Large-scale prediction of seagrass distribution: the case of Cymodocea nodosa (Mediterranean-Atlantic)

Understanding the factors that affect seagrass meadows encompassing their entire range of distribution is challenging yet important for their conservation. We model the environmental niche of Cymodocea nodosa using a combination of environmental variables and landscape metrics to examine factors defining its distribution and find suitable habitats for the species. The most relevant environmental variables defining the distribution of C. nodosa were sea surface temperature (SST) and salinity. We found suitable habitats at SST from 5.8 ºC to 26.4 ºC and salinity ranging from 17.5 to 39.3. Optimal values of mean winter wave height ranged between 1.2 m and 1.5 m, while waves higher than 2.5 m seemed to limit the presence of the species. The influence of nutrients and pH, despite having weight on the models, was not so clear in terms of ranges that confine the distribution of the species. Landscape metrics able to capture variation in the coastline enhanced significantly the accuracy of the models, despite the limitations caused by the scale of the study. By contrasting predictive approaches, we defined the variables affecting the distributional areas that seem unsuitable for C. nodosa as well as those suitable habitats not occupied by the species. These findings are encouraging for its use in future studies on climate-related marine range shifts and meadow restoration projects of these fragile ecosystems.

Understanding Uncertainties in Non-Linear Population Trajectories: A Bayesian Semi-Parametric Hierarchical Approach to Large-Scale Surveys of Coral Cover

Recently, attempts to improve decision making in species management have focussed on uncertainties associated with modelling temporal fluctuations in populations. Reducing model uncertainty is challenging; while larger samples improve estimation of species trajectories and reduce statistical errors, they typically amplify variability in observed trajectories. In particular, traditional modelling approaches aimed at estimating population trajectories usually do not account well for nonlinearities and uncertainties associated with multi-scale observations characteristic of large spatio-temporal surveys. We present a Bayesian semi-parametric hierarchical model for simultaneously quantifying uncertainties associated with model structure and parameters, and scale-specific variability over time. We estimate uncertainty across a four-tiered spatial hierarchy of coral cover from the Great Barrier Reef. Coral variability is well described; however, our results show that, in the absence of additional model specifications, conclusions regarding coral trajectories become highly uncertain when considering multiple reefs, suggesting that management should focus more at the scale of individual reefs. The approach presented facilitates the description and estimation of population trajectories and associated uncertainties when variability cannot be attributed to specific causes and origins. We argue that our model can unlock value contained in large-scale datasets, provide guidance for understanding sources of uncertainty, and support better informed decision making

Dynamic agent composition for large-scale agent-based models

PURPOSE: This paper describes dynamic agent composition, used to support the development of flexible and extensible large-scale agent-based models (ABMs). This approach was motivated by a need to extend and modify, with ease, an ABM with an underlying networked structure as more information becomes available. Flexibility was also sought after so that simulations are set up with ease, without the need to program. METHODS: The dynamic agent composition approach consists in having agents, whose implementation has been broken into atomic units, come together at runtime to form the complex system representation on which simulations are run. These components capture information at a fine level of detail and provide a vast range of combinations and options for a modeller to create ABMs. RESULTS: A description of the dynamic agent composition is given in this paper, as well as details about its implementation within MODAM (MODular Agent-based Model), a software framework which is applied to the planning of the electricity distribution network. Illustrations of the implementation of the dynamic agent composition are consequently given for that domain throughout the paper. It is however expected that this approach will be beneficial to other problem domains, especially those with a networked structure, such as water or gas networks. CONCLUSIONS: Dynamic agent composition has many advantages over the way agent-based models are traditionally built for the users, the developers, as well as for agent-based modelling as a scientific approach. Developers can extend the model without the need to access or modify previously written code; they can develop groups of entities independently and add them to those already defined to extend the model. Users can mix-and-match already implemented components to form large-scales ABMs, allowing them to quickly setup simulations and easily compare scenarios without the need to program. The dynamic agent composition provides a natural simulation space over which ABMs of networked structures are represented, facilitating their implementation; and verification and validation of models is facilitated by quickly setting up alternative simulations.

