Attribution of extreme weather events in Africa: A preliminary exploration of the science and policy implications

At the most recent session of the Conference of the Parties (COP19) in Warsaw (November 2013) the Warsaw international mechanism for loss and damage associated with climate change impacts was established under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The mechanism aims at promoting the implementation of approaches to address loss and damage associated with the adverse effects of climate change. Specifically, it aims to enhance understanding of risk management approaches to address loss and damage. Understanding risks associated with impacts due to highly predictable (slow onset) events like sea-level rise is relatively straightforward whereas assessing the effects of climate change on extreme weather events and their impacts is much more difficult. However, extreme weather events are a significant cause of loss of life and livelihoods, particularly in vulnerable countries and communities in Africa. The emerging science of probabilistic event attribution is relevant as it provides scientific evidence on the contribution of anthropogenic climate change to changes in risk of extreme events. It thus provides the opportunity to explore scientifically-backed assessments of the human influence on such events. However, different ways of framing attribution questions can lead to very different assessments of change in risk. Here we explain the methods of, and implications of different approaches to attributing extreme weather events with a focus on Africa. Crucially, it demonstrates that defining the most appropriate attribution question to ask is not a science decision but needs to be made in dialogue with those stakeholders who will use the answers.

Emergence of enteric viruses in production chickens is a concern for avian health

Several viruses have been identified in recent years in the intestinal contents of chickens and turkeys with enteric problems, which have been observed in commercial farms worldwide, including Brazil. Molecular detection of these viruses in Brazil can transform to a big threat for poultry production due to risk for intestinal integrity. This disease is characterized by severely delayed growth, low uniformity, lethargy, watery diarrhea, delayed feed consumption, and a decreased conversion rate. Chicken astrovirus (CAstV), rotavirus, reovirus, chicken parvovirus (ChPV), fowl adenovirus of subgroup I (FAdV-1), and avian nephritis virus (ANV) were investigated using the conventional polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and the reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). In addition, the infectious bronchitis virus (IBV), which may play a role in enteric disease, was included. The viruses most frequently detected, either alone or in concomitance with other viruses, were IBV, ANV, rotavirus, and CAstV followed by parvovirus, reovirus, and adenovirus. This study demonstrates the diversity of viruses in Brazilian chicken flocks presenting enteric problems characterized by diarrhea, growth retard, loss weight, and mortality, which reflects the multicausal etiology of this disease

Declines of managed honey bees and beekeepers in Europe

Growing evidence indicates that European managed honey bees are in decline, but information for Europe remains patchy and localized. Here we compile data from 18 European countries to assess trends in the number of honey bee colonies and beekeepers between 1965 and 2005. We found consistent declines in colony numbers in central European countries and some increases in Mediterranean countries. Beekeeper numbers have declined in all of the European countries examined. Our data support the view that honey bees are in decline at least in some regions, which is probably closely linked to the decreasing number of beekeepers. Our data on colony numbers and beekeepers must, however, be interpreted with caution due to different approaches and socioeconomic factors in the various countries, thereby limiting their comparability. We therefore make specific recommendations for standardized methodologies to be adopted at the national and global level to assist in the future monitoring of honey bees.

Effect of 6-month supervised exercise on low-density lipoprotein apolipoprotein B kinetics in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus

Although low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol is often normal in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus, there is evidence for a reduced fractional catabolic rate and consequently an increased mean residence time (MRT), which can increase atherogenic risk. The dyslipidemia and insulin resistance of type 2 diabetes mellitus can be improved by aerobic exercise, but effects on LDL kinetics are unknown. The effect of 6-month supervised exercise on LDL apolipoprotein B kinetics was studied in a group of 17 patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (mean age, 56.8 years; range, 38-68 years). Patients were randomized into a supervised group, who had a weekly training session, and an unsupervised group. LDL kinetics were measured with an infusion of 1-(13)C leucine at baseline in all groups and after 6 months of exercise in the patients. Eight body mass index-matched nondiabetic controls (mean age, 50.3 years; range, 40-67 years) were also studied at baseline only. At baseline, LDL MRT was significantly longer in the diabetic patients, whereas LDL production rate and fractional clearance rates were significantly lower than in controls. Percentage of glycated hemoglobin A(1c), body mass index, insulin sensitivity measured by the homeostasis model assessment, and very low-density lipoprotein triglyceride decreased (P < .02) in the supervised group, with no change in the unsupervised group. After 6 months, LDL cholesterol did not change in either the supervised or unsupervised group; but there was a significant change in LDL MRT between groups (P < .05) that correlated positively with very low-density lipoprotein triglyceride (r = 0.51, P < .04) and negatively with maximal oxygen uptake, a measure of fitness (r = -0.51, P = .035), in all patients. The LDL production and clearance rates did not change in either group. This study suggests that a supervised exercise program can reduce deleterious changes in LDL MRT.

A 700-year paleoecological record of boreal ecosystem responses to climatic variation from Alaska

Recent observations and model simulations have highlighted the sensitivity of the forest - tundra ecotone to climatic forcing. In contrast, paleoecological studies have not provided evidence of tree-line fluctuations in response to Holocene climatic changes in Alaska, suggesting that the forest - tundra boundary in certain areas may be relatively stable at multicentennial to millennial time scales. We conducted a multiproxy study of sediment cores from an Alaskan lake near the altitudinal limits of key boreal-forest species. Paleoecological data were compared with independent climatic reconstructions to assess ecosystem responses of the forest - tundra boundary to Little Ice Age (LIA) climatic. uctuations. Pollen, diatom, charcoal, macrofossil, and magnetic analyses provide the first continuous record of vegetation -. re - climate interactions at decadal to centennial time scales during the past 700 years from southern Alaska. Boreal-forest diebacks characterized by declines of Picea mariana, P. glauca, and tree Betula occurred during the LIA ( AD 1500 - 1800), whereas shrubs ( Alnus viridis, Betula glandulosa/nana) and herbaceous taxa (Epilobium, Aconitum) expanded. Marked increases in charcoal abundance and changes in magnetic properties suggest increases in. re importance and soil erosion during the same period. In addition, the conspicuous reduction or disappearance of certain aquatic ( e. g., Isoetes, Nuphar, Pediastrum) and wetland ( Sphagnum) plants and major shifts in diatom assemblages suggest pronounced lake-level. uctuations and rapid ecosystem reorganization in response to LIA climatic deterioration. Our results imply that temperature shifts of 1 - 2 degrees C, when accompanied by major changes in moisture balance, can greatly alter high-altitudinal terrestrial, wetland, and aquatic ecosystems, including conversion between boreal-forest tree line and tundra. The climatic and ecosystem variations in our study area appear to be coherent with changes in solar irradiance, suggesting that changes in solar activity contributed to the environmental instability of the past 700 years.

The arbor of amorous devices, 1597,

A poetical miscellany, compiled and edited by Richard Jones, the printer, and attributed to Breton, although proof of the authorship of the various poems is in most instances impossible. cf. Introd., p. xiii-xv.

Brittons Bowre of delights, 1591,

A poetical miscellany, the majority of poems being unquestionably written by Nicholas Breton. It is practically certain that Richard Jones, the printer, was also the compiler and editor. cf. Introd., p. xiii, xviii.

Common forest trees of Virginia : a pocket manual describing their most important characteristics /

Mode of access: Internet.

Remarks on the manner in which tithe should be assessed to the poor's rate, under the existing law, with a protest against the change which will be produced in that law, by a bill introduced into the House of commons by Mr. Shaw Lefevre.

Goldsmiths'-Kress no. 30456.

Drych y dadleuwr.

A reply to John Robert's Galwad difrifol.

Peasant rents, being the first half of An essay on the distribution of wealth and on the sources of taxation,

Mode of access: Internet.