practitioners in an urban health centre who routinely record all patient contacts on computer. The study determines by comparison with a manual record how accurately doctors record laboratory investigations on computer and compares the effectiveness of three interventions in improving the completeness of computerized recording of presenting symptoms, problems/diagnoses and laboratory investigations. Recording was analysed for 1 month prior to and for two 1 month periods following each intervention. A control group was used. A total of 7983 patient contacts were analysed. Intervention led to an improvement in the recording of presenting symptoms and problems/diagnoses. Recording of investigations on the computer showed no improvement, remaining at one-third of the total in the treatment room book for both study and control doctors. The effectiveness of the different forms of intervention depended on both the aspect of the consultation considered and the familiarity of individual doctors with the method of data collection. Aspects considered less important required greater intervention to bring about a marked improvement, as did doctors relatively new to the practice. It may not be possible to get all aspects of the consultation recorded with the same degree of accuracy. This has implications for the accuracy of retrospective studies dependent on existing computerized data.

Agreement between self-report and medical records on signs and symptoms of respiratory illness

Background: Information on patient symptoms can be obtained by patient self-report or medical records review. Both methods have limitations. Aims: To assess the agreement between self-report and documentation in the medical records of signs/symptoms of respiratory illness (fever, cough, runny nose, sore throat, headache, sinus problems, muscle aches, fatigue, earache, and chills). Methods: Respondents were 176 research participants in the Hutterite Influenza Prevention Study during the 2008-2009 influenza season with information about the presence or absence of signs/symptoms from both self-report and primary care medical records. Results: Compared with medical records, lower proportions of self-reported fever, sore throat, earache, cough, and sinus problems were found. Total agreements between self-report and medical report of symptoms ranged from 61% (for sore throat) to 88% (for muscle aches and earache), with kappa estimates varying from 0.05 (for chills) to 0.41 (for cough) and 0.51 (for earache). Negative agreement was considerably higher (from 68% for sore throat to 93% for muscle aches and earache) than positive agreement (from 13% for chills to 58% for earache) for each symptom except cough where positive agreement (77%) was higher than negative agreement (64%). Agreements varied by age group. We found better agreement for earache (kappa=0.62) and lower agreements for headache, sinus problems, muscle aches, fatigue, and chills in older children (aged =5 years) and adults. Conclusions: Agreements were variable depending on the specific symptom. Contrary to research in other patient populations which suggests that clinicians report fewer symptoms than patients, we found that the medical record captured more symptoms than selfreport. Symptom agreement and disagreement may be affected by the perspectives of the person experiencing them, the observer, the symptoms themselves, measurement error, the setting in which the symptoms were observed and recorded, and the broader community and cultural context of patients. © 2012 Primary Care Respiratory Society UK. All rights reserved.

Health problems among detainees in Switzerland: a study using the ICPC-2 classification.

BACKGROUND: Little is known about the health status of prisoners in Switzerland. The aim of this study was to provide a detailed description of the health problems presented by detainees in Switzerland's largest remand prison. METHODS: In this retrospective cross-sectional study we reviewed the health records of all detainees leaving Switzerland's largest remand prison in 2007. The health problems were coded using the International Classification for Primary Care (ICPC-2). Analyses were descriptive, stratified by gender. RESULTS: A total of 2195 health records were reviewed. Mean age was 29.5 years (SD 9.5); 95% were male; 87.8% were migrants. Mean length of stay was 80 days (SD 160). Illicit drug use (40.2%) and mental health problems (32.6%) were frequent, but most of these detainees (57.6%) had more generic primary care problems, such as skin (27.0%), infectious diseases (23.5%), musculoskeletal (19.2%), injury related (18.3%), digestive (15.0%) or respiratory problems (14.0%). Furthermore, 7.9% reported exposure to violence during arrest by the police. CONCLUSION: Morbidity is high in this young, predominantly male population of detainees, in particular in relation to substance abuse. Other health problems more commonly seen in general practice are also frequent. These findings support the further development of coordinated primary care and mental health services within detention centers.

