Macroeconomic News and Exchange Rates: Evidence of Unstable Effect

Although the link between macroeconomic news announcements and exchange rates is well documented in recent literature, this connection may be unstable. By using a broad set of macroeconomic news announcements and high frequency forex data for the Euro/Dollar, Pound/Dollar and Yen/Dollar from Nov 1, 2004 to Mar 31, 2014, we obtain two major findings with regards to this instability. First, many macroeconomic news announcements exhibit unstable effects with certain patterns in foreign exchange rates. These news effects may change in magnitude and even in their sign over time, over business cycles and crises within distinctive contexts. This finding is robust because the results are obtained by applying a Two-Regime Smooth Transition Regression Model, a Breakpoints Regression Model, and an Efficient Test of Parameter Instability which are all consistent with each other. Second, when we explore the source of this instability, we find that global risks and the reaction by central bank monetary policy to these risks to be possible factors causing this instability.

Adaptive social protection: mapping the evidence and policy context in the agriculture sector in south Asia

An aim of government and the international community is to respond to global processes and crises through a range of policy and practical approaches that help limit damage from shocks and stresses. Three approaches to vulnerability reduction that have become particularly prominent in recent years are social protection (SP), disaster risk reduction (DRR) and climate change adaptation (CCA). Although these approaches have much in common, they have developed separately over the last two decades. However, given the increasingly complex and interlinked array of risks that poor and vulnerable people face, it is likely that they will not be sufficient in the long run if they continue to be applied in isolation from one another. In recognition of this challenge, the concept of Adaptive Social Protection (ASP) has been developed. ASP refers to a series of measures which aims to build resilience of the poorest and most vulnerable people to climate change by combining elements of SP, DRR and CCA in programmes and projects. The aim of this paper is to provide an initial assessment of the ways in which these elements are being brought together in development policy and practice. It does this by conducting a meta-analysis of 124 agricultural programmes implemented in five countries in south Asia. These are Afghanistan, Bangladesh, India, Nepal and Pakistan. The findings show that full integration of SP, DRR and CCA is relatively limited in south Asia, although there has been significant progress in combining SP and DRR in the last ten years. Projects that combine elements of SP, DRR and CCA tend to emphasise broad poverty and vulnerability reduction goals relative to those that do not. Such approaches can provide valuable lessons and insights for the promotion of climate resilient livelihoods amongst policymakers and practitioners.

Financial globalization and the emerging economies

Includes bibliography

Social dimensions of macroeconomic policy: report of the Executive Committee on Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations

Introduction The social agenda is long-term in nature, in the sense that poverty alleviation along with a better distribution of income, wealth and opportunities are long-term goals. A sound macroeconomic policy, on the other hand, has to do largely with the consistent management of short-term policy instruments pursuing a sustainable and predictable pace for aggregate economic variables and major prices (wages, inflation, interest rates and exchange rates). In spite of the different arena and rationale in which they play, there are strong links between the two. First and most obvious, macroeconomic adjustment and structural reform are more likely to be sustainable when they are equitable. Second, social intervention —i.e., policies, programmes and reforms aimed at improving social performance in the long run—, needs stable funding which is not always available in view of macroeconomic constraints. Third, macroeconomic instability —especially episodes of recession or hyperinflation— increases poverty and inequality, while restoring macroeconomic equilibrium does not restore previous social balances. Finally, there is no unique macroeconomic policy mix to tackle a given situation, and the policy options may not be neutral from a social standpoint. Monetary, fiscal and exchange rate policies, together with structural reform, have major consequences for the social wellbeing of societies, not only in terms of protection against shocks and crises but also in terms of equity. Many, if not all, of the necessary social policies are of a domestic nature. This report thus concentrates on domestic strategies aimed at maximizing the linkages between consistent macroeconomic policies and social progress. Pursuing them, however, depends to a considerable extent on the international enabling environment in which the global financial system, the unsettled debt crisis and increasing ODA flows play a significant role. Countries operate in a world economy where market players everywhere immediately scrutinize domestic monetary, financial or fiscal policy decisions and the performance of exchange rate regimes of individual countries. Under these conditions, the room for manoeuvre of policymakers has become considerably constrained. Consequently, it is becoming increasingly complex to incorporate the social dimensions into such policy decisions, to the extent that external analysts consider that authorities are sacrificing sound macroeconomic policies. The main message of the report is that the expediency of short-term economic efficiency as embedded in much of the advice on macroeconomic stability needs to be tempered by long-term development objectives. The report starts with a short historical background which describes the ascendancy of macroeconomic policies over social development policies (chapter I). It continues with an evaluation of the relation between macroeconomic consistency and social effort (chapter II), and the importance of sustainable and stable growth for social progress (chapter III). The report then turns to the need for an equity-enhancing growth strategy (chapter IV) and an analysis of the priorities of social policies in an integrated approach to growth (chapter V). The final chapter adds some final institutional remarks.

