Climatic variability in Central Indian Himalaya during the last similar to 1800 years: Evidence from a high resolution speleothem record

Stable isotopes from a U/Th dated aragonite stalagmite from the Central Kumaun Himalaya provide evidence of variation in climatic conditions in the last similar to 1800 years. The delta O-18 and delta C-13 values vary from -4.3 parts per thousand to -7.6 parts per thousand and -3.4 parts per thousand to -9.1 parts per thousand respectively, although the stalagmite was not grown in isotopic equilibrium with cave drip water, a clear palaeoclimatic signal in stalagmite delta O-18 values is evident based on the regional climate data. The stalagmite showed a rapid growth rate during 830-910 AD, most likely the lower part of Medieval Warm Period (MWP), and 1600-1640 AD, the middle part of Little Ice Age (LIA). Two distinct phases of reduced precipitation are marked by a 2 parts per thousand shift in 8180 values towards the end of MWP (similar to 1080-1160 AD) and after its termination from similar to 1210 to 1440 AD. The LIA (similar to 1440-1880 AD) is represented by sub-tropical climate similar to modern conditions, whereas the post-LIA was comparatively drier. The Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) was located over the cave location during wetter/warmer conditions. When it shifted southward, precipitation over the study area decreased. A prominent drop in delta O-18 and delta C-13 values during the post-LIA period may also have been additionally influenced by anthropogenic activity in the area. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd and INQUA. All rights reserved.

