A three-regime model of speculative behaviour: modelling the evolution of the S&P 500 composite index

We examine whether a three-regime model that allows for dormant, explosive and collapsing speculative behaviour can explain the dynamics of the S&P 500. We extend existing models of speculative behaviour by including a third regime that allows a bubble to grow at a steady rate, and propose abnormal volume as an indicator of the probable time of bubble collapse. We also examine the financial usefulness of the three-regime model by studying a trading rule formed using inferences from it, whose use leads to higher Sharpe ratios and end of period wealth than from employing existing models or a buy-and-hold strategy.

Deciphering the weathering processes using environmental mineralogy and geochemistry: Towards an integrated model of laterite and podzol genesis in the Upper Amazon Basin

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Analysis of effectiveness of three forest interventionist techniques and proposal of a new and integrated model of forest restoration

We assessed the efficacy of three different forest intervention techniques, in terms of phytosociological and edaphic responses, that were implemented in 2007. In a farm where trees are planted and managed for cellulose production as well as set aside for environmental conservation, four stands were analysed: three of them were considered degraded and were managed using different intervention techniques (transposition, perch, and abandonment), and a fourth stand comprising pristine vegetation was considered a control (reference). Floristic and phytosociology data were collected in three 10 × 10 m plots established in each stand. Also, a total of 48 soil samples were collected to analyse physical and chemical attributes of the topsoil for the different stands. In terms of biodiversity, all the treatments showed significantly lower values when compared to the reference area. However, the soils in all the treatment and reference stands are similar in terms of physical and chemical attributes. Taking into account the specificities of each restoration technique, we verified that the integrated use of a set of management practices, constituted by the (1) abandonment of the area and (2) following a selective killing of the eucalyptus, is the most suitable and promising model to provide fast and effective restoration in terms of environmental indicators.

Towards a Model of Information Systems User Competency

The ability to utilize information systems (IS) effectively is becoming a necessity for business professionals. However, individuals differ in their abilities to use IS effectively, with some achieving exceptional performance in IS use and others being unable to do so. Therefore, developing a set of skills and attributes to achieve IS user competency, or the ability to realize the fullest potential and the greatest performance from IS use, is important. Various constructs have been identified in the literature to describe IS users with regard to their intentions to use IS and their frequency of IS usage, but studies to describe the relevant characteristics associated with highly competent IS users, or those who have achieved IS user competency, are lacking. This research develops a model of IS user competency by using the Repertory Grid Technique to identify a broad set of characteristics of highly competent IS users. A qualitative analysis was carried out to identify categories and sub-categories of these characteristics. Then, based on the findings, a subset of the model of IS user competency focusing on the IS-specific factors – domain knowledge of and skills in IS, willingness to try and to explore IS, and perception of IS value – was developed and validated using the survey approach. The survey findings suggest that all three factors are relevant and important to IS user competency, with willingness to try and to explore IS being the most significant factor. This research generates a rich set of factors explaining IS user competency, such as perception of IS value. The results not only highlight characteristics that can be fostered in IS users to improve their performance with IS use, but also present research opportunities for IS training and potential hiring criteria for IS users in organizations.

'Defending the rights'. An integrated model of collective action for "public water" in Italy

In many communities, supplying water for the people is a huge task and the fact that this essential service can be carried out by the private sector respecting the right to water, is a debated issue. This dissertation investigates the mechanisms through which a 'perceived rights violation' - which represents a specific form of perceived injustice which derives from the violation of absolute moral principles – can promote collective action. Indeed, literature on morality and collective action suggests that even if many people apparently sustain high moral principles (like human rights), only a minority decides to act in order to defend them. Taking advantage of the political situation in Italy, and the recent mobilization for "public water" we hypothesized that, because of its "sacred value", the perceived violation of the right to water facilitates identification with the social movement and activism. Through five studies adopting qualitative and quantitative methods, we confirmed our hypotheses demonstrating that the perceived violation of the right to water can sustain activism and it can influence vote intentions at the referendum for 'public water'. This path to collective action coexists with other 'classical' predictors of collective action, like instrumental factors (personal advantages, efficacy beliefs) and anger. The perceived rights violation can derive both from personal values (i.e. universalism) and external factors (i.e. a mobilization campaign). Furthermore, we demonstrated that it is possible to enhance the perceived violation of the right to water and anger through a specifically designed communication campaign. The final chapter summarizes the main findings and discusses the results, suggesting some innovative line of research for collective action literature.

A probabilistic switch model of information flow in social networks: Application for virtual circuits to organizational design

Network building and exchange of information by people within networks is crucial to the innovation process. Contrary to older models, in social networks the flow of information is noncontinuous and nonlinear. There are critical barriers to information flow that operate in a problematic manner. New models and new analytic tools are needed for these systems. This paper introduces the concept of virtual circuits and draws on recent concepts of network modelling and design to introduce a probabilistic switch theory that can be described using matrices. It can be used to model multistep information flow between people within organisational networks, to provide formal definitions of efficient and balanced networks and to describe distortion of information as it passes along human communication channels. The concept of multi-dimensional information space arises naturally from the use of matrices. The theory and the use of serial diagonal matrices have applications to organisational design and to the modelling of other systems. It is hypothesised that opinion leaders or creative individuals are more likely to emerge at information-rich nodes in networks. A mathematical definition of such nodes is developed and it does not invariably correspond with centrality as defined by early work on networks.

Using participant or non-participant observation to explain information behaviour

Cooper, J., Lewis, R. & Urquhart, C. (2004). Using participant or non-participant observation to explain information behaviour. Information Research, 9(4). Retrieved August 3, 2006 from http://informationr.net/ir/9-4/paper184.html Sponsorship: AHRC (Cooper).

