Investment incentives and valuation of power sector infrastructure assets with increasing interconnection, intermittency and decarbonisation

This dissertation applies a variety of quantitative methods to electricity and carbon market data, utility company accounts data, capital and operating costs to analyse some of the challenges associated with investment in energy assets. In particular, three distinct research topics are analysed within this general theme: the efficiency of interconnector trading, the optimal sizing of intermittent wind facilities and the impact of carbon pricing on the cost of capital for investors are researched in successive sections.

Intermittency, quasiperiodicity and chaos in probe-induced ferroelectric domain switching

Memristive materials and devices, which enable information storage and processing on one and the same physical platform, offer an alternative to conventional von Neumann computation architectures. Their continuous spectra of states with intricate field-history dependence give rise to complex dynamics, the spatial aspect of which has not been studied in detail yet. Here, we demonstrate that ferroelectric domain switching induced by a scanning probe microscopy tip exhibits rich pattern dynamics, including intermittency, quasiperiodicity and chaos. These effects are due to the interplay between tip-induced polarization switching and screening charge dynamics, and can be mapped onto the logistic map. Our findings may have implications for ferroelectric storage, nanostructure fabrication and transistor-less logic.

Periodic compression of an adiabatic gas: Intermittency-enhanced Fermi acceleration

A gas of non-interacting particles diffuses in a lattice of pulsating scatterers. In the finite-horizon case with bounded distance between collisions and strongly chaotic dynamics, the velocity growth (Fermi acceleration) is well described by a master equation, leading to an asymptotic universal non-Maxwellian velocity distribution scaling as v∼t. The infinite-horizon case has intermittent dynamics which enhances the acceleration, leading to v∼t ln t and a non-universal distribution. © Copyright EPLA, 2013.

Intermittency reinjection probability density function with and without noise effects.

Intermittency phenomenon is a continuous route from regular to chaotic behaviour. Intermittency is an occurrence of a signal that alternates chaotic bursts between quasi-regular periods called laminar phases, driven by the so called reinjection probability density function (RPD). In this paper is introduced a new technique to obtain the RPD for type-II and III intermittency. The new RPD is more general than the classical one and includes the classical RPD as a particular case. The probabilities of the laminar length, the average laminar lengths and the characteristic relations are determined with and without lower bound of the reinjection in agreement with numerical simulations. Finally, it is analyzed the noise effect in intermittency. A method to obtain the noisy RPD is developed extending the procedure used in the noiseless case. The analytical results show a good agreement with numerical simulations.

Wind intermittency and CO2 reductions: the case of the spanish power system

Renewable energy sources are believed to reduce drastically greenhouse gas emissions that would otherwise be generated from fossil fuels used to generate electricity. This implies that a unit of renewable energy will replace a unit of fossil-fuel, with its CO2 emissions, on an equivalent basis (with no other effects on the grid). But, the fuel economy and emissions in the existing power systems are not proportional with the electricity production of intermittent sources due to cycling of the fossil fuel plants that make up the balance of the grid (i.e. changing the power output makes thermal units to operate less efficiently). This study focuses in the interactions between wind generation and thermal plants cycling, by establishing the levels of extra fuel use caused by decreased efficiencies of fossil back-up for wind electricity in Spain. We analyze the production of all thermal plants in 2011, studying different scenarios where wind penetration causes major deviations in programming, while we define a procedure for quantifying the carbon reductions by using emission factors and efficiency curves from the existing installations. The objectives are to discuss the real contributions of renewable energies to the environmental targets as well as suggest alternatives that would improve the reliability of future power systems.

