Increasing Critical Sensitivity of the Load/Unload Response Ratio before Large Earthquakes with Identified Stress Acclumulation Pattern

The Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR) method is proposed for short-to-intermediate-term earthquake prediction [Yin, X.C., Chen, X.Z., Song, Z.P., Yin, C., 1995. A New Approach to Earthquake Prediction — The Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR) Theory, Pure Appl. Geophys., 145, 701–715]. This method is based on measuring the ratio between Benioff strains released during the time periods of loading and unloading, corresponding to the Coulomb Failure Stress change induced by Earth tides on optimally oriented faults. According to the method, the LURR time series usually climb to an anomalously high peak prior to occurrence of a large earthquake. Previous studies have indicated that the size of critical seismogenic region selected for LURR measurements has great influence on the evaluation of LURR. In this study, we replace the circular region usually adopted in LURR practice with an area within which the tectonic stress change would mostly affect the Coulomb stress on a potential seismogenic fault of a future event. The Coulomb stress change before a hypothetical earthquake is calculated based on a simple back-slip dislocation model of the event. This new algorithm, by combining the LURR method with our choice of identified area with increased Coulomb stress, is devised to improve the sensitivity of LURR to measure criticality of stress accumulation before a large earthquake. Retrospective tests of this algorithm on four large earthquakes occurred in California over the last two decades show remarkable enhancement of the LURR precursory anomalies. For some strong events of lesser magnitudes occurred in the same neighborhoods and during the same time periods, significant anomalies are found if circular areas are used, and are not found if increased Coulomb stress areas are used for LURR data selection. The unique feature of this algorithm may provide stronger constraints on forecasts of the size and location of future large events.

Load-Unload Response Ratio and Accelerating Moment/Energy Release Critical Region Scaling and Earthquake Prediction

The main idea of the Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) is that when a system is stable, its response to loading corresponds to its response to unloading, whereas when the system is approaching an unstable state, the response to loading and unloading becomes quite different. High LURR values and observations of Accelerating Moment/Energy Release (AMR/AER) prior to large earthquakes have led different research groups to suggest intermediate-term earthquake prediction is possible and imply that the LURR and AMR/AER observations may have a similar physical origin. To study this possibility, we conducted a retrospective examination of several Australian and Chinese earthquakes with magnitudes ranging from 5.0 to 7.9, including Australia's deadly Newcastle earthquake and the devastating Tangshan earthquake. Both LURR values and best-fit power-law time-to-failure functions were computed using data within a range of distances from the epicenter. Like the best-fit power-law fits in AMR/AER, the LURR value was optimal using data within a certain epicentral distance implying a critical region for LURR. Furthermore, LURR critical region size scales with mainshock magnitude and is similar to the AMR/AER critical region size. These results suggest a common physical origin for both the AMR/AER and LURR observations. Further research may provide clues that yield an understanding of this mechanism and help lead to a solid foundation for intermediate-term earthquake prediction.

Simulation of the Load-Unload Response Ratio and Critical Sensitivity in the Lattice Solid Model

The Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) method is an intermediate-term earthquake prediction approach that has shown considerable promise. It involves calculating the ratio of a specified energy release measure during loading and unloading where loading and unloading periods are determined from the earth tide induced perturbations in the Coulomb Failure Stress on optimally oriented faults. In the lead-up to large earthquakes, high LURR values are frequently observed a few months or years prior to the event. These signals may have a similar origin to the observed accelerating seismic moment release (AMR) prior to many large earthquakes or may be due to critical sensitivity of the crust when a large earthquake is imminent. As a first step towards studying the underlying physical mechanism for the LURR observations, numerical studies are conducted using the particle based lattice solid model (LSM) to determine whether LURR observations can be reproduced. The model is initialized as a heterogeneous 2-D block made up of random-sized particles bonded by elastic-brittle links. The system is subjected to uniaxial compression from rigid driving plates on the upper and lower edges of the model. Experiments are conducted using both strain and stress control to load the plates. A sinusoidal stress perturbation is added to the gradual compressional loading to simulate loading and unloading cycles and LURR is calculated. The results reproduce signals similar to those observed in earthquake prediction practice with a high LURR value followed by a sudden drop prior to macroscopic failure of the sample. The results suggest that LURR provides a good predictor for catastrophic failure in elastic-brittle systems and motivate further research to study the underlying physical mechanisms and statistical properties of high LURR values. The results provide encouragement for earthquake prediction research and the use of advanced simulation models to probe the physics of earthquakes.

