A 27 day persistence model of near-Earth solar wind conditions: a long lead-time forecast and a benchmark for dynamical models

Geomagnetic activity has long been known to exhibit approximately 27 day periodicity, resulting from solar wind structures repeating each solar rotation. Thus a very simple near-Earth solar wind forecast is 27 day persistence, wherein the near-Earth solar wind conditions today are assumed to be identical to those 27 days previously. Effective use of such a persistence model as a forecast tool, however, requires the performance and uncertainty to be fully characterized. The first half of this study determines which solar wind parameters can be reliably forecast by persistence and how the forecast skill varies with the solar cycle. The second half of the study shows how persistence can provide a useful benchmark for more sophisticated forecast schemes, namely physics-based numerical models. Point-by-point assessment methods, such as correlation and mean-square error, find persistence skill comparable to numerical models during solar minimum, despite the 27 day lead time of persistence forecasts, versus 2–5 days for numerical schemes. At solar maximum, however, the dynamic nature of the corona means 27 day persistence is no longer a good approximation and skill scores suggest persistence is out-performed by numerical models for almost all solar wind parameters. But point-by-point assessment techniques are not always a reliable indicator of usefulness as a forecast tool. An event-based assessment method, which focusses key solar wind structures, finds persistence to be the most valuable forecast throughout the solar cycle. This reiterates the fact that the means of assessing the “best” forecast model must be specifically tailored to its intended use.

Supplementation of Nellore young bulls on Marandu grass pastures in the dry period of the year

The objective of this study was to evaluate performance and daytime ingestive behavior of 84 Nellore young bulls in the post-weaning phase kept on Brachiaria brizantha cv. Marandu pastures during the dry season. Treatments were protein mineral supplementation (1 g/kg body weight) and protein+energy mineral supplementation (3 g/kg body weight). The experimental area comprised 12 paddocks in a total area of 27.36 ha, divided in two blocks of six paddocks each, having three replications per treatment in each block, with 42 animals/treatment. The data were subjected to variance analysis with repeated measures over time via procedure PROCMIXED of SAS (Statistical Analysis System, version 9.0) and means were compared by the Tukey test at 5% probability. The initial average weight of animals was 204.8 kg; final weights were 260.9 and 276.9 kg for animals that received protein and protein+energy supplement, respectively. The forage availability, sward height and stocking rate values did not differ with supplementation, but they showed difference between the experimental periods. The average time spent grazing during daylight of animals fed protein+energy supplement was shorter as compared with those which consumed protein supplement. Animals kept under the same pasture conditions during the dry season show better performance when they receive protein+energy supplement than protein supplement.

Stable carbon (delta(13)C) and nitrogen (delta(15)N) isotopes as natural indicators of live and dry food in Piaractus mesopotamicus (Holmberg, 1887) larval tissue

This study proposed the use of the stable isotope technique to track the type of food utilized by pacu Piaractus mesopotamicus larvae during their development, and to identify the moment when the larvae start using nutrients from the dry diet by retaining its carbon and nitrogen atoms in their body tissues. Five-day-old pacu larvae at the onset of exogenous feeding were fed Artemia nauplii or formulated diet exclusively; nauplii+formulated diet during the entire period; or were weaned from nauplii to a dry diet after 3, 6 or 12 days after the first feeding. delta(13)C and delta(15)N values for Artemia nauplii were -15.1 parts per thousand and 4.7 parts per thousand, respectively, and -25.0 parts per thousand and 7.4 parts per thousand for the dry diet. The initial isotopic composition of the larval tissue was -20.2 parts per thousand and 9.5 parts per thousand for delta(13)C and delta(15)N respectively. Later, at the end of a 42-day feeding period, larvae fed Artemia nauplii alone reached values of -12.7 parts per thousand and 7.0 parts per thousand for delta(13)C and delta(15)N respectively. Larvae that received the formulated diet alone showed values of -22.7 parts per thousand for delta(13)C and 9.6 parts per thousand for delta(15)N. The stable isotope technique was precise, and the time at which the larvae utilized Artemia nauplii, and later dry diet as a food source could be clearly defined.

