A combined analysis of the short-term effects of photochemical air pollutants on mortality within the EMECAM project.

In recent years, some epidemiologic studies have attributed adverse effects of air pollutants on health not only to particles and sulfur dioxide but also to photochemical air pollutants (nitrogen dioxide and ozone). The effects are usually small, leading to some inconsistencies in the results of the studies. Furthermore, the different methodologic approaches of the studies used has made it difficult to derive generic conclusions. We provide here a quantitative summary of the short-term effects of photochemical air pollutants on mortality in seven Spanish cities involved in the EMECAM project, using generalized additive models from analyses of single and multiple pollutants. Nitrogen dioxide and ozone data were provided by seven EMECAM cities (Barcelona, Gijón, Huelva, Madrid, Oviedo, Seville, and Valencia). Mortality indicators included daily total mortality from all causes excluding external causes, daily cardiovascular mortality, and daily respiratory mortality. Individual estimates, obtained from city-specific generalized additive Poisson autoregressive models, were combined by means of fixed effects models and, if significant heterogeneity among local estimates was found, also by random effects models. Significant positive associations were found between daily mortality (all causes and cardiovascular) and NO(2), once the rest of air pollutants were taken into account. A 10 microg/m(3) increase in the 24-hr average 1-day NO(2)level was associated with an increase in the daily number of deaths of 0.43% [95% confidence interval (CI), -0.003-0.86%] for all causes excluding external. In the case of significant relationships, relative risks for cause-specific mortality were nearly twice as much as that for total mortality for all the photochemical pollutants. Ozone was independently related only to cardiovascular daily mortality. No independent statistically significant relationship between photochemical air pollutants and respiratory mortality was found. The results in this study suggest that, given the present levels of photochemical pollutants, people living in Spanish cities are exposed to health risks derived from air pollution.

Occupational sex-composition and earnings : individual and social effects

This paper investigates the micro and macro-level factors affecting the empirical association between occupational sex-composition and individual earnings. This is done in two analytical steps using data from the second round of the European Social Survey. In a first step, country-fixed-effects regressions are used to test the extent to which job-specialization, gender attitudes and the relative supply of domestic work can account for the impact of occupational sex-composition on earnings. In accordance with previous research, it is found that all these micro-level variables have a significant effect on the analyzed association, yet only job-specialization can explain it away by itself. In a second analytical step, macro-level interactions are tested under the hypothesis that defamilialization policies reduce the pay-offs of sphere specialization by sex, generating incentives for all types of women to invest in the labor market. Empirical results suggest that gender attitudes and the relative supply of housework are much more loosely associated to earning in social-democratic and former communist societies than in conservative or liberal regimes. This finding is interpreted as consistent with the defamilialization hypothesis.

On the performance of small-area estimators: Fixed vs. random area parameters

Most methods for small-area estimation are based on composite estimators derived from design- or model-based methods. A composite estimator is a linear combination of a direct and an indirect estimator with weights that usually depend on unknown parameters which need to be estimated. Although model-based small-area estimators are usually based on random-effects models, the assumption of fixed effects is at face value more appropriate.Model-based estimators are justified by the assumption of random (interchangeable) area effects; in practice, however, areas are not interchangeable. In the present paper we empirically assess the quality of several small-area estimators in the setting in which the area effects are treated as fixed. We consider two settings: one that draws samples from a theoretical population, and another that draws samples from an empirical population of a labor force register maintained by the National Institute of Social Security (NISS) of Catalonia. We distinguish two types of composite estimators: a) those that use weights that involve area specific estimates of bias and variance; and, b) those that use weights that involve a common variance and a common squared bias estimate for all the areas. We assess their precision and discuss alternatives to optimizing composite estimation in applications.

Agglomeration-effects in Europe

The paper estimates agglomeration-effects for France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the UK. Estimation takes into account endogeneity of the spatial distribution ofemployment and spatial fixed-effects. Empirical resultssuggest that agglomeration-effects in these Europeancountries are only slightly smaller than agglomeration-effects in the US: the estimated elasticity of average-labor-productivity with respect to employment-density is 4.5 percent compared to 5 percent in the US.

Genome-wide association analysis identifies variants associated with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease that have distinct effects on metabolic traits.

