Lumber quality of Eucalyptus grandis as a function of diametrical position and log steaming

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Analysis of spring break-up and its effects on a biomass feedstock supply chain in northern Michigan

Demand for bio-fuels is expected to increase, due to rising prices of fossil fuels and concerns over greenhouse gas emissions and energy security. The overall cost of biomass energy generation is primarily related to biomass harvesting activity, transportation, and storage. With a commercial-scale cellulosic ethanol processing facility in Kinross Township of Chippewa County, Michigan about to be built, models including a simulation model and an optimization model have been developed to provide decision support for the facility. Both models track cost, emissions and energy consumption. While the optimization model provides guidance for a long-term strategic plan, the simulation model aims to present detailed output for specified operational scenarios over an annual period. Most importantly, the simulation model considers the uncertainty of spring break-up timing, i.e., seasonal road restrictions. Spring break-up timing is important because it will impact the feasibility of harvesting activity and the time duration of transportation restrictions, which significantly changes the availability of feedstock for the processing facility. This thesis focuses on the statistical model of spring break-up used in the simulation model. Spring break-up timing depends on various factors, including temperature, road conditions and soil type, as well as individual decision making processes at the county level. The spring break-up model, based on the historical spring break-up data from 27 counties over the period of 2002-2010, starts by specifying the probability distribution of a particular county’s spring break-up start day and end day, and then relates the spring break-up timing of the other counties in the harvesting zone to the first county. In order to estimate the dependence relationship between counties, regression analyses, including standard linear regression and reduced major axis regression, are conducted. Using realizations (scenarios) of spring break-up generated by the statistical spring breakup model, the simulation model is able to probabilistically evaluate different harvesting and transportation plans to help the bio-fuel facility select the most effective strategy. For early spring break-up, which usually indicates a longer than average break-up period, more log storage is required, total cost increases, and the probability of plant closure increases. The risk of plant closure may be partially offset through increased use of rail transportation, which is not subject to spring break-up restrictions. However, rail availability and rail yard storage may then become limiting factors in the supply chain. Rail use will impact total cost, energy consumption, system-wide CO2 emissions, and the reliability of providing feedstock to the bio-fuel processing facility.

Development, validation and uncertainty analysis of quantitative structure and activity relationship models for Log P of disinfection by -products

Hydrophobicity as measured by Log P is an important molecular property related to toxicity and carcinogenicity. With increasing public health concerns for the effects of Disinfection By-Products (DBPs), there are considerable benefits in developing Quantitative Structure and Activity Relationship (QSAR) models capable of accurately predicting Log P. In this research, Log P values of 173 DBP compounds in 6 functional classes were used to develop QSAR models, by applying 3 molecular descriptors, namely, Energy of the Lowest Unoccupied Molecular Orbital (ELUMO), Number of Chlorine (NCl) and Number of Carbon (NC) by Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) analysis. The QSAR models developed were validated based on the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) principles. The model Applicability Domain (AD) and mechanistic interpretation were explored. Considering the very complex nature of DBPs, the established QSAR models performed very well with respect to goodness-of-fit, robustness and predictability. The predicted values of Log P of DBPs by the QSAR models were found to be significant with a correlation coefficient R2 from 81% to 98%. The Leverage Approach by Williams Plot was applied to detect and remove outliers, consequently increasing R 2 by approximately 2% to 13% for different DBP classes. The developed QSAR models were statistically validated for their predictive power by the Leave-One-Out (LOO) and Leave-Many-Out (LMO) cross validation methods. Finally, Monte Carlo simulation was used to assess the variations and inherent uncertainties in the QSAR models of Log P and determine the most influential parameters in connection with Log P prediction. The developed QSAR models in this dissertation will have a broad applicability domain because the research data set covered six out of eight common DBP classes, including halogenated alkane, halogenated alkene, halogenated aromatic, halogenated aldehyde, halogenated ketone, and halogenated carboxylic acid, which have been brought to the attention of regulatory agencies in recent years. Furthermore, the QSAR models are suitable to be used for prediction of similar DBP compounds within the same applicability domain. The selection and integration of various methodologies developed in this research may also benefit future research in similar fields.