Different substances and dry-needling injections in patients with myofascial pain and headaches

Trigger point injections with different solutions have been studied mainly with regard to the management of myofascial pain (MFP) patient management. However, few studies have analyzed their effect in a chronic headache population with associated MFP. The purpose of this study was to assess if trigger point injections using lidocaine associated with corticoid would be better than lidocaine alone, as in comparison with dry-needling in for the management of local pain and associated headache management. Forty-five (45) myofascial pain patients with headaches that could be reproduced by activating at least one trigger point, were randomly assigned into one of the three groups: G1, dry-needling, G2, 0.25% lidocaine, at 0.25% and G3, 0.25% lidocaine at 0.25% associated with corticoid, and were assessed during a 12 week period. Levels of pain intensity, frequency and duration, local post-injection sensitivity, obtainment time and duration of relief, and the use of rescue medication were evaluated. Statistically, all three groups showed favorable results for the evaluated requisites (p <= 0.05), but only for post-injection sensitivity did the association of lidocaine with corticoid present the best results and ingestion of rescue medication.

Rainwater major and trace element contents in Southeastern Brazil: an assessment of a sugar cane region in dry and wet period

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Aerosol profiling with lidar in the Amazon Basin during the wet and dry season

For the first time, multiwavelength polarization Raman lidar observations of optical and microphysical particle properties over the Amazon Basin are presented. The fully automated advanced Raman lidar was deployed 60 km north of Manaus, Brazil (2.5 degrees S, 60 degrees W) in the Amazon rain forest from January to November 2008. The measurements thus cover both the wet season (Dec-June) and the dry or burning season (July-Nov). Two cases studies of young and aged smoke plumes are discussed in terms of spectrally resolved optical properties (355, 532, and 1064 nm) and further lidar products such as particle effective radius and single-scattering albedo. These measurement examples confirm that biomass burning aerosols show a broad spectrum of optical, microphysical, and chemical properties. The statistical analysis of the entire measurement period revealed strong differences between the pristine wet and the polluted dry season. African smoke and dust advection frequently interrupt the pristine phases during the wet season. Compared to pristine wet season conditions, the particle scattering coefficients in the lowermost 2 km of the atmosphere were found to be enhanced, on average, by a factor of 4 during periods of African aerosol intrusion and by a factor of 6 during the dry (burning) season. Under pristine conditions, the particle extinction coefficients and optical depth for 532 nm wavelength were frequently as low as 10-30 Mm(-1) and <0.05, respectively. During the dry season, biomass burning smoke plumes reached to 3-5 km height and caused a mean optical depth at 532 nm of 0.26. On average during that season, particle extinction coefficients (532 nm) were of the order of 100 Mm(-1) in the main pollution layer (up to 2 km height). Angstrom exponents were mainly between 1.0 and 1.5, and the majority of the observed lidar ratios were between 50-80 sr.

Rainwater major and trace element contents in Southeastern Brazil: an assessment of a sugar cane region in dry and wet period

The purpose of this study was to assess the composition of the rainwater in Araraquara City, Brazil, a region strongly influenced by pre-harvest burning of sugar cane crops. Chemical and mineralogical variables were measured in rainwater collected during the harvest, dry period of 2009 and the non-harvest, wet period of 2010. Ca2+ and NH4+ were responsible for 55% of cations and NO3- for 45% of anions in rainwater. Al and Fe along with K were the most abundant among trace elements in both soluble and insoluble fractions. High volume weighted mean concentration (VWM) for most of the analyzed species were observed in the harvest, dry period, mainly due to agricultural activities and meteorological conditions. The chemistry of the Araraquara rainwater and principal component analysis (PCA) quantification clearly indicate the concurrence of a diversity of sources from natural to anthropogenic especially related to agricultural activities.