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) clusters in families, but the only known common genetic variants influencing risk are near PNPLA3. We sought to identify additional genetic variants influencing NAFLD using genome-wide association (GWA) analysis of computed tomography (CT) measured hepatic steatosis, a non-invasive measure of NAFLD, in large population based samples. Using variance components methods, we show that CT hepatic steatosis is heritable (∼26%-27%) in family-based Amish, Family Heart, and Framingham Heart Studies (n = 880 to 3,070). By carrying out a fixed-effects meta-analysis of genome-wide association (GWA) results between CT hepatic steatosis and ∼2.4 million imputed or genotyped SNPs in 7,176 individuals from the Old Order Amish, Age, Gene/Environment Susceptibility-Reykjavik study (AGES), Family Heart, and Framingham Heart Studies, we identify variants associated at genome-wide significant levels (p<5×10(-8)) in or near PNPLA3, NCAN, and PPP1R3B. We genotype these and 42 other top CT hepatic steatosis-associated SNPs in 592 subjects with biopsy-proven NAFLD from the NASH Clinical Research Network (NASH CRN). In comparisons with 1,405 healthy controls from the Myocardial Genetics Consortium (MIGen), we observe significant associations with histologic NAFLD at variants in or near NCAN, GCKR, LYPLAL1, and PNPLA3, but not PPP1R3B. Variants at these five loci exhibit distinct patterns of association with serum lipids, as well as glycemic and anthropometric traits. We identify common genetic variants influencing CT-assessed steatosis and risk of NAFLD. Hepatic steatosis associated variants are not uniformly associated with NASH/fibrosis or result in abnormalities in serum lipids or glycemic and anthropometric traits, suggesting genetic heterogeneity in the pathways influencing these traits.

Designs and model effects definitions in the initial stage of a plant breeding program

The objective of this work was to compare the relative efficiency of initial selection and genetic parameter estimation, using augmented blocks design (ABD), augmented blocks twice replicated design (DABD) and group of randomised block design experiments with common treatments (ERBCT), by simulations, considering fixed effect model and mixed model with regular treatment effects as random. For the simulations, eight different conditions (scenarios) were considered. From the 600 simulations in each scenario, the mean percentage selection coincidence, the Pearsons´s correlation estimates between adjusted means for the fixed effects model, and the heritability estimates for the mixed model were evaluated. DABD and ERBCT were very similar in their comparisons and slightly superior to ABD. Considering the initial stages of selection in a plant breeding program, ABD is a good alternative for selecting superior genotypes, although none of the designs had been effective to estimate heritability in all the different scenarios evaluated.

Interviewer and Respondent Survey Quality Effects in a CATI Panel

Especially in panel surveys, respondent attrition, respondent learning, and interviewer experience effects play a crucial role with respect to data quality. We examine three interview survey quality indicators in the same survey in a cross sectional as well as in a longitudinal way. In the cross sectional analysis we compare data quality in the mature original sample with that in a refreshment sample, surveyed in the same wave. Because in the same wave an interviewer survey was conducted, collecting attitudes on their socio demography, survey attitudes and burden measures, we are able to consider interviewer fixed effects as well. The longitudinal analysis gives more insight in the respondent learning effects with respect to the quality indicators considered by considering the very same respondents across waves. The Swiss Household Panel, a CATI survey representative of the Swiss residential population, forms an ideal modelling database: the interviewer - respondent assignment is random, both within and across waves. This design avoids possible confusion with other effects stemming from a non-random assignment of interviewers, e.g. area effects or effects from assigning the best interviewers to the hard cases. In order to separate interviewer, respondent and wave effects, we build cross-classified multilevel models.

Effects of bank supervision and regulation on bank risk

In the last few decades, banking has strongly internationalized and become more complex. Hence, bank supervision and regulation has taken global perspective, too. The most important international regulation are the Basel frameworks by the Basel committee on banking supervision. This study examines the effects of bank supervision and regulation, especially the Basel II, on bank risk and risk-taking. In order to separate and recognize the efficiency of these effects, the co-effects of many supervisory and regulatory tools together with other relevant factors must be taken into account. The focus of the study is on the effects of asymmetric information and banking procyclicality on the efficiency of the Basel II. This study tries to find an answer, if the Basel II, implemented in 2008, has decreased bank risk in banks of European Union member states. This study examines empirically, if the volatility on bank stock returns have changed after the implementation of the Basel II. Panel data consists of 62 bank stock returns, bank-specific variables, economic variables and variables concerning regulatory environment between 2003 and 2011. Fixed effects regression is used for panel data analysis. Results indicate that volatility on bank stock returns has increased after 2008 and the implementation of the Basel II. Result is statistically very significant and robustness has been verified in different model specifications. The result of this study contradicts with the goal of the Basel II about banking system stability. Banking procyclicality and wrong incentives for regulatory arbitrage under asymmetric information explained in theoretical part may explain this result. On the other hand, simultaneously with the implementation of the Basel II, the global financial crisis emerged and caused severe losses in banks and increased stock volatility. However, it is clear that supervision and regulation was unable to prevent the global financial crisis. After the financial crisis, supervision and regulation have been reformed globally. The main problems of the Basel II, examined in the theoretical part, have been recognized in order to prevent problems of procyclicality and wrong incentives in the future.