Protocols for obtainment and isolation of two mesenchymal stem cell sources in sheep

PURPOSE: To evaluate different protocols to isolate stem cells from ovine umbilical cord blood and adipose tissue. METHODS: There were used 5 samples of umbilical blood and 5 samples of perirenal adipose tissue from 10 female sheep. All the samples were obtained through surgery, to harvest aseptic samples. There were used 3 protocols for obtainment and culture of umbilical cord blood stem cells and 4 protocols for ovine adipose tissue stem cells. RESULTS: It was possible to observe only one successful protocol for the obtainment of umbilical cord blood stem cells. When analyzing the techniques used to obtain adipose tissue stem cells, only one of the methods was effective as well. Through colony forming unit assay, there were obtained 58 colonies of cells after seven days in culture. Flow citometry tests revealed the cells were positive to CD44 and exhibited negative reaction to CD38, CD45, CD41/61. These cells showed a growth curve with very well defined phases LOG, LAG and PLATEAU. This phases are typically seem in mesenchymal stem cells growth curves. CONCLUSIONS: The isolation and culture of mesenchymal stem cells from ovine umbilical cord blood are complex and request more detailed assays. Stem cells from fat tissue sheep showed mesenchymal characteristics, according to their cell growth curve, ability to origin colonies of fibroblastoid cells and positive reactivity with the antibody CD44 by flow citometry.

Ester prodrugs of a potent analgesic, morphine-6-sulfate: syntheses, spectroscopic and physicochemical properties

The aim of this work is to develop 3-acyl prodrugs of the potent analgesic morphine-6-sulfate (M6S). These are expected to have higher potency and/or exhibit longer duration of analgesic action than the parent compound. M6S and the prodrugs were synthesized, then purified either by recrystallization or by semi-preparative HPLC and the structures confirmed by mass spectrometry, IR spectrophotometry and by detailed 1- and 2-D NMR studies. The lipophilicities of the compounds were assessed by a combination of shake-flask, group contribution and HPLC retention methods. The octanol-buffer partition coefficient could only be obtained directly for 3-heptanoylmorphine-6-sulfate, using the shake-flask method. The partition coefficients (P) for the remaining prodrugs were estimated from known methylene group contributions. A good linear relationship between log P and the HPLC log capacity factors was demonstrated. Hydrolysis of the 3-acetyl prodrug, as a representative of the group, was found to occur relatively slowly in buffers (pH range 6.15-8.01), with a small buffer catalysis contribution. The rates of enzymatic hydrolysis of the 3-acyl group in 10% rat blood and in 10% rat brain homogenate were investigated. The prodrugs followed apparent first order hydrolysis kinetics, with a significantly faster hydrolysis rate found in 10% rat brain homogenate than in 10% rat blood for all compounds. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Malaria serology: performance of six Plasmodium falciparum antigen extracts and of three ways of determining serum titers in IgG and IgM-ELISA

The study evaluated six Plasmodium falciparum antigen extracts to be used in the IgG and IgM enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISA), for malaria diagnosis and epidemiological studies. Results obtained with eighteen positive and nine negative control sera indicated that there were statistically significant differences among these antigen extracts (Multifactor ANOVA, p< 0.0001). Urea, sodium deoxycholate and Zwittergent antigen extracts performed better than did the three others, their features being very similar for the detection of IgG antibodies. Urea, alkaline and sodium deoxycholate antigen extracts proved to be better than the others for the detection of IgM antibodies. A straight line relationship was found between the optical densities (or their respective log 10) and the log 10 of antibody dilutions, with a very constant slope. Thus serum titers could be determined by direct titration and by two different equations, needing only one serum dilution. For IgM antibody detections, log 10 expression gave results that better correlated with direct titration (95% Bonferroni). For IgG antibody detections, the titer differences were not significant. The reproducibility of antibody titers and antigen batches was also evaluated, giving satisfactory results.

Evaluation of the allergenicity of spore and mycelia extracts of Pisolithus tinctorius

The antigenic and allergenic chemical analysis of spore and mycelia extracts of Pisolithus tinctorius was carried out. The spores were collected from basidiocarps in plantations of Eucalyptus spp and the mycelia from culture in MNM medium. With basis on the fungus growth curve, the mycelia masses were obtained after 10, 20, 30, and 40 days of incubation, which correspond, respectively, to the beginning, middle and end of the log phase, and beginning of the decline phase. The mycelia masses, together with the spores, were submitted to the action of three extractors (Coca, Tris-HCl, and ammonium bicarbonate). The contents of carbohydrates and proteins were determined. The SDS-PAGE electrophoretical analysis revealed separate fractions in these extracts, besides common fractions, in function of cultivation time and extraction methods. The selected extracts for the allergic tests were the ones with the highest number of fractions. The prick-tests were conducted in 374 patients – rural workers, eucalyptus plantation works and college students. The positivity to the "prick test" with the antigenic extract of P. tinctorius was, respectively, 3.78%, 28.20% and 6.40%. Most prick-test positive patients (82.75%) also presented symptoms of respiratory allergy (asthma and rhinitis). There was no reactivity difference when the spore and mycelia extracts were employed. The analysis of the positive patients’ sera revealed the presence of IgE specific to the P. tinctorius antigens. Since Pisolithus tinctorius is found as mycorrhyza of Eucalyptus spp, and this plant is used in reforestation in most countries, the importance of that fungus should be regarded as a possible cause of respiratory allergies, especially in occupationally exposed workers