Water stable oxygen isotope records from six Antarctic ice core sites for the present and last interglacial periods

We compare the present and last interglacial periods as recorded in Antarctic water stable isotope records now available at various temporal resolutions from six East Antarctic ice cores: Vostok, Taylor Dome, EPICA Dome C (EDC), EPICA Dronning Maud Land (EDML), Dome Fuji and the recent TALDICE ice core from Talos Dome. We first review the different modern site characteristics in terms of ice flow, meteorological conditions, precipitation intermittency and moisture origin, as depicted by meteorological data, atmospheric reanalyses and Lagrangian moisture source diagnostics. These different factors can indeed alter the relationships between temperature and water stable isotopes. Using five records with sufficient resolution on the EDC3 age scale, common features are quantified through principal component analyses. Consistent with instrumental records and atmospheric model results, the ice core data depict rather coherent and homogenous patterns in East Antarctica during the last two interglacials. Across the East Antarctic plateau, regional differences, with respect to the common East Antarctic signal, appear to have similar patterns during the current and last interglacials. We identify two abrupt shifts in isotopic records during the glacial inception at TALDICE and EDML, likely caused by regional sea ice expansion. These regional differences are discussed in terms of moisture origin and in terms of past changes in local elevation histories, which are compared to ice sheet model results. Our results suggest that elevation changes may contribute significantly to inter-site differences. These elevation changes may be underestimated by current ice sheet models

Crisis management and risk communication: Why the food industry must get it right

There is public unease about food-related issues including food additives, food poisoning bacteria and GM ingredients. The public wants evidence of no risks, but all regulators can ever offer is no evidence of risk or evidence of a very small risk. The situation is complex because experts and non-experts can perceive the same risk in vastly different ways. The way in which the food industry manages crises and communicates risks will determine the public acceptance and success of new technologies such as GM foods and nanomaterials. There is a need for the food industry (including regulators and scientific experts) to sharpen up their risk communication skills to ensure that technical innovations are accepted by consumers, and crises such as food recalls do not undermine the public's confidence in the food industry. The AIFST has a key role to play in driving the risk communication process and allaying public unease about food-related issues.

The grip of personalization in adult social care:between managerial domination and fantasy

This paper examines the 'ideological grip' of personalization. It does so empirically, tracking the trajectory of personalization through austerity budgeting in one English local authority. In this case, personalization continued to signify hope and liberation even though the most draconian cuts in the Council's history effectively rendered personalization a practical impossibility. This requires critical theorization. Two bodies of theory are interrogated. First Boltanski's sociology of critique, and, in particular, his notion of managerial domination illuminate the way in which change imperatives and crises come to cement ideological formations. Here it is argued that the articulation of personalization with transformation lends itself to managerial domination. It is further argued, though, that while institutional actors may be able to manipulate the symbolic to evade, what Boltanski terms, deconstructionist critique, this cannot entirely explain the hold of this particular discourse. Here, the Lacanian concept of enjoyment is deployed to interrogate its extra-symbolic function and fantasmatic form. Finally, the paper explores the political implications of such affective attachment and, in particular, the guarantee that personalization offers in a period of welfare state decline. © The Author(s) 2012.

Coal-fired Power Plants with Flexible Amine-based CCS and Co-located Wind Power: Environmental, Economic and Reliability Outcomes

Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) technologies provide a means to significantly reduce carbon emissions from the existing fleet of fossil-fired plants, and hence can facilitate a gradual transition from conventional to more sustainable sources of electric power. This is especially relevant for coal plants that have a CO2 emission rate that is roughly two times higher than that of natural gas plants. Of the different kinds of CCS technology available, post-combustion amine based CCS is the best developed and hence more suitable for retrofitting an existing coal plant. The high costs from operating CCS could be reduced by enabling flexible operation through amine storage or allowing partial capture of CO2 during high electricity prices. This flexibility is also found to improve the power plant’s ramp capability, enabling it to offset the intermittency of renewable power sources. This thesis proposes a solution to problems associated with two promising technologies for decarbonizing the electric power system: the high costs of the energy penalty of CCS, and the intermittency and non-dispatchability of wind power. It explores the economic and technical feasibility of a hybrid system consisting of a coal plant retrofitted with a post-combustion-amine based CCS system equipped with the option to perform partial capture or amine storage, and a co-located wind farm. A techno-economic assessment of the performance of the hybrid system is carried out both from the perspective of the stakeholders (utility owners, investors, etc.) as well as that of the power system operator.