Approximation de la distribution a posteriori d'un modèle Gamma-Poisson hiérarchique à effets mixtes

La méthode que nous présentons pour modéliser des données dites de "comptage" ou données de Poisson est basée sur la procédure nommée Modélisation multi-niveau et interactive de la régression de Poisson (PRIMM) développée par Christiansen et Morris (1997). Dans la méthode PRIMM, la régression de Poisson ne comprend que des effets fixes tandis que notre modèle intègre en plus des effets aléatoires. De même que Christiansen et Morris (1997), le modèle étudié consiste à faire de l'inférence basée sur des approximations analytiques des distributions a posteriori des paramètres, évitant ainsi d'utiliser des méthodes computationnelles comme les méthodes de Monte Carlo par chaînes de Markov (MCMC). Les approximations sont basées sur la méthode de Laplace et la théorie asymptotique liée à l'approximation normale pour les lois a posteriori. L'estimation des paramètres de la régression de Poisson est faite par la maximisation de leur densité a posteriori via l'algorithme de Newton-Raphson. Cette étude détermine également les deux premiers moments a posteriori des paramètres de la loi de Poisson dont la distribution a posteriori de chacun d'eux est approximativement une loi gamma. Des applications sur deux exemples de données ont permis de vérifier que ce modèle peut être considéré dans une certaine mesure comme une généralisation de la méthode PRIMM. En effet, le modèle s'applique aussi bien aux données de Poisson non stratifiées qu'aux données stratifiées; et dans ce dernier cas, il comporte non seulement des effets fixes mais aussi des effets aléatoires liés aux strates. Enfin, le modèle est appliqué aux données relatives à plusieurs types d'effets indésirables observés chez les participants d'un essai clinique impliquant un vaccin quadrivalent contre la rougeole, les oreillons, la rub\'eole et la varicelle. La régression de Poisson comprend l'effet fixe correspondant à la variable traitement/contrôle, ainsi que des effets aléatoires liés aux systèmes biologiques du corps humain auxquels sont attribués les effets indésirables considérés.

Combined Analysis of the Short-Term Effects of Photochemical Air Pollutants on Mortality within the EMECAM Project

In recent years, some epidemiologic studies have attributed adverse effects of air pollutants on health not only to particles and sulfur dioxide but also to photochemical air pollutants (nitrogen dioxide and ozone). The effects are usually small, leading to some inconsistencies in the results of the studies. Furthermore, the different methodologic approaches of the studies used has made it difficult to derive generic conclusions. We provide here a quantitative summary of the short-term effects of photochemical air pollutants on mortality in seven Spanish cities involved in the EMECAM project, using generalized additive models from analyses of single and multiple pollutants. Nitrogen dioxide and ozone data were provided by seven EMECAM cities (Barcelona, Gijón, Huelva, Madrid, Oviedo, Seville, and Valencia). Mortality indicators included daily total mortality from all causes excluding external causes, daily cardiovascular mortality, and daily respiratory mortality. Individual estimates, obtained from city-specific generalized additive Poisson autoregressive models, were combined by means of fixed effects models and, if significant heterogeneity among local estimates was found, also by random effects models. Significant positive associations were found between daily mortality (all causes and cardiovascular) and NO2, once the rest of air pollutants were taken into account. A 10 μg/m3 increase in the 24-hr average 1-day NO2 level was associated with an increase in the daily number of deaths of 0.43% [95% confidence interval(CI), –0.003–0.86%] for all causes excluding external. In the case of significant relationships, relative risks for cause-specific mortality were nearly twice as much as that for total mortality for all the photochemical pollutants. Ozone was independently related only to cardiovascular daily mortality. No independent statistically significant relationship between photochemical air pollutants and respiratory mortality was found. The results in this study suggest that, given the present levels of photochemical pollutants, people living in Spanish cities are exposed to health risks derived from air pollution

Mandatory and voluntary information disclosure and the effects on financial analysts: evidence from China

Purpose – This paper aims to make a comparison, different from existing literature solely focusing on voluntary earnings forecasts and ex post earnings surprise, between the effects of mandatory earnings surprise warnings and voluntary information disclosure issued by management teams on financial analysts in terms of the number of followings and the accuracy of earnings forecasts. Design/methodology/approach – This paper uses panel data analysis with fixed effects on data collected from Chinese public firms between 2006 and 2010. It uses an exogenous regulation enforcement to minimise the endogeneity problem. Findings – This paper finds that financial analysts are less likely to follow firms which mandatorily issue earnings surprise warnings ex ante than those voluntarily issue earnings forecasts. Moreover, ex post, they issue less accurate and more dispersed forecasts on former firms. The results support Brown et al.’s (2009) finding in the USA and suggest that the earnings surprise warnings affect information asymmetries. Practical implications – This paper justifies the mandatory earnings surprise warnings policy issued by Chinese Securities Regulatory Commission in 2006. Originality/value – Mandatory earnings surprise is a unique practical regulation for publicly listed firms in China. This paper, for the first time, provides empirical evaluation on the effectiveness of a mandatory information disclosure policy in China. Consistent with existing literature on information disclosure by public firms in other countries, this paper finds that, in China, voluntary information disclosure captures more private information than mandatory information disclosure on corporate earnings ability.

