Dynamic Programming Approaches for Estimating and Applying Large-scale Discrete Choice Models

People go through their life making all kinds of decisions, and some of these decisions affect their demand for transportation, for example, their choices of where to live and where to work, how and when to travel and which route to take. Transport related choices are typically time dependent and characterized by large number of alternatives that can be spatially correlated. This thesis deals with models that can be used to analyze and predict discrete choices in large-scale networks. The proposed models and methods are highly relevant for, but not limited to, transport applications. We model decisions as sequences of choices within the dynamic discrete choice framework, also known as parametric Markov decision processes. Such models are known to be difficult to estimate and to apply to make predictions because dynamic programming problems need to be solved in order to compute choice probabilities. In this thesis we show that it is possible to explore the network structure and the flexibility of dynamic programming so that the dynamic discrete choice modeling approach is not only useful to model time dependent choices, but also makes it easier to model large-scale static choices. The thesis consists of seven articles containing a number of models and methods for estimating, applying and testing large-scale discrete choice models. In the following we group the contributions under three themes: route choice modeling, large-scale multivariate extreme value (MEV) model estimation and nonlinear optimization algorithms. Five articles are related to route choice modeling. We propose different dynamic discrete choice models that allow paths to be correlated based on the MEV and mixed logit models. The resulting route choice models become expensive to estimate and we deal with this challenge by proposing innovative methods that allow to reduce the estimation cost. For example, we propose a decomposition method that not only opens up for possibility of mixing, but also speeds up the estimation for simple logit models, which has implications also for traffic simulation. Moreover, we compare the utility maximization and regret minimization decision rules, and we propose a misspecification test for logit-based route choice models. The second theme is related to the estimation of static discrete choice models with large choice sets. We establish that a class of MEV models can be reformulated as dynamic discrete choice models on the networks of correlation structures. These dynamic models can then be estimated quickly using dynamic programming techniques and an efficient nonlinear optimization algorithm. Finally, the third theme focuses on structured quasi-Newton techniques for estimating discrete choice models by maximum likelihood. We examine and adapt switching methods that can be easily integrated into usual optimization algorithms (line search and trust region) to accelerate the estimation process. The proposed dynamic discrete choice models and estimation methods can be used in various discrete choice applications. In the area of big data analytics, models that can deal with large choice sets and sequential choices are important. Our research can therefore be of interest in various demand analysis applications (predictive analytics) or can be integrated with optimization models (prescriptive analytics). Furthermore, our studies indicate the potential of dynamic programming techniques in this context, even for static models, which opens up a variety of future research directions.

Search for cytotoxic agents in multiple Laurencia complex seaweed species (Ceramiales, Rhodophyta) harvested from the Atlantic Ocean with emphasis on the Brazilian State of Espírito Santo

The development of new anti-cancer drugs of algal origin represents one of the least explored frontiers in medicinal chemistry. In this regard, the diversity of micro- and macroalgae found in Brazilian coastal waters can be viewed as a largely untapped natural resource. In this report, we describe a comparative study on the cytotoxic properties of extracts obtained from the Laurencia complex: Laurencia aldingensis, L. catarinensis, L. dendroidea, L. intricata, L. translucida, L. sp, and Palisada flagellifera. All of these species were collected in the coastal waters of the State of Espírito Santo, Brazil. Four out of the twelve samples initially investigated were found to show significant levels of toxicity towards a model tumor cell line (human uterine sarcoma, MES-SA). The highest levels of cytotoxicity were typically associated with non-polar (hexane) algal extracts, while the lowest levels of cytotoxicity were found with the corresponding polar (methanol) extracts. In this report, we also describe a biological model currently in development that will not only facilitate the search for new anti-cancer drug candidates of algal origin, but also permit the identification of compounds capable of inducing the destruction of multi-drug resistant tumors with greater efficiency than the pharmaceuticals currently in clinical use.

