Contagion in financial networks: a network theory and agent-based approaches to modeling the spread of risk in financial systems

Esta dissertação estuda a propagação de crises sobre o sistema financeiro. Mais especi- ficamente, busca-se desenvolver modelos que permitam simular como um determinado choque econômico atinge determinados agentes do sistema financeiro e apartir dele se propagam, transformando-se em um problema sistêmico. A dissertação é dividida em dois capítulos,além da introdução. O primeiro capítulo desenvolve um modelo de propa- gação de crises em fundos de investimento baseado em ciência das redes.Combinando dois modelos de propagação em redes financeiras, um simulando a propagação de perdas em redes bipartites de ativos e agentes financeiros e o outro simulando a propagação de perdas em uma rede de investimentos diretos em quotas de outros agentes, desenvolve-se um algoritmo para simular a propagação de perdas através de ambos os mecanismos e utiliza-se este algoritmo para simular uma crise no mercado brasileiro de fundos de investimento. No capítulo 2,desenvolve-se um modelo de simulação baseado em agentes, com agentes financeiros, para simular propagação de um choque que afeta o mercado de operações compromissadas.Criamos também um mercado artificial composto por bancos, hedge funds e fundos de curto prazo e simulamos a propagação de um choque de liquidez sobre um ativo de risco securitizando utilizado para colateralizar operações compromissadas dos bancos.

Change in physical activity after smoking cessation: the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) study

AIMS To estimate physical activity trajectories for people who quit smoking, and compare them to what would have been expected had smoking continued. DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS A total of 5115 participants in the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults Study (CARDIA) study, a population-based study of African American and European American people recruited at age 18-30 years in 1985/6 and followed over 25 years. MEASUREMENTS Physical activity was self-reported during clinical examinations at baseline (1985/6) and at years 2, 5, 7, 10, 15, 20 and 25 (2010/11); smoking status was reported each year (at examinations or by telephone, and imputed where missing). We used mixed linear models to estimate trajectories of physical activity under varying smoking conditions, with adjustment for participant characteristics and secular trends. FINDINGS We found significant interactions by race/sex (P = 0.02 for the interaction with cumulative years of smoking), hence we investigated the subgroups separately. Increasing years of smoking were associated with a decline in physical activity in black and white women and black men [e.g. coefficient for 10 years of smoking: -0.14; 95% confidence interval (CI) = -0.20 to -0.07, P < 0.001 for white women]. An increase in physical activity was associated with years since smoking cessation in white men (coefficient 0.06; 95% CI = 0 to 0.13, P = 0.05). The physical activity trajectory for people who quit diverged progressively towards higher physical activity from the expected trajectory had smoking continued. For example, physical activity was 34% higher (95% CI = 18 to 52%; P < 0.001) for white women 10 years after stopping compared with continuing smoking for those 10 years (P = 0.21 for race/sex differences). CONCLUSIONS Smokers who quit have progressively higher levels of physical activity in the years after quitting compared with continuing smokers.

The Dark Side of the Moon: Meta-analytical Impact of Recruitment Strategies on Risk Enrichment in the Clinical High Risk State for Psychosis

Background: The individual risk of developing psychosis after being tested for clinical high-risk (CHR) criteria (posttest risk of psychosis) depends on the underlying risk of the disease of the population from which the person is selected (pretest risk of psychosis), and thus on recruitment strategies. Yet, the impact of recruitment strategies on pretest risk of psychosis is unknown. Methods: Meta-analysis of the pretest risk of psychosis in help-seeking patients selected to undergo CHR assessment: total transitions to psychosis over the pool of patients assessed for potential risk and deemed at risk (CHR+) or not at risk (CHR−). Recruitment strategies (number of outreach activities per study, main target of outreach campaign, and proportion of self-referrals) were the moderators examined in meta-regressions. Results: 11 independent studies met the inclusion criteria, for a total of 2519 (CHR+: n = 1359; CHR−: n = 1160) help-seeking patients undergoing CHR assessment (mean follow-up: 38 months). The overall meta-analytical pretest risk for psychosis in help-seeking patients was 15%, with high heterogeneity (95% CI: 9%–24%, I 2 = 96, P < .001). Recruitment strategies were heterogeneous and opportunistic. Heterogeneity was largely explained by intensive (n = 11, β = −.166, Q = 9.441, P = .002) outreach campaigns primarily targeting the general public (n = 11, β = −1.15, Q = 21.35, P < .001) along with higher proportions of self-referrals (n = 10, β = −.029, Q = 4.262, P = .039), which diluted pretest risk for psychosis in patients undergoing CHR assessment. Conclusions: There is meta-analytical evidence for overall risk enrichment (pretest risk for psychosis at 38monhts = 15%) in help-seeking samples selected for CHR assessment as compared to the general population (pretest risk of psychosis at 38monhts=0.1%). Intensive outreach campaigns predominantly targeting the general population and a higher proportion of self-referrals diluted the pretest risk for psychosis.