On the climatology, oceanography and fisheries of the Panama Bight

ENGLISH: Seasonal changes in the climatology, oceanography and fisheries of the Panama Bight are determined mainly by the latitudinal movements of the ITCZ over the region. Evaporation is about 980 mm annually. Rainfall is probably much less than previous estimates because of a discontinuity in the ITCZ. Freshwater runoff from the northern watershed varies from 22 X 109 m3/mo in October-November to 11 X 109 m3/mo in February-March; from the southeastern watershed it varies from 16 X 109 m3/mo in April-June to 9 X 109 m3/mo in October-December. Total annual runoff is about 350 X 109m3. A marked salinity front is found at all seasons off the eastern shore. In the northern part of the Bight temperatures in the upper layers remained fairly constant from May to November; by February the mean temperature had decreased by 4°C and sharp gradients existed in the geographic distributions. Salinities in the upper layers decreased steadily from May to November; by February the mean salinity had increased by 2.5‰. The mean depth of the mixed layer increased from 27 m in May to 40 m in November; by February upwelling decreased it to 18 m. Between November and February upwelling had doubled the amount of P04-P and tripled that of NO3-N in the euphotic zone; surface phytoplankton production and standing crop, and zooplankton concentrations also doubled during this period. Upwelling was about 1.5 m/mo during May-November and about 9.0 m/mo during November-February, the annual total is about 48 m, Mean primary production is about 0.3 gC/m2day during May-December and about 0.6 gC/m2day during January-April; annual production is about 140 gC/m2. A thermal ridge occurred in February running from the northern to the southwestern part of the Bight. Within this ridge was a marked thermal dome coinciding with the center of the cyclonic circulation cell. Upwelling in the dome averaged 16 m/mo in November-February. The fisheries of the Panama Bight annually produce about 30,000 metric tons of food species and about 68,000 m.t. of species used for reduction. Most attempts to further the understanding of tuna ecology were unsuccessful. The apparent abundances of yellowfin and skipjack in the northern part of the Bight appear to be related to the seasonal cycle of upwelling and enrichment, as abundances are greatest in April and May when food appears to be plentiful. The life-cycle of the anchoveta in the Gulf of Panama also appears to be related to upwelling; the species mass varies from about 39,000 m.t. in December to about 169,000 m.t, in April. About 19.1 X 1012 anchoveta eggs are spawned annually. The life-cycles of shrimp in the Panama Bight appear to be related to upwelling as catches are greatest in May-July, about 3-5 months after peak upwelling, and annual catches are inversely correlated with sea level. SPANISH: Los cambios estacionales en la climatología, oceanografía y pesquerías del Panamá Bight están determinados principalmente por el movimiento latitudinal sobre la región de la Zona de Convergencia Intertropical (ZCIT). La evaporación es de unos 980 mm al año. La pluviosidad es probablemente muy inferior a las estimaciones previas a causa de la descontinuidad en la ZCIT. El drenaje de agua dulce, de la vertiente septentrional, varía de 22 x 109m3/mes en octubre-noviembre hasta 11 x 109m3/mes en febreromarzo; el de la vertiente sudeste varía de 16 x 109m3/mes en abril-junio a 9 x 109m3/mes en octubre-diciembre. El drenaje total, anual, es alrededor de 350 x 109m3. En todas las estaciones frente al litoral oriental se encuentra un frente de salinidad marcada. En la parte septentrional del Bight las temperaturas en las capas superiores permanecieron más bien constantes de mayo a noviembre; en febrero la temperatura media había disminuido en unos 4°C y existieron gradientes agudos en las distribuciones geográficas. Las salinidades en las capas superiores disminuyeron constantemente de mayo a noviembre; en febrero la salinidad media había aumentado en 2.5‰. La profundidad media de la capa mixta aumentó de 27 m en mayo a 40 m en noviembre; en febrero el afloramiento disminuyó el espesor de la capa mixta hasta 18 m. Entre noviembre y febrero el afloramiento había duplicado la cantidad de PO4-P y triplicado la de NO3-N en la zona eufótica; la producción superficial de fitoplancton y la biomasa primaria y las concentraciones de zooplancton también se duplicaron durante este período. El afloramiento era cerca de 1.5 mimes durante mayo-noviembre y de unos 9.0 mimes durante noviembre-febrero, el total anual es de unos 48 m. La producción media primaria es aproximadamente de 0.3 gC/m2 al día durante mayo-diciembre y cerca de 0.6 gC/m2 al día durante enero-abril; la producción anual es de unos 140 gC/m2. En febrero apareció una convexidad termal que se extendió de la parte norte a la parte sudoeste del Bight. Dentro de esta convexidad se encontró un domo termal marcado el cual coincidió con el centro de la circulación ciclonal de la célula. El afloramiento en el domo tuvo un promedio de 16 mimes en noviembre-febrero. Las pesquerías del Panamá Bight producen anualmente de cerca 30,000 toneladas métricas de especies alimenticias y unas 68,000 t.m. de especies usadas para la reducción. La mayoría de los esfuerzos realizados con el fin de adquirir más conocimiento sobre la ecología del atún no tuvo éxito. La abundancia aparente del atún aleta amarilla y del barrilete en la parte septentrional del Bight parece estar relacionada con el ciclo estacional del afloramiento y del enriquecimiento, ya que la abundancia mayor en abril y mayo cuando parece que hay abundancia es de alimento. El ciclo de vida de la anchoveta en el Golfo de Panamá parece también que está relacionada al afloramiento. La masa de la especie varía de unas 39,000 t.m. en diciembre a cerca de 169,000 t.m. en abril. Aproximadamente 19.1 x 1012 huevos de anchoveta son desovados anualmente. Los ciclos de vida del camarón en el Panamá Bight parecen estar relacionados con el afloramiento ya que las capturas son superiores en mayo-julio, unos 3-5 meses después del ápice del afloramiento, y las capturas anuales se correlacionan inversamente con el nivel del mar. (PDF contains 340 pages.)