A SEARCH FOR FIELD HORIZONTAL-BRANCH STARS NEAR THE SOUTH GALACTIC POLE

Searches for field horizontal-branch (FHB) stars in the halo of the Galaxy in the past have been carried out by several techniques, such as objective-prism surveys and visual or infrared photometric surveys. By choosing adequate color criteria, it is possible to improve the efficiency of identifying bona fide FHB stars among the other objects that exhibit similar characteristics, such as main-sequence A-stars, blue stragglers, subdwarfs, etc. In this work, we report the results of a spectroscopic survey carried out near the south Galactic pole intended to validate FHB stars originally selected from the HK objective-prism survey of Beers and colleagues, based on near-infrared color indices. A comparison between the stellar spectra obtained in this survey with theoretical stellar atmosphere models allows us to determine T(eff), log g, and [Fe/H] for 13 stars in the sample. Stellar temperatures were calculated from measured (B-V)(o), when this measurement was available (16 stars). The color index criteria adopted in this work are shown to correctly classify 30% of the sample as FHB, 25% as non-FHB (main-sequence stars and subdwarfes), whereas 40% could not be distinguished between FHB and main-sequence stars. We compare the efficacy of different color criteria in the literature intended to select FHB stars, and discuss the use of the Mg II 4481 line to estimate the metallicity.

A SEARCH FOR UNRECOGNIZED CARBON-ENHANCED METAL-POOR STARS IN THE GALAXY

We have developed a new procedure to search for carbon-enhanced metal-poor (CEMP) stars from the Hamburg/ESO (HES) prism-survey plates. This method employs an extended line index for the CH G band, which we demonstrate to have superior performance when compared to the narrower G-band index formerly employed to estimate G-band strengths for these spectra. Although CEMP stars have been found previously among candidate metal-poor stars selected from the HES, the selection on metallicity undersamples the population of intermediate-metallicity CEMP stars (-2.5 <= [Fe/H] <= -1.0); such stars are of importance for constraining the onset of the s-process in metal-deficient asymptotic giant branch stars (thought to be associated with the origin of carbon for roughly 80% of CEMP stars). The new candidates also include substantial numbers of warmer carbon-enhanced stars, which were missed in previous HES searches for carbon stars due to selection criteria that emphasized cooler stars. A first subsample, biased toward brighter stars (B < 15.5), has been extracted from the scanned HES plates. After visual inspection (to eliminate spectra compromised by plate defects, overlapping spectra, etc., and to carry out rough spectral classifications), a list of 669 previously unidentified candidate CEMP stars was compiled. Follow-up spectroscopy for a pilot sample of 132 candidates was obtained with the Goodman spectrograph on the SOAR 4.1 m telescope. Our results show that most of the observed stars lie in the targeted metallicity range, and possess prominent carbon absorption features at 4300 angstrom. The success rate for the identification of new CEMP stars is 43% (13 out of 30) for [Fe/H] < -2.0. For stars with [Fe/H] < -2.5, the ratio increases to 80% (four out of five objects), including one star with [Fe/H] < -3.0.

The central role of human resource management in the search for sustainable organizations

The aim of this article is to present the main contributions of human resource management to develop sustainable organizations. The relationship between human resources and organizational sustainability, which is based on economical, social and environmental performance, involves some important aspects concerning management such as innovation, cultural diversity and the environment. The integration of items from the triple bottom line approach leads to developing a model based on a strategic and central posture of human resource management. Based on this model, propositions and recommendations for future research on this theme are presented.

A distributed system for learning programming on-line

Several Web-based on-line judges or on-line programming trainers have been developed in order to allow students to train their programming skills. However, their pedagogical functionalities in the learning of programming have not been clearly defined. EduJudge is a project which aims to integrate the “UVA On-line Judge”, an existing on-line programming trainer with an important number of problems and users, into an effective educational environment consisting of the e-learning platform Moodle and the competitive learning tool QUESTOURnament. The result is the EduJudge system which allows teachers to apply different pedagogical approaches using a proven e-learning platform, makes problems easy to search through an effective search engine, and provides an automated evaluation of the solutions submitted to these problems. The final objective is to provide new learning strategies to motivate students and present programming as an easy and attractive challenge. EduJudge has been tried and tested in three algorithms and programming courses in three different Engineering degrees. The students’ motivation and satisfaction levels were analysed alongside the effects of the EduJudge system on students’ academic outcomes. Results indicate that both students and teachers found that among other multiple benefits the EduJudge system facilitates the learning process. Furthermore, the experi- ment also showed an improvement in students’ academic outcomes. It must be noted that the students’ level of satisfaction did not depend on their computer skills or their gender.

