Multilevel multitrait-multimethod model: application to the measurement of egocentered social networks

Our goal in this paper is to assess reliability and validity of egocentered network data using multilevel analysis (Muthen, 1989, Hox, 1993) under the multitrait-multimethod approach. The confirmatory factor analysis model for multitrait-multimethod data (Werts & Linn, 1970; Andrews, 1984) is used for our analyses. In this study we reanalyse a part of data of another study (Kogovšek et al., 2002) done on a representative sample of the inhabitants of Ljubljana. The traits used in our article are the name interpreters. We consider egocentered network data as hierarchical; therefore a multilevel analysis is required. We use Muthen's partial maximum likelihood approach, called pseudobalanced solution (Muthen, 1989, 1990, 1994) which produces estimations close to maximum likelihood for large ego sample sizes (Hox & Mass, 2001). Several analyses will be done in order to compare this multilevel analysis to classic methods of analysis such as the ones made in Kogovšek et al. (2002), who analysed the data only at group (ego) level considering averages of all alters within the ego. We show that some of the results obtained by classic methods are biased and that multilevel analysis provides more detailed information that much enriches the interpretation of reliability and validity of hierarchical data. Within and between-ego reliabilities and validities and other related quality measures are defined, computed and interpreted

Revisiting youden’s index as a useful measure of the misclassification error in meta-analysis of diagnostic studies

The paper considers meta-analysis of diagnostic studies that use a continuous score for classification of study participants into healthy or diseased groups. Classification is often done on the basis of a threshold or cut-off value, which might vary between studies. Consequently, conventional meta-analysis methodology focusing solely on separate analysis of sensitivity and specificity might be confounded by a potentially unknown variation of the cut-off value. To cope with this phenomena it is suggested to use, instead, an overall estimate of the misclassification error previously suggested and used as Youden’s index and; furthermore, it is argued that this index is less prone to between-study variation of cut-off values. A simple Mantel–Haenszel estimator as a summary measure of the overall misclassification error is suggested, which adjusts for a potential study effect. The measure of the misclassification error based on Youden’s index is advantageous in that it easily allows an extension to a likelihood approach, which is then able to cope with unobserved heterogeneity via a nonparametric mixture model. All methods are illustrated at hand of an example on a diagnostic meta-analysis on duplex doppler ultrasound, with angiography as the standard for stroke prevention.

Revisiting Youden's index as a useful measure of the misclassification error in meta-analysis of diagnostic studies

The paper considers meta-analysis of diagnostic studies that use a continuous Score for classification of study participants into healthy, or diseased groups. Classification is often done on the basis of a threshold or cut-off value, which might vary between Studies. Consequently, conventional meta-analysis methodology focusing solely on separate analysis of sensitivity and specificity might he confounded by a potentially unknown variation of the cut-off Value. To cope with this phenomena it is suggested to use, instead an overall estimate of the misclassification error previously suggested and used as Youden's index and; furthermore, it is argued that this index is less prone to between-study variation of cut-off values. A simple Mantel-Haenszel estimator as a summary measure of the overall misclassification error is suggested, which adjusts for a potential study effect. The measure of the misclassification error based on Youden's index is advantageous in that it easily allows an extension to a likelihood approach, which is then able to cope with unobserved heterogeneity via a nonparametric mixture model. All methods are illustrated at hand of an example on a diagnostic meta-analysis on duplex doppler ultrasound, with angiography as the standard for stroke prevention.

Evolutionary history of vegetative reproduction in Porpidia s. l. (lichen-forming ascomycota)