美国西部地区加卸载响应比的时空扫描及其地震趋势研究

加卸载响应比理论是近年来提出的地震预报新方法,在中国大陆地区的实际地震预测中取得了较好的效果.为了研究加卸载响应比理论是否适用于不同地质条件的地震,是否具有普适性,选择了典型的美国圣安德烈斯断层带及其周围地区的地震作为研究对象,计算分析了美国西部地区加卸载响应比的变化情况,并对该地区未来的地震趋势进行了研究.

Critical Sensitivity and Trans-Scale Fluctuations in Catastrophic Rupture

Rupture in the heterogeneous crust appears to be a catastrophe transition. Catastrophic rupture sensitively depends on the details of heterogeneity and stress transfer on multiple scales. These are difficult to identify and deal with. As a result, the threshold of earthquake-like rupture presents uncertainty. This may be the root of the difficulty of earthquake prediction. Based on a coupled pattern mapping model, we represent critical sensitivity and trans-scale fluctuations associated with catastrophic rupture. Critical sensitivity means that a system may become significantly sensitive near catastrophe transition. Trans-scale fluctuations mean that the level of stress fluctuations increases strongly and the spatial scale of stress and damage fluctuations evolves from the mesoscopic heterogeneity scale to the macroscopic scale as the catastrophe regime is approached. The underlying mechanism behind critical sensitivity and trans-scale fluctuations is the coupling effect between heterogeneity and dynamical nonlinearity. Such features may provide clues for prediction of catastrophic rupture, like material failure and great earthquakes. Critical sensitivity may be the physical mechanism underlying a promising earthquake forecasting method, the load-unload response ratio (LURR).

加卸载响应比在伊朗地区地震活动性研究中的应用

本文应用加卸载响应比理论,分别对2005年2月22日伊朗东南部克尔曼省扎兰德MS6.4地震和2006年3月31日伊朗西部洛雷斯坦省MS6.1地震2个震例进行了时程曲线分析;并用加卸载响应比方法对伊朗地区进行了时空扫描。通过考察加卸载响应比异常区域的演化过程,对该地区未来的地震活动性进行了研究。

美国西部地区加卸载响应比的时空演化及地震活动性分析

美国西部地区位于环太平洋地震带,该地震带是地球上地震活动最为强烈的地带,为了研究该地区的地震活动性,对该地区进行了加卸载响应比的时空扫描,考察了该地区加卸载响应比异常区域的时空演化;并用2001—2006年的扫描结果与次年实际发生的5级以上地震进行对比,发现绝大部分的强震都发生在前一年的预测区域内。根据加卸载响应比的时空演化和该地区的最新扫描结果,对未来地震活动性进行了分析。

