How useful is expert opinion for predicting the distribution of a species within and beyond the region of expertise? A case study using brush-tailed rock-wallabiesPetrogale penicillata

1. Species' distribution modelling relies on adequate data sets to build reliable statistical models with high predictive ability. However, the money spent collecting empirical data might be better spent on management. A less expensive source of species' distribution information is expert opinion. This study evaluates expert knowledge and its source. In particular, we determine whether models built on expert knowledge apply over multiple regions or only within the region where the knowledge was derived. 2. The case study focuses on the distribution of the brush-tailed rock-wallaby Petrogale penicillata in eastern Australia. We brought together from two biogeographically different regions substantial and well-designed field data and knowledge from nine experts. We used a novel elicitation tool within a geographical information system to systematically collect expert opinions. The tool utilized an indirect approach to elicitation, asking experts simpler questions about observable rather than abstract quantities, with measures in place to identify uncertainty and offer feedback. Bayesian analysis was used to combine field data and expert knowledge in each region to determine: (i) how expert opinion affected models based on field data and (ii) how similar expert-informed models were within regions and across regions. 3. The elicitation tool effectively captured the experts' opinions and their uncertainties. Experts were comfortable with the map-based elicitation approach used, especially with graphical feedback. Experts tended to predict lower values of species occurrence compared with field data. 4. Across experts, consensus on effect sizes occurred for several habitat variables. Expert opinion generally influenced predictions from field data. However, south-east Queensland and north-east New South Wales experts had different opinions on the influence of elevation and geology, with these differences attributable to geological differences between these regions. 5. Synthesis and applications. When formulated as priors in Bayesian analysis, expert opinion is useful for modifying or strengthening patterns exhibited by empirical data sets that are limited in size or scope. Nevertheless, the ability of an expert to extrapolate beyond their region of knowledge may be poor. Hence there is significant merit in obtaining information from local experts when compiling species' distribution models across several regions.

Valuing brand equity of a geographic region

There is much anecdotal evidence and academic argument that the location of a business influences its value. That is, some businesses appear to be worth more than others because of their location. This is particularly so in the tourism industry. Within the domain of the destination literature, many factors can be posited on why business valuation varies, ranging from access to markets, availability of labor, climate, and surrounding services. Given that business value is such a fundamental principle that underpins the viability of the tourist industry through its relationship with pricing, business acquisition, and investment, it is surprising that scant research has sought to quantify the relative premium associated with geographic locations. This study proposes a novel way in which to estimate geographic brand premium. Specifically, the approach translates valuation techniques from financial economics to quantify the incremental value derived from businesses operating in a particular geographic region, and produces a geographic brand premium. The article applies the technique to a well-known tourist destination in Australia, and the results are consistent with a positive value of brand equity in the key industries and are of a plausible order of magnitude. The article carries strong implications for business and tourism operators in terms of valuation, pricing, and investment, but more generally, the approach is potentially useful to local authorities and business associations when deciding how much resource and effort should be devoted to brand protection.

Benefit analysis of airborne GPS occultation approach : a case study for the Australian region

This paper aims to present a preliminary benefit analysis for airborne GPS occultation technique for the Australian region. The simulation studies are based on current domestic commercial flights between major Australian airports. With the knowledge of GPS satellite ephemeris data, occultation events for for any particular flight can be determined. Preliminary analysis shows a high resolution occultation observations can be achieved with this approach, for instance, about 15 occultation events for a Perth-to-Sydney flight. The simulation result agrees to the results published by other researchers for a different region. Of course, occultation observation during off-peak hours might be affected due to the limited flight activities. --------- High resolution occultation observations obtainable from airborne GPS occultation system provides an opportunity to improve the current global numerical weather prediction (NWP) models and ultimately improves the accuracy in weather forecasting. More intensive research efforts and experimental demonstrations are required in order to demonstrate the technical feasibility of the airborne GPS technology.

Cities in the airports 'shadow' : underlying interests and discretionary power in airport-region development

The previously distinct boundary between airports and their cities has become increasingly blurred as new interests and actors are identified as important stakeholders in the decision making process. As a consequence airport entities are more than ever seeking an integrated existence with their surrounding regions. While current planning strategies provide insights on how to improve and leverage land use planning in and around airports, emerging challenges for implementing and protecting these planning ideals stem from the governance shadows of development decisions. The thesis of this paper is that improving the identification, articulation and consideration of city and airport interests in the development approval process (between planning and implementation) can help avoid outcomes that hinder the ability of cities and their airports to meet their separate/mutual long-term objectives. By applying a network governance perspective to the pilot case study of Brisbane, analysis of overlapping and competing actor interests show how different governance arrangements facilitate (or impede) decision making that protects sustainable ‘airport region’ development. ---------- Contributions are made to airport and city development decision makers through the identification and analysis of effective and ineffective decision making pathways, and to governance literature by way of forwarding empirically derived frameworks for showing how actors protect their interests in the ‘crowded decision making domain’ of airport region development. This work was carried out through the Airport Metropolis Research Project under the Australian Research Council’s Linkage Projects funding scheme (LP0775225).

The ethics of regional water planning : planning and management of water resources in a growth region

Abstract Providing water infrastructure in times of accelerating climate change presents interesting new problems. Expanding demands must be met or managed in contexts of increasingly constrained sources of supply, raising ethical questions of equity and participation. Loss of agricultural land and natural habitats, the coastal impacts of desalination plants and concerns over re-use of waste water must be weighed with demand management issues of water rationing, pricing mechanisms and inducing behaviour change. This case study examines how these factors impact on infrastructure planning in South East Queensland, Australia: a region with one of the developed world’s most rapidly growing populations, which has recently experienced the most severe drought in its recorded history. Proposals to match forecast demands and potential supplies for water over a 20 year period are reviewed by applying ethical principles to evaluate practical plans to meet the water needs of the region’s activities and settlements.