Investigation and prediction of sea level variations in the northern coasts of Persian Gulf using artificial neural network

Sea- level variations have a significant impact on coastal areas. Prediction of sea level variations expected from the pre most critical information needs associated with the sea environment. For this, various methods exist. In this study, on the northern coast of the Persian Gulf have been studied relation to the effectiveness of parameters such as pressure, temperature and wind speed on sea leve and associated with global parameters such as the North Atlantic Oscillation index and NAO index and present statistic models for prediction of sea level. In the next step by using artificial neural network predict sea level for first in this region. Then compared results of the models. Prediction using statistical models estimated in terms correlation coefficient R = 0.84 and root mean square error (RMS) 21.9 cm for the Bushehr station, and R = 0.85 and root mean square error (RMS) 48.4 cm for Rajai station, While neural network used to have 4 layers and each middle layer six neurons is best for prediction and produces the results reliably in terms of correlation coefficient with R = 0.90126 and the root mean square error (RMS) 13.7 cm for the Bushehr station, and R = 0.93916 and the root mean square error (RMS) 22.6 cm for Rajai station. Therefore, the proposed methodology could be successfully used in the study area.

The seasonal variations of sea level due to density variations in the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman

From the distribution of oceanographic data (temperature and salinity) in both Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman, the steric components (thermal, haline and steric heights) are calculated for the upper 50m layer during different seasons. The analysis reveals relevant evidence, that temperature variations (thermal component) play a role in the fluctuations of sea level within the investigated area. The salinity variations (haline component) is only significant near the entrance. The sea level variations due to density (steric component) is low during winter and spring and high during summer and autumn. The steric height is always lower in the northern and central regions of Arabian Gulf and higher in eastern region of Arabian Gulf and in the Gulf of Oman, i.e. the surface water must flow from the Gulf of Oman to the Arabian Gulf. The steric sea level gradient around the Strait of Hormuz are 0.04 cm/km in winter, 0.04 cm/km in spring, and 0.025 cm/km in summer and 0.014 cm/km in autumn.

Recent lake-level and outflow variations at Lake Viljandi, Estonia: validation of a coupled lake-catchment modelling scheme for climate change studies

Changes in the depth of Lake Viljandi between 1940 and 1990 were simulated using a lake water and energy-balance model driven by standard monthly weather data. Catchment runoff was simulated using a one-dimensional hydrological model, with a two-layer soil, a single-layer snowpack, a simple representation of vegetation cover and similarly modest input requirements. Outflow was modelled as a function of lake level. The simulated record of lake level and outflow matched observations of lake-level variations (r = 0.78) and streamflow (r = 0.87) well. The ability of the model to capture both intra- and inter-annual variations in the behaviour of a specific lake, despite the relatively simple input requirements, makes it extremely suitable for investigations of the impacts of climate change on lake water balance.

Spatial and temporal variations of the seasonal sea level cycle in the northwest Pacific

The seasonal sea level variations observed from tide gauges over 1900-2013 and gridded satellite altimeter product AVISO over 1993-2013 in the northwest Pacific have been explored. The seasonal cycle is able to explain 60-90% of monthly sea level variance in the marginal seas, while it explains less than 20% of variance in the eddy-rich regions. The maximum annual and semi-annual sea level cycles (30cm and 6cm) are observed in the north of the East China Sea and the west of the South China Sea respectively. AVISO was found to underestimate the annual amplitude by 25% compared to tide gauge estimates along the coasts of China and Russia. The forcing for the seasonal sea level cycle was identified. The atmospheric pressure and the steric height produce 8-12cm of the annual cycle in the middle continental shelf and in the Kuroshio Current regions separately. The removal of the two attributors from total sea level permits to identify the sea level residuals that still show significant seasonality in the marginal seas. Both nearby wind stress and surface currents can explain well the long-term variability of the seasonal sea level cycle in the marginal seas and the tropics because of their influence on the sea level residuals. Interestingly, the surface currents are a better descriptor in the areas where the ocean currents are known to be strong. Here, they explain 50-90% of inter-annual variability due to the strong links between the steric height and the large-scale ocean currents.