Analysis of the seismic performance of a two storey log house

The dearth of knowledge on the load resistance mechanisms of log houses and the need for developing numerical models that are capable of simulating the actual behaviour of these structures has pushed efforts to research the relatively unexplored aspects of log house construction. The aim of the research that is presented in this paper is to build a working model of a log house that will contribute toward understanding the behaviour of these structures under seismic loading. The paper presents the results of a series of shaking table tests conducted on a log house and goes on to develop a numerical model of the tested house. The finite element model has been created in SAP2000 and validated against the experimental results. The modelling assumptions and the difficulties involved in the process have been described and, finally, a discussion on the effects of the variation of different physical and material parameters on the results yielded by the model has been drawn up.

Pareto or log-normal? A recursive-truncation approach to the distribution of (all) cities

Traditionally, it is assumed that the population size of cities in a country follows a Pareto distribution. This assumption is typically supported by nding evidence of Zipf's Law. Recent studies question this nding, highlighting that, while the Pareto distribution may t reasonably well when the data is truncated at the upper tail, i.e. for the largest cities of a country, the log-normal distribution may apply when all cities are considered. Moreover, conclusions may be sensitive to the choice of a particular truncation threshold, a yet overlooked issue in the literature. In this paper, then, we reassess the city size distribution in relation to its sensitivity to the choice of truncation point. In particular, we look at US Census data and apply a recursive-truncation approach to estimate Zipf's Law and a non-parametric alternative test where we consider each possible truncation point of the distribution of all cities. Results con rm the sensitivity of results to the truncation point. Moreover, repeating the analysis over simulated data con rms the di culty of distinguishing a Pareto tail from the tail of a log-normal and, in turn, identifying the city size distribution as a false or a weak Pareto law.

Estimation of parametric and nonparametric models for univariate claim severity distributions - an approach using R

This paper presents an analysis of motor vehicle insurance claims relating to vehicle damage and to associated medical expenses. We use univariate severity distributions estimated with parametric and non-parametric methods. The methods are implemented using the statistical package R. Parametric analysis is limited to estimation of normal and lognormal distributions for each of the two claim types. The nonparametric analysis presented involves kernel density estimation. We illustrate the benefits of applying transformations to data prior to employing kernel based methods. We use a log-transformation and an optimal transformation amongst a class of transformations that produces symmetry in the data. The central aim of this paper is to provide educators with material that can be used in the classroom to teach statistical estimation methods, goodness of fit analysis and importantly statistical computing in the context of insurance and risk management. To this end, we have included in the Appendix of this paper all the R code that has been used in the analysis so that readers, both students and educators, can fully explore the techniques described

Blood pressure modifies the association between serum adiponectin and uric acid, in a sex-dependent manner

Purpose: Plasma adiponectin and serum uric acid (SUA) levels are negatively correlated. To better understand the possible mechanisms linking adiponectin and uric acid, we analyzed whether the association between adiponectin and SUA differed by hypertension status (or blood pressure level) and by sex. Methods and materials: We analyzed data from the populationbased CoLaus study (Switzerland). Fasting plasma adiponectin levels were assessed by ELISA and SUA by uricase-PAP. Blood pressure (BP) was measured using a validated automated device and hypertension was defined as having office BP 140/90 mm Hg or being on current antihypertensive treatment. Results: In the 2897 men and 3181 women, aged 35-74, BMI (mean ± SD) was 26.6 ± 4.0 and 25.1 ± 4.8 Kg/m2, systolic blood pressure (SBP) was 132.2 ± 16.6 and 124.8 ± 18.3 mm Hg, median (interquartile range) plasma adiponectin was 6.2 (4.1-9.2) and 10.6 (6.9-15.4) mg/dL, and hypertension prevalence was 42.0% and 30.2%, respectively. The age- and BMI- adjusted partial correlation coefficients between log-adiponectin and SUA were 0.09 and 0.06 in normotensive men and women (P <0.01), and 0.004 (P = 0.88) and 0.15 (P <0.001) in hypertensive men and women, respectively. In median regression adjusted for BMI, insulin, smoking, alcohol consumption, menopausal status and HDL-cholesterol, there was a significant three-way interaction between SUA, SBP and sex for their effect on adiponectin (dependent variable, P = 0.005), as well as interactions between SBP and sex (P = 0.014) and between SUA and sex (P = 0.033). Conclusion: Plasma adiponectin and SUA are negatively associated, independently of BMI and insulin, in a population-based study in Caucasians. However, BP modifies this inverse relationship, as it was significant mainly in women with elevated BP. This observation suggests that the link between adiponectin and SUA may be mediated by sex hormones and the hypertension status.

