On modifications to the long-term survival mixture model in the presence of competing risks

A mixture model for long-term survivors has been adopted in various fields such as biostatistics and criminology where some individuals may never experience the type of failure under study. It is directly applicable in situations where the only information available from follow-up on individuals who will never experience this type of failure is in the form of censored observations. In this paper, we consider a modification to the model so that it still applies in the case where during the follow-up period it becomes known that an individual will never experience failure from the cause of interest. Unless a model allows for this additional information, a consistent survival analysis will not be obtained. A partial maximum likelihood (ML) approach is proposed that preserves the simplicity of the long-term survival mixture model and provides consistent estimators of the quantities of interest. Some simulation experiments are performed to assess the efficiency of the partial ML approach relative to the full ML approach for survival in the presence of competing risks.

MDMA (Ecstasy) neurotoxicity: assessing and communicating the risks

MDMA (3,4-methylenedioxymethamphetamine) is an amphetamine analogue that produces euphoric and stimulant effects and a feeling of closeness towards others.1 and 2 For more than a decade, MDMA (colloquially known as “Ecstasy” or “E”) has been widely used by young adults as a dance-party drug. The usual recreational oral dose is 1-2 tablets (each containing about 60-120 mg of MDMA) a standard oral dose of 0·75–4·00 mg per kg in 60–80 kg people. MDMA is typically used once fortnightly or less because tolerance to the effects of MDMA develops rapidly. More frequent use requires larger doses to achieve the desired effects, but this increases the prevalence of unpleasant side-effects.3 A number of deaths have occurred as a result of malignant hyperthermia or idiosyncractic reactions to the drug, but these have been rare.4 MDMA is perceived by many users to be a safe drug.1 Few report the craving associated with opiates or cocaine3 and most MDMA users are aware of only mild and transient disruptions of functioning.3 and 5 AC Parrott and J Lasky, Ecstasy (MDMA) effects upon mood and cognition: before, during and after a Saturday night dance, Psychopharmacology 139 (1998), pp. 261–268. Full Text via CrossRef | View Record in Scopus | Cited By in Scopus (174)5 The perceived safety of MDMA is at odds with animal evidence of MDMA neurotoxicity, an increasing prevalence of hazardous patterns of use among recreational MDMA users, and emerging evidence of neurotoxicity among heavier MDMA users.

Screening for abdominal aortic aneurysm: lessons from a population-based study

Objectives: To test the acceptability of screening and to identify modifiable risk factors for abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) in men. Design: A trial of ultrasound screening for AAA in a population-based random sample of men aged 65-83 years, and a cross-sectional case-control comparison of men in the same sample. Participants: 12203 men who had an ultrasound examination of their abdominal aorta, and completed a questionnaire covering demographic, behavioural and medical factors. Main outcome measures: Prevalence of AAA, and independent associations of AAA with demographic, medical and lifestyle factors. Results: Invitations to screening produced a corrected response of 70.5%. The prevalence of AAAs (> 30 mm) rose from 4.8% in men aged 65-69 years to 10.8% in those aged 80-83 years. The overall prevalence of large (> 50 mm) aneurysms was 0.69%. In a multivariate logistic model Mediterranean-born men had a 40% lower risk of AAA (> 30 mm) compared with men born in Australia (odds ratio [OR], 0.6; 95% CI, 0.4-0.8), while ex-smokers had a significantly increased risk of AAA (OR, 2.3; 95% CI, 1.9-2.8), and current smokers had even higher risks. AAA was significantly associated with established coronary and peripheral arterial disease and a waist:hip ratio greater than 0.9; men who regularly undertook vigorous exercise had a lower risk (OR, 0.8; 95% CI, 0.7-1.0). Conclusion: Ultrasound screening for AAA is acceptable to men in the likely target population. AAA shares some but not all of the risk factors for occlusive vascular disease, but the scope for primary prevention of AAA in later life is limited.