The effects of tax incentives for small firms on employment levels

This paper will examine the effects of tax incentives for small businesses on employment level evaluating a program with this purpose implemented in Brazil in the 1990s. We first develop a theoretical framework which guides both the de nition of the parameters of interest and their identi cation. Selection problems both into the treatment group and into the data sample are tackled by combining fixed effects methods and regression discontinuity design on alternative sub-samples of a longitudinal database of manufacturing firms. The results show that on the one hand the size composition of the treated fi rms may be changed due to the survival of some smaller firms that would have exited had it not been eligible to the program. On the other hand, the treated firms who do not depend on the program to survive do employ more workers.

The effects of adult literacy on earnings and employment

This paper provides evidence of the effects of adult literacy on individuals’ income and employability in Brazil based on information obtained from the monthly employment survey (PME). The OLS results indicate that after controlling for observable characteristics, there is a 21.25% increase in wages for individuals who become literate; however, there is no significant impact on employability. Moreover, the findings show an 8.1% increase in the probability of being employed in the formal sector. We also explore the longitudinal structure of the dataset to control for unobservable fixed characteristics of individuals. The fixed-effects estimators show smaller effects compared to the OLS estimators. We find that literacy has a 4.4% effect on wages and a 4.3% impact on the probability of being formally employed. The effects are significantly different from zero.

Genetic and environmental effects on age at first farrowing in sows in southeastern Brazil

We evaluated genetic and environmental factors affecting age at first farrowing of sows in the Brazilian southeast. For this purpose, 466 observations regarding the age at first farrowing were made for Dalland-C40 (c) animals belonging to two herds. The effects of the environmental factors on this trait were assessed by means of a model that included, as random effects, the influence of the sow's father and mother and, as fixed effects, the influence the year of birth, the herd and the birth season, along with the covariable litter size at birth. The variance components were estimated using the derivative-free restricted maximum likelihood method. The estimated mean was 354.8 +/- 25.87 days, with a coefficient of variation of 7.29%. Significant effects on the trait were observed for the herd, the year and the season of birth; but a linear effect of litter size at birth on the age at first farrowing was not observed. The boar did not significantly contribute to the variation occurring among the sows, whereas the sow's mother caused significant variation. The heritability estimate for the age at first farrowing was 0.44 +/- 0.15, which is considered high. We concluded that herd effect and year and season of birth should be taken into consideration for an accurate genetic comparison; consequently, the animals should be joined into contemporary groups.

Effects of sire breed-grazing system and environmental parameters on the behaviour of beef calves just after birth

Effects of sire breed-grazing system and environmental factors on the first activities of high grade Nellore and crossbred Canchim x Nellore, Angus x Nellore, and Simmental x Nellore calves raised in intensive production systems and high grade Nellore calves raised in an extensive production system, after birth, were studied. During 2 years, 185 calves were observed from birth until the end of first suckling, and the following variables were estimated: duration of maternal attention (cow to calf) during the first 15 min after calving, latency to first attempt to stand up, latency to stand up, latency to first suckling, duration of first suckling and the interval from standing to suckling. Data were analyzed by least squares methods, with models that included fixed effects of year and time of the year of birth (March-April (early autumn) and May-June (late autumn)), sire breed-grazing system (Sy), sex of calf (Se), category of cow (primiparous and pluriparous), time of birth, Sy x Se, year x Sy and year x time of the year interactions and the covariates weight of calf, rainfall, air temperature and relative humidity in the day of birth. Calves born from 6:00 to 8:00 h presented the longest latencies to first stand up (40.3 +/- 5.1 min) and the shortest occur from 14:00 to 16:00 h (15.8 +/- 2.7 min) (P < 0.01). Primiparous cows provided longer attention toward the calf in the first 15 min after birth than pluriparous cows (13.0 +/- 0.7 min versus 11.1 +/- 0.5 min; P < 0.05). This attention was also shorter in earlier autumn (11.0 +/- 0.5 min) and longer in late autumn (13.1 +/- 0.8 min) (P < 0.05). Relative to sire breed-grazing system, Nellore calves raised intensively did take longer to stand and to suckle after birth as compared to crossbred calves also raised intensively (P < 0.01). However, grazing system did not affect (P > 0.05) any behaviour variable studied. As regard to sex differences, female calves did take less (P < 0.01) time to suckle after standing than male calves. Results showed that even purebred or crossbred Bos indicus calves in subtropical environmental need extra care when born on rainy days, especially during the first hours of the day. (C) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.