加卸载响应比(Load/Unload Response Ratio)、能量加速释放(AE/MR)的临界区尺度及地震预测

加卸载响应比理论的主要思路是 :系统在稳定状态时加载响应与卸载响应的比值与非稳定状态时加载响应与卸载响应的比值是完全不同的。大震前加卸载响应比升高和能量加速释放这两种现象可以用来对地震进行中期预报。同时 ,加卸载响应比理论和能量加速释放可能有相同的物理机制。为了验证这种地震预报方法的可行性 ,我们研究了几例发生在澳大利亚与中国 ,M 5 0～ 7 9之间的地震 ,其中包括破坏严重的澳大利亚纽卡斯尔地震和中国的唐山地震。我们利用以震源中心一定范围内的数据计算了震前的加卸载响应比和能量加速释放的幂律拟合。能量幂律加速释放存在一组最佳的拟合 ,一定范围内加卸载响应比达最大值表明加卸载响应比也有一个临界区尺度。进一步讲 ,加卸载响应比与能量加速释放的临界区尺度是相似的。这些结果表明加卸载响应比与能量加速释放有相同的物理机制。进一步的研究可能会对这种物理机制提供更好的解释 ,同时也能对地震的中期预报提供理论基础

利用固体点阵模型进行加卸载响应比的统计研究——兼论潮汐诱发与地震预测

为了验证Mora等人利用固体点阵模型研究加卸载响应比结果的统计稳定性,本文进行了统计实验。每种情况使用24组试件,每一个试件具有相同的宏观参数(潮汐扰动应力的振幅A、周期T、构造应力加载率k),但是粒子的排列方式不同。单轴压缩实验的结果表明:在灾变破坏发生以前的一定时间内,整体平均的加卸载响应比值明显升高,与大地震发生前观察到的加卸载响应比值异常升高是一致的。在剪切实验中,我们发现有两个参数控制着地震与潮汐应力的相关性。一个参数是A/(kT),该参数控制着最大地震率与扰动应力最大振幅的相角差。当该参数增加时,该相角差降低。另一个参数是AT/k,该参数控制着模型地震概率密度函数的高度。当这个参数增加时,概率密度函数变得又尖又狭窄,表明潮汐应力有很强的诱发作用。剪切实验中加卸载响应比的统计研究结果也表明,除了在潮汐诱发作用很强的情况下,卸载周期中数据缺乏导致加卸载响应比不能计算外,较大事件更容易出现在加卸载响应比的较高阶段,该结论更进一步支持加卸载响应比理论。

加卸载响应比的新进展

本文对此作简要介绍。主要有下三方面①预测效果好2004年发生在中国大陆有资料地区的ML≥5级地震共17次,其中15次落入用加卸载响应比方法于2003年底预测的区域内。②通过大量基础研究(包括数值模拟,岩石力学实验及统计细观损伤力学研究),使加卸载响应比理论(LURR)建立在一个比较牢靠的科学基础上。③LURR有很大的潜力和发展空间。未来的发展空间,除预测天然地震外,还可能对矿震、水库地震、滑坡等自然灾害,甚至其它自然系统以致社会系统的灾变作出预测。

加卸载响应比理论用于矿震预测的初步研究

加卸载响应比(LURR)理论是～种前景很好的中期地震预测方法，通常在强烈地震发生前的数月至l～2年I．URR出现高值，因而I。URR可以作为强烈天然地震的前兆，用此方法曾经成功地预测过Northridge地震(1 994年1月17日，M6．7，美国加州)，Nanto地震(1 996年9月11日，M6．6，日本)及不少发生在中国的天然地震。用房山煤矿1 992年8月至1993年7月的微震资料,计算了全年内7组M>2．1矿震前的加卸载响应比γ值，其中5组矿震前γ值均明显大于l(γ≥2 9)。以上结果表明，加卸载响应比理论有可能用于矿震的预测。

Spatio-Temporal Scanning and Statistical Test of the Accelerating Moment Release (AMR) Model Using Australian Earthquake Data

The Accelerating Moment Release (AMR) preceding earthquakes with magnitude above 5 in Australia that occurred during the last 20 years was analyzed to test the Critical Point Hypothesis. Twelve earthquakes in the catalog were chosen based on a criterion for the number of nearby events. Results show that seven sequences with numerous events recorded leading up to the main earthquake exhibited accelerating moment release. Two occurred near in time and space to other earthquakes preceded by AM R. The remaining three sequences had very few events in the catalog so the lack of AMR detected in the analysis may be related to catalog incompleteness. Spatio-temporal scanning of AMR parameters shows that 80% of the areas in which AMR occurred experienced large events. In areas of similar background seismicity with no large events, 10 out of 12 cases exhibit no AMR, and two others are false alarms where AMR was observed but no large event followed. The relationship between AMR and Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) was studied. Both methods predict similar critical region sizes, however, the critical point time using AMR is slightly earlier than the time of the critical point LURR anomaly.