Left, right and interval bivariate censored data: Evaluating screening mammography in the presence of lead -time bias, length bias and over-detection

Of the large clinical trials evaluating screening mammography efficacy, none included women ages 75 and older. Recommendations on an upper age limit at which to discontinue screening are based on indirect evidence and are not consistent. Screening mammography is evaluated using observational data from the SEER-Medicare linked database. Measuring the benefit of screening mammography is difficult due to the impact of lead-time bias, length bias and over-detection. The underlying conceptual model divides the disease into two stages: pre-clinical (T0) and symptomatic (T1) breast cancer. Treating the time in these phases as a pair of dependent bivariate observations, (t0,t1), estimates are derived to describe the distribution of this random vector. To quantify the effect of screening mammography, statistical inference is made about the mammography parameters that correspond to the marginal distribution of the symptomatic phase duration (T1). This shows the hazard ratio of death from breast cancer comparing women with screen-detected tumors to those detected at their symptom onset is 0.36 (0.30, 0.42), indicating a benefit among the screen-detected cases. ^

(Table 2) Ice rafted debris abundance and accumulation rate, sedimentation rate and dry bulk density of bottom sediments from the Sea of Okhotsk

Oxygen isotope records, radiocarbon AMS data, carbonate and opal stratigraphy, sediment magnetic susceptibility, tephrachronology, and paleontological results were used to obtain detailed sediment stratigraphy and an age model for the studied cores. For studying sea-ice sedimentation an analysis of lithogenic grain number in >0.15 mm grain size fraction of bottom sediments was carried out. For quantitative estimation of intensity ice-rafting debris sedimentation number of IRD particles per sq cm per ka was calculated. Obtained results allowed to plot IRD AR distribution for the first oxygen isotope stage (0-12.5 14C ka, 14C) and for the second stage (12.5-24 14C ka). The first stage was subdivided into the latest deglaciation and the beginning of Holocene (6-12.5 14C ka) (transitive period), when the sea level was changing significantly, and the second part of Holocene (0-6 14C ka), when climate conditions and the sea level were similar to modern estimates. Data clearly show strong increase in ice formation in the glacial Sea of Okhotsk and its extent in the middle part of the sea. Average annual duration of ice coverage during glaciation was longer than that for interglaciation. However the sea ice cover was not continuous all the year round and disappeared in summer time except the far northwestern part of the sea.

Determination of preventive maintenance lead time using hybrid analysis

The time for conducting Preventive Maintenance (PM) on an asset is often determined using a predefined alarm limit based on trends of a hazard function. In this paper, the authors propose using both hazard and reliability functions to improve the accuracy of the prediction particularly when the failure characteristic of the asset whole life is modelled using different failure distributions for the different stages of the life of the asset. The proposed method is validated using simulations and case studies.

Effects of lime content and amelioration period in double lime application on the strength of lime treated expansive sub-grade soils

The addition of lime into soils has been widely used to stabilize the expansive sub-grade soils when the road pavements are constructed on them. It is common practice to apply a half of the required lime amount and allow a certain time period for lime to react with soils (Amelioration period) before applying the rest of lime and compacting the sub-grade. The optimum amelioration period is essential to minimize the construction delay and to gain the higher strength. In this study, two different expansive soils procured from two different locations in the state of Queensland in Australia were first mixed with different lime contents. A soil mixed with a particular lime content was compacted at different amelioration periods (e.g.: 0, 6, 12, 18, 24 hrs) to obtain soil samples to measure the Unconfined Compressive Strength (UCS). The results suggested that for a given amelioration period, UCS increased with the increase in lime content. The optimum amelioration period could be within 14~17 hours for most of the lime contents in tested soils. This could suggest that the current 24-48 hour amelioration period specified by the Queensland Department of Transport and Main roads could be reduced.