On sea level change in the North Sea influenced by the North Atlantic Oscillation: local and remote steric effects

In this study, contributions of both local steric and remote baroclinic effects (i.e., steric variations external to the region of interest) to the inter-annual variability of winter sea level in the North Sea, with respect to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), for the period of 1953–2010 are investigated. On inter-annual time scales in this period, the NAO is significantly correlated to sea level variations in the North Sea only in the winter months (December–March), while its correlation to sea temperature over much of the North Sea is only significant in January and February. The discrepancy in sea level between observations and barotropic tide and surge models forced by tides and local atmospheric forcing, i.e., local atmospheric pressure effects and winds, in the present study are found to be consistent with previous studies. In the North Sea, local thermosteric effects caused by thermal expansion play a minor role on winter-mean NAO related sea level variability compared with atmospheric forcing. This is particularly true in the southeastern North Sea where water depths are mostly less than 25 m. Our calculations demonstrate that the discrepancy can be mostly explained by remote baroclinic effects, which appear as water mass exchanges on the continental shelf and are therefore only apparent in ocean bottom pressure. In the North Sea, NAO related sea level variations seem to be a hybrid of barotropic and baroclinic processes. Hence, they can only be adequately modelled with three-dimensional baroclinic ocean models that include contributions of baroclinic effects and large-scale atmospheric forcing external to the region of interest.

Late Holocene sea-level fall and turn-off of reef flat carbonate production: Rethinking bucket fill and coral reef growth models

Relative sea-level rise has been a major factor driving the evolution of reef systems during the Holocene. Most models of reef evolution suggest that reefs preferentially grow vertically during rising sea level then laterally from windward to leeward, once the reef flat reaches sea level. Continuous lagoonal sedimentation ("bucket fill") and sand apron progradation eventually lead to reef systems with totally filled lagoons. Lagoonal infilling of One Tree Reef (southern Great Barrier Reef) through sand apron accretion was examined in the context of late Holocene relative sea-level change. This analysis was conducted using sedimentological and digital terrain data supported by 50 radiocarbon ages from fossil microatolls, buried patch reefs, foraminifera and shells in sediment cores, and recalibrated previously published radiocarbon ages. This data set challenges the conceptual model of geologically continuous sediment infill during the Holocene through sand apron accretion. Rapid sand apron accretion occurred between 6000 and 3000 calibrated yr before present B.P. (cal. yr B.P.); followed by only small amounts of sedimentation between 3000 cal. yr B.P. and present, with no significant sand apron accretion in the past 2 k.y. This hiatus in sediment infill coincides with a sea-level fall of similar to 1-1.3 m during the late Holocene (ca. 2000 cal. yr B.P.), which would have caused the turn-off of highly productive live coral growth on the reef flats currently dominated by less productive rubble and algal flats, resulting in a reduced sediment input to back-reef environments and the cessation in sand apron accretion. Given that relative sea-level variations of similar to 1 m were common throughout the Holocene, we suggest that this mode of sand apron development and carbonate production is applicable to most reef systems.

Analysis of groundwater-level response to rainfall and recharge estimates in fractured hard rock aquifers, NW Ireland

Despite fractured hard rock aquifers underlying over 65% of Ireland, knowledge of key processes controlling groundwater recharge in these bedrock systems is inadequately constrained. In this study, we examined 19 groundwater-level hydrographs from two Irish hillslope sites underlain by hard rock aquifers. Water-level time-series in clustered monitoring wells completed at the subsoil, soil/bedrock interface, shallow and deep bedrocks were continuously monitored hourly over two hydrological years. Correlation methods were applied to investigate groundwater-level response to rainfall, as well as its seasonal variations. The results reveal that the direct groundwater recharge to the shallow and deep bedrocks on hillslope is very limited. Water-level variations within these geological units are likely dominated by slow flow rock matrix storage. The rapid responses to rainfall (⩽2 h) with little seasonal variations were observed to the monitoring wells installed at the subsoil and soil/bedrock interface, as well as those in the shallow or deep bedrocks at the base of the hillslope. This suggests that the direct recharge takes place within these units. An automated time-series procedure using the water-table fluctuation method was developed to estimate groundwater recharge from the water-level and rainfall data. Results show the annual recharge rates of 42–197 mm/yr in the subsoil and soil/bedrock interface, which represent 4–19% of the annual rainfall. Statistical analysis of the relationship between the rainfall intensity and water-table rise reveal that the low rainfall intensity group (⩽1 mm/h) has greater impact on the groundwater recharge rate than other groups (>1 mm/h). This study shows that the combination of the time-series analysis and the water-table fluctuation method could be an useful approach to investigate groundwater recharge in fractured hard rock aquifers in Ireland.