Children treated in psychoanalytical psychotherapy for learning problems

A clinical psychotherapy needs to turn its gaze to the current demands, and update its practice in empirical studies. The objective of this research is to ascertain the sociodemographic and clinical characteristics of children treated in psychotherapy by learning problems. We conducted a retrospective documentary study with records of 2106 children treated between 1979 and 2007 in two outpatient psychological care of the city of Porto Alegre, southern Brazil. The results showed that demand for Learning Problems is the fourth largest cause of psychotherapeutic care. There was no statistically significant difference regarding gender. Children with learning problems come to psychotherapy more frequently in the early stages of elementary school, around 7 years old. Increased demand for psychotherapy of children with learning problems takes place in May. Perhaps, learning difficulties can be understood simultaneously as a symptom global, in which other aspects, besides the uniqueness of the subject are involved. We conclude that individual and social aspects involved in Learning Problems may be useful in the clinical management of these children by professionals who are dedicated to meeting this particular clientele. One must be aware of ongoing partnership which should be placed between psychologist and pedagogue. Both professionals, education and health, account for components of the child to know

Robustness on resource allocation problems

En problemes d'assignació de recursos, normalment s'han de tenir en compte les incerteses que poden provocar canvis en les dades inicials. Aquests canvis dificulten l'aplicabilitat de les planificacions que s'hagin fet inicialment. Aquesta tesi se centra en l'elaboració de tècniques que consideren la incertesa alhora de cercar solucions robustes, és a dir solucions que puguin continuar essent vàlides encara que hi hagi canvis en l'entorn. Particularment, introduïm el concepte de robustesa basat en reparabilitat, on una solució robusta és una que pot ser reparada fàcilment en cas que hi hagi incidències. La nostra aproximació es basa en lògica proposicional, codificant el problema en una fórmula de satisfactibilitat Booleana, i aplicant tècniques de reformulació per a la generació de solucions robustes. També presentem un mecanisme per a incorporar flexibilitat a les solucions robustes, de manera que es pugui establir fàcilment el grau desitjat entre robustesa i optimalitat de les solucions.

A dynamic knowledge-based decision support system to handle solids separation problems in activated sludge systems: development and validation

El sistema de fangs activats és el tractament biològic més àmpliament utilitzat arreu del món per la depuració d'aigües residuals. El seu funcionament depèn de la correcta operació tant del reactor biològic com del decantador secundari. Quan la fase de sedimentació no es realitza correctament, la biomassa no decantada s'escapa amb l'efluent causant un impacte sobre el medi receptor. Els problemes de separació de sòlids, són actualment una de les principals causes d'ineficiència en l'operació dels sistemes de fangs activats arreu del món. Inclouen: bulking filamentós, bulking viscós, escumes biològiques, creixement dispers, flòcul pin-point i desnitrificació incontrolada. L'origen dels problemes de separació generalment es troba en un desequilibri entre les principals comunitats de microorganismes implicades en la sedimentació de la biomassa: els bacteris formadors de flòcul i els bacteris filamentosos. Degut a aquest origen microbiològic, la seva identificació i control no és una tasca fàcil pels caps de planta. Els Sistemes de Suport a la Presa de Decisions basats en el coneixement (KBDSS) són un grup d'eines informàtiques caracteritzades per la seva capacitat de representar coneixement heurístic i tractar grans quantitats de dades. L'objectiu de la present tesi és el desenvolupament i validació d'un KBDSS específicament dissenyat per donar suport als caps de planta en el control dels problemes de separació de sòlids d'orígen microbiològic en els sistemes de fangs activats. Per aconseguir aquest objectiu principal, el KBDSS ha de presentar les següents característiques: (1) la implementació del sistema ha de ser viable i realista per garantir el seu correcte funcionament; (2) el raonament del sistema ha de ser dinàmic i evolutiu per adaptar-se a les necessitats del domini al qual es vol aplicar i (3) el raonament del sistema ha de ser intel·ligent. En primer lloc, a fi de garantir la viabilitat del sistema, s'ha realitzat un estudi a petita escala (Catalunya) que ha permès determinar tant les variables més utilitzades per a la diagnosi i monitorització dels problemes i els mètodes de control més viables, com la detecció de les principals limitacions que el sistema hauria de resoldre. Els resultats d'anteriors aplicacions han demostrat que la principal limitació en el desenvolupament de KBDSSs és l'estructura de la base de coneixement (KB), on es representa tot el coneixement adquirit sobre el domini, juntament amb els processos de raonament a seguir. En el nostre cas, tenint en compte la dinàmica del domini, aquestes limitacions es podrien veure incrementades si aquest disseny no fos òptim. En aquest sentit, s'ha proposat el Domino Model com a eina per dissenyar conceptualment el sistema. Finalment, segons el darrer objectiu referent al seguiment d'un raonament intel·ligent, l'ús d'un Sistema Expert (basat en coneixement expert) i l'ús d'un Sistema de Raonament Basat en Casos (basat en l'experiència) han estat integrats com els principals sistemes intel·ligents encarregats de dur a terme el raonament del KBDSS. Als capítols 5 i 6 respectivament, es presenten el desenvolupament del Sistema Expert dinàmic (ES) i del Sistema de Raonament Basat en Casos temporal, anomenat Sistema de Raonament Basat en Episodis (EBRS). A continuació, al capítol 7, es presenten detalls de la implementació del sistema global (KBDSS) en l'entorn G2. Seguidament, al capítol 8, es mostren els resultats obtinguts durant els 11 mesos de validació del sistema, on aspectes com la precisió, capacitat i utilitat del sistema han estat validats tant experimentalment (prèviament a la implementació) com a partir de la seva implementació real a l'EDAR de Girona. Finalment, al capítol 9 s'enumeren les principals conclusions derivades de la present tesi.