The evolutionary history of gains and losses of vegetative reproductive propagules (soredia) in Porpidia s.l., a group of lichen-forming ascomycetes, was clarified using Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approaches to monophyly tests and a combined MCMC and maximum likelihood approach to ancestral character state reconstructions. The MCMC framework provided confidence estimates for the reconstructions of relationships and ancestral character states, which formed the basis for tests of evolutionary hypotheses. Monophyly tests rejected all hypotheses that predicted any clustering of reproductive modes in extant taxa. In addition, a nearest-neighbor statistic could not reject the hypothesis that the vegetative reproductive mode is randomly distributed throughout the group. These results show that transitions between presence and absence of the vegetative reproductive mode within Porpidia s.l. occurred several times and independently of each other. Likelihood reconstructions of ancestral character states at selected nodes suggest that - contrary to previous thought - the ancestor to Porpidia s.l. already possessed the vegetative reproductive mode. Furthermore, transition rates are reconstructed asymmetrically with the vegetative reproductive mode being gained at a much lower rate than it is lost. A cautious note has to be added, because a simulation study showed that the ancestral character state reconstructions were highly dependent on taxon sampling. However, our central conclusions, particularly the higher rate of change from vegetative reproductive mode present to absent than vice versa within Porpidia s.l., were found to be broadly independent of taxon sampling. [Ancestral character state reconstructions; Ascomycota, Bayesian inference; hypothesis testing; likelihood; MCMC; Porpidia; reproductive systems]

The genus Coleodactylus (Sphaerodactylinae, Gekkota) revisited: A molecular phylogenetic perspective

Nucleotide sequence data from a mitochondrial gene (16S) and two nuclear genes (c-mos, RAG-1) were used to evaluate the monophyly of the genus Coleodactylus, to provide the first phylogenetic hypothesis of relationships among its species in a cladistic framework, and to estimate the relative timing, of species divergences. Maximum Parsimony, Maximum Likelihood and Bayesian analyses of the combined data sets retrieved Coleodactylus as a monophyletic genus, although weakly Supported. Species were recovered as two genetically and morphological distinct clades, with C. amazonicus populations forming the sister taxon to the meridionalis group (C. brachystoma, C. meridionalis, C. natalensis, and C. septentrionalis). Within this group, C. septentrionalis was placed as the sister taxon to a clade comprising the rest of the species, C. meridionalis was recovered as the sister species to C. brachystoma, and C natalensis was found nested within C. meridionalis. Divergence time estimates based on penalized likelihood and Bayesian dating methods do not Support the previous hypothesis based on the Quaternary rain forest fragmentation model proposed to explain the diversification of the genus. The basal cladogenic event between major lineages of Coleodactylus was estimated to have occurred in the late Cretaceous (72.6 +/- 1.77 Mya), approximately at the same point in time than the other genera of Sphaerodactylinae diverged from each other. Within the meridionalis group, the split between C. septentrionalis and C. brachystoma + C. meridionalis was placed in the Eocene (46.4 +/- 4.22 Mya), and the divergence between C. brachystoma and C. meridionalis was estimated to have occurred in the Oligocene (29.3 +/- 4.33 Mya). Most intraspecific cladogenesis occurred through Miocene to Pliocene, and only for two conspecific samples and for C. natalensis could a Quaternary differentiation be assumed (1.9 +/- 1.3 Mya). (C) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Infant mortality model for lifetime data

In this paper we introduce a parametric model for handling lifetime data where an early lifetime can be related to the infant-mortality failure or to the wear processes but we do not know which risk is responsible for the failure. The maximum likelihood approach and the sampling-based approach are used to get the inferences of interest. Some special cases of the proposed model are studied via Monte Carlo methods for size and power of hypothesis tests. To illustrate the proposed methodology, we introduce an example consisting of a real data set.

The complementary exponential geometric distribution: Model, properties, and a comparison with its counterpart

In this paper, we proposed a new two-parameter lifetime distribution with increasing failure rate, the complementary exponential geometric distribution, which is complementary to the exponential geometric model proposed by Adamidis and Loukas (1998). The new distribution arises on a latent complementary risks scenario, in which the lifetime associated with a particular risk is not observable; rather, we observe only the maximum lifetime value among all risks. The properties of the proposed distribution are discussed, including a formal proof of its probability density function and explicit algebraic formulas for its reliability and failure rate functions, moments, including the mean and variance, variation coefficient, and modal value. The parameter estimation is based on the usual maximum likelihood approach. We report the results of a misspecification simulation study performed in order to assess the extent of misspecification errors when testing the exponential geometric distribution against our complementary one in the presence of different sample size and censoring percentage. The methodology is illustrated on four real datasets; we also make a comparison between both modeling approaches. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Inference and local influence assessment in skew-normal null intercept measurement error model