The Queensland Cancer Risk Study: Behavioural risk factor results

Objective: To describe the population prevalence of key cancer risk behaviours in Queensland. Methods: The Queensland Cancer Risk Study was a population-based survey of 9,419 Queensland residents aged 20-75 years. Information was collected through an anonymous, computer-assisted telephone interview between February and November 2004. Outcome measures included tobacco smoking, alcohol consumption, sun-tanning and sunburn, obesity physical inactivity and poor diet, weighted by age, gender and geographic region. Results: Prevalence of current smoking was 25.2% for males and 20.8% for females and was highest in the 20-39 year age group and in rural/remote areas. Two-thirds of participants regularly drank alcohol; of these, 63% consumed excessive amounts of alcohol. Excessive sun exposure is still a problem; 70% of Queenslanders reported an episode of sunburn and 12% reported attempting to get a suntan in the past year. More than half of the respondents (53.9%) were above the healthy weight range, and 17.1% of males and 18.4% of females were obese. Just over 40% of Queensland adults reported having insufficient levels of physical activity. Fewer than half of the participants met recommended levels of fruit or vegetable consumption. Conclusions and implications: The majority of Queensland adults exhibit known, modifiable cancer risk behaviours. These results suggest that continuing efforts to reduce the prevalence of these risk factors are warranted. Specifically, significant gains could be made by targeting behaviour change programs at younger Queenslanders (aged 20-39 years), men, and those living in remote/ very remote areas of Queensland.

Global Capitalism, Immigrant Labor, and the Struggle for Justice

Around the world borders are militarized, states are stepping up repressive anti-immigrant controls, and native publics are turning immigrants into scapegoats for the spiraling crisis of global capitalism. The massive displacement and primitive accumulation unleashed by free trade agreements and neo-liberal policies, as well as state and “private” violence has resulted in a virtually inexhaustible immigrant labor reserve for the global economy. State controls over immigration and immigrant labor have several functions for the system: 1) state repression and criminalization of undocumented immigration make immigrants vulnerable and deportable and therefore subject to conditions of super-exploitation, super-control and hyper-surveillance; 2) anti-immigrant repressive apparatuses are themselves ever more important sources of accumulation, ranging from private for-profit immigrant detention centers, to the militarization of borders, and the purchase by states of military hardware and systems of surveillance. Immigrant labor is extremely profitable for the transnational corporate economy; 3) the anti-immigrant policies associated with repressive state apparatuses help turn attention away from the crisis of global capitalism among more privileged sectors of the working class and convert immigrant workers into scapegoats for the crisis, thus deflecting attention from the root causes of the crisis and undermining working class unity. This article focuses on structural and historical underpinnings of the phenomenon of immigrant labor in the new global capitalist system and on how the rise of a globally integrated production and financial system, a transnational capitalist class, and transnational state apparatuses, have led to a reorganization of the world market in labor, including deeper reliance on a rapidly expanding reserve army of immigrant labor and a vicious new anti-immigrant politics. It looks at the United States as an illustration of the larger worldwide situation with regard to immigration and immigrant justice. Finally, it explores the rise of an immigrant justice movement around the world, observes the leading role that immigrant workers often play in worker’s struggles and that a mass immigrant rights movement is at the cutting edge of the struggle against transnational corporate exploitation. We call for replacing the whole concept of national citizenship with that of global citizenship as the only rallying cry that can assure justice and equality for all.