Knowledge-based modelling and simulation of operational problems of microbiological origin in wastewater treatment plants

The activated sludge and anaerobic digestion processes have been modelled in widely accepted models. Nevertheless, these models still have limitations when describing operational problems of microbiological origin. The aim of this thesis is to develop a knowledge-based model to simulate risk of plant-wide operational problems of microbiological origin.For the risk model heuristic knowledge from experts and literature was implemented in a rule-based system. Using fuzzy logic, the system can infer a risk index for the main operational problems of microbiological origin (i.e. filamentous bulking, biological foaming, rising sludge and deflocculation). To show the results of the risk model, it was implemented in the Benchmark Simulation Models. This allowed to study the risk model's response in different scenarios and control strategies. The risk model has shown to be really useful providing a third criterion to evaluate control strategies apart from the economical and environmental criteria.

Health problems in elderly patients during the first post-stroke year

BACKGROUND: A wide range of health problems has been reported in elderly post-stroke patients. AIM: The aim of this study was to analyse the prevalence and timing of health problems identified by patient interviews and scrutiny of primary health care and municipality elderly health care records during the first post-stroke year. METHODS: A total of 390 consecutive patients, ≥65 years, discharged alive from hospital after a stroke event, were followed for 1 year post-admission. Information on the health care situation during the first post-stroke year was obtained from primary health care and municipal elderly health care records and through interviews with the stroke survivors, at 1 week after discharge, and 3 and 12 months after hospital admission. RESULTS: More than 90% had some health problem at some time during the year, while based on patient record data only 4-8% had problems during a given week. The prevalence of interview-based health problems was generally higher than record-based prevalence, and the ranking order was moderately different. The most frequently interview-reported problems were associated with perception, activity, and tiredness, while the most common record-based findings indicated pain, bladder and bowel function, and breathing and circulation problems. There was co-occurrence between some problems, such as those relating to cognition, activity, and tiredness. CONCLUSIONS: Almost all patients had a health problem during the year, but few occurred in a given week. Cognitive and communication problems were more common in interview data than record data. Co-occurrence may be used to identify subtle health problems.

