Telephone support to rural and remote patients with heart failure : the Chronic Heart failure Assessment by Telephone (CHAT) study

Background Heart failure (HF) remains a condition with high morbidity and mortality. We tested a telephone support strategy to reduce major events in rural and remote Australians with HF, who have limited healthcare access. Telephone support comprised an interactive telecommunication software tool (TeleWatch) with follow-up by trained cardiac nurses. Methods Patients with a general practice (GP) diagnosis of HF were randomised to usual care (UC) or UC and telephone support intervention (UC+I) using a cluster design involving 143 GPs throughout Australia. Patients were followed for 12 months. The primary end-point was the Packer clinical composite score. Secondary end-points included hospitalisation for any cause, death or hospitalisation, as well as HF hospitalisation. Results Four hundred and five patients were randomised into CHAT. Patients were well matched at baseline for key demographic variables. The primary end-point of the Packer Score was not different between the two groups (P=0.98), although more patients improved with UC+I. There were fewer patients hospitalised for any cause (74 versus 114, adjusted HR 0.67 [95% CI 0.50-0.89], p=0.006) and who died or were hospitalised (89 versus 124, adjusted HR 0.70 [95% CI 0.53 – 0.92], p=0.011), in the UC+I vs UC group. HF hospitalisations were reduced with UC+I (23 versus 35, adjusted HR 0.81 [95% CI 0.44 – 1.38]), although this was not significant (p=0.43). There were 16 deaths in the UC group and 17 in the UC+I group (p=0.43). Conclusions Although no difference was observed in the primary end-point of CHAT (Packer composite score), UC+I significantly reduced the number of HF patients hospitalised amongst a rural and remote cohort. These data suggest that telephone support may be an efficacious approach to improve clinical outcomes in rural and remote HF patients.

Twitter as a technology for audiencing and fandom : the #Eurovision phenomenon

Amongst the most prominent uses of Twitter at present is its role in the discussion of widely televised events: Twitter’s own statistics for 2011, for example, list major entertainment spectacles (the MTV Music Awards, the BET Awards) and sports matches (the UEFA Champions League final, the FIFA Women’s World Cup final) amongst the events generating the most tweets per second during the year (Twitter, 2011). User activities during such televised events constitute a specific, unique category of Twitter use, which differs clearly from the other major events which generate a high rate of tweets per second (such as crises and breaking news, from the Japanese earthquake and tsunami to the death of Steve Jobs), as preliminary research has shown. During such major media events, by contrast, Twitter is used most predominantly as a technology of fandom instead: it serves in the first place as a backchannel to television and other streaming audiovisual media, enabling users offer their own running commentary on the universally shared media text of the event broadcast as it unfolds live. Centrally, this communion of fans around the shared text is facilitated by the use of Twitter hashtags – unifying textual markers which are now often promoted to prospective audiences by the broadcasters well in advance of the live event itself. This paper examines the use of Twitter as a technology for the expression of shared fandom in the context of a major, internationally televised annual media event: the Eurovision Song Contest. It constitutes a highly publicised, highly choreographed media spectacle whose eventual outcomes are unknown ahead of time and attracts a diverse international audience. Our analysis draws on comprehensive datasets for the ‘official’ event hashtags, #eurovision, #esc, and #sbseurovision. Using innovative methods which combine qualitative and quantitative approaches to the analysis of Twitter datasets containing several hundreds of thousands, we examine overall patterns of participation to discover how audiences express their fandom throughout the event. Minute-by-minute tracking of Twitter activity during the live broadcasts enables us to identify the most resonant moments during each event; we also examine the networks of interaction between participants to detect thematically or geographically determined clusters of interaction, and to identify the most visible and influential participants in each network. Such analysis is able to provide a unique insight into the use of Twitter as a technology for fandom and for what in cultural studies research is called ‘audiencing’: the public performance of belonging to the distributed audience for a shared media event. Our work thus contributes to the examination of fandom practices led by Henry Jenkins (2006) and other scholars, and points to Twitter as an important new medium facilitating the connection and communion of such fans.