Biomonitoring genotoxic risks under the urban weather conditions and polluted atmosphere in Santo Andre, SP, Brazil, through Trad-MCN bioassay

The present study was made to check if the Trad-MCN bioassay, developed with inflorescences of Tradescantia pallida cv. Purpurea, might discriminate genotoxic risks in areas of the city of Santo Andre (SE Brazil) contaminated by different air pollutants, and periods of the year when risks are higher, and to determine if the variations in the frequency of micronuclei (MCN) can be explained by environmental factors that characterize the stressful situation in each site. Potted plants were exposed in sites highly contaminated by ozone (Capuava and School) and in sites reached by high vehicular emissions (downtown and Celso Daniel Park). Pedroso Park, far from the polluted areas, was taken as reference. From September 2003 to September 2004, 20 young inflorescences were collected twice a week from each place and the frequencies of MCN were estimated. The environmental conditions observed in the polluted sites were stressful enough to promote an increase of MCN, mainly in sites reached by high vehicular emissions. But MCN rates in Capuava and at Celso Daniel Park could not be predicted only by pollutants which characterized the air contamination in these sites. More severe weather conditions, mainly low temperature, relative humidity and rainfall, caused an increase of MCN. Improvement of the biomonitoring system is recommended to minimize this negative influence of weather factors. (C) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Risk of Potential Drug-Drug Interactions among Brazilian Elderly A Population-Based, Cross-Sectional Study

Background: Drug-drug interactions (DDIs) are one of the main causes of adverse reactions related to medications, being responsible for up to 23% of hospital admissions. However, only a few studies have evaluated this problem in elderly Brazilians. Objectives: To determine the prevalence of potential DDIs (PDDIs) in community-dwelling elderly people in Brazil, analyse these interactions with regard to severity and clinical implications, and identify associated factors. Methods: A population-based cross-sectional study was carried out involving 2143 elderly (aged 60 years) residents of the metropolitan area of Sao Paulo, Brazil. Data were obtained from the SABE (Saude, Bem estar e Envelhecimento [Health, Well-Being, and Aging]) survey, which is a multicentre study carried out in seven countries of Latin America and the Caribbean, coordinated by the Pan-American Health Organization. PDDIs were analysed using a computerized program and categorized according to level of severity, onset, mechanism and documentation in the literature. The STATA software statistical package was used for data analysis, and logistic regression was conducted to determine whether variables were associated with PDDIs. Results: Analysis revealed that 568 (26.5%) of the elderly population included in the study were taking medications that could lead to a DDI. Almost two-thirds (64.4%) of the elderly population exposed to PDDIs were women, 50.7% were aged >= 75 years, 71.7% reported having fair or poor health and 65.8% took 2-5 medications. A total of 125 different PDDIs were identified; the treatment combination of an ACE inhibitor with a thiazide or loop diuretic (associated with hypotension) was the most frequent cause of PDDIs (n=322 patients; 56.7% of individuals with PDDIs). Analysis of the PDDIs revealed that 70.4% were of moderate severity, 64.8% were supported by good quality evidence and 56.8% were considered of delayed onset. The multivariate analysis showed that the risk of a PDDI was significantly increased among elderly individuals using six or more medications (odds ratio [OR] 3.37) and in patients with hypertension (OR 2.56), diabetes mellitus (OR 1.73) or heart problems (OR 3.36). Conclusions: Approximately one-quarter of the elderly population living in Sao Paulo could be taking two or more potentially interacting medicines. Polypharmacy predisposes elderly individuals to PDDIs. More than half of these drug combinations (57.6%, n = 72) were part of commonly employed treatment regimens and may be responsible for adverse reactions that compromise the safety of elderly individuals, especially at home. Educational initiatives are needed to avoid unnecessary risks.

Interchangeability among therapeutics equivalents of lamotrigine in the treatment of refractory epilepsy patients: risks and benefits