In order to perform the assessment from the perspective of the facility owners (e.g., electric power utilities, independent power producers), an optimal design and operating strategy of the hybrid system is determined for both the amine storage and partial capture configurations. A linear optimization model is developed to determine the optimal component sizes for the hybrid system and capture rates while meeting constraints on annual average emission targets of CO2, and variability of the combined power output. Results indicate that there are economic benefits of flexible operation relative to conventional CCS, and demonstrate that the hybrid system could operate as an energy storage system: providing an effective pathway for wind power integration as well as a mechanism to mute the variability of intermittent wind power.

In order to assess the performance of the hybrid system from the perspective of the system operator, a modified Unit Commitment/ Economic Dispatch model is built to consider and represent the techno-economic aspects of operation of the hybrid system within a power grid. The hybrid system is found to be effective in helping the power system meet an average CO2 emissions limit equivalent to the CO2 emission rate of a state-of-the-art natural gas plant, and to reduce power system operation costs and number of instances and magnitude of energy and reserve scarcity.

Measurement and Simulation of Suppression Effects in a Buoyant Turbulent Line Fire

An experimental and numerical study of turbulent fire suppression is presented. For this work, a novel and canonical facility has been developed, featuring a buoyant, turbulent, methane or propane-fueled diffusion flame suppressed via either nitrogen dilution of the oxidizer or application of a fine water mist. Flames are stabilized on a slot burner surrounded by a co-flowing oxidizer, which allows controlled delivery of either suppressant to achieve a range of conditions from complete combustion through partial and total flame quenching. A minimal supply of pure oxygen is optionally applied along the burner to provide a strengthened flame base that resists liftoff extinction and permits the study of substantially weakened turbulent flames. The carefully designed facility features well-characterized inlet and boundary conditions that are especially amenable to numerical simulation. Non-intrusive diagnostics provide detailed measurements of suppression behavior, yielding insight into the governing suppression processes, and aiding the development and validation of advanced suppression models. Diagnostics include oxidizer composition analysis to determine suppression potential, flame imaging to quantify visible flame structure, luminous and radiative emissions measurements to assess sooting propensity and heat losses, and species-based calorimetry to evaluate global heat release and combustion efficiency. The studied flames experience notable suppression effects, including transition in color from bright yellow to dim blue, expansion in flame height and structural intermittency, and reduction in radiative heat emissions. Still, measurements indicate that the combustion efficiency remains close to unity, and only near the extinction limit do the flames experience an abrupt transition from nearly complete combustion to total extinguishment. Measurements are compared with large eddy simulation results obtained using the Fire Dynamics Simulator, an open-source computational fluid dynamics software package. Comparisons of experimental and simulated results are used to evaluate the performance of available models in predicting fire suppression. Simulations in the present configuration highlight the issue of spurious reignition that is permitted by the classical eddy-dissipation concept for modeling turbulent combustion. To address this issue, simple treatments to prevent spurious reignition are developed and implemented. Simulations incorporating these treatments are shown to produce excellent agreement with the experimentally measured data, including the global combustion efficiency.

Modelagem da dispersão de odores em ambientes urbanos

O presente trabalho investigou o problema da modelagem da dispersão de compostos odorantes em presença de obstáculos (cúbicos e com forma complexa) sob condição de estabilidade atmosférica neutra. Foi empregada modelagem numérica baseada nas equações de transporte (CFD1) bem como em modelos algébricos baseados na pluma Gausseana (AERMOD2, CALPUFF3 e FPM4). Para a validação dos resultados dos modelos e a avaliação do seu desempenho foram empregados dados de experimentos em túnel de vento e em campo. A fim de incluir os efeitos da turbulência atmosférica na dispersão, dois diferentes modelos de sub-malha associados à Simulação das Grandes Escalas (LES5) foram investigados (Smagorinsky dinâmico e WALE6) e, para a inclusão dos efeitos de obstáculos na dispersão nos modelos Gausseanos, foi empregado o modelo PRIME7. O uso do PRIME também foi proposto para o FPM como uma inovação. De forma geral, os resultados indicam que o uso de CFD/LES é uma ferramenta útil para a investigação da dispersão e o impacto de compostos odorantes em presença de obstáculos e também para desenvolvimento dos modelos Gausseanos. Os resultados também indicam que o modelo FPM proposto, com a inclusão dos efeitos do obstáculo baseado no PRIME também é uma ferramenta muito útil em modelagem da dispersão de odores devido à sua simplicidade e fácil configuração quando comparado a modelos mais complexos como CFD e mesmo os modelos regulatórios AERMOD e CALPUFF. A grande vantagem do FPM é a possibilidade de estimar-se o fator de intermitência e a relação pico-média (P/M), parâmetros úteis para a avaliação do impacto de odores. Os resultados obtidos no presente trabalho indicam que a determinação dos parâmetros de dispersão para os segmentos de pluma, bem como os parâmetros de tempo longo nas proximidades da fonte e do obstáculo no modelo FPM pode ser melhorada e simulações CFD podem ser usadas como uma ferramenta de desenvolvimento para este propósito. Palavras chave: controle de odor, dispersão, fluidodinâmica computacional, modelagem matemática, modelagem gaussiana de pluma flutuante, simulação de grandes vórtices (LES).