25ka B.P.以来黑潮流域古环境演化对高频全球变化事件的响应

本文利用黑潮流域主流轴上的两个柱状沉积物岩芯MD05-2908以及PC-1为研究材料，在AMS14C测年的基础上，利用高分辨率的有机地球化学分析记录结合浮游有孔虫氧、碳同位素，恢复并重建了过去25,000 cal a BP以来黑潮流域古海洋环境演化的历史。以及表层海水生产力以及物质输送状况的演化历史。通过利用Uk’37古海水温度以及盐度指标恢复重建了过去25,000 cal a BP以来海洋表层海水温度、盐度；通过机碳、氮含量以及同位素变化、长链正构烷烃以及正构烷醇等指标重建了过去7000a B.P.以来的陆源物质输入历史；通过长链不饱和烯酮含量以及有机碳同位素指标恢复了过去7000a B.P.以来海水表层生产力的历史。此外，通过基于以上各种指标的环境信息与区域以及全球其它气候记录进行对比研究以及不同环境指标的时间系列分析，探讨了该区表层环流系统以及生产力的演化对于全球气候变化的响应，揭示了不同尺度的短周期高频率全球变化事件在黑潮流域的具体作用过程和响应机制。通过这些研究取得了以下的主要认识： 基于有机地球化学指标的古气候环境记录与黑潮流域已有的研究成果有很好的对应关系，从我们高分辨率的有机地球化学记录中可以识别出全新世黑潮强弱变化的几次明显的事件；25000a B.P.以来黑潮流域的环境变化与全球环境变化有着很好的对应性，黑潮强弱演化总体趋势与全球气候背景演化相一致，黑潮对高频气候变化事件的记录与全球记录具有同步性，这种同步性尤其体现在末次冰消期以来的气候快速高频振荡以及全新世以来的气候突变事件上。 全球性的高频气候事件对黑潮主体本身及黑潮流域的相邻区域的大气和海洋环流都具有重要的控制作用，这种控制作用主要通过副高、ITCZ以及季风三种气候要素之间相互关联、彼此影响造成的。具体表现为：太阳辐射量的减少导致热力差异减小，这种相对减小弱化了热带西太平洋的对流活动，造成了西太平洋副热带高压长期偏南、偏东，ITCZ平均北界位置偏南，降雨带长时间集中在南部地区，增强的降雨量提高了风化剥蚀以及沉积物向海洋搬运的能力，陆源物质供应量增加；同时，辐射量以及热力差的减小又与加强的东亚冬季风相联系，增强的冬季风导致了近底层“雾状层”物质的向海传输，物质传输效率增高。这种物源供应以及搬运量的双重增加导致了冲绳海槽流域物质通量的增加。 基于有机地球化学指标的海洋表层生产力的变化与陆源物质供应量以及黑潮流的强弱变化存在着对应关系，通常情况增加的海洋表层生产力对应着高的陆源物质输入以及相对较弱的黑潮。这种变化与东亚夏季风的以及冬季风的强弱都有很好的一致性。陆源物质的输入增加了表层营养物质的含量，导致生产力的勃发；陆源物质的输入增加又对应着减少的太阳辐射量，偏南的ITCZ北界位置以及副热带高压，这些对应于减弱的东亚夏季风（增强的东亚冬季风）。 黑潮流域的高沉积速率事件对应于减弱的黑潮强度和增加的ENSO频度，这些事件与上述的副热带高压、ITCZ位移和强弱的变化相一致。黑潮流域过去25000a B.P.以来南北温度的差异有冰期加大而全新世减小的趋势，但这种冰期与全新世的差异很小，我们认为末次盛冰期的时候黑潮主流轴没有移出冲绳黑潮，只是由于强度的减弱受陆架水体的影响有所加大。 黑潮流域很好的记录到了包括数千年尺度的D/O旋回周期到大气——海洋系统内部振荡所致的PDO、NAO等数十年尺度的高频振荡，说明黑潮流域对过去全球及区域环境变化事件有很好的响应。黑潮流域各古海洋指标所记录周期上的一致性说明这些环境因子控制机理上具有的一致性，即大背景上受太阳活动所引起的辐射量变化控制，局部的高频快速气候波动又受到局域性的气候因素如海气相互作用的放大影响。

Intraseasonal variability of Indian Ocean sea surface temperature during boreal winter: Madden-Julian Oscillation versus submonthly forcing and processes

