Economic shocks and crime: evidence from the crash of ponzi schemes

In November 2008, Colombian authorities dismantled a network of Ponzi schemes, making hundreds of thousands of investors lose tens of millions of dollars throughout the country. Using original data on the geographical incidence of the Ponzi schemes, this paper estimates the impact of their break down on crime. We find that the crash of Ponzi schemes differentially exacerbated crime in affected districts. Confirming the intuition of the standard economic model of crime, this effect is only present in places with relatively weak judicial and law enforcement institutions, and with little access to consumption smoothing mechanisms such as microcredit. In addition, we show that, with the exception of economically-motivated felonies such as robbery, violent crime is not affected by the negative shock.

The use of remotely sensed rainfall for managing drought risk: a case study of weather index insurance in Zambia

Remotely sensed rainfall is increasingly being used to manage climate-related risk in gauge sparse regions. Applications based on such data must make maximal use of the skill of the methodology in order to avoid doing harm by providing misleading information. This is especially challenging in regions, such as Africa, which lack gauge data for validation. In this study, we show how calibrated ensembles of equally likely rainfall can be used to infer uncertainty in remotely sensed rainfall estimates, and subsequently in assessment of drought. We illustrate the methodology through a case study of weather index insurance (WII) in Zambia. Unlike traditional insurance, which compensates proven agricultural losses, WII pays out in the event that a weather index is breached. As remotely sensed rainfall is used to extend WII schemes to large numbers of farmers, it is crucial to ensure that the indices being insured are skillful representations of local environmental conditions. In our study we drive a land surface model with rainfall ensembles, in order to demonstrate how aggregation of rainfall estimates in space and time results in a clearer link with soil moisture, and hence a truer representation of agricultural drought. Although our study focuses on agricultural insurance, the methodological principles for application design are widely applicable in Africa and elsewhere.

Public policy for pensions, health and sickness insurance

Includes bibliography

Public policy for pensions, health and sickness insurance: potential lessons from Sweden for Latin America

Includes bibliography

Heterogeneous Beliefs and the Demand for D&O Insurance by Listed Companies

This paper introduces a new rationale for the existence of “Directors’ and Officers’” (D&O) insurance. We use a model with volatile stock markets where shareholders design compensation schemes that incentivize managers to stimulate short-term increases in stock prices that do not maximize long run stock market value. We show that D&O insurance provides a convenient instrument for the initial shareholders of a company to take advantage of differences in beliefs between insiders and outsiders in capital markets. The empirical results support the idea that both the insurance coverage and the premium are higher in the presence of new shareholders and volatile markets. The results prove robust in various empirical model specifications.

Principles of a Two-Tier European Deposit (Re-)Insurance System. CEPS Policy Brief No. 287, 17 April 2013.

There is general agreement that banking supervision and resolution have to be organised at the same level. It is often argued, however, that there is no need to tackle deposit insurance because it is too politically sensitive. This note proposes to apply the principles of subsidiarity and re-insurance to deposit insurance: Existing national deposit guarantee schemes (DGSs) would continue to operate much as before (with only minimal standards set by an EU directive), but they would be required to take out re-insurance against risks that would be too large to be covered by them. A European Reinsurance Fund (EReIF) would provide this reinsurance financed by premia paid by the national DGSs, just as any reinsurance company does in the private sector. The European Fund would pay out only in case of large losses. This ‘deductible’ would provide the national authorities with the proper incentives, but the reinsurance cover would stabilize depositor confidence even in the case of large shocks. Ideally the national DGSs would be responsible also for resolution. Experience has shown banking systems are more stable if deposit insurers are also responsible for resolution. The approach proposed here could thus be also used to design the ‘Single Resolution Mechanism’ (SRM) which is being discussed as a complement to the ‘Single Supervisory Mechanism’ (SSM). It will of course take time to build up the funding for such a reinsurance fund. This approach is thus not meant to deal with legacy problems from the current crisis.

Estimating losses in teleportation schemes using the phenomenological operator approach to dissipation in cavity quantum electrodynamics

In this paper, we estimate the losses during teleportation processes requiring either two high-Q cavities or a single bimodal cavity. The estimates were carried out using the phenomenological operator approach introduced by de Almeida et al. [Phys. Rev. A 62, 033815 (2000)].

HORMONAL RESPONSES TO DIFFERENT RESISTANCE EXERCISE SCHEMES OF SIMILAR TOTAL VOLUME

Uchida, MC, Crewther, BT, Ugrinowitsch, C, Bacurau, RFP, Moriscot, AS, and Aoki, MS. J Strength Cond Res 23(7): 2003-2008, 2009-This study assessed the effect of different resistance exercise scheme (RES) designs of similar total of load lifted on the responses of testosterone, cortisol, and creatine kinase (CK). Twenty-seven healthy males performed 1 of 4 bench press workouts described by the 1 repetition maximum (1RM) load: 4 sets of maximum repetitions at 50%-1RM (50%-1RM RES), 5 sets of maximum repetitions at 75%-1RM (75%-1RM RES), 10 sets of maximum repetitions at 90%-1RM (90%1RM RES), or 8 sets of maximum repetitions at 110%-1RM (110%-1RM RES). Each RES was equated by the total volume of load lifted (repetitions x sets x load). Blood samples, collected pre-exercise (Pre) and post-exercise (Post) at 1 and 24 hours (24 h), were analyzed for total and free testosterone, total cortisol, and CK. In general, testosterone and cortisol showed little change within or between the different RES (p > 0.05), possibly because of the relatively low volume lifted and/ or the small muscle mass activated by the bench press exercise. Cortisol was elevated after the 75%-1RM RES at the Post sample, with this response also exceeding the other RES (p < 0.05). The 24 h CK response was also elevated after the 75%-1RM RES (p < 0.05), thereby suggesting greater training strain for the same volume of load. These results confirm previous recommendations regarding the prescription of resistance exercise and the importance of total volume as a stimulus for activating the endocrine system and achieving long-term adaptation.