Connection between Caspian sea level variability and ENSO

The problem of the world greatest lake, the Caspian Sea, level changes attracts the increased attention due to its environmental consequences and unique natural characteristics. Despite the huge number of studies aimed to explain the reasons of the sea level variations the underlying mechanism has not yet been clarified. The important question is to what extent the CSL variability is linked to changes in the global climate system and to what extent it can be explained by internal natural variations in the Caspian regional hydrological system. In this study an evidence of a link between the El Niño/Southern Oscillation phenomenon and changes of the Caspian Sea level is presented. This link was also found to be dominating in numerical experiments with the ECHAM4 atmospheric general circulation model on the 20th century climate.

Variations, trends and patterns of fish landings in large tropical reservoirs

Temporal variations of fish yields in four major reservoirs in Thailand (Ubolratana; Sirindhorn; Srinakarin; Vajiralongkorn) were investigated with the use of long-term fish landing data (≥20years). The long-term variations in fish yield, measured as the coefficient of variation of yearly yield, ranged mostly between 50% and 100%. For short-term variations, the means of the relative variation (85%) were larger than the absolute variation (63%). This finding indicates that short-term variations were inversely related to fish yield and that a higher uncertainty occurs when fish catches are low. The stocked exotic species exhibited higher variations than the indigenous species. The trend analyses indicated some species had sharply declined fish landings, while some species were quite stable (i.e. reservoir-adapted species). Stocked species tended to increase in relatively shallow reservoirs, compared to the deep reservoir. Fish landing data for each reservoir were patternized, using the self-organizing map, indicating temporal trends of chronological order. The differences among clusters in each reservoir were with respect to the weight of each species in the fish landings in each year, and temporal changes in species composition in the reservoirs, which would primarily be attributed to the environmental changes followed by anthropogenic pressures. The mean trophic level (τ) fluctuated, resulting from changes in species composition and weight of fish landing, as well as fish stocking programmes.

Molecular measurement of BCR-ABL transcript variations in chronic myeloid leukemia patients in cytogenetic remission

Abstract Background The monitoring of BCR-ABL transcript levels by real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR) has become important to assess minimal residual disease (MRD) and standard of care in the treatment of chronic myeloid leukemia (CML). In this study, we performed a prospective, sequential analysis using RT-qPCR monitoring of BCR-ABL gene rearrangements in blood samples from 91 CML patients in chronic phase (CP) who achieved complete cytogenetic remission (CCyR) and major molecular remission (MMR) throughout imatinib treatment. Methods The absolute level of BCR-ABL transcript from peripheral blood was serially measured every 4 to 12 weeks by RT-qPCR. Only level variations > 0.5%, according to the international scale, was considered positive. Sequential cytogenetic analysis was also performed in bone marrow samples from all patients using standard protocols. Results Based on sequential analysis of BCR-ABL transcripts, the 91 patients were divided into three categories: (A) 57 (62.6%) had no variation on sequential analysis; (B) 30 (32.9%) had a single positive variation result obtained in a single sample; and (C) 4 (4.39%) had variations of BCR-ABL transcripts in at least two consecutive samples. Of the 34 patients who had elevated levels of transcripts (group B and C), 19 (55.8%) had a < 1% of BCR-ABL/BCR ratio, 13 (38.2%) patients had a 1% to 10% increase and 2 patients had a >10% increase of RT-qPCR. The last two patients had lost a CCyR, and none of them showed mutations in the ABL gene. Transient cytogenetic alterations in Ph-negative cells were observed in five (5.5%) patients, and none of whom lost CCyR. Conclusions Despite an increase levels of BCR-ABL/BCR ratio variations by RT-qPCR, the majority of CML patients with MMR remained in CCyR. Thus, such single variations should neither be considered predictive of subsequent failure and nor an indication for altering imatinib dose or switching to second generation therapy. Changing of imatinib on the basis of BCR-ABL/BCR% sustained increase and mutational studies is a prudent approach for preserving other therapeutic options in imatinib-resistant patients.