Agent-based hybrid framework for decision making on complex problems

Electronic commerce and the Internet have created demand for automated systems that can make complex decisions utilizing information from multiple sources. Because the information is uncertain, dynamic, distributed, and heterogeneous in nature, these systems require a great diversity of intelligent techniques including expert systems, fuzzy logic, neural networks, and genetic algorithms. However, in complex decision making, many different components or sub-tasks are involved, each of which requires different types of processing. Thus multiple such techniques are required resulting in systems called hybrid intelligent systems. That is, hybrid solutions are crucial for complex problem solving and decision making. There is a growing demand for these systems in many areas including financial investment planning, engineering design, medical diagnosis, and cognitive simulation. However, the design and development of these systems is difficult because they have a large number of parts or components that have many interactions. From a multi-agent perspective, agents in multi-agent systems (MAS) are autonomous and can engage in flexible, high-level interactions. MASs are good at complex, dynamic interactions. Thus a multi-agent perspective is suitable for modeling, design, and construction of hybrid intelligent systems. The aim of this thesis is to develop an agent-based framework for constructing hybrid intelligent systems which are mainly used for complex problem solving and decision making. Existing software development techniques (typically, object-oriented) are inadequate for modeling agent-based hybrid intelligent systems. There is a fundamental mismatch between the concepts used by object-oriented developers and the agent-oriented view. Although there are some agent-oriented methodologies such as the Gaia methodology, there is still no specifically tailored methodology available for analyzing and designing agent-based hybrid intelligent systems. To this end, a methodology is proposed, which is specifically tailored to the analysis and design of agent-based hybrid intelligent systems. The methodology consists of six models - role model, interaction model, agent model, skill model, knowledge model, and organizational model. This methodology differs from other agent-oriented methodologies in its skill and knowledge models. As good decisions and problem solutions are mainly based on adequate information, rich knowledge, and appropriate skills to use knowledge and information, these two models are of paramount importance in modeling complex problem solving and decision making. Follow the methodology, an agent-based framework for hybrid intelligent system construction used in complex problem solving and decision making was developed. The framework has several crucial characteristics that differentiate this research from others. Four important issues relating to the framework are also investigated. These cover the building of an ontology for financial investment, matchmaking in middle agents, reasoning in problem solving and decision making, and decision aggregation in MASs. The thesis demonstrates how to build a domain-specific ontology and how to access it in a MAS by building a financial ontology. It is argued that the practical performance of service provider agents has a significant impact on the matchmaking outcomes of middle agents. It is proposed to consider service provider agents' track records in matchmaking. A way to provide initial values for the track records of service provider agents is also suggested. The concept of ‘reasoning with multimedia information’ is introduced, and reasoning with still image information using symbolic projection theory is proposed. How to choose suitable aggregation operations is demonstrated through financial investment application and three approaches are proposed - the stationary agent approach, the token-passing approach, and the mobile agent approach to implementing decision aggregation in MASs. Based on the framework, a prototype was built and applied to financial investment planning. This prototype consists of one serving agent, one interface agent, one decision aggregation agent, one planning agent, four decision making agents, and five service provider agents. Experiments were conducted on the prototype. The experimental results show the framework is flexible, robust, and fully workable. All agents derived from the methodology exhibit their behaviors correctly as specified.

Scan for MARC: princípios sintáticos e semânticos de registros bibliográficos aplicados à conversão de dados analógicos para o formato MARC 21 bibliográfico

Pós-graduação em Ciência da Informação - FFC

Metadata Authority Description Schema (MADS): uma alternativa à utilização do formato MARC 21 para dados de autoridade

Introduction: Authority records interchange requires establishing and using metadata standards, such as MARC 21 Format for Authority Data, format used by several cataloging agencies, and Metadata Authority Description Schema (MADS), that has received little attention and it is a little widespread standard among agencies. Purpose: Presenting an introductory study about Metadata Authority Description Schema (MADS). Methodology: Descriptive and exploratory bibliographic research. Results: The paper address the MADS creation context, its goals and its structure and key issues related to conversion of records from MARC 21 to MADS. Conclusions: The study concludes that, despite its limitations, MADS might be used to create simple authority records in Web environment and beyond libraries context.