Testing the 'photoinhibition' model of coral bleaching using chemical inhibitors

Explants of the hard coral Seriatopora hystrix were exposed to sublethal concentrations of the herbicide diuron DCMU (N'-(3,4-dichlorophenyl,-N,N-dimethylurea)) and the heavy metal copper. Pulse amplitude modulated (PAM) chlorophyll fluorescence techniques were used to assess the effects on the photosynthetic efficiency of the algal symbionts in the tissue (in Symbio), and chlorophyll fluorescence and counts of symbiotic algae (normalised to surface area) were used to assess the extent of coral bleaching. At 30 mug DCMU l(-1), there was a reduction in both the maximum effective quantum yield (DeltaF/F-m') and maximum potential quantum yield (F-v/F-m) of the algal symbionts in symbio. Corals subsequently lost their algal symbionts and discoloured (bleached), especially on their upper sunlight-exposed surfaces. At the same DCMU concentration but under low light (5% of growth irradiance), there was a marked reduction in DeltaF/F-m' but only a slight reduction in F-v/F-m and slight loss of algae. Loss of algal symbionts was also noted after a 7 d exposure to concentrations as low as 10 mug DCMU l(-1) under normal growth irradiance, and after 14 d exposure to 10 mug DCMU l(-1) under reduced irradiance. Collectively the results indicate that DCMU-induced bleaching is caused by a light-dependent photoinactivation of algal symbionts, and that bleaching occurs when F-v/F-n, (measured 2 h after sunset) is reduced to a value of less than or equal to 0.6. Elevated copper concentrations (60 mug Cu l(-1) for 10 h) also induced a rapid bleaching in S. hystrix but without affecting the quantum yield of the algae in symbio. Tests with isolated algae indicated that substantially higher concentrations (300 mug Cu l(-1) for 8 h) were needed to significantly reduce the quantum yield. Thus, copper-induced bleaching occurs without affecting the algal photosynthesis and may be related to effects on the host (animal). It is argued that warm-water bleaching of corals resembles both types of chemically induced bleaching, suggesting the need for an integrated model of coral bleaching involving the effect of temperature on both host (coral) and algal symbionts.

Geburtenentwicklung und gesellschaftliche Struktur

Declining birthrates are causing problems on different levels of societal structure. The much discussed necessity to restructure pension-systems is only one part of a much bigger problem our society faces. There are numerous scientific theories and studies on the causes and resulting problems of declining birthrates. The results of these are not easily comparable and relatively unconnected. The aim of this dissertation is to discuss them within a new frame. Starting with Hartmut Esser´s Theory of Rational Choice and using other modifications of rational decision making theory (i.e. microeconomic modelling, game theory etc.) a new theoretical position as well as an integrated model of fertility behaviour is developed. In this frame the probable causes of declining birth rates are discussed with respect to situational factors (logic of situation) as well as decision-immanent factors (logic of selection). The model is completed by an extensive discussion of the resulting societal changes (logic of aggregation).

Efficiency analysis of information technology and online social networks management : an integrated DEA-Model assessment

This paper analyses the relationship between productive efficiency and online-social-networks (OSN) in Spanish telecommunications firms. A data-envelopment-analysis (DEA) is used and several indicators of business ?social Media? activities are incorporated. A super-efficiency analysis and bootstrapping techniques are performed to increase the model?s robustness and accuracy. Then, a logistic regression model is applied to characterise factors and drivers of good performance in OSN. Results reveal the company?s ability to absorb and utilise OSNs as a key factor in improving the productive efficiency. This paper presents a model for assessing the strategic performance of the presence and activity in OSN.

Examination of social demographic status, disease status, health behaviours and quality of life in older Australians using the theory of planned behaviour model

The increase of life expectancy worldwide during the last three decades has increased age-related disability leading to the risk of loss of quality of life. How to improve quality of life including physical health and mental health for older people and optimize their life potential has become an important health issue. This study used the Theory of Planned Behaviour Model to examine factors influencing health behaviours, and the relationship with quality of life. A cross-sectional mailed survey of 1300 Australians over 50 years was conducted at the beginning of 2009, with 730 completed questionnaires returned (response rate 63%). Preliminary analysis reveals that physiological changes of old age, especially increasing waist circumference and co morbidity was closely related to health status, especially worse physical health summary score. Physical activity was the least adherent behaviour among the respondents compared to eating healthy food and taking medication regularly as prescribed. Increasing number of older people living alone with co morbidity of disease may be the barriers that influence their attitude and self control toward physical activity. A multidisciplinary and integrated approach including hospital and non hospital care is required to provide appropriate services and facilities toward older people.

Extending Alexander’s ecological dominance-social competition model : information behavior adaptation

Alexander’s Ecological Dominance and Social Competition (EDSC) model currently provides the most comprehensive overview of human traits in the development of a theory of human evolution and sociality (Alexander, 1990; Finn, Geary & Ward, 2005; Irons, 2005). His model provides a basis for explaining the evolution of human socio-cognitive abilities. Our paper examines the extension of Alexander’s model to incorporate the human trait of information behavior in synergy with ecological dominance and social competition as a human socio-cognitive competence. This paper discusses the various interdisciplinary perspectives exploring how evolution has shaped information behavior and why information behavior is emerging as an important human socio-cognitive competence. This paper outlines these issues, including the extension of Spink and Currier’s (2006a,b) evolution of information behavior model towards a more integrated understanding of how information behaviors have evolved (Spink & Cole, 2006).