Sea level measurement using single GNSS antenna SNR signals

This thesis presents a possible method to calculate sea level variation using geodetic-quality Global Navigate Satellite System (GNSS) receivers. Three antennas are used: two small antennas and a choke ring one, analyzing only Global Positioning System signals. The main goal of the thesis is to test a modified configuration for antenna set up. In particular, measurements obtained tilting one antenna to face the horizon are compared to measurements obtained from antennas looking upward. The location of the experiment is a coastal environment nearby the Onsala Space Observatory in Sweden. Sea level variations are obtained using periodogram analysis of the SNR signal and compared to synthetic gauge generated from two independent tide gauges. The choke ring antenna provides poor result, with an RMS around 6 cm and a correlation coefficients of 0.89. The smaller antennas provide correlation coefficients around 0.93. The antenna pointing upward present an RMS of 4.3 cm and the one pointing the horizon an RMS of 6.7 cm. Notable variation in the statistical parameters is found when modifying the length of the interval analyzed. In particular, doubts are risen on the reliability of certain scattered data. No relation is found between the accuracy of the method and weather conditions. Possible methods to enhance the available data are investigated, and correlation coefficient above 0.97 can be obtained with small antennas when sacrificing data points. Hence, the results provide evidence of the suitability of SNR signal analysis for sea level variation in coastal environment even in the case of adverse weather conditions. In particular, tilted configurations provides comparable result with upward looking geodetic antennas. A SNR signal simulator is also tested to investigate its performance and usability. Various configuration are analyzed in combination with the periodogram procedure used to calculate the height of reflectors. Consistency between the data calculated and those received is found, and the overall accuracy of the height calculation program is found to be around 5 mm for input height below 5 m. The procedure is thus found to be suitable to analyze the data provided by the GNSS antennas at Onsala.

Lake level reconstructions at Laguna Potrok Aike (southern Patagonia, Argentina) for the last 49 ka

Four seismic surveys and a stratigraphic record from southernmost Patagonia (Argentina) based on 51 AMS-14C dates obtained in the framework of ICDP expedition 5022 "Potrok Aike Maar Lake Sediment Archive Drilling Project" (PASADO) provide a database to compare the 106 m composite profile from the lake centre with piston cores from the littoral and outcrops in the catchment area. Based on event correlation using distinct volcanic ash layers with unique geochemical composition and optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dates on feldspars, sediment records are firmly linked. This approach allows to match the sediment record with water levels during the past ca. 49 ka providing evidence for lake level variations. Reconstructed lake levels were 20 m higher than today during the last Glacial until the early Holocene. With the migration of the Southern Hemispheric Westerlies over this site the lake level dropped ca. 55 m for a period of two millennia. Thereupon the water balance was more positive again causing a stepwise rise of the lake level until the maximum was reached during the Little Ice Age with a subsequent lowering since the 20th century. We suggest that the mid- to late-Holocene lake level variation is caused by intensity changes of the Southern Hemispheric Westerlies.

Groundwater flow model of the Logan river alluvial aquifer system Josephville, South East Queensland

The study focuses on an alluvial plain situated within a large meander of the Logan River at Josephville near Beaudesert which supports a factory that processes gelatine. The plant draws water from on site bores, as well as the Logan River, for its production processes and produces approximately 1.5 ML per day (Douglas Partners, 2004) of waste water containing high levels of dissolved ions. At present a series of treatment ponds are used to aerate the waste water reducing the level of organic matter; the water is then used to irrigate grazing land around the site. Within the study the hydrogeology is investigated, a conceptual groundwater model is produced and a numerical groundwater flow model is developed from this. On the site are several bores that access groundwater, plus a network of monitoring bores. Assessment of drilling logs shows the area is formed from a mixture of poorly sorted Quaternary alluvial sediments with a laterally continuous aquifer comprised of coarse sands and fine gravels that is in contact with the river. This aquifer occurs at a depth of between 11 and 15 metres and is overlain by a heterogeneous mixture of silts, sands and clays. The study investigates the degree of interaction between the river and the groundwater within the fluvially derived sediments for reasons of both environmental monitoring and sustainability of the potential local groundwater resource. A conceptual hydrogeological model of the site proposes two hydrostratigraphic units, a basal aquifer of coarse-grained materials overlain by a thick semi-confining unit of finer materials. From this, a two-layer groundwater flow model and hydraulic conductivity distribution was developed based on bore monitoring and rainfall data using MODFLOW (McDonald and Harbaugh, 1988) and PEST (Doherty, 2004) based on GMS 6.5 software (EMSI, 2008). A second model was also considered with the alluvium represented as a single hydrogeological unit. Both models were calibrated to steady state conditions and sensitivity analyses of the parameters has demonstrated that both models are very stable for changes in the range of ± 10% for all parameters and still reasonably stable for changes up to ± 20% with RMS errors in the model always less that 10%. The preferred two-layer model was found to give the more realistic representation of the site, where water level variations and the numerical modeling showed that the basal layer of coarse sands and fine gravels is hydraulically connected to the river and the upper layer comprising a poorly sorted mixture of silt-rich clays and sands of very low permeability limits infiltration from the surface to the lower layer. The paucity of historical data has limited the numerical modelling to a steady state one based on groundwater levels during a drought period and forecasts for varying hydrological conditions (e.g. short term as well as prolonged dry and wet conditions) cannot reasonably be made from such a model. If future modelling is to be undertaken it is necessary to establish a regular program of groundwater monitoring and maintain a long term database of water levels to enable a transient model to be developed at a later stage. This will require a valid monitoring network to be designed with additional bores required for adequate coverage of the hydrogeological conditions at the Josephville site. Further investigations would also be enhanced by undertaking pump testing to investigate hydrogeological properties in the aquifer.