Optimization of cruciform specimens for biaxial fatigue loading with direct multi search

In order to correctly assess the biaxial fatigue material properties one must experimentally test different load conditions and stress levels. With the rise of new in-plane biaxial fatigue testing machines, using smaller and more efficient electrical motors, instead of the conventional hydraulic machines, it is necessary to reduce the specimen size and to ensure that the specimen geometry is appropriate for the load capacity installed. At the present time there are no standard specimen's geometries and the indications on literature how to design an efficient test specimen are insufficient. The main goal of this paper is to present the methodology on how to obtain an optimal cruciform specimen geometry, with thickness reduction in the gauge area, appropriate for fatigue crack initiation, as a function of the base material sheet thickness used to build the specimen. The geometry is optimized for maximum stress using several parameters, ensuring that in the gauge area the stress distributions on the loading directions are uniform and maximum with two limit phase shift loading conditions (delta = 0 degrees and (delta = 180 degrees). Therefore the fatigue damage will always initiate on the center of the specimen, avoiding failure outside this region. Using the Renard Series of preferred numbers for the base material sheet thickness as a reference, the reaming geometry parameters are optimized using a derivative-free methodology, called direct multi search (DMS) method. The final optimal geometry as a function of the base material sheet thickness is proposed, as a guide line for cruciform specimens design, and as a possible contribution for a future standard on in-plane biaxial fatigue tests

First-line therapies in inflammatory bowel disease.

Background and Aims: Medical therapy of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is becoming more complex, given the increasing choice of drugs to treat Crohn's disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC). We aimed to summarize the current guidelines for first-line treatments in IBD. Methods: An extensive literature search with focus on the guidelines of the European Crohn's and Colitis Organisation for the diagnosis and treatment of CD and UC was performed. First-line treatments were defined as the following drug categories: 5-aminosalicylates, budesonide, systemic steroids, azathioprine, 6-mercaptopurine, methotrexate, infliximab, adalimumab and certolizumab pegol. The following drug categories were not included: cyclosporine and tacrolimus (not yet approved by Swissmedic for IBD treatment). Results: Treatment recommendations for the following clinically frequent situations are presented according to disease severity: ileocecal CD, colonic CD, proximal small bowel CD and perianal CD. For UC the following situations are presented: ulcerative proctitis, left-sided colitis and pancolitis. Conclusions: We provide a summary on the use of first-line therapies for clinically frequent situations in patients with CD and UC.

A New Model for Designing a Product Line Using TURF Analysis

This paper introduces the approach of using TURF analysis to design a product line through a binary linear programming model. This improves the efficiency of the search for the solution to the problem compared to the algorithms that have been used to date. Furthermore, the proposed technique enables the model to be improved in order to overcome the main drawbacks presented by TURF analysis in practice.

Tecnologias da informação e da comunicação e a polêmica sobre direito autoral: o caso Google Book Search

Anotamos, neste trabalho, reflexões sobre as conseqüências das Tecnologias da Informação e da Comunicação (TICs) para o direito autoral e sobre os atores do processo informativo. Partimos da lei do direito autoral vigente no Brasil, perguntando-nos como tais normas protegem as obras intelectuais no contexto digital e até que ponto há legalidade e legitimidade na digitalização de livros protegidos, disponibilizados on-line, tomando como exemplo o caso "Google Book Search". Constatamos que a lei atual pouco defende os direitos dos autores e dos leitores, pois se volta para a proteção dos interesses privados comerciais, e que a sociedade civil encontra formas de ampliar o fluxo comunicativo em decorrência da facilidade de reprodução e distribuição de cópias de obras intelectuais proporcionada pelas TICs.

Study of inner ear and lateral line hair cell regeneration

Death of sensory hair cells in the inner ear results in two global health problems that millions of people around the world suffer: hearing loss and balance disorders. Hair cells convert sound vibrations and head movements into electrical signals that are conveyed to the brain, and as a result of aging, exposure to noise, modern drugs or genetic predisposition, hair cells die. In mammals, the great majority of hair cells are produced during embryogenesis, and hair cells that are lost after birth are not replaceable. However, in the last decades, researches have shown some model organisms that retain the ability to regenerate hair cells damaged after embryogenesis, such as Zebrafish and chicken, providing clues as to the cellular and molecular mechanisms that may block hair cell regeneration in mammals. This discovery initiated a search for methods to stimulate regeneration or replacement of hair cells in mammals, a search that, if fruitful, will revolutionize the treatment of hearing loss and balance disorders. One aim of my project is to study the role of retinoic acid in adult Zebrafish and in mice, which is a metabolite of vitamin A known as an essential molecule to activate hair cell regeneration after cells damaged in Zebrafish embryo. We want to study important genes involved in retinoic acid pathway, such as Aldh1a3 and RARs genes, to check what their role is in the inner ear of adult Zebrafish and compare result obtained in the inner ear of mice. On the other hand, Zebrafish lateral line contains neuromast, which are formed by the same structure than the inner ear: hair cells surrounded by supporting cells and neurons. The lateral line is a structure below the skin's surface that makes easier to damage hair cells to study their regeneration. For that reason, another aim of my project is to study how Sox2 and Atoh1, essential genes during the inner ear development, change their expression during hair cell regeneration in the lateral line. In my project, the most important concepts related to Zebrafish world are explained in order to understand why we have studied this animal and these essential genes. Then, techniques that we used are explained, with their protocol attached in the annexes. Finally, results of my project are shown, but many of them were not expected and they would be needed to follow studying.

