Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 310 diseases and injuries, 1990–2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Survival Extrapolation In The Presence Of Cause Specific Hazards.

Health economic evaluations require estimates of expected survival from patients receiving different interventions, often over a lifetime. However, data on the patients of interest are typically only available for a much shorter follow-up time, from randomised trials or cohorts. Previous work showed how to use general population mortality to improve extrapolations of the short-term data, assuming a constant additive or multiplicative effect on the hazards for all-cause mortality for study patients relative to the general population. A more plausible assumption may be a constant effect on the hazard for the specific cause of death targeted by the treatments. To address this problem, we use independent parametric survival models for cause-specific mortality among the general population. Because causes of death are unobserved for the patients of interest, a polyhazard model is used to express their all-cause mortality as a sum of latent cause-specific hazards. Assuming proportional cause-specific hazards between the general and study populations then allows us to extrapolate mortality of the patients of interest to the long term. A Bayesian framework is used to jointly model all sources of data. By simulation, we show that ignoring cause-specific hazards leads to biased estimates of mean survival when the proportion of deaths due to the cause of interest changes through time. The methods are applied to an evaluation of implantable cardioverter defibrillators for the prevention of sudden cardiac death among patients with cardiac arrhythmia. After accounting for cause-specific mortality, substantial differences are seen in estimates of life years gained from implantable cardioverter defibrillators.

Caracterização das vítimas de ferimentos por arma de fogo, atendidas pelo Serviço de Atendimento Móvel de Urgência em Campo Grande-MS

A violência, em todas as suas apresentações, tem crescido de forma avassaladora no país, elevando os indicadores de morbidade e mortalidade por causas externas. O uso das armas de fogo, muitas vezes, faz vítimas fatais ou que podem permanecer sequeladas. Tal fato tem aumentado o ônus do estado com internações hospitalares e acréscimo dos anos de vida perdidos da população jovem, que constitui a grande maioria dessas vítimas. Nesse sentido, o presente estudo objetivou fazer um levantamento das vítimas de ferimentos por arma de fogo, atendidas pelo Serviço de Atendimento Móvel de Urgência no município de Campo Grande-MS, no período de abril de 2005 a abril de 2007, nos dois primeiros anos de funcionamento, desde a implantação desse serviço na capital do Estado de Mato Grosso do Sul. Realizou-se estudo descritivo, baseado em análise documental do sistema de informação do SAMU do município de Campo Grande-MS. Foram descritos 233 atendimentos. Os resultados evidenciaram 213 vítimas do sexo masculino, a faixa etária mais acometida foi dos 20 aos 24 anos de idade, a cabeça e o pescoço foram as partes do corpo mais atingidas e a região Sul do município de Campo Grande foi a que concentrou maior número de atendimentos. Conclui-se que a violência por arma de fogo em Campo Grande-MS atinge a camada economicamente ativa da população e provém de regiões de bolsões de pobreza e desigualdade social, justificando a implantação de um serviço como o SAMU.

Economic impact of a rotavirus vaccine in Brazil

The study was done to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of a national rotavirus vaccination programme in Brazilian children from the healthcare system perspective. A hypothetical annual birth-cohort was followed for a five-year period. Published and national administrative data were incorporated into a model to quantify the consequences of vaccination versus no vaccination. Main outcome measures included the reduction in disease burden, lives saved, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) averted. A rotavirus vaccination programme in Brazil would prevent an estimated 1,804 deaths associated with gastroenteritis due to rotavirus, 91,127 hospitalizations, and 550,198 outpatient visits. Vaccination is likely to reduce 76% of the overall healthcare burden of rotavirus-associated gastroenteritis in Brazil. At a vaccine price of US$ 7-8 per dose, the cost-effectiveness ratio would be US$ 643 per DALY averted. Rotavirus vaccination can reduce the burden of gastroenteritis due to rotavirus at a reasonable cost-effectiveness ratio.

The burden of mental disorders: a comparison of methods between the Australian burden of disease studies and the Global Burden of Disease study

The national and Victorian burden of disease studies in Australia set out to examine critically the methods used in the Global Burden of Disease study to estimate the burden of mental disorders. The main differences include the use of a different set of disability weights allowing estimates in greater detail by level of severity, adjustments for comorbidity between mental disorders, a greater number of menta I disorders measured, and model ling of substance use disorders, anxiety disorders and bipolar disorder as chronic conditions. Uniform age-weighting in the Australian studies produces considerably lower estimates of the burden due to mental disorders in comparison with age-weighted disability-adjusted life years. A lack of follow-up data on people with mental disorders who are identified in cross-sectional surveys poses the greatest challenge in determining the burden of mental disorders more accurately.