Late Pleistocene stratigraphy of IODP Site U1396 and compiled chronology offshore of south and south west Montserrat, Lesser Antilles

Marine sediments around volcanic islands contain an archive of volcaniclastic deposits, which can be used to reconstruct the volcanic history of an area. Such records hold many advantages over often incomplete terrestrial datasets. This includes the potential for precise and continuous dating of intervening sediment packages, which allow a correlatable and temporally-constrained stratigraphic framework to be constructed across multiple marine sediment cores. Here, we discuss a marine record of eruptive and mass-wasting events spanning ~250 ka offshore of Montserrat, using new data from IODP Expedition 340, as well as previously collected cores. By using a combination of high-resolution oxygen isotope stratigraphy, AMS radiocarbon dating, biostratigraphy of foraminifera and calcareous nannofossils and clast componentry, we identify five major events at Soufriere Hills volcano since 250 ka. Lateral correlation of these events across sediment cores collected offshore of the south and south west of Montserrat, have improved our understanding of the timing, extent and associations between events in this area. Correlations reveal that powerful and potentially erosive density-currents travelled at least 33 km offshore, and demonstrate that marine deposits, produced by eruption-fed and mass-wasting events on volcanic islands, are heterogeneous in their spatial distribution. Thus, multiple drilling/coring sites are needed to reconstruct the full chronostratigraphy of volcanic islands. This multidisciplinary study will be vital to interpreting the chaotic records of submarine landslides at other sites drilled during Expedition 340 and provides a framework that can be applied to the stratigraphic analysis of sediments surrounding other volcanic islands.

Outbreak detection algorithms for seasonal disease data : a case study using Ross River virus disease

Background Detection of outbreaks is an important part of disease surveillance. Although many algorithms have been designed for detecting outbreaks, few have been specifically assessed against diseases that have distinct seasonal incidence patterns, such as those caused by vector-borne pathogens. Methods We applied five previously reported outbreak detection algorithms to Ross River virus (RRV) disease data (1991-2007) for the four local government areas (LGAs) of Brisbane, Emerald, Redland and Townsville in Queensland, Australia. The methods used were the Early Aberration Reporting System (EARS) C1, C2 and C3 methods, negative binomial cusum (NBC), historical limits method (HLM), Poisson outbreak detection (POD) method and the purely temporal SaTScan analysis. Seasonally-adjusted variants of the NBC and SaTScan methods were developed. Some of the algorithms were applied using a range of parameter values, resulting in 17 variants of the five algorithms. Results The 9,188 RRV disease notifications that occurred in the four selected regions over the study period showed marked seasonality, which adversely affected the performance of some of the outbreak detection algorithms. Most of the methods examined were able to detect the same major events. The exception was the seasonally-adjusted NBC methods that detected an excess of short signals. The NBC, POD and temporal SaTScan algorithms were the only methods that consistently had high true positive rates and low false positive and false negative rates across the four study areas. The timeliness of outbreak signals generated by each method was also compared but there was no consistency across outbreaks and LGAs. Conclusions This study has highlighted several issues associated with applying outbreak detection algorithms to seasonal disease data. In lieu of a true gold standard, a quantitative comparison is difficult and caution should be taken when interpreting the true positives, false positives, sensitivity and specificity.

New insights from IODP Expedition 340 offshore Montserrat: First drilling of large volcanic island landslides