Analysis of arm elevation muscle activity through different movement planes and speeds during in-water and dry-land exercise

Objective The objectives of this cross-sectional, analytical inference analysis were to compare shoulder muscle activation at arm elevations of 0° to 90° through different movement planes and speeds during in-water and dry-land exercise and to extrapolate this information to a clinical rehabilitation model. Methods Six muscles of right-handed adult subjects (n = 16; males/females: 50%; age: 26.1 ± 4.5 years) were examined with surface electromyography during arm elevation in water and on dry land. Participants randomly performed 3 elevation movements (flexion, abduction, and scaption) through 0° to 90°. Three movement speeds were used for each movement as determined by a metronome (30°/sec, 45°/sec, and 90°/sec). Dry-land maximal voluntary contraction tests were used to determine movement normalization. Results Muscle activity levels were significantly lower in water compared with dry land at 30°/sec and 45°/sec but significantly higher at 90°/sec. This sequential progressive activation with increased movement speed was proportionally higher on transition from gravity-based on-land activity to water-based isokinetic resistance. The pectoralis major and latissimus dorsi muscles showed higher activity during abduction and scaption. Conclusions These findings on muscle activation suggest protocols in which active flexion is introduced first at low speeds (30°/sec) in water, then at medium speeds (45°/sec) in water or on dry land, and finally at high speeds (90°/sec) on dry land before in water. Abduction requires higher stabilization, necessitating its introduction after flexion, with scaption introduced last. This model of progressive sequential movement ensures that early active motion and then stabilization are appropriately introduced. This should reduce rehabilitation time and improve therapeutic goals without compromising patient safety or introducing inappropriate muscle recruitment or movement speed.

Effect of timing of a deficit-irrigation allocation on corn evapotranspiration, yield, water use efficiency and dry mass

Water regulations have decreased irrigation water supplies in Nebraska and some other areas of the USA Great Plains. When available water is not enough to meet crop water requirements during the entire growing cycle, it becomes critical to know the proper irrigation timing that would maximize yields and profits. This study evaluated the effect of timing of a deficit-irrigation allocation (150 mm) on crop evapotranspiration (ETc), yield, water use efficiency (WUE = yield/ETc), irrigation water use efficiency (IWUE = yield/irrigation), and dry mass (DM) of corn (Zea mays L.) irrigated with subsurface drip irrigation in the semiarid climate of North Platte, NE. During 2005 and 2006, a total of sixteen irrigation treatments (eight each year) were evaluated, which received different percentages of the water allocation during July, August, and September. During both years, all treatments resulted in no crop stress during the vegetative period and stress during the reproductive stages, which affected ETc, DM, yield, WUE and IWUE. Among treatments, ETc varied by 7.2 and 18.8%; yield by 17 and 33%; WUE by 12 and 22%, and IWUE by 18 and 33% in 2005 and 2006, respectively. Yield and WUE both increased linearly with ETc and with ETc/ETp (ETp = seasonal ETc with no water stress), and WUE increased linearly with yield. The yield response factor (ky) averaged 1.50 over the two seasons. Irrigation timing affected the DM of the plant, grain, and cob, but not that of the stover. It also affected the percent of DM partitioned to the grain (harvest index), which increased linearly with ETc and averaged 56.2% over the two seasons, but did not affect the percent allocated to the cob or stover. Irrigation applied in July had the highest positive coefficient of determination (R2) with yield. This high positive correlation decreased considerably for irrigation applied in August, and became negative for irrigation applied in September. The best positive correlation between the soil water deficit factor (Ks) and yield occurred during weeks 12-14 from crop emergence, during the "milk" and "dough" growth stages. Yield was poorly correlated to stress during weeks 15 and 16, and the correlation became negative after week 17. Dividing the 150 mm allocation about evenly among July, August and September was a good strategy resulting in the highest yields in 2005, but not in 2006. Applying a larger proportion of the allocation in July was a good strategy during both years, and the opposite resulted when applying a large proportion of the allocation in September. The different results obtained between years indicate that flexible irrigation scheduling techniques should be adopted, rather than relying on fixed timing strategies.