The Australian Burden of Disease Study: measuring the loss of health from diseases, injuries and risk factors

This is an overview of the first burden of disease and injury studies carried out in Australia. Methods developed for the World Bank and World Health Organization Global Burden of Disease Study were adapted and applied to Australian population health data. Depression was found to be the top-ranking cause of non-fatal disease burden in Australia, causing 8% of the total years lost due to disability in 1996. Mental disorders overall were responsible for nearly 30% of the non-fatal disease burden. The leading causes of total disease burden (disability-adjusted life years [DALYs]) were ischaemic heart disease and stroke, together causing nearly 18% of the total disease burden. Depression was the fourth leading cause of disease burden, accounting for 3.7% of the total burden. Of the 10 major risk factors to which the disease burden can be attributed, tobacco smoking causes an estimated 10% of the total disease burden in Australia, followed by physical inactivity (7%).

The burden of disease and injury in Australia

An overview of the results of the Australian Burden of Disease (ABD) study is presented. The ABD study was the first to use methodology developed for the Global Burden of Disease study to measure the burden of disease and injury in a developed country. In 1996, mental disorders were the main causes of disability burden, responsible for nearly 30% of total years of life lost to disability (YLD), with depression accounting for 8% of the total YLD. Ischaemic heart disease and stroke were the main contributors to the disease burden disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), together causing nearly 18% of the total disease burden. Risk factors such as smoking, alcohol consumption, physical inactivity, hypertension, high blood cholesterol, obesity and inadequate fruit and vegetable consumption were responsible for much of the overall disease burden in Australia. The lessons learnt from the ABD study are discussed, together with methodological issues that require further attention.

Assessing cost-effectiveness in mental health: family interventions for schizophrenia and related conditions

Objective: Existing evidence suggests that family interventions can be effective in reducing relapse rates in schizophrenia and related conditions. Despite this, such interventions are not routinely delivered in Australian mental health services. The objective of the current study is to investigate the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) of introducing three types of family interventions, namely: behavioural family management (BFM); behavioural intervention for families (BIF); and multiple family groups (MFG) into current mental health services in Australia. Method: The ICER of each of the family interventions is assessed from a health sector perspective, including the government, persons with schizophrenia and their families/carers using a standardized methodology. A two-stage approach is taken to the assessment of benefit. The first stage involves a quantitative analysis based on disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted. The second stage involves application of 'second filter' criteria (including equity, strength of evidence, feasibility and acceptability to stakeholders) to results. The robustness of results is tested using multivariate probabilistic sensitivity analysis. Results: The most cost-effective intervention, in order of magnitude, is BIF (A$8000 per DALY averted), followed by MFG (A$21 000 per DALY averted) and lastly BFM (A$28 000 per DALY averted). The inclusion of time costs makes BFM more cost-effective than MFG. Variation of discount rate has no effect on conclusions. Conclusions: All three interventions are considered 'value-for-money' within an Australian context. This conclusion needs to be tempered against the methodological challenge of converting clinical outcomes into a generic economic outcome measure (DALY). Issues surrounding the feasibility of routinely implementing such interventions need to be addressed.

Cost-effectiveness of cognitive behavioural therapy and selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors for major depression in children and adolescents

Objective: To assess from a health sector perspective the incremental cost-effectiveness of cognitive behavioural therapy (CBT) and selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) for the treatment of major depressive disorder (MDD) in children and adolescents, compared to 'current practice'. Method: The health benefit is measured as a reduction in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), based on effect size calculations from meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials. An assessment on second stage filter criteria ('equity'; 'strength of evidence', 'feasibility' and 'acceptability to stakeholders') is also undertaken to incorporate additional factors that impact on resource allocation decisions. Costs and benefits are tracked for the duration of a new episode of MDD arising in eligible children (age 6-17 years) in the Australian population in the year 2000. Simulation-modelling techniques are used to present a 95% uncertainty interval (UI) around the cost-effectiveness ratios. Results: Compared to current practice, CBT by public psychologists is the most cost-effective intervention for MDD in children and adolescents at A$9000 per DALY saved (95% UI A$3900 to A$24 000). SSRIs and CBT by other providers are less cost-effective but likely to be less than A$50 000 per DALY saved (> 80% chance). CBT is more effective than SSRIs in children and adolescents, resulting in a greater total health benefit (DALYs saved) than could be achieved with SSRIs. Issues that require attention for the CBT intervention include equity concerns, ensuring an adequate workforce, funding arrangements and acceptability to various stakeholders. Conclusions: Cognitive behavioural therapy provided by a public psychologist is the most effective and cost-effective option for the first-line treatment of MDD in children and adolescents. However, this option is not currently accessible by all patients and will require change in policy to allow more widespread uptake. It will also require 'start-up' costs and attention to ensuring an adequate workforce.