Horizontal visibility graphs generated by type-I intermittency

The type-I intermittency route to (or out of) chaos is investigated within the horizontal visibility (HV) graph theory. For that purpose, we address the trajectories generated by unimodal maps close to an inverse tangent bifurcation and construct their associatedHVgraphs.We showhowthe alternation of laminar episodes and chaotic bursts imprints a fingerprint in the resulting graph structure. Accordingly, we derive a phenomenological theory that predicts quantitative values for several network parameters. In particular, we predict that the characteristic power-law scaling of the mean length of laminar trend sizes is fully inherited by the variance of the graph degree distribution, in good agreement with the numerics. We also report numerical evidence on how the characteristic power-law scaling of the Lyapunov exponent as a function of the distance to the tangent bifurcation is inherited in the graph by an analogous scaling of block entropy functionals defined on the graph. Furthermore, we are able to recast the full set of HV graphs generated by intermittent dynamics into a renormalization-group framework, where the fixed points of its graph-theoretical renormalization-group flow account for the different types of dynamics.We also establish that the nontrivial fixed point of this flow coincides with the tangency condition and that the corresponding invariant graph exhibits extremal entropic properties.

Theory of intermittency applied to classical pathological cases

The classical theory of intermittency developed for return maps assumes uniform density of points reinjected from the chaotic to laminar region. Though it works fine in some model systems, there exist a number of so-called pathological cases characterized by a significant deviation of main characteristics from the values predicted on the basis of the uniform distribution. Recently, we reported on how the reinjection probability density (RPD) can be generalized. Here, we extend this methodology and apply it to different dynamical systems exhibiting anomalous type-II and type-III intermittencies. Estimation of the universal RPD is based on fitting a linear function to experimental data and requires no a priori knowledge on the dynamical model behind. We provide special fitting procedure that enables robust estimation of the RPD from relatively short data sets (dozens of points). Thus, the method is applicable for a wide variety of data sets including numerical simulations and real-life experiments. Estimated RPD enables analytic evaluation of the length of the laminar phase of intermittent behaviors. We show that the method copes well with dynamical systems exhibiting significantly different statistics reported in the literature. We also derive and classify characteristic relations between the mean laminar length and main controlling parameter in perfect agreement with data provided by numerical simulations

Type-I intermittency with discontinuous reinjection probability density in a truncation model of the derivative nonlinear Schrödinger equation

In previous papers, the type-I intermittent phenomenon with continuous reinjection probability density (RPD) has been extensively studied. However, in this paper type-I intermittency considering discontinuous RPD function in one-dimensional maps is analyzed. To carry out the present study the analytic approximation presented by del Río and Elaskar (Int. J. Bifurc. Chaos 20:1185-1191, 2010) and Elaskar et al. (Physica A. 390:2759-2768, 2011) is extended to consider discontinuous RPD functions. The results of this analysis show that the characteristic relation only depends on the position of the lower bound of reinjection (LBR), therefore for the LBR below the tangent point the relation {Mathematical expression}, where {Mathematical expression} is the control parameter, remains robust regardless the form of the RPD, although the average of the laminar phases {Mathematical expression} can change. Finally, the study of discontinuous RPD for type-I intermittency which occurs in a three-wave truncation model for the derivative nonlinear Schrodinger equation is presented. In all tests the theoretical results properly verify the numerical data

Origin of scale-free intermittency in structural first-order phase transitions

16 pages, 22 figures

Bispectral and trispectral characterization of transition to chaos in the Duffing oscillator

Higher-order spectral (bispectral and trispectral) analyses of numerical solutions of the Duffing equation with a cubic stiffness are used to isolate the coupling between the triads and quartets, respectively, of nonlinearly interacting Fourier components of the system. The Duffing oscillator follows a period-doubling intermittency catastrophic route to chaos. For period-doubled limit cycles, higher-order spectra indicate that both quadratic and cubic nonlinear interactions are important to the dynamics. However, when the Duffing oscillator becomes chaotic, global behavior of the cubic nonlinearity becomes dominant and quadratic nonlinear interactions are weak, while cubic interactions remain strong. As the nonlinearity of the system is increased, the number of excited Fourier components increases, eventually leading to broad-band power spectra for chaos. The corresponding higher-order spectra indicate that although some individual nonlinear interactions weaken as nonlinearity increases, the number of nonlinearly interacting Fourier modes increases. Trispectra indicate that the cubic interactions gradually evolve from encompassing a few quartets of Fourier components for period-1 motion to encompassing many quartets for chaos. For chaos, all the components within the energetic part of the power spectrum are cubically (but not quadratically) coupled to each other.