SALIVARY HORMONE AND IMMUNE RESPONSES TO THREE RESISTANCE EXERCISE SCHEMES IN ELITE FEMALE ATHLETES

Nunes, JA, Crewther, BT, Ugrinowitsch, C, Tricoli, V, Viveiros, L, de Rose Jr, D, and Aoki, MS. Salivary hormone and immune responses to three resistance exercise schemes in elite female athletes J Strength Cond Res 25(8): 2322-2327, 2011-This study examined the salivary hormone and immune responses of elite female athletes to 3 different resistance exercise schemes. Fourteen female basketball players each performed an endurance scheme (ES-4 sets of 12 reps, 60% of 1 repetition maximum (1RM) load, 1-minute rest periods), a strength-hypertrophy scheme (SHS-1 set of 5RM, 1 set of 4RM, 1 set of 3RM, 1 set of 2RM, and 1set of 1RM with 3-minute rest periods, followed by 3 sets of 10RM with 2-minute rest periods) and a power scheme (PS-3 sets of 10 reps, 50% 1RM load, 3-minute rest periods) using the same exercises (bench press, squat, and biceps curl). Saliva samples were collected at 07:30 hours, pre-exercise (Pre) at 09:30 hours, postexercise (Post), and at 17:30 hours. Matching samples were also taken on a nonexercising control day. The samples were analyzed for testosterone, cortisol (C), and immunoglobulin A concentrations. The total volume of load lifted differed among the 3 schemes (SHS > ES > PS, p < 0.05). Postexercise C concentrations increased after all schemes, compared to control values (p < 0.05). In the SHS, the postexercise C response was also greater than pre-exercise data (p < 0.05). The current findings confirm that high-volume resistance exercise schemes can stimulate greater C secretion because of higher metabolic demand. In terms of practical applications, acute changes in C may be used to evaluate the metabolic demands of different resistance exercise schemes, or as a tool for monitoring training strain.

Online Mammographic Images Database for Development and Comparison of CAD Schemes

Considering the difficulties in finding good-quality images for the development and test of computer-aided diagnosis (CAD), this paper presents a public online mammographic images database free for all interested viewers and aimed to help develop and evaluate CAD schemes. The digitalization of the mammographic images is made with suitable contrast and spatial resolution for processing purposes. The broad recuperation system allows the user to search for different images, exams, or patient characteristics. Comparison with other databases currently available has shown that the presented database has a sufficient number of images, is of high quality, and is the only one to include a functional search system.

A Geometric Approach for Turbo Decoding of Reed-Solomon Codes in QAM Modulation Schemes

This work studies the turbo decoding of Reed-Solomon codes in QAM modulation schemes for additive white Gaussian noise channels (AWGN) by using a geometric approach. Considering the relations between the Galois field elements of the Reed-Solomon code and the symbols combined with their geometric dispositions in the QAM constellation, a turbo decoding algorithm, based on the work of Chase and Pyndiah, is developed. Simulation results show that the performance achieved is similar to the one obtained with the pragmatic approach with binary decomposition and analysis.

Pricing farm-level agricultural insurance: a Bayesian approach

This paper applies Hierarchical Bayesian Models to price farm-level yield insurance contracts. This methodology considers the temporal effect, the spatial dependence and spatio-temporal models. One of the major advantages of this framework is that an estimate of the premium rate is obtained directly from the posterior distribution. These methods were applied to a farm-level data set of soybean in the State of the Parana (Brazil), for the period between 1994 and 2003. The model selection was based on a posterior predictive criterion. This study improves considerably the estimation of the fair premium rates considering the small number of observations.

Bayesian ratemaking procedure of crop insurance contracts with skewed distribution

Over the years, crop insurance programs became the focus of agricultural policy in the USA, Spain, Mexico, and more recently in Brazil. Given the increasing interest in insurance, accurate calculation of the premium rate is of great importance. We address the crop-yield distribution issue and its implications in pricing an insurance contract considering the dynamic structure of the data and incorporating the spatial correlation in the Hierarchical Bayesian framework. Results show that empirical (insurers) rates are higher in low risk areas and lower in high risk areas. Such methodological improvement is primarily important in situations of limited data.

Spatio-temporal modeling of agricultural yield data with an application to pricing crop insurance contracts

This article presents a statistical model of agricultural yield data based on a set of hierarchical Bayesian models that allows joint modeling of temporal and spatial autocorrelation. This method captures a comprehensive range of the various uncertainties involved in predicting crop insurance premium rates as opposed to the more traditional ad hoc, two-stage methods that are typically based on independent estimation and prediction. A panel data set of county-average yield data was analyzed for 290 counties in the State of Parana (Brazil) for the period of 1990 through 2002. Posterior predictive criteria are used to evaluate different model specifications. This article provides substantial improvements in the statistical and actuarial methods often applied to the calculation of insurance premium rates. These improvements are especially relevant to situations where data are limited.

Parametric and nonparametric statistical modelling of crop yield: implications for pricing crop insurance contracts

This article considers alternative methods to calculate the fair premium rate of crop insurance contracts based on county yields. The premium rate was calculated using parametric and nonparametric approaches to estimate the conditional agricultural yield density. These methods were applied to a data set of county yield provided by the Statistical and Geography Brazilian Institute (IBGE), for the period of 1990 through 2002, for soybean, corn and wheat, in the State of Paran. In this article, we propose methodological alternatives to pricing crop insurance contracts resulting in more accurate premium rates in a situation of limited data.