Montserrat now provides one of the most complete datasets for understanding the character and tempo of hazardous events at volcanic islands. Much of the erupted material ends up offshore, and this offshore record may be easier to date due to intervening hemiplegic sediments between event beds. The offshore dataset includes the first scientific drilling of volcanic island landslides during IODP Expedition 340, together with an unusually comprehensive set of shallow sediment cores and 2-D and 3-D seismic surveys. Most recently in 2013, Remotely Operated Vehicle (ROV) dives mapped and sampled the surface of the main landslide deposits. This contribution aims to provide an overview of key insights from ongoing work on IODP Expedition 340 Sites offshore Montserrat.Key objectives are to understand the composition (and hence source), emplacement mechanism (and hence tsunami generation) of major landslides, together with their frequency and timing relative to volcanic eruption cycles. The most recent major collapse event is Deposit 1, which involved ~1.8 km cubed of material and produced a blocky deposit at ~12-14ka. Deposit 1 appears to have involved not only the volcanic edifice, but also a substantial component of a fringing bioclastic shelf, and material locally incorporated from the underlying seafloor. This information allows us to test how first-order landslide morphology (e.g. blocky or elongate lobes) is related to first-order landslide composition. Preliminary analysis suggests that Deposit 1 occurred shortly before a second major landslide on the SW of the island (Deposit 5). It may have initiated English's Crater, but was not associated with a major change in magma composition. An associated turbidite-stack suggests it was emplaced in multiple stages, separated by at least a few hours and thus reducing the tsunami magnitude. The ROV dives show that mega-blocks in detail comprise smaller-scale breccias, which can travel significant distances without complete disintegration. Landslide Deposit 2 was emplaced at ~130ka, and is more voluminous (~8.4km cubed). It had a much more profound influence on the magmatic system, as it was linked to a major explosive mafic eruption and formation of a new volcanic centre (South Soufriere Hills) on the island. Site U1395 confirms a hypothesis based on the site survey seismic data that Deposit 2 includes a substantial component of pre-existing seafloor sediment. However, surprisingly, this pre-existing seafloor sediment in the lower part of Deposit 2 at Site U1395 is completely undeformed and flat lying, suggesting that Site U1395 penetrated a flat lying block. Work to date material from the upper part of U1396, U1395 and U1394 will also be summarised. This work is establishing a chronostratigraphy of major events over the last 1 Ma, with particularly detailed constraints during the last ~250ka. This is helping us to understand whether major landslides are related to cycles of volcanic eruptions.

Enhanced Metastatic Potential in a 3D Tissue Scaffold toward a Comprehensive in Vitro Model for Breast Cancer Metastasis

Metastasis is clinically the most challenging and lethal aspect of breast cancer. While animal-based xenograft models are expensive and time-consuming, conventional two-dimensional (2D) cell culture systems fail to mimic in vivo signaling. In this study we have developed a three-dimensional (3D) scaffold system that better mimics the topography and mechanical properties of the breast tumor, thus recreating the tumor microenvironment in vitro to study breast cancer metastasis. Porous poly(e-caprolactone) (PCL) scaffolds of modulus 7.0 +/- 0.5 kPa, comparable to that of breast tumor tissue were fabricated, on which MDA-MB-231 cells proliferated forming tumoroids. A comparative gene expression analysis revealed that cells growing in the scaffolds expressed increased levels of genes implicated in the three major events of metastasis, viz., initiation, progression, and the site-specific colonization compared to cells grown in conventional 2D tissue culture polystyrene (TCPS) dishes. The cells cultured in scaffolds showed increased invasiveness and sphere efficiency in vitro and increased lung metastasis in vivo. A global gene expression analysis revealed a significant increase in the expression of genes involved in cell cell and cell matrix interactions and tissue remodeling, cancer inflammation, and the PI3K/Akt, Wnt, NF-kappaB, and HIFI signaling pathways all of which are implicated in metastasis. Thus, culturing breast cancer cells in 3D scaffolds that mimic the in vivo tumor-like microenvironment enhances their metastatic potential. This system could serve as a comprehensive in vitro model to investigate the manifold mechanisms of breast cancer metastasis.

As Associações de criminalidade à figura do camelô: um estudo através da Teoria Ator-Rede.

Neste texto gostaria de apresentar uma investigação sobre as associações de criminalidade investidas na figura do camelô através da Teoria Ator-rede. Diante da realização de dois grandes eventos, a Copa do Mundo em 2014 e os jogos Olímpicos em 2016, foi estabelecido um plano municipal de ordem pública com diagnósticos e proposições a fim de gerir a cidade do Rio de Janeiro. Uma dessas proposições envolve a política do Choque de Ordem que parte do princípio que a desordem urbana é um deflagrador de atividades criminosas. Assim, iniciou-se um processo de higienização das ruas da cidade, que refletiu sobre o trabalho do camelô. Logo, as políticas públicas promovidas para esta cidade aparecem como foco de discussão neste trabalho. Principalmente, como o tema da criminalidade se vincula ou é vinculado à figura do camelô.

Coleta seletiva em eventos de grande porte: estudo de caso.

