Simpson's paradox: A logically benign, empirically treacherous hydra

This article examines Simpson's paradox as applied to the theory of probabilites and percentages. The author discusses possible flaws in the paradox and compares it to the Sure Thing Principle, statistical inference, causal inference and probabilistic analyses of causation.

The paradox of commercialising public sector intellectual property

The juxtapositioning of government providing a public good through research and development investment on one hand and engaging in commercialisation of the research outcome on the other is a paradox. Using agricultural research as an example, we examine the nature of the paradox to determine if commercialisation potentially leads to a conflict in the role of public research institutions set up to fulfil public good responsibilities. We identify the reasons for the shift in policy towards commercialisation and greater exploitation of public sector intellectual property and how this has contributed to the emergence of the apparent inconsistency. We argue that the belief in working for public good is inherent and embedded in an organisation's history and its wider operating environment. We propose that the creation of public sector intellectual property and its commercialisation are influenced by the political, social and economic environment in which the public institutions operate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paradox in ageing well: stories of older women in the Australian women's weeky

This Article does not have an abstract.

Yablo's paradox and referring to infinite objects

The blame for the semantic and set-theoretic paradoxes is often placed on self-reference and circularity. Some years ago, Yablo [1985; 1993] challenged this diagnosis, by producing a paradox that's liar-like but does not seem to involve circularity. But is Yablo's paradox really non-circular? In a recent paper, Beall [2001] has suggested that there are no means available to refer to Yablo's paradox without invoking descriptions, and since Priest [1997] has shown that any such description is circular, Beall concludes that Yablo's paradox itself is circular. In this paper, we argue that Beall's conclusion is unwarranted, given that (1) descriptions are not the only way to refer to Yablo's paradox, and (ii) we have no reason to believe that because the description involves self-reference, the denotation of the description is also circular. As a result, for all that's been said so far, we have no reason to believe that Yablo's paradox is circular.

Climate paradox of the G-8: legal obligations, policy declarations and implementation gap

This article analyzes the climate policy performance of the G-8 from 1992 to 2012 based on their legal commitments (Annex-1 and Annex-B countries) under the UNFCCC (1992) and the Kyoto Protocol (1997) and their policy declarations on their GHG reduction goals until 2050. A climate paradox has emerged due to a growing implementation gap in Canada, USA and Japan, while Russia, Germany, UK, France and Italy fulfilled their GHG reduction obligation.

Which factors could explain the low birth weight paradox?

OBJECTIVE: Low birth weight children are unusual among well-off families. However, in Brazil, low birth weight rate was higher in a more developed city than in a less developed one. The study objective was to find out the reasons to explain this paradox. METHODS: A study was carried out in two municipalities, Ribeirão Preto (Southeastern Brazil) and São Luís (Northeastern Brazil), which low birth weight rates were 10.7% and 7.6% respectively. Data from two birth cohorts were analyzed: 2,839 newborns in Ribeirão Preto in 1994 and 2,439 births in São Luís in 1997-1998. Multiple logistic regression analysis was performed, adjusted for confounders. RESULTS: Low birth weight risk factors in São Luís were primiparity, maternal smoking and maternal age less than 18 years. In Ribeirão Preto, the associated variables were family income between one and three minimum wages, maternal age less than 18 and equal to or more than 35 years, maternal smoking and cesarean section. In a combined model including both cohorts, Ribeirão Preto presented a 45% higher risk of low birth weight than São Luís. When adjusted for maternal smoking habit, the excess risk for low birth weight in Ribeirão Preto compared to São Luís was reduced by 49%, but the confidence interval was marginally significant. Differences in cesarean section rates between both cities contributed to partially explain the paradox. CONCLUSIONS: Maternal smoking was the most important risk factor for explaining the difference in low birth weight between both cities. The other factors contributed little to explain the difference in low birth weight rates.

The epidemiologic paradox of low birth weight in Brazil

OBJECTIVE: To examine whether the low birth weight (LBW) paradox exists in Brazil. METHODS: LBW and cesarean section rates between 1995 and 2007 were estimated based on data from SINASC (Brazilian Live Births Database). Infant mortality rates (IMRs) were obtained using an indirect method that correct for underreporting. Schooling information was obtained from census data. Trends in LBW rate were assessed using joinpoint regression models. The correlations between LBW rate and other indicators were graphically assessed by lowess regression and tested using Spearman's rank correlation. RESULTS: In Brazil, LBW rate trends were non-linear and non-significant: the rate dropped from 7.9% in 1995 to 7.7% in 2000, then increased to 8.2% in 2003 and remained nearly steady thereafter at 8.2% in 2007. However, trends varied among Brazilian regions: there were significant increases in the North from 1999 to 2003 (2.7% per year), and in the South (1.0% per year) and Central-West regions (0.6% per year) from 1995 to 2007. For the entire period studied, higher LBW and lower IMRs were seen in more developed compared to less developed regions. In Brazilian States, in 2005, the higher the IMR rate, the lower the LBW rate (p=0.009); the lower the low schooling rate, the lower the LBW rate (p=0.007); the higher the number of neonatal intensive care beds per 1,000 live births, the higher the LBW rate (p=0.036). CONCLUSIONS: The low birth weight paradox was seen in Brazil. LBW rate is increasing in some Brazilian regions. Regional differences in LBW rate seem to be more associated to availability of perinatal care services than underlying social conditions.