The legitimation of risk and Bt cotton: a case study of Bantala village in Warangal, Andhra Pradesh, India

This article explores Ulrich Beck’s theorisation of risk society through focusing on the way in which the risk of Bt cotton is legitimated by six cultivators in Bantala, a village in Warangal, Andhra Pradesh, in India. The fieldwork for this study was conducted between June 2010 and March 2011, a duration chosen to coincide with a cotton season. The study explores the experience of the cultivators using the ‘categories of legitimation’ defined by Van Leeuwen. These are authorisation, moral evaluation, rationalisation and mythopoesis. As well as permitting an exploration of the legitimation of Bt cotton by cultivators themselves within the high-risk context of the Indian agrarian crisis, the categories also serve as an analytical framework with which to structure a discourse analysis of participant perspectives. The study examines the complex trade-off, which Renn argues the legitimation of ambiguous risk, such as that associated with Bt technology, entails. The research explores the way in which legitimation of the technology is informed by wider normative conceptualisations of development. This highlights that, in a context where indebtedness is strongly linked to farmer suicides, the potential of Bt cotton for poverty alleviation is traded against the uncertainty associated with the technology’s risks, which include its purported links to animal deaths. The study highlights the way in which the wider legitimation of a neoliberal approach to development in Andhra Pradesh serves to reinforce the choice of Bt cotton, and results in a depoliticisation of risk in Bantala. The research indicates, however, that this trade-off is subject to change over time, as economic benefits wane and risks accumulate. It also highlights the need for caution in relation to the proposed extension of Bt technology to food crops, such as Bt brinjal (aubergine).

Assessment of the potential genotoxic risk of medicinal Tamarindus indica fruit pulp extract using in vivo assays

Tamarindus indica has been used in folk medicine as an antidiabetic, a digestive aid, and a carminative, among other uses. Currently, there is no information in the toxicology literature concerning the safety of T. indica extract. We evaluated the clastogenic and/or genotoxic potential of fruit pulp extract of this plant in vivo in peripheral blood and liver cells of Wistar rats, using the comet assay, and in bone marrow cells of Swiss mice, using the micronucleus test. The extract was administered by gavage at doses of 1000, 1500 and 2000 mg/kg body weight. Peripheral blood and liver cells from Wistar rats were collected 24 h after treatment, for the comet assay. The micronucleus test was carried out in bone marrow cells from Swiss mice collected 24 h after treatment. The extract made with T. indica was devoid of clastogenic and genotoxic activities in the cells of the rodents, when administered orally at these three acute doses.

The Finnish Diabetes Risk Score (FINDRISC) as a screening tool for hepatic steatosis

Introduction. Hepatic steatosis due to non-alcoholic fatty liver disease is associated with obesity, dyslipidemia, insulin resistance, and type 2 diabetes. The Finnish Diabetes Risk Score (FINDRISC) is a prognostic screening tool to detect people at risk for type 2 diabetes without the use of any blood test. The objective of this study was to evaluate whether FINDRISC can also be used to screen for the presence of hepatic steatosis. Patients and methods. Steatosis was determined by ultrasound. The study sample consisted of 821 non-diabetic subjects without previous hepatic disease; 81% were men (mean age 45 +/- 9 years) and 19% women (mean age 41 +/- 10 years). Results. Steatosis was present in 44% of men and 10% of women. The odds ratio for one unit increase in the FINDRISC associated with the risk of steatosis was 1.30 (95% CI 1.25-1.35), similar for men and women. The area under the receiver operating characteristics curve for steatosis was 0.80 (95% CI 0.77-0.83); 0.80 in men (95% CI 0.77-0.83) and 0.83 (95% CI 0.73-0.93) in women. Conclusions. Our data suggest that the FINDRISC could be a useful primary screening tool for the presence of steatosis.

Breaking the deadlock over an Australian trial of injectable opioid maintenance

INJECTABLE HEROIN MAINTENANCE has been advocated as a form of treatment for opioid dependence that would attract, and retain in treatment, addicts who have either not sought treatment or who have failed at other forms of treatment, including methadone maintenance. Advocates of heroin maintenance argue that it would increase the proportion of addicts in treatment and reduce heroin use, drug related crime, and deaths due to overdose.