O tema do presente estudo é a coleta seletiva de materiais recicláveis gerados em eventos de grande porte, como shows, considerando que esta e demais práticas ambientais devem ser expostas ao público por meio das mídias disponíveis, utilizando-as como instrumentos para a comunicação ambiental. A dissertação teve como objetivo avaliar a gestão de resíduos sólidos em uma importante casa de shows na cidade do Rio de Janeiro. Para isso foram utilizadas como etapas metodológicas: a pesquisa bibliográfica nas áreas de gestão de resíduos sólidos, educação ambiental, marketing, comunicação e responsabilidade sócio-ambiental corporativa e um estudo de caso para levantamento (quantitativo e qualitativo) dos resíduos produzidos. A relevância deste trabalho está na oportunidade ainda não explorada de se implantar e divulgar práticas socioambientais em shows, fazendo disso simultaneamente um papel de comunicação para educação ambiental e marketing para a empresa, utilizando a influência que as mídias exercem na opinião e comportamento da sociedade. Este estudo constata que a casa de shows apresenta potencial para a implantação de coleta seletiva, tendo em seus resíduos cerca de 85% de material reciclável livre de contaminação por resíduos orgânicos. Esta pode ser uma importante fonte de material para as organizações de catadores, além de atender aos princípios legais de destinação de resíduos sólidos recicláveis. A empresa pode ainda exercer um papel de agente transformador da opinião pública, contribuindo para a formação de cidadãos críticos e atuantes e servir de referência para o setor de eventos.

Estádio do Maracanã: construção e reconstrução de significados

O objetivo geral desse estudo é analisar as representações do estádio Jornalista Mário Filho, Maracanã, em diferentes momentos de sua história. Corroborando o argumento de Tuan (1983, p. 151) de que o espaço transforma-se em lugar à medida que adquire definição e significado, a tese central é a de que, o Maracanã se torna um lugar para os torcedores a partir de uma combinação de significados. Estabelecemos objetivos específicos que nortearam quatro artigos com o intuito de contemplar diferentes fases pelas quais o estádio passou nos permitindo verificar a construção de significados sobre o Maracanã. O primeiro deles analisa as reportagens veiculadas pelos jornais sobre o estádio do Maracanã, desde o período do projeto inicial até a sua inauguração (1947 a 1950). O segundo descreve e analisa as formas pelas quais os torcedores experienciaram o Maracanã, possibilitando a construção de significados sobre o estádio. O terceiro artigo tem como objetivo a análise da construção da memória dos torcedores sobre o Maracanã. Por fim, analisam-se as configurações que foram se apresentando na sociedade acarretando a reestruturação do estádio e estabelecendo novas percepções sobre o mesmo. O estudo se justifica pela possibilidade de entendermos como se constrói, a partir das relações entre indivíduo e espaço, um lugar simbólico, principalmente quando o país se prepara para receber grandes eventos sendo obrigado a construir/reconstruir espaços esportivos. Como suporte metodológico, utilizamos a análise do conteúdo (BARDIN, 2011) e o estudo de caso (THOMAS; NELSON, 2002). Os dados foram coletados através de entrevistas semiestruturadas, por meio de análise de documentos e por observação sistemática. Concluímos que fatores como a arquitetura do Maracanã, o decurso do tempo e as experiências vividas no seu interior contribuíram para que o estádio tenha se tornado um lugar afetivo e simbólico para os torcedores cariocas.

An atlas of reproductive development in rockfishes, genus Sebastes

The genus Sebastes consists of over 100 fish species, all of which are viviparous and long-lived. Previous studies have presented schemes on the reproductive biology of a single targeted species of the genus Sebastes, but all appear to possess a similar reproductive biology as evidenced by this and other studies. This atlas stages major events during spermatogenesis, oogenesis, and embryogenesis, including atresia, in six species of Sebastes (S. alutus, S. elongatus, S. helvomaculatus, S. polyspinis, S. proriger, and S. zacentrus). Our study suggests that the male reproductive cycle of Sebastes is characterized by 11 phases of testicular development, with 10 stages of sperm development and 1 stage of spermatozoa atresia. Ovarian development was divided into 12 phases, with 10 stages of oocyte development, 1 stage of embryonic development, and 1 stage of oocyte atresia. Embryonic development up to parturition was divided into 33 stages following the research of Yamada and Kusakari (1991). Reproductive development of all six species examined followed the developmental classifications listed above which may apply to all species of Sebastes regardless of the number of broods produced annually. Multiple brooders vary in that not all ova are fertilized and progress to embryos; a proportion of ova are arrested at the pre-vitellogenic stage. Reproductive stage examples shown in this atlas use S. elongates for spermatic development, S. proriger for oocyte development, and S. alutus for embryological development, because opportunistic sampling only permitted complete analysis of each respective developmental phase for those species. The results of this study and the proposed reproductive phases complement the recommended scheme submitted by Brown-Peterson et al. (2011), who call for a standardization of terminology for describing reproductive development of fishes.