Introduction. Epilepsy is a condition characterized by signs and symptoms of neurological disorder. Lamotrigine has been widely used, mainly due to their greater tolerability and lower rate of drug interactions with other antiepileptic drugs however the newest antiepileptic drugs have high cost to patient. In Brazil there are three different sort of pharmaceutical equivalents (reference, generic and similar), and the Brazilian health care authorities offers to users the possibility to receive them free of charge. Moreover these pharmaceutical equivalents can change during the treatment of epilepsy because this authorities buy the cheapest by public tender two or three times a year. Aim. To evaluate the clinical and laboratory findings related to the most frequently used therapeutic equivalents of lamotrigine (reference drugs and similar products). Patients and methods. Two similar formulations (A and B) and one reference (C) were tested in nine epileptic refractory patients. The study was divided into three periods of 42 days, one for each formulation, and medical data about the frequency of seizures, the occurrence of side effects and measurement of plasma concentrations of lamotrigine were collected. Results. The average number of seizures/week and plasma concentration of lamotrigine for formulations A, B and C were not statistically significant differences. Three patients during the use of the formulation C presented mild and transitory side effects. Conclusion. Similar or reference drugs showed satisfactory results, however the interchangeability among the formulations raise the difficulty for the management of seizures in refractory epilepsy.

Association of bowel movement frequency and use of laxatives with the occurrence of symptomatic gallstone disease in a prospective study of women

OBJECTIVES: The authors prospectively examined the association between bowel movement frequency (used as a proxy for intestinal transit), laxative use, and the risk of symptomatic gallstone disease. METHODS: A total of 79,829 women, aged 36–61 yr, without a history of symptomatic gallstone disease and free of cancer, responded to a mailed questionnaire in 1982 that assessed bowel movement frequency and use of laxatives. Between 1984 and 1996, 4,443 incident cases of symptomatic gallstone disease were documented. Relative risks (RRs) of symptomatic gallstone disease and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated using logistic regression. RESULTS: After controlling for age and established risk factors, the multivariate RRs were, compared to women with daily bowel movements, 0.97 (95% CI 0.86–1.08) for women with bowel movements every third day or less, and 1.00 (95% CI 0.91–1.11) for women with bowel movement more than once daily. No trend was evident. As compared to women who never used laxatives in 1982, a significant modest inverse association was seen for monthly laxative use, with a multivariate RR of 0.84 (95% CI 0.72–0.98), and weekly to daily laxative use was associated with a RR of 0.88 (95% CI 0.78–1.02). CONCLUSIONS: These findings do not support an association between infrequent bowel movements and risk of symptomatic gallstone disease in women, and indicate that simple questions directed at bowel movement frequency are unlikely to enhance our ability to predict risk of symptomatic gallstone disease. The slightly inverse association between use of laxatives and risk of symptomatic gallstone disease may be due to a mechanism that is not related to bowel movement frequency.

Dietary fat intake and risk of type 2 diabetes in women

Background: The long-term relations between specific types of dietary fat and risk of type 2 diabetes remain unclear. Objective: Our objective was to examine the relations between dietary fat intakes and the risk of type 2 diabetes. Design: We prospectively followed 84204 women aged 34–59 y with no diabetes, cardiovascular disease, or cancer in 1980. Detailed dietary information was assessed at baseline and updated in 1984, 1986, and 1990 by using validated questionnaires. Relative risks of type 2 diabetes were obtained from pooled logistic models adjusted for nondietary and dietary covariates. Results: During 14 y of follow-up, 2507 incident cases of type 2 diabetes were documented. Total fat intake, compared with equivalent energy intake from carbohydrates, was not associated with risk of type 2 diabetes; for a 5% increase in total energy from fat, the relative risk (RR) was 0.98 (95% CI: 0.94, 1.02). Intakes of saturated or monounsaturated fatty acids were also not significantly associated with the risk of diabetes. However, for a 5% increase in energy from polyunsaturated fat, the RR was 0.63 (0.53, 0.76; P < 0.0001) and for a 2% increase in energy from trans fatty acids the RR was 1.39 (1.15, 1.67; P = 0.0006). We estimated that replacing 2% of energy from trans fatty acids isoenergetically with polyunsaturated fat would lead to a 40% lower risk (RR: 0.60; 95% CI: 0.48, 0.75). Conclusions: These data suggest that total fat and saturated and monounsaturated fatty acid intakes are not associated with risk of type 2 diabetes in women, but that trans fatty acids increase and polyunsaturated fatty acids reduce risk. Substituting nonhydrogenated polyunsaturated fatty acids for trans fatty acids would likely reduce the risk of type 2 diabetes substantially.