In this article, we discuss inferential aspects of the measurement error regression models with null intercepts when the unknown quantity x (latent variable) follows a skew normal distribution. We examine first the maximum-likelihood approach to estimation via the EM algorithm by exploring statistical properties of the model considered. Then, the marginal likelihood, the score function and the observed information matrix of the observed quantities are presented allowing direct inference implementation. In order to discuss some diagnostics techniques in this type of models, we derive the appropriate matrices to assessing the local influence on the parameter estimates under different perturbation schemes. The results and methods developed in this paper are illustrated considering part of a real data set used by Hadgu and Koch [1999, Application of generalized estimating equations to a dental randomized clinical trial. Journal of Biopharmaceutical Statistics, 9, 161-178].

Estudo das precipitações máximas anuais em Presidente Prudente

Considerando a importância sócio-econômica da região de Presidente Prudente, este estudo teve como objetivo estimar a precipitação pluvial máxima esperada para diferentes níveis de probabilidade e verificar o grau de ajuste dos dados ao modelo Gumbel, com as estimativas dos parâmetros obtidas pelo método de máxima verossimilhança. Pelos resultados, o teste de Kolmogorov-Sminorv (K-S) mostrou que a distribuição Gumbel testada se ajustou com p-valor maior que 0.28 para todos os períodos de tempo considerados, comprovando que a distribuição Gumbel apresenta um bom ajustamento aos dados observados para representar as precipitações pluviais máximas. As estimativas de precipitação obtidas pelo método de máxima verossimilhança são consistentes, conseguindo reproduzir com bastante fidelidade o regime de chuvas da região de Presidente Prudente. Assim, o conhecimento da distribuição da precipitação pluvial máxima mensal e das estimativas das precipitações diárias máximas esperadas, possibilita um planejamento estratégico melhor, minimizando assim o risco de ocorrência de perdas econômicas para essa região.

A aplicação da distribuição exponencial geométrica estendida para modelagem de dados pluviométricos

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

A new long-term lifetime distribution induced by a latent complementary risk framework

In this paper, we proposed a new three-parameter long-term lifetime distribution induced by a latent complementary risk framework with decreasing, increasing and unimodal hazard function, the long-term complementary exponential geometric distribution. The new distribution arises from latent competing risk scenarios, where the lifetime associated scenario, with a particular risk, is not observable, rather we observe only the maximum lifetime value among all risks, and the presence of long-term survival. The properties of the proposed distribution are discussed, including its probability density function and explicit algebraic formulas for its reliability, hazard and quantile functions and order statistics. The parameter estimation is based on the usual maximum-likelihood approach. A simulation study assesses the performance of the estimation procedure. We compare the new distribution with its particular cases, as well as with the long-term Weibull distribution on three real data sets, observing its potential and competitiveness in comparison with some usual long-term lifetime distributions.

Half tetrad analysis in alfalfa using multiple restriction fragment length polymorphism markers.

A maximum likelihood approach of half tetrad analysis (HTA) based on multiple restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) markers was developed. This procedure estimates the relative frequencies of 2n gametes produced by mechanisms genetically equivalent to first division restitution (FDR) or second division restitution and simultaneously locates the centromere within a linkage group of RFLP marker loci. The method was applied to the diploid alfalfa clone PG-F9 (2n = 2x = 16) previously selected because of its high frequency of 2n egg production. HTA was based on four RFLP loci for which PG-F9 was heterozygous with codominant alleles that were absent in the tetraploid tester. Models including three linked and one unlinked RFLP loci were developed and tested. Results of the HTA showed that PG-F9 produced 6% FDR and 94% second division restitution 2n eggs. Information from a marker locus belonging to one linkage group was used to more precisely locate the centromere on a different linkage group. HTA, together with previous cytological analysis, indicated that in PG-F9, FDR 2n eggs are likely produced by diplospory, a mechanism common among apomictic species. The occurrence of FDR 2n eggs in plant species and their importance for crop evolution and breeding is discussed together with the potential applicability of multilocus HTA in the study of reproductive mutants.