Clinical Prognostic Factors Predicting Outcomes Of Patients With Recurrent Gbm And Nomograms

BACKGROUND: Prognostic models and nomograms were recently developed to predict survival of patients with newly diagnosed glioblastoma multiforme (GBM).1 To improve predictions, models should be updated with the most recent patient and disease information. Nomograms predicting patient outcome at the time of disease progression are required. METHODS: Baseline information from 299 patients with recurrent GBM recruited in 8 phase I or II trials of the EORTC Brain Tumor Group was used to evaluate clinical parameters as prognosticators of patient outcome. Univariate (log rank) and multivariate (Cox models) analyses were made to assess the ability of patients' characteristics (age, sex, performance status [WHO PS], and MRC neurological deficit scale), disease history (prior treatments, time since last treatment or initial diagnosis, and administration of steroids or antiepileptics) and disease characteristics (tumor size and number of lesions) to predict progression free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS). Bootstrap technique was used for models internal validation. Nomograms were computed to provide individual patients predictions. RESULTS: Poor PS and more than 1 lesion had a significant prognostic impact for both PFS and OS. Antiepileptic drug use was significantly associated with worse PFS. Larger tumors (split by the median of the largest tumor diameter >42.5 mm) and steroid use had shorter OS. Age, sex, neurologic deficit, prior therapies, and time since last therapy or initial diagnosis did not show independent prognostic value for PFS or OS. CONCLUSIONS: This analysis confirms that PS but not age is a major prognostic factor for PFS and OS. Multiple or large tumors and the need to administer steroids significantly increase the risk of progression and death. Nomograms at the recurrence could be used to obtain accurate predictions for the design of new targeted therapy trials or retrospective analyses. (1. T. Gorlia et al., Nomograms for predicting survival of patients with newly diagnosed glioblastoma. Lancet Oncol 9 (1): 29-38, 2008.)

Predictors of mortality from pump failure and sudden cardiac death in patients with systolic heart failure and left ventricular dyssynchrony: results of the CARE-HF trial.

BACKGROUND: Determining a specific death cause may facilitate individualized therapy in patients with heart failure (HF). Cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) decreased mortality in the Cardiac Resynchronization in Heart Failure trial by reducing pump failure and sudden cardiac death (SCD). This study analyzes predictors of specific causes of death. METHODS AND RESULTS: Univariate and multivariate analyses used 8 baseline and 3-month post-randomization variables to predict pump failure and SCD (categorized as "definite," "probable," and "possible"). Of 255 deaths, 197 were cardiovascular. There were 71 SCDs with a risk reduction by CRT of 0.47 (95% confidence interval 0.29-0.76; P = .002) with similar reductions in SCD classified as definite, probable, and possible. Univariate SCD predictors were 3-month HF status (mitral regurgitation [MR] severity, plasma brain natriuretic peptide [BNP], end-diastolic volume, and systolic blood pressure), whereas randomization to CRT decreased risk. Multivariate SCD predictors were randomization to CRT 0.56 (0.53-0.96, P = .035) and 3-month MR severity 1.82 (1.77-2.60, P = .0012). Univariate pump failure death predictors related to baseline HF state (quality of life score, interventricular mechanical delay, end-diastolic volume, plasma BNP, MR severity, and systolic pressure), whereas randomization to CRT and nonischemic cardiomyopathy decreased risk; multivariate predictors of pump failure death were baseline plasma BNP and systolic pressure and randomization to CRT. CONCLUSION: CRT decreased SCD in patients with systolic HF and ventricular dyssynchrony. SCD risk was increased with increased severity of MR (including the 3-month value for MR as a time-dependent covariate) and reduced by randomization to CRT. HF death was increased related to the level of systolic blood pressure, log BNP, and randomization to CRT. These results emphasize the importance and interdependence of HF severity to mortality from pump failure and SCD.