[ 1] Intraseasonal variability of Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) during boreal winter is investigated by analyzing available data and a suite of solutions to an ocean general circulation model for 1998 - 2004. This period covers the QuikSCAT and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) observations. Impacts of the 30 - 90 day and 10 - 30 day atmospheric intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs) are examined separately, with the former dominated by the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and the latter dominated by convectively coupled Rossby and Kelvin waves. The maximum variation of intraseasonal SST occurs at 10 degrees S - 2 degrees S in the wintertime Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), where the mixed layer is thin and intraseasonal wind speed reaches its maximum. The observed maximum warming ( cooling) averaged over ( 60 degrees E - 85 degrees E, 10 degrees S - 3 degrees S) is 1.13 degrees C ( - 0.97 degrees C) for the period of interest, with a standard deviation of 0.39 degrees C in winter. This SST change is forced predominantly by the MJO. While the MJO causes a basin-wide cooling ( warming) in the ITCZ region, submonthly ISOs cause a more complex SST structure that propagates southwestward in the western-central basin and southeastward in the eastern ocean. On both the MJO and submonthly timescales, winds are the deterministic factor for the SST variability. Short-wave radiation generally plays a secondary role, and effects of precipitation are negligible. The dominant role of winds results roughly equally from wind speed and stress forcing. Wind speed affects SST by altering turbulent heat fluxes and entrainment cooling. Wind stress affects SST via several local and remote oceanic processes.

Mixed-layer water oscillations in tropical Pacific for ENSO cycle

The main modes of interannal variabilities of thermocline and sea surface wind stress in the tropical Pacific and their interactions are investigated, which show the following results. (1) The thermocline anomalies in the tropical Pacific have a zonal dipole pattern with 160 W as its axis and a meridional seesaw pattern with 6-8 degrees N as its transverse axis. The meridional oscillation has a phase lag of about 90 to the zonal oscillation, both oscillations get together to form the El Nino/La Nina cycle, which behaves as a mixed layer water oscillates anticlockwise within the tropical Pacific basin between equator and 12 degrees N. (2) There are two main patterns of wind stress anomalies in the tropical Pacific, of which the first component caused by trade wind anomaly is characterized by the zonal wind stress anomalies and its corresponding divergences field in the equatorial Pacific, and the abnormal cross- equatorial flow wind stress and its corresponding divergence field, which has a sign opposite to that of the equatorial region, in the off-equator of the tropical North Pacific, and the second component represents the wind stress anomalies and corresponding divergences caused by the ITCZ anomaly. (3) The trade winds anomaly plays a decisive role in the strength and phase transition of the ENSO cycle, which results in the sea level tilting, provides an initial potential energy to the mixed layer water oscillation, and causes the opposite thermocline displacement between the west side and east side of the equator and also between the equator and 12 degrees N of the North Pacific basin, therefore determines the amplitude and route for ENSO cycle. The ITCZ anomaly has some effects on the phase transition. (4) The thermal anomaly of the tropical western Pacific causes the wind stress anomaly and extends eastward along the equator accompanied with the mixed layer water oscillation in the equatorial Pacific, which causes the trade winds anomaly and produces the anomalous wind stress and the corresponding divergence in favor to conduce the oscillation, which in turn intensifies the oscillation. The coupled system of ocean-atmosphere interactions and the inertia gravity of the mixed layer water oscillation provide together a phase-switching mechanism and interannual memory for the ENSO cycle. In conclusion, the ENSO cycle essentially is an inertial oscillation of the mixed layer water induced by both the trade winds anomaly and the coupled ocean-atmosphere interaction in the tropical Pacific basin between the equator and 12 degrees N. When the force produced by the coupled ocean-atmosphere interaction is larger than or equal to the resistance caused by the mixed layer water oscillation, the oscillation will be stronger or maintain as it is, while when the force is less than the resistance, the oscillation will be weaker, even break.