A search for RFLP markers to identify genes for aluminum tolerance in maize

The objective of this study was to identify restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) markers linked to QTLs that control aluminum (Al) tolerance in maize. The strategy used was bulked segregant analysis (BSA) and the genetic material utilized was an F2 population derived from a cross between the Al-susceptible inbred line L53 and Al-tolerant inbred line L1327. Both lines were developed at the National Maize and Sorghum Research Center - CNPMS/EMBRAPA. The F2 population of 1554 individuals was evaluated in a nutrient solution containing a toxic concentration of Al and relative seminal root length (RSRL) was used as a phenotypic measure of tolerance. The RSRL frequency distribution was continuous, but skewed towards Al-susceptible individuals. Seedlings of the F2 population which scored the highest and the lowest RSRL values were transplanted to the field and subsequently selfed to obtain F3 families. Thirty F3 families (15 Al-susceptible and 15 Al-tolerant) were evaluated in nutrient solution, using an incomplete block design, to identify those with the smallest variances for aluminum tolerance and susceptibility. Six Al-susceptible and five Al-tolerant F3 families were chosen to construct one pool of Al-susceptible individuals, and another of Al-tolerant, herein referred as "bulks", based on average values of RSRL and genetic variance. One hundred and thirteen probes were selected, with an average interval of 30 cM, covering the 10 maize chromosomes. These were tested for their ability to discriminate the parental lines. Fifty-four of these probes were polymorphic, with 46 showing codominance. These probes were hybridized with DNA from the two contrasting bulks. Three RFLPs on chromosome 8 distinguished the bulks on the basis of band intensity. DNA of individuals from the bulks was hybridized with these probes and showed the presence of heterozygous individuals in each bulk. These results suggest that in maize there is a region related to aluminum tolerance on chromosome 8

The von Neumann Minimax Theorem and its relatives and a study of externality in on-line auctions

This work consists of a theoretical part and an experimental one. The first part provides a simple treatment of the celebrated von Neumann minimax theorem as formulated by Nikaid6 and Sion. It also discusses its relationships with fundamental theorems of convex analysis. The second part is about externality in sponsored search auctions. It shows that in these auctions, advertisers have externality effects on each other which influence their bidding behavior. It proposes Hal R.Varian model and shows how adding externality to this model will affect its properties. In order to have a better understanding of the interaction among advertisers in on-line auctions, it studies the structure of the Google advertisements networ.k and shows that it is a small-world scale-free network.

In Search of Convergence: A Co-citation Analysis of Three Sport Management Journals

Responding to a series of articles in sport management literature calling for more diversity in terms of areas of interest or methods, this study warns against the danger of excessively fragmenting this field of research. The works of Kuhn (1962) and Pfeffer (1993) are taken as the basis of an argument that connects convergence with scientific strength. However, being aware of the large number of counterarguments directed at this line of reasoning, a new model of convergence, which focuses on clusters of research contributions with similar areas of interest, methods, and concepts, is proposed. The existence of these clusters is determined with the help of a bibliometric analysis of publications in three sport management journals. This examination determines that there are justified reasons to be concerned about the level of convergence in the field, pointing out to a reduced ability to create large clusters of contributions in similar areas of interest.

Model-Based Matching of Line Drawings by Linear Combinations of Prototypes

We describe a technique for finding pixelwise correspondences between two images by using models of objects of the same class to guide the search. The object models are 'learned' from example images (also called prototypes) of an object class. The models consist of a linear combination ofsprototypes. The flow fields giving pixelwise correspondences between a base prototype and each of the other prototypes must be given. A novel image of an object of the same class is matched to a model by minimizing an error between the novel image and the current guess for the closest modelsimage. Currently, the algorithm applies to line drawings of objects. An extension to real grey level images is discussed.