Linear programming for large-scale Markov decision problems

We consider the problem of controlling a Markov decision process (MDP) with a large state space, so as to minimize average cost. Since it is intractable to compete with the optimal policy for large scale problems, we pursue the more modest goal of competing with a low-dimensional family of policies. We use the dual linear programming formulation of the MDP average cost problem, in which the variable is a stationary distribution over state-action pairs, and we consider a neighborhood of a low-dimensional subset of the set of stationary distributions (defined in terms of state-action features) as the comparison class. We propose a technique based on stochastic convex optimization and give bounds that show that the performance of our algorithm approaches the best achievable by any policy in the comparison class. Most importantly, this result depends on the size of the comparison class, but not on the size of the state space. Preliminary experiments show the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm in a queuing application.

Mapping of large scale 158 mu m [CII] line emission: Orion A

We present the first results of an observational programme undertaken to map the fine structure line emission of singly ionized carbon ([ CII] 157 : 7409 mum) over extended regions using a Fabry Perot spectrometer newly installed at the focal plane of a 100 cm balloon- borne far- infrared telescope. This new combination of instruments has a velocity resolution of similar to 200 km s(-1) and an angular resolution of 1.'5. During the first flight, an area of 30' x 15' in Orion A was mapped. These observations extend over a larger area than previous observations, the map is fully sampled and the spectral scanning method used enables reliable estimation of the continuum emission at frequencies adjacent to the [ CII] line. The total [ CII] line luminosity, calculated by considering up to 20% of the maximum line intensity is 0.04% of the luminosity of the far- infrared continuum. We have compared the [ CII] intensity distribution with the velocity- integrated intensity distributions of (CO)-C-13(1- 0), CI(1- 0) and CO( 3- 2) from the literature. Comparison of the [ CII], [ CI] and the radio continuum intensity distributions indicates that the largescale [ CII] emission originates mainly from the neutral gas, except at the position of M 43, where no [ CI] emission corresponding to the [ CII] emission is seen. Substantial part of the [ CII] emission from here originates from the ionized gas. The observed line intensities and ratios have been analyzed using the PDR models by Kaufman et al. ( 1999) to derive the incident UV flux and volume density at a few selected positions. The models reproduce the observations reasonably well at most positions excepting the [ CII] peak ( which coincides with the position of theta(1) Ori C). Possible reason for the failure could be the simplifying assumption of a homogeneous plane parallel slab in place of a more complicated geometry.

Regionalization of precipitation in data sparse areas using large scale atmospheric variables - A fuzzy clustering approach

Delineation of homogeneous precipitation regions (regionalization) is necessary for investigating frequency and spatial distribution of meteorological droughts. The conventional methods of regionalization use statistics of precipitation as attributes to establish homogeneous regions. Therefore they cannot be used to form regions in ungauged areas, and they may not be useful to form meaningful regions in areas having sparse rain gauge density. Further, validation of the regions for homogeneity in precipitation is not possible, since the use of the precipitation statistics to form regions and subsequently to test the regional homogeneity is not appropriate. To alleviate this problem, an approach based on fuzzy cluster analysis is presented. It allows delineation of homogeneous precipitation regions in data sparse areas using large scale atmospheric variables (LSAV), which influence precipitation in the study area, as attributes. The LSAV, location parameters (latitude, longitude and altitude) and seasonality of precipitation are suggested as features for regionalization. The approach allows independent validation of the identified regions for homogeneity using statistics computed from the observed precipitation. Further it has the ability to form regions even in ungauged areas, owing to the use of attributes that can be reliably estimated even when no at-site precipitation data are available. The approach was applied to delineate homogeneous annual rainfall regions in India, and its effectiveness is illustrated by comparing the results with those obtained using rainfall statistics, regionalization based on hard cluster analysis, and meteorological sub-divisions in India. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Robust formulations for clustering-based large-scale classification