东海内陆架泥质区EC2005孔沉积特征及古环境记录

本论文通过对东海内陆架浙闽沿岸泥质沉积带EC2005孔沉积物岩性、粒度、AMS14C测年、粘土矿物以及全岩矿物衍射分析、沉积物常微量元素和稀土元素分析、总碳氮以及有机碳氮分析、磁化率测试和综合研究，以EC2005孔岩芯记录为依据分析了研究区的沉积环境演化、海平面升降、浙闽沿岸流形成历史以及蕴含的古气候信息，探讨了陆源物质矿物、地球化学成分与粒度的关系。 EC2005孔岩芯自底部至41.00 m（17.3~13.1 ka BP）为末次冰消期以来的湖泊三角洲沉积序列，物质来源主要是来自湖盆流域物质的输入。随着海平面逐渐上升，海水自13.1 ka BP开始侵入研究区，自12.3 ka BP开始海水深度加大，沿岸流的地位开始显现，7.3 ka BP以来，形成了高海平面以来主要受沿岸流控制的浅海沉积。稀土元素结果显示，东海内陆架EC2005孔12.3~9.8 ka BP是以湖盆流域近源物质为主向长江物质为主转变的过渡阶段，自大约10~9.8 ka BP开始，由于海水深度的进一步加大、沿岸流作用进一步增强，长江物质对研究区的物质供给成为主导。海平面的升高以及沿岸流的形成是物质来源发生变化的重要原因。 东海内陆架泥质沉积物中全新世期间长达700 a（5.9~5.2 ka BP）的高分辨率细粒敏感组分资料揭示的东亚冬季风增强，与GRIP冰芯δ18O揭示的冷期具有良好的对应关系。5500 a BP前后东亚冬季风突然增强，与世界范围内的5500 a BP强降温事件非常一致。功率谱分析揭示出62 a和11 a的太阳活动周期以及与现代ENSO周期相似的6 a和5 a周期，因此，中全新世东亚冬季风演化可能是太阳活动以及古ENSO事件对全球气候系统的影响所致。 东海内陆架区对末次冰消期至早全新世气候回暖的记录与该时期世界性的广泛记录相一致，应该是轨道时间尺度上太阳辐射增强与ITCZ北移以及太阳活动变化综合影响的结果。东海内陆架浙-闽沿岸泥质带EC2005孔存在的4个百年时间尺度上快速沉积事件：12.3~12.1 ka BP、7.5~7.3 ka BP、5.9~5.2 ka BP和1.5~1.3 ka BP，与新仙女木事件、7.3 ka BP冷事件、第二新冰期（5.5 ka BP强降温事件）以及北大西洋1.4 ka BP浮冰事件均有良好的对应，世界范围内广泛存在的8.2 ka冷事件对本钻孔沉积也形成了一定影响。 EC2005孔磁化率变化受到多种因素的制约，如岩性粗细、早期成岩作用以及人类活动等的影响。近3.6 ka以来，磁化率的剧烈波动可能是由于人类活动影响造成的。东海内陆架EC2005孔TOC、TN和TOC/TN的大小主要受控于岩性变化。 此外，根据陆源物质粒度和矿物成分之间的关系，建立了陆源物质平均粒径与主要矿物成分含量大小的函数模型。地球化学成分与其所赋存单种矿物的相关性分析则进一步表明，陆源矿物种类和含量控制着地球化学成分及其含量，矿物种类和含量对地球化学成分的控制是决定性的，而粒度对元素（化学成分）的“控制”实际上是由于不同粒度的矿物组分不同而造成。

Joint distributions of waves and rain

The transfer of gases between the atmosphere and ocean is affected by a number of processes, of which wave action and rainfall are two of potential significance. Efforts have been made to quantify separately their contributions; however such assessments neglect the interaction of these phenomena. Here we look at the correlation statistics of waves and rain to note which regions display a strong association between rainfall and the local sea state. The conditional probability of rain varies from ~0.5% to ~15%, with most of the equatorial belt (which contains the ITCZ) showing a greater likelihood of rain at the lowest sea states. In contrast the occurrence of rain is independent of wave height in the Southern Ocean. The 1997/98 El Niño enhances the frequency of rain in some Pacific regions, with this change showing some association with wave conditions.