Tukki- ja parruoptimoinnintoimivuuden kehittäminen

Diplomityön tutkimusfunktio käsittelee toimeksiantajan, Stora Enso Timber Oy Ltd Kotkan sahan, sahalinjan optimointikokonaisuuden relevanttia ongelmakenttää. Tutkimuksen alussa profiloivan sahalinjan tukinpyörityksen, pelkan sivuttaissiirron tai sivulautaoptimoinnin toimivuudesta ei ollut varmuutta. Työn painopistealue on sivulautaoptimointi, jonka toimivuus tutkimuksen alussa on hyvin kyseenalaista tuotantoajossa. Työn tavoitteet kiteytyvät paremman raaka-aineen käyttösuhteen saavuttamiselle, jolloin pitkän aikajänteen kannattavuus on realistisempaa saavuttaa. Kotkan sahalinjan optimointijärjestelmässä on kokonaisuudessaan saavutettu tuotantoajoon hyväksyttävä taso. Tukinpyörityksen tarkkuudessa saavutettiin asetettu tavoite, eli 90 % pyöritystuloksista menee virheikkunaan ± 10° , sekä virheen keskiarvon itseisarvo jasen ympärillä olevan hajonnan summa on maksimissaan 10° . Pelkan sivuttaissiirto todettiin tutkimuksessa sekundääriseksi optimointijärjestelmäksi. Ohjaus perustuu tukkimittarin mittaamaan dataan, jolloin tukinpyörityksen hajonta aiheuttaa epätarkkuutta pelkan suuntauksessa. Pelkan sivuttaisiirron käyttäminen vaatii lisämittauksia, jolloin voidaan varmistua pelkan suuntauksen optimoinnin toimivuudesta. Sivulautaoptimoinnin toimivuuden kehittämisessä saavutettiin se taso, missä todellista kehitystyötä voidaan tehdä. Koeajoissa ja optimointiohjelman tarkastamisessa havaittiin periaatteellisia virheitä, jotka korjattiin. Toimivan sivulautaoptimoinnin myötä on mahdollista hallita paremmin tuotannonohjaus, jolloin tuotanto voidaan etenkin sivulautojen osalta kohdentaa paremmin vastaamaan kysyntää sekä asete-erän hyvää käyttösuhdetta. Raaka-aineen käyttösuhde on parantunut. Yksittäisten asetevertailujen sekä esimerkkilaskelmien perusteella tuottopotentiaali tukinpyörityksen ja sivulautaoptimoinnin osalta on 0,6...1,5 MEUR Välillinen tuottopotentiaali on suurempi, koska tuotantoprosessi sahauksen osalta on erittäin joustava markkinoiden tarpeen muutoksille. Sahalinjalla on mahdollista tuottaa helposti laajalla tukkisumalla laajaa tuotematriisia, jossa sivulautaoptimoinnilla on avainrooli. Tuotannonsuunnittelufunktiota tulee kehittää vastaamaan mahdollisuuksiin,joita sivulautaoptimointi tarjoaa. Tuotematriisi ja sitä vastaavat asetteet lankeavalla tukkisumalla tulee rakentaa uudestaan niiltä osin, joihin sivulautaoptimointi antaa variaatiomahdollisuuksia.

Tukin asemointi sahausta varten

Diplomityössä tutkittiin tukinpyörityksen yleisimpiä ongelmia. Tutkimus selvitti tukinpyörityksen ongelmien syitä, sekä määritti kahden tukinpyörityslaitteiston takuuarvot. Tutkimuksen kohteena oli myös prosessiparametrien muutoksen vaikutus pyöritystarkkuuteen. Tukin pyöritysvirheen ja saannon yhteyttä tutkittiin teorian perusteella. Tukin onnistuneessa asemoinnissa sahaukseen täytyy hallita tukinpyöritys sekä -suuntaus. Tukin virheellinen asemointi heikentää saantoa. Raaka-ainekustannukset ovat suurimmat yksittäiset kustannukset sahoilla, siksi tukin virheellinen asemointi heikentää sahan taloudellista tulosta voimakkaasti. Työn tuloksista käy ilmi, ettei tukinpyörityksen onnistuminen riipu ainoastaan mekaanisista ratkaisuista, järjestelmän kaikkien komponenttien on toimittava moitteettomasti. Mekaniikka ei toteuta pyörityskäskyjä oikein, jos käskyt ovat epätarkkoja. Tukinpyörityksen tarkkuuden mittaukseen on kiinnitetty huomiota vasta äskettäin. Tunnusluvut, jotka kuvaavat tukinpyöritystarkkuutta ovat vakiintumassa yleiseen käyttöön. Työn tulosten perusteella voidaan tukinpyörityslaitteistojen myynti perustaa tutkimustiedolle.