Cost-effectiveness of psychological and pharmacological interventions for generalized anxiety disorder and panic disorder

Objective: To assess from a health sector perspective the incremental cost-effectiveness of interventions for generalized anxiety disorder (cognitive behavioural therapy [CBT] and serotonin and noradrenaline reuptake inhibitors [SNRIs]) and panic disorder (CBT, selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors [SSRIs] and tricyclic antidepressants [TCAs]). Method: The health benefit is measured as a reduction in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), based on effect size calculations from meta-analyses of randomised controlled trials. An assessment on second stage filters ('equity', 'strength of evidence', 'feasibility' and 'acceptability to stakeholders') is also undertaken to incorporate additional factors that impact on resource allocation decisions. Costs and benefits are calculated for a period of one year for the eligible population (prevalent cases of generalized anxiety disorder/panic disorder identified in the National Survey of Mental Health and Wellbeing, extrapolated to the Australian population in the year 2000 for those aged 18 years and older). Simulation modelling techniques are used to present 95% uncertainty intervals (UI) around the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). Results: Compared to current practice, CBT by a psychologist on a public salary is the most cost-effective intervention for both generalized anxiety disorder (A$6900/DALY saved; 95% UI A$4000 to A$12 000) and panic disorder (A$6800/DALY saved; 95% UI A$2900 to A$15 000). Cognitive behavioural therapy results in a greater total health benefit than the drug interventions for both anxiety disorders, although equity and feasibility concerns for CBT interventions are also greater. Conclusions: Cognitive behavioural therapy is the most effective and cost-effective intervention for generalized anxiety disorder and panic disorder. However, its implementation would require policy change to enable more widespread access to a sufficient number of trained therapists for the treatment of anxiety disorders.

Acute care surgeon South American model

Background In the World Health Organization book by Murray and Lopez (The Global Burden of Disease), the authors make the point that there are major regional differences across the world for death from injury. In the European market economies, injuries accounted for 6% of all deaths, of which the majority were the result of road traffic accidents. In stark contrast, in Latin America and the Caribbean, injuries account for 12-13% of all deaths, and most of these are the result of violence. An estimated 30% of all male deaths are from external causes, and road traffic accidents are the number two cause of death. Within South American countries, trauma is the second most common cause of death in Columbia, Venezuela, Ecuador, and Brazil. In other South American countries, it is the third or fourth most common cause of death. If one examines the Disability Adjusted Life Years, South America is the third highest in the world. Death from injury primarily affects people in the middle- and low-income group. Traffic accidents and suicide are the main causes of trauma in the high-income population. South America is made up of developing and poor countries that have trauma as a very important cause of death and disability. Methods The author has reviewed information on injury from the World Health Organization, Pan American Health Organization, and Brazilian Health Ministry. In addition, a search of injury was performed through MEDLINE. Results and Conclusions The results of this review show that trauma is a major public health problem in South America. At the present time, there is a lack of statewide system development. In addition, there are difficulties in training surgeons to cope with these problems.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of routine rotavirus vaccination in Brazil

Objective. The objective of this study was to conduct a cost-effectiveness analysis of a universal rotavirus vaccination program among children : 5 years of age in Brazil. Methods. Considering a hypothetical annual cohort of approximately 3 300 000 newborns followed over 5 years, a decision-tree model was constructed to examine the possible clinical and economic effects of rotavirus infection with and without routine vaccination of children. Probabilities and unit costs were derived from published research and national administrative data. The impact of different estimates for key parameters was studied using sensitivity analysis. The analysis was conducted from both healthcare system and societal perspectives. Results. The vaccination program was estimated to prevent approximately 1735 351 (54%) of the 3 210 361 cases of rotavirus gastroenteritis and 703 (75%) of 933 rotavirus-associated deaths during the 5-year period. At a vaccine price of 18.6 Brazilian reais (R$) per dose, this program would cost R$121 673 966 and would save R$38 536 514 in direct costs to the public healthcare system and R$71 778 377 in direct and indirect costs to society. The program was estimated to cost R$1 028 and R$1 713 per life-years saved (LYS)from the societal and healthcare system perspectives, respectively. Conclusions. Universal rotavirus vaccination was a cost-effective strategy for both perspectives. However, these findings are highly sensitive to diarrhea incidence rate, proportion of severe cases, vaccine coverage, and vaccine price.

