Public and private learning from prices, strategic substitutability and complementarity, and equilibrium multiplicity

We study a general static noisy rational expectations model where investors have private information about asset payoffs, with common and private components, and about their own exposure to an aggregate risk factor, and derive conditions for existence and uniqueness (or multiplicity) of equilibria. We find that a main driver of the characterization of equilibria is whether the actions of investors are strategic substitutes or complements. This latter property in turn is driven by the strength of a private learning channel from prices, arising from the multidimensional sources of asymmetric information, in relation to the usual public learning channel. When the private learning channel is strong (weak) in relation to the public we have strong (weak) strategic complementarity in actions and potentially multiple (unique) equilibria. The results enable a precise characterization of whether information acquisition decisions are strategic substitutes or complements. We find that the strategic substitutability in information acquisition result obtained in Grossman and Stiglitz (1980) is robust. JEL Classification: D82, D83, G14 Keywords: Rational expectations equilibrium, asymmetric information, risk exposure, hedging, supply information, information acquisition.

A Formal Framework for Specifying, Reusing and Implementing Learning Processes. First level

This file contains the ontology of patterns of educational settings, as part of the formal framework for specifying, reusing and implementing educational settings. Furthermore, it includes the set of rules that extend the ontology of educational scenarios as well as a brief description of the level of patters of such ontological framework.

Adaptive search and information updating in sequential mate choice

Classical treatments of problems of sequential mate choice assume that the distribution of the quality of potential mates is known a priori. This assumption, made for analytical purposes, may seem unrealistic, opposing empirical data as well as evolutionary arguments. Using stochastic dynamic programming, we develop a model that includes the possibility for searching individuals to learn about the distribution and in particular to update mean and variance during the search. In a constant environment, a priori knowledge of the parameter values brings strong benefits in both time needed to make a decision and average value of mate obtained. Knowing the variance yields more benefits than knowing the mean, and benefits increase with variance. However, the costs of learning become progressively lower as more time is available for choice. When parameter values differ between demes and/or searching periods, a strategy relying on fixed a priori information might lead to erroneous decisions, which confers advantages on the learning strategy. However, time for choice plays an important role as well: if a decision must be made rapidly, a fixed strategy may do better even when the fixed image does not coincide with the local parameter values. These results help in delineating the ecological-behavior context in which learning strategies may spread.

Advanced geostatistical and machine-learning models for spatial data analysis of radioactively contaminated regions

Radioactive soil-contamination mapping and risk assessment is a vital issue for decision makers. Traditional approaches for mapping the spatial concentration of radionuclides employ various regression-based models, which usually provide a single-value prediction realization accompanied (in some cases) by estimation error. Such approaches do not provide the capability for rigorous uncertainty quantification or probabilistic mapping. Machine learning is a recent and fast-developing approach based on learning patterns and information from data. Artificial neural networks for prediction mapping have been especially powerful in combination with spatial statistics. A data-driven approach provides the opportunity to integrate additional relevant information about spatial phenomena into a prediction model for more accurate spatial estimates and associated uncertainty. Machine-learning algorithms can also be used for a wider spectrum of problems than before: classification, probability density estimation, and so forth. Stochastic simulations are used to model spatial variability and uncertainty. Unlike regression models, they provide multiple realizations of a particular spatial pattern that allow uncertainty and risk quantification. This paper reviews the most recent methods of spatial data analysis, prediction, and risk mapping, based on machine learning and stochastic simulations in comparison with more traditional regression models. The radioactive fallout from the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant accident is used to illustrate the application of the models for prediction and classification problems. This fallout is a unique case study that provides the challenging task of analyzing huge amounts of data ('hard' direct measurements, as well as supplementary information and expert estimates) and solving particular decision-oriented problems.

Predicting diffusion of innovations with self-organisation and machine learning

The main subject of this master's thesis was predicting diffusion of innovations. The prediction was done in a special case: product has been available in some countries, and based on its diffusion in those countries the prediction is done for other countries. The prediction was based on finding similar countries with Self-Organizing Map~(SOM), using parameters of countries. Parameters included various economical and social key figures. SOM was optimised for different products using two different methods: (a) by adding diffusion information of products to the country parameters, and (b) by weighting the country parameters based on their importance for the diffusion of different products. A novel method using Differential Evolution (DE) was developed to solve the latter, highly non-linear optimisation problem. Results were fairly good. The prediction method seems to be on a solid theoretical foundation. The results based on country data were good. Instead, optimisation for different products did not generally offer clear benefit, but in some cases the improvement was clearly noticeable. The weights found for the parameters of the countries with the developed SOM optimisation method were interesting, and most of them could be explained by properties of the products.