The numerical modelling of multi-physics phenomena: The shape casting process

In this paper a computer simulation tool capable of modelling multi-physics processes in complex geometry has been developed and applied to the casting process. The quest for high-quality complex casting components demanded by the aerospace and automobile industries, requires more precise numerical modelling techniques and one that need to be generic and modular in its approach to modelling multi-processes problems. For such a computer model to be successful in shape casting, the complete casting process needs to be addressed, the major events being:-• Filling of hot liquid metal into a cavity mould • Solidification and latent heat evolution of liquid metal • Convection currents generated in liquid metal by thermal gradients • Deformation of cast and stress development in solidified metal • Macroscopic porosity formation The above phenomena combines the analysis of fluid flow, heat transfer, change of phase and thermal stress development. None of these events can be treated in isolation as they inexorably interact with each other in a complex way. Also conditions such as design of running system, location of feeders and chills, moulding materials and types of boundary conditions can all affect on the final cast quality and must be appropriately represented in the model.

Famílias envelhecidas: percursos e diversidade

O conhecimento sobre famílias envelhecidas é ainda escasso. Neste âmbito, a pesquisa tem incidido nos cuidados familiares a idosos dependentes, focando os problemas de saúde, dependência funcional e declínio cognitivo. Esta investigação pretende contribuir para aprofundar o conhecimento sobre as famílias envelhecidas, assumindo uma perspetiva normativa e desenvolvimental, e contemplando a diversidade de contextos de vida e envelhecimento. O capítulo 1 centra casais compostos por pessoas idosas, e tem por objetivos: caracterizar a estrutura, dinâmica e valores do agregado familiar dos casais idosos; evidenciar valores e dinâmica relacional dos casais idosos. A amostra compreende 136 participantes, a quem foi administrado um questionário sobre a fase última do ciclo de vida familiar (Cerveny,1997). A análise de dados efetuou-se com recurso ao programa de análise de dados estatística SPSS 17.1. Os resultados indicam que os casais vivem predominantemente em casal, com uma dinâmica relacional do agregado caracterizada pelo respeito, diálogo e carinho; dinâmica relacional do casal caracterizada por clima afetuoso, amizade e diálogo, e valores assentes no amor, diálogo e convívio familiar. A dinâmica relacional do casal é pautada por atividades de lazer realizadas em conjunto e vida sexual tão boa como antes; os valores dão ao casamento significados de realização pessoal e perpetuação através dos filhos na juventude, e adaptação e descoberta na velhice. O capítulo 2 foca a construção da integridade familiar considerando a diversidade de contextos socioeconómicos (pessoas idosas que viveram em contexto de pobreza ao longo da vida), socioculturais (ex-emigrantes portugueses) e novas formas de famílias (homens homossexuais). Foi aplicada uma entrevista semiestruturada (King & Wynne, 2004) a uma amostra de 12, 20 e 10 pessoas, respetivamente. A análise de dados foi efetuada com base na análise de conteúdo com recurso a juízes independentes baseada na grounded theory, contudo no caso do contexto socioeconómico recorreu-se ao programa de análise de dados qualitativa N-Vivo 7. Os resultados sugerem que a diversidade de contextos analisada coloca desafios à rutura familiar o que pode potenciar o caminho da desconexão e alienação. Contudo, o contexto das significações exerce um papel fundamental na construção da integridade familiar. A redefinição da identidade associada a uma filosofia de vida que enfatize as forças em vez dos fracassos parece determinar a construção da integridade familiar, contudo existem especificidades. Relativamente ao contexto socioeconómico: as pessoas idosas no caminho da integridade revelam um sentido de autovalorização (ter vivido uma vida significativa) apesar da pobreza; as pessoas idosas no caminho da desconexão/alienação alimentam sentimentos de insignificância devido à escassez de recursos económicos. Ainda neste contexto, os valores (princípios de conduta) reinterpretam a identidade ao longo da vida e permitem compreender que a integridade familiar ocorre quando ser pobre é encarado pelas conquistas; a desconexão/alienação emerge quando ser pobre incorpora sentimentos de desvalorização e inferioridade. No contexto sociocultural, as pessoas idosas ex-emigrantes cujo processo de emigração se desenvolveu em família (a família está envolvida no processo de emigração e funciona como um pilar desde a fase de decisão até ao regresso) desenvolveram uma filosofia de vida assente numa atitude ativa e solidária e estão em integridade familiar; as pessoas em desconexão relatam episódios de conflito familiar que marcam a trajetória de emigração, e uma atitude passiva na resolução desses conflitos até à atualidade; as pessoas em alienação familiar, cujo processo de emigração se desenrolou de forma solitária, desenvolvem uma filosofia de vida assente na luta solitária: a sua força e identidade estão em enfrentar tudo sem precisar de ninguém. Relativamente às novas formas de família, a integridade familiar evolui desde a revelação da homossexualidade (em idade jovem) e conclui-se na velhice quando a homossexualidade se torna um legado. A desconexão parece evoluir da luta constante da falha da aceitação da homossexualidade pela família e outras pessoas significativas. O capítulo 3 analisa as trajetórias de vida de homens homossexuais atualmente idosos, para compreender melhor a influência da homossexualidade e os principais eventos. Adotou-se a técnica da linha de acontecimentos de vida (Acquaviva et al., 2007), aplicada a 10 participantes com 60 anos ou mais. Os resultados sugerem que vários eventos de vida influenciam o curso de vida: i) o autoconhecimento da homossexualidade; ii) tentar passar por heterossexual; iii) assumir a homossexualidade (explicita ou implicitamente); iv) sentir limitações e desafios relacionados com o ser idoso e homossexual. O capítulo 4 procurou alargar a perspetiva do envelhecimento considerando uma abordagem transcultural. Assim, realizou-se um estudo numa comunidade indígena (Guarani Mbya, Brasil). Neste estudo analisase o modo de viver e ser idoso nessa comunidade. A amostra compreende 6 participantes a quem foi administrada uma entrevista aberta. Este estudo contemplou ainda a observação com registo etnográfico e realização de um diário de bordo. A análise de conteúdo efetuou-se com apoio do software de dados qualitativa WebQDA 1.4.3. Os resultados sugerem o papel das pessoas idosas na preservação de uma cultura ágrafa, garantindo que as tradições estejam presentes nas gerações atuais através da oralidade. A adoção de lentes normativas no estudo e compreensão das famílias envelhecidas permite compreender as tarefas desenvolvimentais e normativas no fim da vida.