Lake Kumphawapi – an archive of Holocene palaeoenvironmental and palaeoclimatic changes in northeast Thailand

The long-term climatic and environmental history of Southeast Asia, and of Thailand in particular, is still fragmentary. Here we present a new 14C-dated, multi-proxy sediment record (TOC, C/N, CNS isotopes, Si, Zr, K, Ti, Rb, Ca elemental data, biogenic silica) for Lake Kumphawapi, the second largest natural lake in northeast Thailand. The data set provides a reconstruction of changes in lake status, groundwater fluctuations, and catchment run-off during the Holocene. A comparison of multiple sediment sequences and their proxies suggests that the summer monsoon was stronger between c. 9800 and 7000 cal yr BP. Lake status and water level changes around 7000 cal yr BP signify a shift to lower effective moisture. By c. 6500 cal yr BP parts of the lake had been transformed into a peatland, while areas of shallow water still occupied the deeper part of the basin until c. 5400–5200 cal yr BP. The driest interval in Kumphawapi's history occurred between c. 5200 and 3200 cal yr BP, when peat extended over large parts of the basin. After 3200 cal yr BP, the deepest part of the lake again turned into a wetland, which existed until c. 1600 cal yr BP. The observed lake-level rise after 1600 cal yr BP could have been caused by higher moisture availability, although increased human influence in the catchment cannot be ruled out. The present study highlights the use of multiple sediment sequences and proxies to study large lakes, such as Lake Kumphawapi in order to correctly assess the time transgressive response to past changes in hydroclimate conditions. Our new data set from northeast Thailand adds important palaeoclimatic information for a region in Southeast Asia and allows discussing Holocene monsoon variability and ITCZ movement in greater detail.

Hydroclimatic shifts in northeast Thailand during the last two millennia - the record of Lake Pa Kho

The Southeast Asian mainland is located in the central path of the Asian summer monsoon, a region where paleoclimatic data are still sparse. Here we present a multi-proxy (TOC, C/N, δ¹³C, biogenic silica, and XRF elemental data) study of a 1.5m sediment/peat sequence from Lake Pa Kho, northeast Thailand, which is supported by 20 AMS ¹⁴C ages. Hydroclimatic reconstructions for Pa Kho suggest a strengthened summer monsoon between BC 170-AD 370, AD 800-960, and after AD 1450; and a weakening of the summer monsoon between AD 370-800, and AD 1300-1450. Increased run-off and a higher nutrient supply after AD 1700 can be linked to agricultural intensification and land-use changes in the region. This study fills an important gap in data coverage with respect to summer monsoon variability over Southeast Asia during the past 2000 years and enables the mean position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) to be inferred based on comparisons with other regional studies. Intervals of strengthened/weaker summer monsoon rainfall suggest that the mean position of the ITCZ was located as far north as 35°N between BC 170-AD 370 and AD 800-960, whereas it likely did not reach above 17°N during the drought intervals of AD 370-800 and AD 1300-1450. The spatial pattern of rainfall variation seems to have changed after AD 1450, when the inferred moisture history for Pa Kho indicates a more southerly location of the mean position of the summer ITCZ.

Establishing paleorecords in the galapagos using hydrogen isotope ratios as a proxy for climate change

Senior thesis written for Oceanography 445

SST–convection relation over tropical oceans

According to current knowledge, convection over the tropical oceans increases with sea surface temperature (SST) from 26 to 29 °C, and at SSTs above 29 °C, it sharply decreases. Our research shows that it is only over the summer warm pool areas of Indian and west Pacific Oceans (monsoon areas) where the zone of maximum SST is away from the equator that this kind of SST-convection relationship exists. In these areas (1) convection is related to the SST gradient that generates low-level moisture convergence and upward vertical motion in the atmosphere. This has modelling support. Regions of SST maxima have low SST gradients and therefore feeble convection. (2) Convection initiated by SST gradient produces strong wind fields particularly cross-equatorial low-level jetstreams (LLJs) on the equator-ward side of the warm pool and both the convection and LLJ grow through a positive feedback process. Thus, large values of convection are associated with the cyclonic vorticity of the LLJ in the atmospheric boundary layer. In the inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) over the east Pacific Ocean and the south Pacific convergence zone (SPCZ) over the west Pacific Ocean, low-level winds from north and south hemisphere converge in the zone of maximum SST, which lies close to the equator producing there elongated bands of deep convection, where we find that convection increases with SST for the full range of SSTs unlike in the warm pool regions. The low-level wind divergence computed using QuikSCAT winds has large and significant linear correlation with convection in both the warm pool and ITCZ/SPCZ areas. But the linear correlation between SST and convection is large only for the ITCZ/SPCZ. These findings have important implications for the modelling of largescale atmospheric circulations and the associated convective rainfall over the tropical oceans