The future of cognitive and behavioral therapies in the prevention and early management of psychosis: Opportunities and risks

Behavioral and cognitive interventions for people with psychosis have a long and distinguished history, although the evidence for their application to young people remains limited. We anticipate that the next decades will show substantial research into psychological intervention for this population. Important targets will include the management of environmental stressors, reduction of substance misuse, and promotion of early treatment. Psychological management of positive symptoms, depression, and suicidal behavior will continue to be critical objectives. Important secondary prevention goals will be the retention of cognitive functioning, vocational options, social skills, and social network support, including appropriate family support. We expect primary prevention to include both universal programs and interventions for adolescents at particularly high risk. Technical innovations will include increasing use of Internet-based intervention and behavior cueing devices. Pressures for intervention brevity will continue, as will problems with the systematic delivery of effective procedures.

The calculation of accident risks in fitness for work assessments: diseases that can cause sudden incapacity

Risk equations have been developed to assist in determining fitness for work of people with diseases that may cause rapid loss of control. The four equations calculate the frequency of fatal injury to the person with the disease, the frequency of fatal injury to colleagues in the workplace, and the cost of fatal injury and property damage to the employer, it is suggested that the additional risk of fatal injury to the person with the disease should not exceed the fatal injury rate in high-risk industries such as forestry, fishing and mining. it is also suggested that the additional risk of fatal injury to each colleague should be no more than one-tenth of the fatal injury rate due to motor vehicle accidents in the community. Two hypothetical case examples are given, demonstrating the use of the equations. The equations highlight the need to examine the risks associated with individuals, their specific jobs and their workplaces. They also highlight significant uncertainties in the determination of fitness, which perhaps have been underestimated in the past. Wherever possible, redundant defences should be utilized to prevent accidents in the event of sudden incapacity.

Increasing profits and reducing risks in crop production using participatory systems simulation approaches

The development of cropping systems simulation capabilities world-wide combined with easy access to powerful computing has resulted in a plethora of agricultural models and consequently, model applications. Nonetheless, the scientific credibility of such applications and their relevance to farming practice is still being questioned. Our objective in this paper is to highlight some of the model applications from which benefits for farmers were or could be obtained via changed agricultural practice or policy. Changed on-farm practice due to the direct contribution of modelling, while keenly sought after, may in some cases be less achievable than a contribution via agricultural policies. This paper is intended to give some guidance for future model applications. It is not a comprehensive review of model applications, nor is it intended to discuss modelling in the context of social science or extension policy. Rather, we take snapshots around the globe to 'take stock' and to demonstrate that well-defined financial and environmental benefits can be obtained on-farm from the use of models. We highlight the importance of 'relevance' and hence the importance of true partnerships between all stakeholders (farmer, scientists, advisers) for the successful development and adoption of simulation approaches. Specifically, we address some key points that are essential for successful model applications such as: (1) issues to be addressed must be neither trivial nor obvious; (2) a modelling approach must reduce complexity rather than proliferate choices in order to aid the decision-making process (3) the cropping systems must be sufficiently flexible to allow management interventions based on insights gained from models. The pro and cons of normative approaches (e.g. decision support software that can reach a wide audience quickly but are often poorly contextualized for any individual client) versus model applications within the context of an individual client's situation will also be discussed. We suggest that a tandem approach is necessary whereby the latter is used in the early stages of model application for confidence building amongst client groups. This paper focuses on five specific regions that differ fundamentally in terms of environment and socio-economic structure and hence in their requirements for successful model applications. Specifically, we will give examples from Australia and South America (high climatic variability, large areas, low input, technologically advanced); Africa (high climatic variability, small areas, low input, subsistence agriculture); India (high climatic variability, small areas, medium level inputs, technologically progressing; and Europe (relatively low climatic variability, small areas, high input, technologically advanced). The contrast between Australia and Europe will further demonstrate how successful model applications are strongly influenced by the policy framework within which producers operate. We suggest that this might eventually lead to better adoption of fully integrated systems approaches and result in the development of resilient farming systems that are in tune with current climatic conditions and are adaptable to biophysical and socioeconomic variability and change. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.