固体力学进展及应用: 庆贺李敏华院士90华诞文集

《固体力学进展及应用：庆贺李敏华院士90华诞文集》收录了近代固体力学基础理论及其应用领域的重要科技成果和最新进展。作者是在同体力学领域工作多年的资深研究员，他们来自各行各业，有丰富的科研与丁作经验。他们提供的论文在相当程度上反映当前同体力学的发展现状与成就，并能看出发展趋势，对未来研究的课题选择有参考价值。《固体力学进展及应用：庆贺李敏华院士90华诞文集》还收集了李敏华院士的珍贵照片和纪念李敏华院士90华诞的庆贺和回忆文章，具有重要的史料价值。

非均匀脆性介质破坏的非平衡非线性统计演化

在白以龙小组已有工作的基础上，利用他们提出的简化的耦合斑图模型，几种可能的应力重分配模型在该论文中得到了进一步的讨论。通过不同的应力重分配模型，我们发现了该类演化过程中的三个一般规律，这些规律对于类似的动力过程的预报（例如，非均匀介质的破坏）提供了线索。首先，我们采用系综统计的方法，对相同宏观参量的大量样本的强度分布作了考察，结果表明：宏观强度的统计结果可以非常好的拟合为Weibull分布，且其Weibull模数与系统的大小、应力重分配的方式以及细观单元的强度分布相关。其次，在模拟过程中，对演化过程中的能量释放、损伤事件的统计发现，它们存在标度行为，而且这一标度主要归因于灾变点附近的损伤事件。这一现象表明这一转变具有某种临界特征。最后，对于我们模型中的动力学过程，我们发现了灾变预报的线索。从样本演化过程 中的能量释放规律来看，我们发现有两件事是有意义的：一是辨别出主破坏的发生点（在这一时修，系统中的大部分能量得到释放）；另外，给出转变点（整体稳定转化为演化诱致灾变）的预报。对前一个问题，我们通过考察系统在GS和EIC段的应力损伤涨落特征可以给出回答，通常，在EIC段的最大应力涨落（通常出现在主破坏过程中）比在GS过程中的最大应力涨落高一个数量级，根据这一差异，可以设立一个应力涨落的警戒值来判断系统所处的演化状态。对于后者，受到地震预报中采用的加卸载响应比（LURR）的启发，我们通过对系统中的外回转应力或损伤单元施加一个微增扰动，然后，根据系统在扰动前后释放的能量和相应的扰动，就可以得到临界敏感系数，临界敏感系数在灾变点附近迅速增加，在灾变点之迅速下降到1附近-我们称这一特征为临界敏感性。不同的应力重分配模型下得到了类似的现象，由此看来，对于 类似的动力学过程，临界敏感性是一个一般的特征。这一特征可能为我们对非均匀脆性介质的破坏提供线索。

Caserío y paisaje en los valles atlánticos del Macizo de Gorbea: transformaciones recientes

[EUS] Gorbeako Mendi Taldeko haran atlantiarretako baserria eta paisaia. Aldakuntza Gorbeako Mendi Taldeko haran atlantiarretan izandako paisai aldaketa berria aurkeztu nahi da, horretan XX. mendearen erdian nagusitzen zen baserri intentsibotik gaur egun askoz estentsiboagoa den beste batera pasatzeak zerikusi handia duelarik. Erabili diren informazio iturri printzipalak argazki aereoa eta inkesta izan dira.