Assessment of interactions between alluvial, Great Artesian Basin (GAB) and volcanic aquifers using 3D visualisation and environmental tracers, Lockyer Valley, southeast Queensland, Australia

A detailed 3D lithological model framework was developed using GOCAD software to understand interactions between alluvial, volcanic and GAB aquifers and the spatial and temporal distribution of groundwater recharge to the alluvium of the Lockyer Valley. Groundwater chemistry, isotope data (H20-δ2H and δ18O , 87Sr/86Sr, 3H and 14C) and groundwater level time-series data from approximately 550 observation wells were integrated into the catchment-wide 3D model to assess the recharge processes involved. This approach enabled the identification of zones where recharge to the alluvium primarily occurs from stream water during episodic flood events. Importantly, the study also demonstrates that in some sections of the alluvium recharge is also from storm rainfall and seepage discharge from the underlying GAB aquifers. These other sources of recharge are indicated by (a) the absence of a response of groundwater levels to flooding in some areas, (b) old radiocarbon ages, and (c) distinct bedrock water chemistry and δ2H and δ18O signatures in alluvial groundwater at these locations. Integration of isotopes, water chemistry and time-series displays of groundwater levels before and after the 2010/2011 flood into the 3D model suggest that the spatial variations in the alluvial groundwater response are mostly controlled by valley morphology and lithological (i.e. permeability) variations within the alluvium. Examination of the groundwater level variations in the 3D model also enabled quantification of the volumetric change of groundwater stored in the unconfined alluvial aquifer prior to and post-flood events.

Arcabouço estratigráfico e ciclicidade deposicional dos sistemas sedimentares quaternários da plataforma sul da Bacia de Campos (RJ)

A análise sísmica de ~ 3000 km de dados sísmicos sparker de reflexão monocanal permitiu a proposição de um arcabouço estratigráfico englobando a seção rasa (~300 milisegundos) da plataforma continental sul da Bacia de Campos. Cinco sequências sísmicas foram reconhecidas (Sq1-Sq5), limitadas por superfícies erosivas de escala plataformal (superfícies S1-S5), interpretadas como sequências deposicionais formadas por oscilações glacioeustáticas e limites de sequências (discordâncias regionais) esculpidos durante longos períodos de exposição subaérea e total da plataforma, indicando condições de diminuição de nível de base e destruição parcial de espaço de acomodação sedimentar. As sequências Sq1-Sq4 são dominantemente regressivas, compostas principalmente por prismas de regressão forçada de borda de plataforma/talude superior. A sequência superficial Sq5 é constituída essencialmente de unidades retrogradantes restritas à plataforma continental, interpretadas como compondo uma sequência eminentemente transgressiva. A correlação entre dados sísmicos e cronoestratigráficos de um poço exploratório disponível na área permitiu posicionar a deposição desta sucessão estratigráfica entre o Pleistoceno Médio- Holoceno (últimos ~500 ka). Além disso, a correlação entre a base de dados com curvas globais de variações eustáticas, baseadas nas razões isotópicas de 18O (estágios isotópicos marinhos), permitiu ainda sugerir que a sucessão estratigráfica Sq1-Sq4 registra sequências regressivas de quarta ordem, refletindo deposição durante ciclos glacioeustáticos de ~ 100 -120 ka de duração e de alta amplitude de oscilação eustática (100-145m), que caracterizam o sinal eustático nos últimos ~500 ka. A sequência Sq5 seria uma sequência ainda em formação, constituída por depósitos transgressivos e de mar alto formados durante o Pleistoceno Tardio-Holoceno.