Pest-damage relationships for Helicoverpa armigera (Hübner) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) on soybean (Glycine max) and dry bean (Phaseolus vulgaris) during pod-fill.

The response of soybean (Glycine max) and dry bean (Phaseolus vulgaris) to feeding by Helicoverpa armigera during the pod-fill stage was studied in irrigated field cages over three seasons to determine the relationship between larval density and yield loss, and to develop economic injury levels. H. armigera intensity was calculated in Helicoverpa injury equivalent (HIE) units, where 1 HIE was the consumption of one larva from the start of the infestation period to pupation. In the dry bean experiment, yield loss occurred at a rate 6.00 ± 1.29 g/HIE while the rates of loss in the three soybean experiments were 4.39 ± 0.96 g/HIE, 3.70 ± 1.21 g/HIE and 2.12 ± 0.71 g/HIE. These three slopes were not statistically different (P > 0.05) and the pooled estimate of the rate of yield loss was 3.21 ± 0.55 g/HIE. The first soybean experiment also showed a split-line form of damage curve with a rate of yield loss of 26.27 ± 2.92 g/HIE beyond 8.0 HIE and a rapid decline to zero yield. In dry bean, H. armigera feeding reduced total and undamaged pod numbers by 4.10 ± 1.18 pods/HIE and 12.88 ± 1.57 pods/HIE respectively, while undamaged seed numbers were reduced by 35.64 ± 7.25 seeds/HIE. In soybean, total pod numbers were not affected by H. armigera infestation (out to 8.23 HIE in Experiment 1) but seed numbers (in Experiments 1 and 2) and the number of seeds/pod (in all experiments) were adversely affected. Seed size increased with increases in H. armigera density in two of the three soybean experiments, indicating plant compensatory responses to H. armigera feeding. Analysis of canopy pod profiles indicated that loss of pods occurred from the top of the plant downwards, but with an increase in pod numbers close to the ground at higher pest densities as the plant attempted to compensate for damage. Based on these results, the economic injury levels for H. armigera on dry bean and soybean are approximately 0.74 HIE and 2.31 HIE/m2, respectively (0.67 and 2.1 HIE/row-m for 91 cm rows).

A model for determining the optimal project life span and concession period of BOT projects

The concession agreement is the core feature of BOT projects, with the concession period being the most essential feature in determining the time span of the various rights, obligations and responsibilities of the government and concessionaire. Concession period design is therefore crucial for financial viability and determining the benefit/cost allocation between the host government and the concessionaire. However, while the concession period and project life span are essentially interdependent, most methods to date consider their determination as contiguous events that are determined exogenously. Moreover, these methods seldom consider the, often uncertain, social benefits and costs involved that are critical in defining, pricing and distributing benefits and costs between the various parties and evaluating potentially distributable cash flows. In this paper, we present the results of the first stage of a research project aimed at determining the optimal build-operate-transfer (BOT) project life span and concession period endogenously and interdependently by maximizing the combined benefits of stakeholders. Based on the estimation of the economic and social development involved, a negotiation space of the concession period interval is obtained, with its lower boundary creating the desired financial return for the private investors and its upper boundary ensuring the economic feasibility of the host government as well as the maximized welfare within the project life. The outcome of the new quantitative model is considered as a suitable basis for future field trials prior to implementation. The structure and details of the model are provided in the paper with Hong Kong tunnel project as a case study to demonstrate its detailed application. The basic contributions of the paper to the theory of construction procurement are that the project life span and concession period are determined jointly and the social benefits taken into account in the examination of project financial benefits. In practical terms, the model goes beyond the current practice of linear-process thinking and should enable engineering consultants to provide project information more rationally and accurately to BOT project bidders and increase the government's prospects of successfully entering into a contract with a concessionaire. This is expected to generate more negotiation space for the government and concessionaire in determining the major socioeconomic features of individual BOT contracts when negotiating the concession period. As a result, the use of the model should increase the total benefit to both parties.