Long term transmission planning to meet renewable energy targets in Australia

Australia is rich in renewable energy resources such as wind, solar and geothermal. Geographical diversity of these renewable resources combined with developing climate change policies poses a great challenge for the long term interconnection planning. Intermittency of wind and solar potentially driving the development of new transmission lines bring additional complexity to power system operations and planning. This paper provides an overview of generation and transmission planning studies in Australia to meet 20% renewable energy target by 2020. Appraisal of the effectiveness of dispersed energy storage, non schedulable peaking plants, wide area controls and demand management techniques to aid the penetration of renewables is presented in this paper

Security constrained economic dispatch considering wind energy conversion systems

The available wind power is stochastic and requires appropriate tools in the OPF model for economic and reliable power system operation. This paper exhibit the OPF formulation with factors involved in the intermittency of wind power. Weibull distribution is adopted to find the stochastic wind speed and power distribution. The reserve requirement is evaluated based on the wind distribution and risk of under/over estimation of the wind power. In addition, the Wind Energy Conversion System (WECS) is represented by Doubly Fed Induction Generator (DFIG) based wind farms. The reactive power capability for DFIG based wind farm is also analyzed. The study is performed on IEEE-30 bus system with wind farm located at different buses and with different wind profiles. Also the reactive power capacity to be installed in the wind farm to maintain a satisfactory voltage profile under the various wind flow scenario is demonstrated.

Mixing and dispersion of pollutants emitted from an outboard motor

This paper quantifies the mixing and dispersion from an outboard motor by field experiments in a small subtropical waterway. Organic dye was used as a surrogate for exhaust emissions and was mixed with uncontaminated creek water before being dispersed into the creek. Dye concentrations were measured with an array of concentration probes stationed in the creek. The data were then processed and fitted with a power law function. The corresponding dispersion constants agreed well with the literature. However, the amplitude was lower than the IMO equation but higher than the correlation from laboratory tests. Results for dye concentration intermittency (presence of dye) are presented for the first time from such field measurements and show significant mixing in-homogeneity.

Storage - the necessity for a Smart-Grid

Energy policy is driving renewable energy deployment with most of the developed countries having some form of renewable energy portfolio standard and emissions reduction target. To deliver upon these ambitious targets, those renewable energy technologies that are commercially available, such as wind and solar, are being deployed, but inherently have issues with intermittency of supply. To overcome these issues, storage options will need to be introduced into the distribution network with benefits for both demand management and power systems quality. How this can be utilised most effectively within the distribution network will allow for an even greater proportion of our energy demand to be met through renewable resources and meet the aspirational targets set. The distribution network will become a network of smart-grids, but to work efficiently and effectively, power quality issues surrounding intermittency must be overcome, with storage being a major factor in this solution.

Integrating PV systems into distribution networks with battery energy storage systems

Integrating Photovoltaic (PV) systems with battery energy storage in the distribution network will be essential to allow for continued uptake of domestic PV system installations. With increasing concerns regarding environmental and climate change issues, incorporating sources of renewable energy into power networks across the world will be key for a sustainable future. Australia is well placed to utilise solar energy as a significant component of its future energy generation and within the last 5 years there has been a rapid growth in the penetration levels seen by the grid. This growth of PV systems is causing a number of issues including intermittency of supply, negative power flow and voltage rises. Using the simulator tool GridLAB-D with a model of a typical South-East Queensland (SEQ) 11 kV distribution feeder, the effect of various configurations of PV systems have been offset with Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS). From this, combinations of PV and storage that are most effective at mitigating the issues were explored.