Undergraduate palliative care teaching in Swiss medical faculties: a nationwide survey and improved learning objectives.

BACKGROUND: In 2007, a first survey on undergraduate palliative care teaching in Switzerland has revealed major heterogeneity of palliative care content, allocation of hours and distribution throughout the 6 year curriculum in Swiss medical faculties. This second survey in 2012/13 has been initiated as part of the current Swiss national strategy in palliative care (2010 - 2015) to serve as a longitudinal monitoring instrument and as a basis for redefinition of palliative care learning objectives and curriculum planning in our country. METHODS: As in 2007, a questionnaire was sent to the deans of all five medical faculties in Switzerland in 2012. It consisted of eight sections: basic background information, current content and hours in dedicated palliative care blocks, current palliative care content in other courses, topics related to palliative care presented in other courses, recent attempts at improving palliative care content, palliative care content in examinations, challenges, and overall summary. Content analysis was performed and the results matched with recommendations from the EAPC for undergraduate training in palliative medicine as well as with recommendations from overseas countries. RESULTS: There is a considerable increase in palliative care content, academic teaching staff and hours in all medical faculties compared to 2007. No Swiss medical faculty reaches the range of 40 h dedicated specifically to palliative care as recommended by the EAPC. Topics, teaching methods, distribution throughout different years and compulsory attendance still differ widely. Based on these results, the official Swiss Catalogue of Learning Objectives (SCLO) was complemented with 12 new learning objectives for palliative and end of life care (2013), and a national basic script for palliative care was published (2015). CONCLUSION: Performing periodic surveys of palliative care teaching at national medical faculties has proven to be a useful tool to adapt the national teaching framework and to improve the recognition of palliative medicine as an integral part of medical training.

The generation effect and word learning: a test of the effect of the language experience approach versus the text approach in the acquisition of new reading vocabulary

A class of twenty-two grade one children was tested to determine their reading levels using the Stanford Diagnostic Reading Achievement Test. Based on these results and teacher input the students were paired according to reading ability. The students ages ranged from six years four months to seven years four months at the commencement of the study. Eleven children were assigned to the language experience group and their partners became the text group. Each member of the language experience group generated a list of eight to be learned words. The treatment consisted of exposing the student to a given word three times per session for ten sessions, over a period of five days. The dependent variables consisted of word identification speed, word identification accuracy, and word recognition accuracy. Each member of the text group followed the same procedure using his/her partner's list of words. Upon completion of this training, the entire process was repeated with members of the text group from the first part becoming members of the language experience group and vice versa. The results suggest that generally speaking language experience words are identified faster than text words but that there is no difference in the rate at which these words are learned. Language experience words may be identified faster because the auditory-semantic information is more readily available in them than in text words. The rate of learning in both types of words, however, may be dictated by the orthography of the to be learned word.

The relationship of individual, team and organizational learning in Ontario hospital clinical labratories

I t is generally accepted among scholars that individual learning and team learning contribute to the concept we refer to as organizational learning. However, a small number of quantitative and qualitative studies that have investigated their relationship reported contradicting results. This thesis investigated the relationship between individual learning, team learning, and organizational learning. A survey instrument was used to collect information on individual learning, team learning, and organizational learning. The study sample comprised of supervisors from the clinical laboratories in teaching hospitals and community hospitals in Ontario. The analyses utilized a linear regression to investigate the relationship between individual and team learning. The relationship between individual and organizational learning, and team and organizational learning were simultaneously investigated with canonical correlation and set correlation. T-test and multivariate analysis of variance were used to compare the differences in learning scores of respondents employed by laboratories in teaching and those employed by community hospitals. The study validated its tests results with 1,000 bootstrap replications. Results from this study suggest that there are moderate correlations between individual learning and team learning. The correlation individual learning and organizational learning and team learning and organizational learning appeared to be weak. The scores of the three learning levels show statistically significant differences between respondents from laboratories in teaching hospitals and respondents from community hospitals.

The Courseware Watchdog: an ontology-based tool for finding and organizing learning material

Topics in education are changing with an ever faster pace. E-Learning resources tend to be more and more decentralised. Users need increasingly to be able to use the resources of the web. For this, they should have tools for finding and organizing information in a decentral way. In this, paper, we show how an ontology-based tool suite allows to make the most of the resources available on the web.