Enhancement of ENSO variability by a weakened Atlantic thermohaline circulation in a coupled GCM

A coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model is used to investigate the modulation of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability due to a weakened Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC). The THC weakening is induced by freshwater perturbations in the North Atlantic, and leads to a well-known sea surface temperature dipole and a southward shift of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) in the tropical Atlantic. Through atmospheric teleconnections and local coupled air–sea feedbacks, a meridionally asymmetric mean state change is generated in the eastern equatorial Pacific, corresponding to a weakened annual cycle, and westerly anomalies develop over the central Pacific. The westerly anomalies are associated with anomalous warming of SST, causing an eastward extension of the west Pacific warm pool particularly in August–February, and enhanced precipitation. These and other changes in the mean state lead in turn to an eastward shift of the zonal wind anomalies associated with El Niño events, and a significant increase in ENSO variability. In response to a 1-Sv (1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1) freshwater input in the North Atlantic, the THC slows down rapidly and it weakens by 86% over years 50–100. The Niño-3 index standard deviation increases by 36% during the first 100-yr simulation relative to the control simulation. Further analysis indicates that the weakened THC not only leads to a stronger ENSO variability, but also leads to a stronger asymmetry between El Niño and La Niña events. This study suggests a role for an atmospheric bridge that rapidly conveys the influence of the Atlantic Ocean to the tropical Pacific and indicates that fluctuations of the THC can mediate not only mean climate globally but also modulate interannual variability. The results may contribute to understanding both the multidecadal variability of ENSO activity during the twentieth century and longer time-scale variability of ENSO, as suggested by some paleoclimate records.

The influence of a weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation on ENSO

The influences of a substantial weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) on the tropical Pacific climate mean state, the annual cycle, and ENSO variability are studied using five different coupled general circulation models (CGCMs). In the CGCMs, a substantial weakening of the AMOC is induced by adding freshwater flux forcing in the northern North Atlantic. In response, the well-known surface temperature dipole in the low-latitude Atlantic is established, which reorganizes the large-scale tropical atmospheric circulation by increasing the northeasterly trade winds. This leads to a southward shift of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) in the tropical Atlantic and also the eastern tropical Pacific. Because of evaporative fluxes, mixing, and changes in Ekman divergence, a meridional temperature anomaly is generated in the northeastern tropical Pacific, which leads to the development of a meridionally symmetric thermal background state. In four out of five CGCMs this leads to a substantial weakening of the annual cycle in the eastern equatorial Pacific and a subsequent intensification of ENSO variability due to nonlinear interactions. In one of the CGCM simulations, an ENSO intensification occurs as a result of a zonal mean thermocline shoaling. Analysis suggests that the atmospheric circulation changes forced by tropical Atlantic SSTs can easily influence the large-scale atmospheric circulation and hence tropical eastern Pacific climate. Furthermore, it is concluded that the existence of the present-day tropical Pacific cold tongue complex and the annual cycle in the eastern equatorial Pacific are partly controlled by the strength of the AMOC. The results may have important implications for the interpretation of global multidecadal variability and paleo-proxy data.