Illicit Opiate Abuse

Illicit opiate use, especially injected drugs, contributes to premature mortality and morbidity in many developed and developing societies. The economic costs of illicit drug use are substantial. Fatal overdoses and HIV/AIDS resulting from sharing dirty needles and injecting equipment are major contributors to mortality and morbidity. Illicit opioid use accounted for 0.7 percent of global disability–adjusted life years in 2000. An estimated 15.3 million people, or 0.4 percent of the world population ages 15 to 64, used illicit opioids in 2002, with more than half using heroin and the rest using opium or diverted pharmaceuticals such as buprenorphine, methadone, or morphine. The most popular interventions for illicit opioid dependence in many developed societies have been law enforcement efforts to interdict the drug supply and enforce legal sanctions against drug use. One consequence has been that illicit opioid users have been exposed to the least effective intervention: imprisonment for drug or property offenses. The most effective intervention to reduce blood–borne virus infection resulting from illicit drug injections is provision of clean injecting equipment to users. This intervention has been widely supported in developed countries, but less so in developing countries. In addition, vaccinations are effective against hepatitis B. In treatment settings, the most popular interventions have been detoxification and drug–free treatment, which has proven the least productive in retaining opioid–dependent people in treatment. Opioid agonists have a niche role in treatment of opioid dependence, especially if their efficacy improves with development of long–acting injectable forms of the drug.

Cholesterol-lowering therapy with pravastatin in patients with average cholesterol levels and established ischaemic heart disease: is it cost-effective?

Objective: To measure the cost-effectiveness of cholesterol-lowering therapy with pravastatin in patients with established ischaemic heart disease and average baseline cholesterol levels. Design: Prospective economic evaluation within a double-blind randomised trial (Long-Term Intervention with Pravastatin in Ischaemic Disease [LIPID]), in which patients with a history of unstable angina or previous myocardial infarction were randomised to receive 40 mg of pravastatin daily or matching placebo. Patients and setting: 9014 patients aged 35-75 years from 85 centres in Australia and New Zealand, recruited from June 1990 to December 1992. Main outcome measures: Cost per death averted, cost per life-year gained, and cost per quality-adjusted life-year gained, calculated from measures of hospitalisations, medication use, outpatient visits, and quality of life. Results: The LIPID trial showed a 22% relative reduction in all-cause mortality (P < 0.001). Over a mean follow-up of 6 years, hospital admissions for coronary heart disease and coronary revascularisation were reduced by about 20%. Over this period, pravastatin cost $A4913 per patient, but reduced total hospitalisation costs by $A1385 per patient and other long-term medication costs by $A360 per patient. In a subsample of patients, average quality of life was 0.98 (where 0 = dead and 1 = normal good health); the treatment groups were not significantly different. The absolute reduction in all-cause mortality was 3.0% (95% CI, 1.6%-4.4%), and the incremental cost was $3246 per patient, resulting in a cost per life saved of $107730 (95% Cl, $68626-$209881) within the study period. Extrapolating long-term survival from the placebo group, the undiscounted cost per life-year saved was $7695 (and $10 938 with costs and life-years discounted at an annual rate of 5%). Conclusions: Pravastatin therapy for patients with a history of myocardial infarction or unstable angina and average cholesterol levels reduces all-cause mortality and appears cost effective compared with accepted treatments in high-income countries.

On the economic analysis of response to preventive measures

There are many circumstances in which the effectiveness of preventive measures depends to a large extent on the compliance of the patient in changing his or her behavior or lifestyle. It is shown how economic techniques can be used (i) to describe the rationale of individuals and predict their behavior (Section 2); and (ii) to assess preventive measures that, by requiring a change of conduct, imply "costs" to the individual due to a decline in the quality of life (Appendix). Cigarette smoking and coronary heart disease are used as an illustration. While the analysis of Section 2 uses graphical techniques, a simple textbook-type of lifetime utility model with a mathematical emphasis is used in the Appendix. It is also shown that techniques often used to assess health care programs such as the QALYs (Quality-Adjusted Life Years) are inappropriate to the evaluation of preventive programs aiming at behavioral changes. Finally, topics that call for further research are indicated.