Chebyshev-inequality-based convex relaxations of Chance-Constrained Programs (CCPs) are shown to be useful for learning classifiers on massive datasets. In particular, an algorithm that integrates efficient clustering procedures and CCP approaches for computing classifiers on large datasets is proposed. The key idea is to identify high density regions or clusters from individual class conditional densities and then use a CCP formulation to learn a classifier on the clusters. The CCP formulation ensures that most of the data points in a cluster are correctly classified by employing a Chebyshev-inequality-based convex relaxation. This relaxation is heavily dependent on the second-order statistics. However, this formulation and in general such relaxations that depend on the second-order moments are susceptible to moment estimation errors. One of the contributions of the paper is to propose several formulations that are robust to such errors. In particular a generic way of making such formulations robust to moment estimation errors is illustrated using two novel confidence sets. An important contribution is to show that when either of the confidence sets is employed, for the special case of a spherical normal distribution of clusters, the robust variant of the formulation can be posed as a second-order cone program. Empirical results show that the robust formulations achieve accuracies comparable to that with true moments, even when moment estimates are erroneous. Results also illustrate the benefits of employing the proposed methodology for robust classification of large-scale datasets.

Littoral vegetation of Lake Tohopekaliga: community descriptions prior to a large-scale fisheries habitat-enhancement project

An extreme dry-down and muck-removal project was conducted at Lake Tohopekaliga, Florida, in 2003-2004, to remove dense vegetation from inshore areas and improve habitat degraded by stabilized water levels. Vegetation was monitored from June 2002 to December 2003, to describe the pre-existing communities in terms of composition and distribution along the environmental gradients. Three study areas (Treatment-Selection Sites) were designed to test the efficacy of different treatments in enhancing inshore habitat, and five other study areas (Whole-Lake Monitoring Sites) were designed to monitor the responses of the emergent littoral vegetation as a whole. Five general community types were identified within the study areas by recording aboveground biomasses and stem densities of each species. These communities were distributed along water and soils gradients, with water depth and bulk density explaining most of the variation. The shallowest depths were dominated by a combination of Eleocharis spp., Luziola fluitans, and Panicum repens; while the deeper areas had communities of Nymphaea odorata and Nuphar luteum; Typha spp.; or Paspalidium geminatum and Hydrilla verticillata. Mineralized soils were common in both the shallow and deep-water communities, while the intermediate depths had high percentages of organic material in the soil. These intermediate depths (occurring just above and just below low pool stage) were dominated by Pontederia cordata, the main species targeted by the habitat enhancement project. This emergent community occurred in nearly monocultural bands around the lake (from roughly 60–120 cm in depth at high pool stage) often having more diverse floating mats along the deep-water edge. The organic barrier these mats create is believed to impede access of sport fish to shallow-water spawning areas, while the overall low diversity of the community is evidence of its competitive nature in stabilized waters. With continued monitoring of these study areas long-term effects of the restoration project can be assessed and predictive models may be created to determine the efficacy and legitimacy of such projects in the future.

Generating complex connectivity structures for large-scale neural models

Martin Huelse: Generating complex connectivity structures for large-scale neural models. In: V. Kurkova, R. Neruda, and J. Koutnik (Eds.): ICANN 2008, Part II, LNCS 5164, pp. 849?858, 2008. Sponsorship: EPSRC

Large-scale density functional calculations of the surface properties of the Wigner crystal