Reactive Halogens in the Marine Boundary Layer (RHaMBLe): the tropical North Atlantic experiments

The NERC UK SOLAS-funded Reactive Halogens in the Marine Boundary Layer (RHaMBLe) programme comprised three field experiments. This manuscript presents an overview of the measurements made within the two simultaneous remote experiments conducted in the tropical North Atlantic in May and June 2007. Measurements were made from two mobile and one ground-based platforms. The heavily instrumented cruise D319 on the RRS Discovery from Lisbon, Portugal to São Vicente, Cape Verde and back to Falmouth, UK was used to characterise the spatial distribution of boundary layer components likely to play a role in reactive halogen chemistry. Measurements onboard the ARSF Dornier aircraft were used to allow the observations to be interpreted in the context of their vertical distribution and to confirm the interpretation of atmospheric structure in the vicinity of the Cape Verde islands. Long-term ground-based measurements at the Cape Verde Atmospheric Observatory (CVAO) on São Vicente were supplemented by long-term measurements of reactive halogen species and characterisation of additional trace gas and aerosol species during the intensive experimental period. This paper presents a summary of the measurements made within the RHaMBLe remote experiments and discusses them in their meteorological and chemical context as determined from these three platforms and from additional meteorological analyses. Air always arrived at the CVAO from the North East with a range of air mass origins (European, Atlantic and North American continental). Trace gases were present at stable and fairly low concentrations with the exception of a slight increase in some anthropogenic components in air of North American origin, though NOx mixing ratios during this period remained below 20 pptv. Consistency with these air mass classifications is observed in the time series of soluble gas and aerosol composition measurements, with additional identification of periods of slightly elevated dust concentrations consistent with the trajectories passing over the African continent. The CVAO is shown to be broadly representative of the wider North Atlantic marine boundary layer; measurements of NO, O3 and black carbon from the ship are consistent with a clean Northern Hemisphere marine background. Aerosol composition measurements do not indicate elevated organic material associated with clean marine air. Closer to the African coast, black carbon and NO levels start to increase, indicating greater anthropogenic influence. Lower ozone in this region is possibly associated with the increased levels of measured halocarbons, associated with the nutrient rich waters of the Mauritanian upwelling. Bromide and chloride deficits in coarse mode aerosol at both the CVAO and on D319 and the continuous abundance of inorganic gaseous halogen species at CVAO indicate significant reactive cycling of halogens. Aircraft measurements of O3 and CO show that surface measurements are representative of the entire boundary layer in the vicinity both in diurnal variability and absolute levels. Above the inversion layer similar diurnal behaviour in O3 and CO is observed at lower mixing ratios in the air that had originated from south of Cape Verde, possibly from within the ITCZ. ECMWF calculations on two days indicate very different boundary layer depths and aircraft flights over the ship replicate this, giving confidence in the calculated boundary layer depth.

Climate impacts of recent multidecadal changes in Atlantic Ocean Sea Surface Temperature: A multimodel comparison

During the twentieth century sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean exhibited prominent multidecadal variations. The source of such variations has yet to be rigorously established—but the question of their impact on climate can be investigated. Here we report on a set of multimodel experiments to examine the impact of patterns of warming in the North Atlantic, and cooling in the South Atlantic, derived from observations, that is characteristic of the positive phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The experiments were carried out with six atmospheric General Circulation Models (including two versions of one model), and a major goal was to assess the extent to which key climate impacts are consistent between the different models. The major climate impacts are found over North and South America, with the strongest impacts over land found over the United States and northern parts of South America. These responses appear to be driven by a combination of an off-equatorial Gill response to diabatic heating over the Caribbean due to increased rainfall within the region and a Northward shift in the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) due to the anomalous cross-equatorial SST gradient. The majority of the models show warmer US land temperatures and reduced Mean Sea Level Pressure during summer (JJA) in response to a warmer North Atlantic and a cooler South Atlantic, in line with observations. However the majority of models show no significant impact on US rainfall during summer. Over northern South America, all models show reduced rainfall in southern hemisphere winter (JJA), whilst in Summer (DJF) there is a generally an increase in rainfall. However, there is a large spread amongst the models in the magnitude of the rainfall anomalies over land. Away from the Americas, there are no consistent significant modelled responses. In particular there are no significant changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) over the North Atlantic and Europe in Winter (DJF). Additionally, the observed Sahel drying signal in African rainfall is not seen in the modelled responses. Suggesting that, in contrast to some studies, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation was not the primary driver of recent reductions in Sahel rainfall.