A segurança no terrorismo e na indústria dos eventos

Nowadays, safety and security regarding the tourism and events industries are a fundamental subject to society. Portugal’s tourism has significantly increased its number of visitors, whether due to the increasing number of cruisers docking in Lisbon, or due to visitors arriving by air, travelling the country from North to South and staying in the most varied accommodation units. Issues like human security and internal security of the different countries, even the security in the world, as development factors of a modern society, are discussed on a daily basis. On the contrary, few deal with tourism and major events security as being part of internal security, as well as the existing barriers tourism encounters to integrate the system for fighting terrorism. Although two distinct activities, they are complementary and may influence the country’s economy, provided that they can offer certainty to all actors involved. It is this substance that organised crime groups look for when planning terror acts. Therefore, as tourism can offer deception and shelter opportunities and events the theatre of a possible attack, those events assemble all the necessary conditions for an attack to achieve its goals.

Population Normalization with Ammonium in Wastewater-Based Epidemiology: Application to Illicit Drug Monitoring

Fluctuations in ammonium (NH4+), measured as NH4-N loads using an ion-selective electrode installed at the inlet of a sewage treatment plant, showed a distinctive pattern which was associated to weekly (i.e., commuters) and seasonal (i.e., holidays) fluctuations of the population. Moreover, population size estimates based on NH4-N loads were lower compared to census data. Diurnal profiles of benzoylecgonine (BE) and 11-nor-9-carboxy-Δ9-tetrahydrocannabinol (THC-COOH) were shown to be strongly correlated to NH4-N. Characteristic patterns, which reflect the prolonged nocturnal activity of people during the weekend, could be observed for BE, cocaine, and a major metabolite of MDMA (i.e., 4-hydroxy-3-methoxymethamphetamine). Additional 24 h composite samples were collected between February and September 2013. Per-capita loads (i.e., grams per day per 1000 inhabitants) were computed using census data and NH4-N measurements. Normalization with NH4-N did not modify the overall pattern, suggesting that the magnitude of fluctuations in the size of the population is negligible compared to those of illicit drug loads. Results show that fluctuations in the size of the population over longer periods of time or during major events can be monitored using NH4-N loads: either using raw NH4-N loads or population size estimates based on NH4-N loads, if information about site-specific NH4-N population equivalents is available.