Distributional semantics and machine learning for statistical machine translation

[EU]Lan honetan semantika distribuzionalaren eta ikasketa automatikoaren erabilera aztertzen dugu itzulpen automatiko estatistikoa hobetzeko. Bide horretan, erregresio logistikoan oinarritutako ikasketa automatikoko eredu bat proposatzen dugu hitz-segiden itzulpen- probabilitatea modu dinamikoan modelatzeko. Proposatutako eredua itzulpen automatiko estatistikoko ohiko itzulpen-probabilitateen orokortze bat dela frogatzen dugu, eta testuinguruko nahiz semantika distribuzionaleko informazioa barneratzeko baliatu ezaugarri lexiko, hitz-cluster eta hitzen errepresentazio bektorialen bidez. Horretaz gain, semantika distribuzionaleko ezagutza itzulpen automatiko estatistikoan txertatzeko beste hurbilpen bat lantzen dugu: hitzen errepresentazio bektorial elebidunak erabiltzea hitz-segiden itzulpenen antzekotasuna modelatzeko. Gure esperimentuek proposatutako ereduen baliagarritasuna erakusten dute, emaitza itxaropentsuak eskuratuz oinarrizko sistema sendo baten gainean. Era berean, gure lanak ekarpen garrantzitsuak egiten ditu errepresentazio bektorialen mapaketa elebidunei eta hitzen errepresentazio bektorialetan oinarritutako hitz-segiden antzekotasun neurriei dagokienean, itzulpen automatikoaz haratago balio propio bat dutenak semantika distribuzionalaren arloan.

Awareness of number in children with severe and profound learning difficulties: three exploratory case studies

This paper reports on exploratory work investigating how children with severe and profound learning difficulties register an awareness of small quantities and how they might use this information to inform their understanding. It draws on studies of typically developing children and investigates their application to pupils whose response to conventional mathematical tasks are often limited because they lack relevance and interest. The responses of the three pupils to individualized learning contexts mirror the progression suggested in the literature, namely from awareness of number to simple actions using number cues to problem-solving behaviour

The assessment of the quality of sugar using electronic tongue and machine learning algorithms

The correct classification of sugar according to its physico-chemical characteristics directly influences the value of the product and its acceptance by the market. This study shows that using an electronic tongue system along with established techniques of supervised learning leads to the correct classification of sugar samples according to their qualities. In this paper, we offer two new real, public and non-encoded sugar datasets whose attributes were automatically collected using an electronic tongue, with and without pH controlling. Moreover, we compare the performance achieved by several established machine learning methods. Our experiments were diligently designed to ensure statistically sound results and they indicate that k-nearest neighbors method outperforms other evaluated classifiers and, hence, it can be used as a good baseline for further comparison. © 2012 IEEE.

Can neuroimaging be used as a support to diagnosis of borderline personality disorder? An approach based on computational neuroanatomy and machine learning

Several recent studies in literature have identified brain morphological alterations associated to Borderline Personality Disorder (BPD) patients. These findings are reported by studies based on voxel-based-morphometry analysis of structural MRI data, comparing mean gray-matter concentration between groups of BPD patients and healthy controls. On the other hand, mean differences between groups are not informative about the discriminative value of neuroimaging data to predict the group of individual subjects. In this paper, we go beyond mean differences analyses, and explore to what extent individual BPD patients can be differentiated from controls (25 subjects in each group), using a combination of automated-morphometric tools for regional cortical thickness/volumetric estimation and Support Vector Machine classifier. The approach included a feature selection step in order to identify the regions containing most discriminative information. The accuracy of this classifier was evaluated using the leave-one-subject-out procedure. The brain regions indicated as containing relevant information to discriminate groups were the orbitofrontal, rostral anterior cingulate, posterior cingulate, middle temporal cortices, among others. These areas, which are distinctively involved in emotional and affect regulation of BPD patients, were the most informative regions to achieve both sensitivity and specificity values of 80% in SVM classification. The findings suggest that this new methodology can add clinical and potential diagnostic value to neuroimaging of psychiatric disorders. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

From the Vice President for Library and Information Technology: Spring 2012

Param Bedi discusses technology adoption by students and its impact on teaching and learning.

Combining Wireless Sensor Networks and Machine Learning for Flash Flood Nowcasting

This paper addresses an investigation with machine learning (ML) classification techniques to assist in the problem of flash flood now casting. We have been attempting to build a Wireless Sensor Network (WSN) to collect measurements from a river located in an urban area. The machine learning classification methods were investigated with the aim of allowing flash flood now casting, which in turn allows the WSN to give alerts to the local population. We have evaluated several types of ML taking account of the different now casting stages (i.e. Number of future time steps to forecast). We have also evaluated different data representation to be used as input of the ML techniques. The results show that different data representation can lead to results significantly better for different stages of now casting.