Leadership paradoxes in Angolan organizations: Emic paradoxes, etic paradoxes, and paradox work

The study departs from two assumptions. First, it considers that organizations and their leadership are inherently paradoxical and that, in that sense, dealing with paradox is a necessary component of the leadership process. Second, it explores whether the paradoxes of leadership may manifest differently in different contexts. We explore the emergence of paradox in the leadership of Angolan organizations. Angola is an economy transitioning from a centrally-planned to a market mode, and this makes it a rich site for understanding the specificities of paradoxical processes in an under-researched, “rest of the world”, context. The findings of our inductive study led to the emergence of four interrelated paradoxes and highlight the importance of paradoxical work as a management requirement.

Overcoming the “European Paradox”: The role of Regional Innovation Systems (RIS) in translating R&D investments into economic and employment growth

The emergence of the so-called “European Paradox” shows that R&D investment is not maximally effective and that increasing the scale of public R&D expenditures is not sufficient to generate employment and sustained economic growth. Increasing Governmental R&D Investment is far from being a “panacea” for stagnant growth. It is worth noting that Government R&D Investment does not have a statistically significant impact on employment, indicating the need to assess the trade-offs of policies that could lead to significant increases in government expenditure. Surprisingly, Governmental R&D Employment does not contribute to “mass-market” employment, despite its quite important role in reducing Youth-Unemployment. Despite the negative side-effects of Governmental R&D Employment on both GVA and GDP, University R&D Employment appears to have a quite important role in reducing Unemployment, especially Youth-Unemployment, while it also does not have a downside in terms of economic growth. Technological Capacity enhancement is the most effective instrument for reducing Unemployment and is a policy without any downside regarding sustainable economical development. In terms of wider policy implications, the results reinforce the idea that European Commission Research and Innovation policies must be restructured, shifting from a transnational framework to a more localised, measurable and operational approach.

Paradox of choice: The influence of assortment size on customer satisfaction

Recently researchers showed that more choice is not always better. Choosing from large assortments can be overwhelming, raising expectations and decreasing overall level of consumer satisfaction. Author contributes to existing overchoice studies by using real assortment of online stores to find influence of assortment size on customer satisfaction. 90 students participated in the main experiment, where they chose a smartphone case for their friend. Results of the study show that large assortment size leads to higher expectations, higher choice difficulty and higher level of satisfaction. This research does not show overchoice presence and author suggests future studies could focus more on assortment variety and more personal characteristics of consumers, like preference uncertainty.

The Feedback Effect of Intensity of Ionizing Radiation With the Light Ions Content in Atmosphere. Paradox (the Tbilisi Type of a Smog), or Usual Phenomenon for the Strongly Pollution Cities?.

თბილისში მსუბუქი იონების, რადონის და გალაქტიკური კოსმოსური სხივების ნეიტრონული კომპონენტის ინტენსივობის 2009-2010 წლებში კომპლექსური მონიტორინგის მონაცემების მიხედვით გამოვლენილია მაიონიზებელი გამოსხივების ინტენსივობისა და ატმოსფეროში მსუბუქი იონების შემცველობის უკუკავშირის ეფექტი.

Consumers' behavior and the Bertrand paradox: an ACE approach

We analyze the classical Bertrand model when consumers exhibit some strategic behavior in deciding from which seller they will buy. We use two related but different tools. Both consider a probabilistic learning (or evolutionary) mechanism, and in the two of them consumers' behavior in uences the competition between the sellers. The results obtained show that, in general, developing some sort of loyalty is a good strategy for the buyers as it works in their best interest. First, we consider a learning procedure described by a deterministic dynamic system and, using strong simplifying assumptions, we can produce a description of the process behavior. Second, we use nite automata to represent the strategies played by the agents and an adaptive process based on genetic algorithms to simulate the stochastic process of learning. By doing so we can relax some of the strong assumptions used in the rst approach and still obtain the same basic results. It is suggested that the limitations of the rst approach (analytical) provide a good motivation for the second approach (Agent-Based). Indeed, although both approaches address the same problem, the use of Agent-Based computational techniques allows us to relax hypothesis and overcome the limitations of the analytical approach.

Experimental evidence of a sunk–cost paradox: a study of pricing behavior in Bertrand–Edgeworth duopoly

A well–known implication of microeconomic theory is that sunk costs should have no effect on decision making. We test this hypothesis with a human–subjects experiment. Students recruited from graduate business courses, with an average of over six years of work experience, played the role of firms in a repeated price–setting duopoly game in which both firms had identical capacity constraints and costs, including a sunk cost that varied across experimental sessions over six different values. We find, contrary to the prediction of microeconomic theory, that subjects’ pricing decisions show sizable differences across treatments. The effect of the sunk cost is non–monotonic: as it increases from low to medium levels, average prices decrease, but as it increases from medium to high levels, average prices increase. These effects are not apparent initially, but develop quickly and persist throughout the game. Cachon and Camerer’s (1996) loss avoidance is consistent with both effects, while cost–based pricing predicts only the latter effect, and is inconsistent with the former.