Le développement économique régional, la politique et les disparités régionales des grands territoires : le cas du Canada et de la Chine

Résumé Depuis le début des années 1990, la recherche sur le développement régional a pris une importance considérable dans les disciplines de l’économie et de la géographie dans la plupart des pays. De nombreuses études ont été consacrées à ce sujet et l’on constate une approche analytique de plus en plus sophistiquée. Que les économies pauvres ont tendance à converger vers les pays riches, ou bien à diverger au fil du temps est une question qui a attiré l'attention des décideurs et des universitaires depuis quelques décennies. Convergence ou de divergence économique est un sujet d'intérêt et de débat, non seulement pour valider ou non les deux modèles principaux de croissance qui sont considérés comme concurrent (l’approche néo-classique et celle des approches de croissance endogène), mais aussi pour ses implications pour les publiques politiques. En se basant sur une analyse des politiques de développement régional et des analyses statistiques de la convergence et des disparités régionales, les objectifs de cette thèse sont de tenter de fournir une explication des différents processus et des modèles de développement économique régional poursuivis dans le cas de territoires immenses en utilisant le Canada et la Chine comme études de cas, d'entreprendre une analyse des différents facteurs et des forces motrices qui sous-tendent le développement régional dans ces deux pays, et d'explorer à la fois les réussites et les échecs apparents dans les politiques de développement régional en comparant et contrastant les expériences de développement régional et les modèles de ces deux pays. A fin d'atteindre cet objectif, la recherche utilise une approche multi-scalaire et des méthodes de mesure multidimensionnelle dans le cadre des analyses sur les disparités « régionales » entre les macro régions (sous-ensembles de provinces) des deux pays, des provinces et des régions urbaines sélectionnées, dans le but ultime d’identifier des problèmes existants en termes de développement régional et de pouvoir proposer des solutions. Les étapes principales de la recherche sont : 1. La cueillette des données statistiques pour le Canada et la Chine (incluant les provinces de Québec et de Xinjiang) pour une gamme d’indicateurs (voir ci-dessous). 2. D’entreprendre une analyse de chaque dimension dans les deux juridictions: Population (p.ex. composition, structure, changement); Ressources (p. ex. utilisation, exploitation de l’énergie); Environnement (p.ex. la pollution); et le Développement socioéconomique (p.ex. le développement et la transformation des secteurs clé, et les modèles de développement rural et urbain), et les disparités changeantes par rapport à ces dimensions. 3. La définition d’une typologie de différents types de région en fonction de leurs trajectoires de développement, ce qui servira pour critiquer l’hypothèse centre-périphérie. 4. Le choix d’une région métropolitaine dans chaque juridiction (province). 5. D’entreprendre une analyse temporelle des événements clé (politiques, investissements) dans chaque région et les facteurs impliqués dans chaque événement, en utilisant l’information documentaire générale et des agences institutionnelles impliqués actuellement et dans un passée récent. Cette étude a tenté d'expliquer les schémas et les processus des deux économies, ainsi que la présentation d'études de cas qui illustrent et examinent les différences dans les deux économies à partir de l’échelle nationale jusqu’au niveau régional et provincial et aussi pour certaines zones urbaines. Cette étude a essayé de répondre aux questions de recherche comme: Est-il vrai que les pays avec des plus grandes territoires sont associés avec des plus grandes disparités interrégionales? Quel est le résultat des comparaisons entre pays développés et pays en développement? Quels sont les facteurs les plus importants dans le développement économique de vastes territoires dans les pays développés et pays en développement? Quel est le mécanisme de convergence et de divergence dans les pays développés et, respectivement, les pays en développement? Dans l'introduction à la thèse, le cadre général de l'étude est présenté, suivie dans le chapitre 1 d'une discussion sur les théories et les concepts utilisés dans la littérature théorique principale qui est pertinent à l'étude. Le chapitre 2 décrit la méthodologie de recherche. Le chapitre 3 présente une vue d'ensemble des politiques de développement économique régional et les programmes du Canada et de