A hybrid PSO-ANFIS approach for short-term wind power prediction in Portugal

The increased integration of wind power into the electric grid, as nowadays occurs in Portugal, poses new challenges due to its intermittency and volatility. Wind power prediction plays a key role in tackling these challenges. The contribution of this paper is to propose a new hybrid approach, combining particle swarm optimization and adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference system, for short-term wind power prediction in Portugal. Significant improvements regarding forecasting accuracy are attainable using the proposed approach, in comparison with the results obtained with five other approaches.

An artificial neural network approach for short-term wind power forecasting in Portugal

This paper presents an artificial neural network approach for short-term wind power forecasting in Portugal. The increased integration of wind power into the electric grid, as nowadays occurs in Portugal, poses new challenges due to its intermittency and volatility. Hence, good forecasting tools play a key role in tackling these challenges. The accuracy of the wind power forecasting attained with the proposed approach is evaluated against persistence and ARIMA approaches, reporting the numerical results from a real-world case study.

Application of adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference for wind power short-term forecasting

The increased integration of wind power into the electric grid, as nowadays occurs in Portugal, poses new challenges due to its intermittency and volatility. Hence, good forecasting tools play a key role in tackling these challenges. In this paper, an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference approach is proposed for short-term wind power forecasting. Results from a real-world case study are presented. A thorough comparison is carried out, taking into account the results obtained with other approaches. Numerical results are presented and conclusions are duly drawn. (C) 2011 Institute of Electrical Engineers of Japan. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

Multidimensional scaling analysis of the dynamics of a country economy

This paper analyzes the Portuguese short-run business cycles over the last 150 years and presents the multidimensional scaling (MDS) for visualizing the results. The analytical and numerical assessment of this long-run perspective reveals periods with close connections between the macroeconomic variables related to government accounts equilibrium, balance of payments equilibrium, and economic growth. The MDS method is adopted for a quantitative statistical analysis. In this way, similarity clusters of several historical periods emerge in the MDS maps, namely, in identifying similarities and dissimilarities that identify periods of prosperity and crises, growth, and stagnation. Such features are major aspects of collective national achievement, to which can be associated the impact of international problems such as the World Wars, the Great Depression, or the current global financial crisis, as well as national events in the context of broad political blueprints for the Portuguese society in the rising globalization process.

Competências a potenciar: novas formas de agir na construção do conhecimento

No âmbito duma investigação que cruza a área científica da Ciência da Informação com a Educação, elegendo como objeto de estudo a Literacia da Informação (LI), selecionaram-se um conjunto de competências de LI, reconhecidas como mais importantes e mencionadas em vasta literatura sobre o tema, com destaque para alguns Referenciais internacionais. Pretende-se averiguar qual o papel da formação ministrada em diferentes licenciaturas de uma escola de ensino superior politécnico e refletir sobre que competências são mais desenvolvidas nos estudantes de diferentes cursos, comparando aqueles que iniciam e os que terminam a sua formação. Para além dos estudantes, destaca-se, neste estudo, a intervenção dos professores das referidas licenciaturas, ambos os grupos inquiridos através de questionários online. Também os elementos responsáveis pela coordenação dos oito cursos de primeiro ciclo em análise e a bibliotecária da instituição são envolvidos, neste caso, através de entrevistas semidirigidas, contribuindo para uma investigação que se pretende o mais completa possível e com a robustez decorrente do cruzamento de vários dados. Recorrendo a uma abordagem metodológica quantitativa e qualitativa, num interessante jogo de perceções consonantes ou divergentes entre estes atores cruciais do processo educativo, os resultados e a sua interpretação permitem refletir sobre a necessidade de adotar novas posturas e atuações no complexo processo de formação e de desenvolvimento de competências de LI. Estas devem ser adequadas aos perfis desejáveis dos diplomados do ensino superior, profissionais e cidadãos que se pretende que obtenham sucesso nas diferentes áreas da sua vida, revelando-se, em suma, indivíduos infoincluídos, ativos e participativos face às mudanças, desafios e crises do século XXI.