Congruence of fatty acid methyl ester profiles and morphological characters of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi in Gigasporaceae.

Arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi (Order Glomales, Class Zygomycetes) are a diverse group of soil fungi that form mutualistic associations with the roots of most species of higher plants. Despite intensive study over the past 25 years, the phylogenetic relationships among AM fungi, and thus many details of evolution of the symbiosis, remain unclear. Cladistic analysis was performed on fatty acid methyl ester (FAME) profiles of 15 species in Gigaspora and Scutellospora (family Gigasporaceae) by using a restricted maximum likelihood approach of continuous character data. Results were compared to a parsimony analysis of spore morphological characters of the same species. Only one tree was generated from each character set. Morphological and developmental data suggest that species with the simplest spore types are ancestral whereas those with complicated inner wall structures are derived. Spores of those species having a complex wall structure pass through stages of development identical to the mature stages of simpler spores, suggesting a pattern of classical Haeckelian recapitulation in evolution of spore characters. Analysis of FAME profiles supported this hypothesis when Glomus leptotichum was used as the outgroup. However, when Glomus etunicatum was chosen as the outgroup, the polarity of the entire tree was reversed. Our results suggest that FAME profiles contain useful information and provide independent criteria for generating phylogenetic hypotheses in AM fungi. The maximum likelihood approach to analyzing FAME profiles also may prove useful for many other groups of organisms in which profiles are empirically shown to be stable and heritable.

Maintenance of pre-mRNA secondary structure by epistatic selection.

Linkage disequilibrium between polymorphisms in a natural population may result from various evolutionary forces, including random genetic drift due to sampling of gametes during reproduction, restricted migration between subpopulations in a subdivided population, or epistatic selection. In this report, we present evidence that the majority of significant linkage disequilibria observed in introns of the alcohol dehydrogenase locus (Adh) of Drosophila pseudoobscura are due to epistatic selection maintaining secondary structure of precursor mRNA (pre-mRNA). Based on phylogenetic-comparative analysis and a likelihood approach, we propose secondary structure models of Adh pre-mRNA for the regions of the adult intron and intron 2 where clustering of linkage disequilibria has been observed. Furthermore, we applied the likelihood ratio test to the phylogenetically predicted secondary structure in intron 1. In contrast to the other two structures, polymorphisms associated with the more conserved stem-loop structure of intron 1 are in low frequency, and linkage disequilibria have not been observed. These findings are qualitatively consistent with a model of compensatory fitness interactions. This model assumes that mutations disrupting pairing in a secondary structural element are individually deleterious if they destabilize a functionally important structure; a second "compensatory" mutation, however, may restabilize the structure and restore fitness.

Pattern-based phylogenetic distance estimation and tree reconstruction

We have developed an alignment-free method that calculates phylogenetic distances using a maximum-likelihood approach for a model of sequence change on patterns that are discovered in unaligned sequences. To evaluate the phylogenetic accuracy of our method, and to conduct a comprehensive comparison of existing alignment-free methods (freely available as Python package decaf+py at http://www.bioinformatics.org.au), we have created a data set of reference trees covering a wide range of phylogenetic distances. Amino acid sequences were evolved along the trees and input to the tested methods; from their calculated distances we infered trees whose topologies we compared to the reference trees. We find our pattern-based method statistically superior to all other tested alignment-free methods. We also demonstrate the general advantage of alignment-free methods over an approach based on automated alignments when sequences violate the assumption of collinearity. Similarly, we compare methods on empirical data from an existing alignment benchmark set that we used to derive reference distances and trees. Our pattern-based approach yields distances that show a linear relationship to reference distances over a substantially longer range than other alignment-free methods. The pattern-based approach outperforms alignment-free methods and its phylogenetic accuracy is statistically indistinguishable from alignment-based distances.