la Chine dans des périodes différentes à différentes échelles. Au chapitre 4, la convergence des deux pays à l'échelle nationale et la convergence provinciale pour chaque pays sont examinés en utilisant différentes méthodes de mesure telles que les méthodes traditionnelles, la convergence bêta et la convergence sigma. Dans le chapitre le plus complexe, le chapitre 5, les analyses comparatives sont présentées à l'aide de données statistiques, à partir des analyses des cas régionaux et provinciaux retenus des deux pays. Au chapitre 6, ces dispositions sont complétées par une analyse des régions urbaines choisies, qui permet également des aperçus sur les régions les plus périphériques. Dans la recherche proposée pour cette thèse, la politique, la population, le revenu, l'emploi, la composition industrielle, l'investissement, le commerce et le facteur de la migration sont également pris en compte comme facteurs importants de l'analyse régionale compte tenu de la superficie du territoire des deux pays et les différences de population entre eux. Cette thèse a évalué dans quelle mesure les politiques gouvernementales ont réussi à induire la convergence régionale ou ont encore ont creusé davantage les disparités régionales, ce qui implique nécessairement une évaluation de la durabilité des patrons et des programmes de développement régional. Cette étude a également mis l'accent sur les disparités régionales et la politique de développement régional, les comparaisons entre pays, pour mesurer la convergence entre les pays et entre les régions, y compris l'analyse spatiale, d'identifier les facteurs les plus actifs tels que la population, les ressources, la politique, l'urbanisation, les migrations, l'ouverture économique et leurs différents rôles dans le développement économique de ces grands territoires (au Canada et Chine). Les résultats empiriques et les processus de convergence et de divergence offrent un cadre intéressant pour l'examen de la trajectoire de développement régionales et les disparités régionales dans les deux économies. L'approche adoptée a révélé les différentes mosaïques complexes du développement régional dans les deux pays. Les résultats de cette étude ont démontré que la disparité en termes de revenu régional est une réalité dans chaque zone géographique, et que les causes sont nombreuses et complexes. Les deux économies ont certains parallèles dans la mise en œuvre des politiques de développement économique régional, mais il existe des différences importantes aussi et elles se sont développées à différentes vitesses. Les deux économies se sont développées depuis la Seconde Guerre mondiale, mais la Chine a connu une croissance rapide que le Canada comme témoignent de nombreux indicateurs depuis 1980. Cependant, la Chine est maintenant confrontée à un certain nombre de problèmes économiques et sociaux, y compris les disparités régionales marquées, un fossé toujours croissant entre les revenus ruraux et urbains, une population vieillissante, le chômage, la pauvreté et la dégradation rapide de l'environnement avec toujours plus de demandes en énergie. Le développement économique régional en Chine est plus déséquilibré. Le Canada accuse un degré de disparités régionales et provinciales moins important que la Chine. Dans les cas provinciaux, il existe d'importantes différences et de disparités dans la structure économique et spatiale du Québec et du Xinjiang. Les disparités infra provinciales sont plus grandes que celles à l’échelle des provinces et des grandes régions (des sous-ensembles de provinces). Les mécanismes de convergence et de divergence dans les deux pays sont différents. Les résultats empiriques et les processus de convergence et de divergence offrent un cadre intéressant pour l'examen de la trajectoire de développement régionale et les disparités régionales dans les deux économies. Cette étude démontre également que l'urbanisation (les métropoles et les villes) s’avère être le facteur le plus actif et contribue à l'économie régionale dans ces grands territoires. L'ouverture a joué un rôle important dans les économies des deux pays. La migration est un facteur majeur dans la stimulation de l'économie des deux pays mais de façons différentes. Les résultats empiriques démontrent que les disparités régionales ne peuvent pas être évitées et elles existent presque partout. Il n'y a pas une formule universelle et de politiques spécifiques sont de mise pour chaque région. Mais il semble possible pour les décideurs politiques nationaux et régionaux d’essayer de maintenir l'écart à une échelle raisonnable pour éviter l'instabilité sociale.