The surface properties of the jellium model have been investigated by large supercell computations in the density functional theory-local spin-density (DFT-LSD) approach for planar slabs with up to 1000 electrons. A wide interval of densities has been explored, extending into the stability range of the Wigner crystal. Most computations have been carried out on nominally paramagnetic samples with an equal number of spin-up and spin-down electrons. The results show that within DFT-LSD spontaneous spin polarization and charge localization start nearly simultaneously at the surface for r(s) similar to 20, then, with decreasing density, they progress toward the center of the slab. Electrons are fully localized and spin polarized at r(s) = 30. At this density the charge distribution is the superposition of disjoint charge blobs, each corresponding to one electron. The distribution of blobs displays both regularities and disorder, the first being represented by well-defined planes and simple in-plane geometries, and the latter by a variety of surface defects. The surface energy, surface dipole, electric polarisability, and magnetization pattern have been determined as a function of density. All these quantities display characteristic anomalies at the density of the localization transition. The analysis of the low-frequency electric conductivity shows that in the fluid paramagnetic regime the in-plane current preferentially flows in the central region of the slab and the two spin channels are equally conducting. In the charge localized, spin-polarized regime, conductivity is primarily a surface effect, and an apparent asymmetry is observed in the two spin currents.

The broad-scale distribution of five jellyfish species across a temperate coastal environment

Jellyfish (medusae) are sometimes the most noticeable and abundant members of coastal planktonic communities, yet ironically, this high conspicuousness is not reflected in our overall understanding of their spatial distributions across large expanses of water. Here, we set out to elucidate the spatial (and temporal) patterns for five jellyfish species (Phylum Cnidaria, Orders Rhizostomeae and Semaeostomeae) across the Irish & Celtic Seas, an extensive shelf-sea area at Europe's northwesterly margin encompassing several thousand square kilometers. Data were gathered using two independent methods: (1) surface-counts of jellyfish from ships of opportunity, and (2) regular shoreline surveys for stranding events over three consecutive years. Jellyfish species displayed distinct species-specific distributions, with an apparent segregation of some species. Furthermore, a different species composition was noticeable between the northern and southern parts of the study area. Most importantly, our data suggests that jellyfish distributions broadly reflect the major hydrographic regimes (and associated physical discontinuities) of the study area, with mixed water masses possibly acting as a trophic barrier or non-favourable environment for the successful growth and reproduction of jellyfish species.

Received signal strength in large-scale wireless relay sensor network: a stochastic ray approach

The authors consider a point percolation lattice representation of a large-scale wireless relay sensor network (WRSN) deployed in a cluttered environment. Each relay sensor corresponds to a grid point in the random lattice and the signal sent by the source is modelled as an ensemble of photons that spread in the space, which may 'hit' other sensors and are 'scattered' around. At each hit, the relay node forwards the received signal to its nearest neighbour through direction-selective relaying. The authors first derive the distribution that a relay path reaches a prescribed location after undergoing certain number of hops. Subsequently, a closed-form expression of the average received signal strength (RSS) at the destination can be computed as the summation of all signal echoes' energy. Finally, the effect of the anomalous diffusion exponent ß on the mean RSS in a WRSN is studied, for which it is found that the RSS scaling exponent e is given by (3ß-1)/ß. The results would provide useful insight into the design and deployment of large-scale WRSNs in future. © 2011 The Institution of Engineering and Technology.

Large‐scale wind deployment, social acceptance

The public is typically in agreement with the renewable energy targets established in many national states and generally supports the idea of increased reliance on wind energy. Nevertheless, many specific wind power projects face significant local opposition. A key question for the wind energy sector is, therefore, how to better engage local people to foster support for specific projects. IEA Wind Task 28 on Social Acceptance of Wind Energy Projects aims to facilitate wind energy development by reviewing current practices, emerging ideas, and exchanging successful practices among the participating countries. It also aims to disseminate the insights of leading research to a nontechnical audience, including project developers, local planning officials, and the general public. The interdisciplinary approach adopted by Task 28 enables an in-depth understanding of the nature of opposition to wind projects and a critical assessment of emerging strategies for social acceptance. Task 28 has analyzed a range of key issues related to social acceptance of wind energy, including the impacts on landscapes and ecosystems, on standard of living and well-being, the implementation of energy policy and spatial planning, the distribution of costs and benefits, and procedural justice. It is clear that although wind energy has many benefits; however, specific projects do impact local communities. As such the concerns of the affected people have to be taken seriously. Moreover, as opposition is rarely without foundation, it is in the interests of developers and advocates to engage local people and to improve projects for the benefit of all.